Author Topic: BB: Predictions of who will win the 2010 Division III National Championship  (Read 11373 times)

Offline Beaconville

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Honestly I think that the Johns Hopkins vs Heidelberg game in the first round might be the Championship game.  I really think that the team who wins that game has the inside track to the title.  That being said, I think Heidelberg wins that game and the Championship.

As for UMB I would love to see them win it all but I am a realist and I say they win the first game (Linfield) and then go 0-2 in the next 2.

Offline d3baseballnut

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Honestly I think that the Johns Hopkins vs Heidelberg game in the first round might be the Championship game.  I really think that the team who wins that game has the inside track to the title.  That being said, I think Heidelberg wins that game and the Championship.

As for UMB I would love to see them win it all but I am a realist and I say they win the first game (Linfield) and then go 0-2 in the next 2.

What do you like about Heidelberg that makes you think that they win that game? curious.

Offline RSSmith

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Honestly I think that the Johns Hopkins vs Heidelberg game in the first round might be the Championship game.  I really think that the team who wins that game has the inside track to the title.  That being said, I think Heidelberg wins that game and the Championship.

As for UMB I would love to see them win it all but I am a realist and I say they win the first game (Linfield) and then go 0-2 in the next 2.

I agree with your analysis, but (as a Hopkins homer) will take the other side of the outcome coin.  I didn't do a lot of research, but I couldn't find any instance of a team losing in the first round and coming back to win the tournament.  In the last ten years or so, the ultimate champion won both Rounds 1 and 2.  St. Thomas lost in Round 3 last year and came back to win it.  Chapman in 2003 lost in Round 3 and came back to win it.  Hopkins in 2008 lost in Round 3 and came back to get as close as possible without winning it.  Most recent winners have come from the winners bracket.  Every team should be pulling out all stops to win their first game.

Bottom line, I pick Hopkins to win on Tuesday over Linfield.
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Offline Hobbesy

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I got Cortland and IW dropping the first two games...Johns Hopkins and Stevens Point in the winners bracket final.  Hopkins wins that game but "throws away" their next game.  A sold out crowd comes on Tuesday to cheer on the home-standers and the Point doesn't disappoint in getting to the title game.  Both teams throw the kitchen sink at each other but a big sixth inning for Hopkins gives them lead and win but not before a couple of ninth inning walks bring back bad nightmares for all Hopkins followers  :o

Final four teams are Heidelberg, Shenandoah, Johns Hopkins and Stevens Point


Offline Beaconville

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Honestly I think that the Johns Hopkins vs Heidelberg game in the first round might be the Championship game.  I really think that the team who wins that game has the inside track to the title.  That being said, I think Heidelberg wins that game and the Championship.

As for UMB I would love to see them win it all but I am a realist and I say they win the first game (Linfield) and then go 0-2 in the next 2.

What do you like about Heidelberg that makes you think that they win that game? curious.

So glad that you asked-I was actually really bored at work the other day and did a ton of research on all teams in the tourney.  Here was my breakdown of these two teams.

Clearly both of these teams have amazing stats for most of their top players and their win/loss records speak for themselves so I figured that you have to look closer to such factors as strength of schedule, key wins/losses and conference and regional tournaments in order to give the best opinion.
Note-all rankings mentioned are based off d3baseball.com's latest rankings-
Johns Hopkins- (43-5) Strength of Schedule percentage .536
-Key Wins: 3/12 vs #26 Concordia (Ill.) 14-9
                  3/20 vs #20 Eastern Conn. 20-8
                  3/8   vs #24 Salisbury 4-2
                  5/23 vs #13 Kean 8-3
-Key Losses: No losses all year to a team with a losing record.
Obviously the record is impressive and Hopkins pretty much won every game this year that they were supposed to win, they really did not have a big upset loss on their record.  However, on the down side they do not play in a particularly strong conference, only 2 other teams in the CC had 20 wins or more.  Also, until the regional tournament where they beat Kean they had not defeated a ranked team since back in March in Arizona against EConn.  Also, again-aside from Kean they were the only other ranked team in their regional tourney.

Heidelberg- (40-6), Strength of Schedule percentage .555
-Key Wins: 3/6 vs #36 Carthage 3-1
                  3/20 vs #31 Adrian 5-3 & 9-1 also 5/20 9-8
                  4/17 vs #19 Marietta 15-14, also 5/14 12-11 also 5/15 9-0, and 5/22 6-2
-Key Losses: 4/10 vs Wilmington 11-0, opponent had final record of 7-29-1
Where I feel that Heidelberg jumps ahead of Johns Hopkins is that first off their strength of schedule is the highest of all 8 teams in the finals.  Next, they are riding an amazing 17 game winning streak that includes 4 wins over Marietta on the road.  They play in one of the best conferences in the country (5 teams in conference had more than 20 wins) and again they played in a very tough regional in which they went 3-0.  The only real question is that if they will have any "First World Series Jitters."  This is where the conference and schedule comes into play.  I think they take the game and will take the series.    


Offline Beaconville

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Honestly I think that the Johns Hopkins vs Heidelberg game in the first round might be the Championship game.  I really think that the team who wins that game has the inside track to the title.  That being said, I think Heidelberg wins that game and the Championship.

As for UMB I would love to see them win it all but I am a realist and I say they win the first game (Linfield) and then go 0-2 in the next 2.

What do you like about Heidelberg that makes you think that they win that game? curious.

So glad that you asked-I was actually really bored at work the other day and did a ton of research on all teams in the tourney.  Here was my breakdown of these two teams.

Clearly both of these teams have amazing stats for most of their top players and their win/loss records speak for themselves so I figured that you have to look closer to such factors as strength of schedule, key wins/losses and conference and regional tournaments in order to give the best opinion.
Note-all rankings mentioned are based off d3baseball.com's latest rankings-
Johns Hopkins- (43-5) Strength of Schedule percentage .536
-Key Wins: 3/12 vs #26 Concordia (Ill.) 14-9
                  3/20 vs #20 Eastern Conn. 20-8
                  3/8   vs #24 Salisbury 4-2
                  5/23 vs #13 Kean 8-3
-Key Losses: No losses all year to a team with a losing record.
Obviously the record is impressive and Hopkins pretty much won every game this year that they were supposed to win, they really did not have a big upset loss on their record.  However, on the down side they do not play in a particularly strong conference, only 2 other teams in the CC had 20 wins or more.  Also, until the regional tournament where they beat Kean they had not defeated a ranked team since back in March in Arizona against EConn.  Also, again-aside from Kean they were the only other ranked team in their regional tourney.

Heidelberg- (40-6), Strength of Schedule percentage .555
-Key Wins: 3/6 vs #36 Carthage 3-1
                  3/20 vs #31 Adrian 5-3 & 9-1 also 5/20 9-8
                  4/17 vs #19 Marietta 15-14, also 5/14 12-11 also 5/15 9-0, and 5/22 6-2
-Key Losses: 4/10 vs Wilmington 11-0, opponent had final record of 7-29-1
Where I feel that Heidelberg jumps ahead of Johns Hopkins is that first off their strength of schedule is the highest of all 8 teams in the finals.  Next, they are riding an amazing 17 game winning streak that includes 4 wins over Marietta on the road.  They play in one of the best conferences in the country (5 teams in conference had more than 20 wins) and again they played in a very tough regional in which they went 3-0.  The only real question is that if they will have any "First World Series Jitters."  This is where the conference and schedule comes into play.  I think they take the game and will take the series.    



Hopkins could have a little surprise for Heidelberg in SP Alex Eliopoulus.

.....or heidelberg could rock him. You never know.
I thought about that too and again Eliopoulus does have some amazing stats but he only made 2 starts this season against ranked teams.  I will concede that he did have an amazing game in his last start against #13 Kean (8 innings, 3 earned runs, 12 k's.) but in his only other start against a ranked team-#26 Concordia (Ill.) he had his worst outing of the year, only lasting 4 innings and giving up 6 earned runs.

Offline deloar

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1st I am a Berg fan, so I have my bias.  And I don't know much about a couple of the final 8.  My perception is that the Berg/JHU game could be a doozy.  I think either one of them could win the championship with UWSP being a 3rd possibility.

If Berg can beat JHU which will be the hump on the jitters factor, I think they could roll on through.  Many of their games in the OAC tournament and at the regional, they came back after being down.  Once of their star types players hits a stride, the other seem to get warmed up with them.

This first game will be a fun one no matter what.

Offline scscoach

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I'm picking Johns Hopkins but rooting for Cortland St.

Offline d3baseballnut

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Honestly I think that the Johns Hopkins vs Heidelberg game in the first round might be the Championship game.  I really think that the team who wins that game has the inside track to the title.  That being said, I think Heidelberg wins that game and the Championship.

As for UMB I would love to see them win it all but I am a realist and I say they win the first game (Linfield) and then go 0-2 in the next 2.

What do you like about Heidelberg that makes you think that they win that game? curious.

So glad that you asked-I was actually really bored at work the other day and did a ton of research on all teams in the tourney.  Here was my breakdown of these two teams.

Clearly both of these teams have amazing stats for most of their top players and their win/loss records speak for themselves so I figured that you have to look closer to such factors as strength of schedule, key wins/losses and conference and regional tournaments in order to give the best opinion.
Note-all rankings mentioned are based off d3baseball.com's latest rankings-
Johns Hopkins- (43-5) Strength of Schedule percentage .536
-Key Wins: 3/12 vs #26 Concordia (Ill.) 14-9
                  3/20 vs #20 Eastern Conn. 20-8
                  3/8   vs #24 Salisbury 4-2
                  5/23 vs #13 Kean 8-3
-Key Losses: No losses all year to a team with a losing record.
Obviously the record is impressive and Hopkins pretty much won every game this year that they were supposed to win, they really did not have a big upset loss on their record.  However, on the down side they do not play in a particularly strong conference, only 2 other teams in the CC had 20 wins or more.  Also, until the regional tournament where they beat Kean they had not defeated a ranked team since back in March in Arizona against EConn.  Also, again-aside from Kean they were the only other ranked team in their regional tourney.

Heidelberg- (40-6), Strength of Schedule percentage .555
-Key Wins: 3/6 vs #36 Carthage 3-1
                  3/20 vs #31 Adrian 5-3 & 9-1 also 5/20 9-8
                  4/17 vs #19 Marietta 15-14, also 5/14 12-11 also 5/15 9-0, and 5/22 6-2
-Key Losses: 4/10 vs Wilmington 11-0, opponent had final record of 7-29-1
Where I feel that Heidelberg jumps ahead of Johns Hopkins is that first off their strength of schedule is the highest of all 8 teams in the finals.  Next, they are riding an amazing 17 game winning streak that includes 4 wins over Marietta on the road.  They play in one of the best conferences in the country (5 teams in conference had more than 20 wins) and again they played in a very tough regional in which they went 3-0.  The only real question is that if they will have any "First World Series Jitters."  This is where the conference and schedule comes into play.  I think they take the game and will take the series.    



Hopkins could have a little surprise for Heidelberg in SP Alex Eliopoulus.

.....or heidelberg could rock him. You never know.
I thought about that too and again Eliopoulus does have some amazing stats but he only made 2 starts this season against ranked teams.  I will concede that he did have an amazing game in his last start against #13 Kean (8 innings, 3 earned runs, 12 k's.) but in his only other start against a ranked team-#26 Concordia (Ill.) he had his worst outing of the year, only lasting 4 innings and giving up 6 earned runs.

That is definitely one way to look at it.

But Eliopulous is a different pitcher today than he was 2 months ago. It's not really helpful to use those statistics.

Yes, Concordia was a poor start in terms of #'s....but do you really think that proves he cant pitch against big teams?? after what he did to Kean, Montclair St. Mary Washington, and Keene St?

I think there is enough proof there to throw away an Arizona game vs. Concordia 2 months ago. He has proven himself time and time again.

(Not to mention that there was a very questionable hit that was scored a hit in the Concordia game that could have been an error...this allowed 4 ER)

In his last 9 starts, he is 9-0  60.1 IP  48 H   14 ER   68 K  16 BB  ERA: 2.09



Offline RSSmith

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Honestly I think that the Johns Hopkins vs Heidelberg game in the first round might be the Championship game.  I really think that the team who wins that game has the inside track to the title.  That being said, I think Heidelberg wins that game and the Championship.

As for UMB I would love to see them win it all but I am a realist and I say they win the first game (Linfield) and then go 0-2 in the next 2.

What do you like about Heidelberg that makes you think that they win that game? curious.

So glad that you asked-I was actually really bored at work the other day and did a ton of research on all teams in the tourney.  Here was my breakdown of these two teams.

Clearly both of these teams have amazing stats for most of their top players and their win/loss records speak for themselves so I figured that you have to look closer to such factors as strength of schedule, key wins/losses and conference and regional tournaments in order to give the best opinion.
Note-all rankings mentioned are based off d3baseball.com's latest rankings-
Johns Hopkins- (43-5) Strength of Schedule percentage .536
-Key Wins: 3/12 vs #26 Concordia (Ill.) 14-9
                  3/20 vs #20 Eastern Conn. 20-8
                  3/8   vs #24 Salisbury 4-2
                  5/23 vs #13 Kean 8-3
-Key Losses: No losses all year to a team with a losing record.
Obviously the record is impressive and Hopkins pretty much won every game this year that they were supposed to win, they really did not have a big upset loss on their record.  However, on the down side they do not play in a particularly strong conference, only 2 other teams in the CC had 20 wins or more.  Also, until the regional tournament where they beat Kean they had not defeated a ranked team since back in March in Arizona against EConn.  Also, again-aside from Kean they were the only other ranked team in their regional tourney.

Heidelberg- (40-6), Strength of Schedule percentage .555
-Key Wins: 3/6 vs #36 Carthage 3-1
                  3/20 vs #31 Adrian 5-3 & 9-1 also 5/20 9-8
                  4/17 vs #19 Marietta 15-14, also 5/14 12-11 also 5/15 9-0, and 5/22 6-2
-Key Losses: 4/10 vs Wilmington 11-0, opponent had final record of 7-29-1
Where I feel that Heidelberg jumps ahead of Johns Hopkins is that first off their strength of schedule is the highest of all 8 teams in the finals.  Next, they are riding an amazing 17 game winning streak that includes 4 wins over Marietta on the road.  They play in one of the best conferences in the country (5 teams in conference had more than 20 wins) and again they played in a very tough regional in which they went 3-0.  The only real question is that if they will have any "First World Series Jitters."  This is where the conference and schedule comes into play.  I think they take the game and will take the series.    



Thanks for sharing your analysis.  The biggest hit on Hopkins this year is the fact that they have played 21 of their 48 games in the Centennial Conference.  I think the argument could be made that the CC is in the 30-40th percentile of D3 conferences by strength.  However, Hopkins was 21-0 in those games by an average score of 12-4, and in most of those games, the reserves were in by the 6th or 7th inning.  In the eight games that Hopkins has played since winning the conference tournament, they are 6-2 having outscored their opponents 56-32.  In that stretch, they split with Kean who was ranked #2 in the Mid-Atlantic Region, they split with Salisbury who was ranked #2 in the South Region, they beat Mary Washington who was ranked #3 in the South, they beat Keystone who was ranked #5 in the Mid-Atlantic and they beat Rowan who was ranked #6 in the Mid-Atlantic.  In the two losses, none of Hopkins top three starters pitched.  If you look at the three games Hopkins lost in Arizona, Harbeck (JHU) went 7.1 against Murrey (Macalester) and gave up no runs before coming out, and Eagleson (JHU) pitched one inning against Simpson, and that was it for the top three in losing efforts.  Heidelberg will likely face Alex Eliopoulos who, in his last two starts, beat Moravian and Kean in the Mid-Atlantic Regional.  In those two games, he pitched a total of 13 innings.  Of the 39 outs, he had 16 strikeouts (12 against Kean) and one walk, 19 ground ball outs, a couple of fly outs, a pickoff and one caught stealing.  Hopkins won 4 of 5 in the Mid-Atlantic Regional.

Heidelberg obviously has Marietta’s (ranked #3 in the Mideast Region) number.  In their last eight games, Heidelberg has beaten them three times.  They’ve also beaten Adrian who was ranked #5 in the Mideast, and unranked Penn State-Behrend, Muskingum, and Mt. Union twice.  Heidelberg took advantage of the winners’ bracket in a 7-team regional, having to win only three games to win the tournament.

I would be very confident in saying that Hopkins would win two of three from Heidelberg, but anything can happen in a single game, and I think you’re right that tomorrow’s matchup will be not only a very important game, but also an incredibly good matchup between the two best teams in the tournament.  Good luck to both of them.
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Offline BoBo

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I got Cortland and IW dropping the first two games...Johns Hopkins and Stevens Point in the winners bracket final.  Hopkins wins that game but "throws away" their next game.  A sold out crowd comes on Tuesday to cheer on the home-standers and the Point doesn't disappoint in getting to the title game.  Both teams throw the kitchen sink at each other but a big sixth inning for Hopkins gives them lead and win but not before a couple of ninth inning walks bring back bad nightmares for all Hopkins followers  :o

Final four teams are Heidelberg, Shenandoah, Johns Hopkins and Stevens Point

After reading the following on a different thread...:

I'll be there on Saturday to see some WS baseball, even though U-Dub-Dub fell short of making the trip.

...throwing the kitchen sink at each other may not be possible. It appears the KitchenSink will be appearing at Fox Cities Stadium on Saturday only  ;)  ;D  :D !!

There’s two times of the year for me – football season, and waiting for football season.

Offline diviiibbjunkie

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linfield

Offline d3baseballnut

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I got Cortland and IW dropping the first two games...Johns Hopkins and Stevens Point in the winners bracket final.  Hopkins wins that game but "throws away" their next game.  A sold out crowd comes on Tuesday to cheer on the home-standers and the Point doesn't disappoint in getting to the title game.  Both teams throw the kitchen sink at each other but a big sixth inning for Hopkins gives them lead and win but not before a couple of ninth inning walks bring back bad nightmares for all Hopkins followers  :o

Final four teams are Heidelberg, Shenandoah, Johns Hopkins and Stevens Point

After reading the following on a different thread...:

I'll be there on Saturday to see some WS baseball, even though U-Dub-Dub fell short of making the trip.

...throwing the kitchen sink at each other may not be possible. It appears the KitchenSink will be appearing at Fox Cities Stadium on Saturday only  ;)  ;D  :D !!



Thats a low blow hobbsey....low blow. Think before saying some things.

Offline Hobbesy

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Haha!  I apologize if I offended anyone...nicely done though Bo Bo...should be a great tournament

Offline d3baseballnut

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