Author Topic: Empire Eight  (Read 145919 times)

Offline Roundball999

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Re: Empire Eight
« Reply #495 on: January 20, 2014, 06:34:43 pm »
Good questions.  That's one of the reasons I referenced Massey Ratings.  The D3hoops.com and USA Today Coaches polls are put together by very knowledgeable hoops people but are still subject to the specific team knowledge, biases and preferences of those polled.  That said, I think both polls do a great job with the very difficult job of finding and ranking the top 25 out of 400 plus D3 teams.  The Massey Ratings instead take a statistical approach which accounts for strength of schedule, quality of opponents, with some adjustments for home court advantage.  It's formulaic in a way that rolls throughout the rankings, in the sense that if a team you've beaten gets beaten by a weak opponent, your rating will likely drop as well.

At least, that's how I think it works.  I've followed it for several years now and it seems to me to be surprising accurate.  Not saying its better than the other polls, but pretty good too.  It's fun in that it will use its formulas to predict scores for specific games, again I've found it surprisingly accurate.  Of course in any given game it may not be even close, but that's basketball for you.  Matchups, rivalries, injuries and illnesses and lots of other factors will screw up any statistical approach.

See http://masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cbw2014&sub=11620 and click on a few of the links for explanations of their ratings methods.

Bombers798891

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Re: Empire Eight
« Reply #496 on: January 27, 2014, 11:24:08 am »
Bombers pick up two wins, including a huge victory over the Wick. Ithaca now tied with the Hawks for the top spot in the E8. Elmira lurking, but the 27-point loss to St. John Fisher makes me think they're not on the level of those two, though we'll learn a lot on Tuesday.

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Re: Empire Eight
« Reply #497 on: February 03, 2014, 02:31:32 pm »
I think, improved records aside, we're back to a two-team race in the E8. Who gets home court if both teams win out?

Elmira's 5-2 in conference, but they've yet to play Hartwick or Stevens, and have only played Ithaca once. I see them closing 2-5 on the year, and finishing at .500. I just don't see a lot of encouraging results—their two-point win over Fisher was offset by a 27-point loss. Fisher's going to steal that final spot

Final predictions:

Ithaca 13-1. Four home games and an Alfred team they beat by 43 remain. No Hartwick or Stevens.
Hartwick 13-1. I think they beat Stevens at home
Stevens 9-5. Sweeping Elmira and handling Naz gets them the three-seed
Fisher 8-6. Should handle Naz, Alfred, and Utica. Do not see them winning at IC, after losing at home to them by 20.


Offline 7express

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Re: Empire Eight
« Reply #498 on: February 21, 2014, 02:06:19 pm »
Assuming Hartwick & Ithaca both finish with wins this week, how would they break that tie since both their losses were to each other??  Coin flip??  Region SOS??  Overall wins??  Overall road wins??  Other??

Elmira is probably going to be the last team out.  Already lost to Stevens & Hartwick at home and have to go on the road back-to-back to play them.
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Bombers798891

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Re: Empire Eight
« Reply #499 on: February 24, 2014, 10:30:22 am »
Assuming Hartwick & Ithaca both finish with wins this week, how would they break that tie since both their losses were to each other??  Coin flip??  Region SOS??  Overall wins??  Overall road wins??  Other??

Elmira is probably going to be the last team out.  Already lost to Stevens & Hartwick at home and have to go on the road back-to-back to play them.

Somehow, the Bombers are the #1 seed in this tournament. Congrats to them. They continue to largely dominate the conference (84-8 regular season record over the last six years). Hartwick will be a tough out though. I can't see Ithaca losing to Fisher, who they obliterated at home a few weeks ago. The Bombers outrebounded the Cardinals 48-24 at IC and 45-27 at Fisher, so there may be legitimate size issues in the matchup.

The bigger question is, does the E8 get two bids if IC wins the tournament? I'd have to think, if the Bombers get to the final and lose to the Wick, that they'd get in, given that they're currently the #1 seed in the east

Offline 7express

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Re: Empire Eight
« Reply #500 on: February 24, 2014, 02:07:36 pm »
I think Ithaca gets in regardless.  Hartwick right now I'd say no, but if things break their way, they could sneak in.

Speaking of Ithaca, are they able to host tourney games this year??
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Offline Roundball999

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Re: Empire Eight
« Reply #501 on: February 25, 2014, 01:09:33 pm »
If they don't win the AQ, I would say Hartwick has a good chance of an at large (Pool C) bid barring a lot of upsets in the league tournaments.  Hartwick was #5 in latest East regional rankings, but 3 of the teams in front of them are favored to win the Pool A AQ spots.  There are 20 Pool C bids available nationwide for the 8 regions, an average of 2.5 per region.  NYU probably gets one ahead of Hartwick but Hartwick would be next in line, again barring league tournament upsets.  If Ithaca or Vassar especially are upset in leagues, then they may snap up Pool C spots leaving little room for Hartwick.

Offline 7express

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Re: Empire Eight
« Reply #502 on: March 03, 2014, 02:20:45 am »
Even with the loss to Stevens on Friday night, Hartwick was the big winner this weekend as 3 of the top 4 East teams won auto bids and I don't think NYU will jump them, so Hartwick should be the first East team on the board when the selections start.
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Bombers798891

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Re: Empire Eight
« Reply #503 on: March 04, 2014, 11:00:06 am »
So Ithaca's first-round opponent, Sage, lost by 51 to the Wick. They also lost to Elmira, and to a Utica team that went 7-18, and 2-12 in the E8. Many of their non-conference wins look pretty unimpressive as well (A Southern Vermont team that lost 70-17 to Fisher, a 7-18 RPI team that lost to Utica, a 1-24 Bard team that lost to Nazareth)

Ithaca topped the regular-season Sky winner, Farmingdale State, 75-60. So we've got a bunch of points of reference for comparison, and honestly, I just don't see how IC loses this game, barring the team just going ice cold or something of that sort. The E8/Sky games show me there's not a lot of heft behind Sage's 10-4 record there, and many of the teams they beat non-conference are nowhere near Ithaca's caliber.

Bombers win by 15-20

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Re: Empire Eight
« Reply #504 on: March 08, 2014, 02:05:04 am »
That was the most dominating half in the history of Ithaca College women's basketball.

The Bombers suffer through a first half of cold shooting and are tied 21-21 with Sage at the break. But the 2nd half is a different story, as Ithaca outscores Sage 46-9. Sage goes the final 9:43 without scoring. I don't think I've ever seen something like that in a game matching two relatively good teams.

I don't think IC sleepwalked at all, as they simply couldn't hit a shot early, going 8-for-32 in the first half. The 2nd half though, was just a flawless performance.

IC sports info, in the understatment of the decade, calls the 2nd half showing "solid"  ;)

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Re: Empire Eight
« Reply #505 on: March 11, 2014, 10:52:48 am »
Much as I suspected earlier in the year, the Bombers were a Sweet 16-caliber team driven down in the rankings (fairly) for playing an insane early-season schedule, who then failed to climb up the rankings due to playing in a relatively weak conference.

While there's understandable skepticism about how the EB fares nationally, this squad basically returned everyone from last year's Sweet 16 team, making this run hardly a surprise.

Have to say though, I think this year's squad might not make as much of a game for their Sweet 16 opponent. It's hard to overlook a 22-point loss, as well as the terrible offensive starts Ithaca has had in the NCAA's so far. But, we always remain hopeful

Offline ronk

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Re: Empire Eight
« Reply #506 on: March 11, 2014, 10:59:59 am »
Much as I suspected earlier in the year, the Bombers were a Sweet 16-caliber team driven down in the rankings (fairly) for playing an insane early-season schedule, who then failed to climb up the rankings due to playing in a relatively weak conference.

While there's understandable skepticism about how the EB fares nationally, this squad basically returned everyone from last year's Sweet 16 team, making this run hardly a surprise.

Have to say though, I think this year's squad might not make as much of a game for their Sweet 16 opponent. It's hard to overlook a 22-point loss, as well as the terrible offensive starts Ithaca has had in the NCAA's so far. But, we always remain hopeful

 2 pluses for Ithaca r that Amherst is w/0 their best player(injury) since that 1st game and it will be on a neutral court rather than the Amherst home court.

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Re: Empire Eight
« Reply #507 on: March 14, 2014, 08:53:46 pm »
The Bombers are onto the elite eight! A fantastic second half performance as Ithaca comes back from down nine. A triple-double from Mary Kate Tierney highlights the win. A first-ever trip beyond the Sweet 16 for the Bombers. Just a fantastic season for Ithaca

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Re: Empire Eight
« Reply #508 on: December 16, 2014, 10:45:18 am »
So I'm going to make a gripe.

How in the world is a 6-1 Ithaca behind an 8-2 Rochester in the hoops poll?

The Bombers absolutely WAXED Rochester at Rochester. They led 18-3 five minutes in and the game never got closer than 7. They led by 20 points midway through the second half. This early in the season, a wire-to-wire domination like that on the road should carry a lot of weight.

Ithaca's loss to JC at home obviously keeps them from the being in the top 25, and I know Rochester's schedule has been better than Ithaca's. But again, this wasn't some back and forth game that could have gone either way. If you're trailing by 20 points in the second half on your home floor, it's a little hard to justify that you're better than the team that handily beat you.

Offline Roundball999

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Re: Empire Eight
« Reply #509 on: December 16, 2014, 01:09:58 pm »
So I'm going to make a gripe.

How in the world is a 6-1 Ithaca behind an 8-2 Rochester in the hoops poll?

The Bombers absolutely WAXED Rochester at Rochester. They led 18-3 five minutes in and the game never got closer than 7. They led by 20 points midway through the second half. This early in the season, a wire-to-wire domination like that on the road should carry a lot of weight.

Ithaca's loss to JC at home obviously keeps them from the being in the top 25, and I know Rochester's schedule has been better than Ithaca's. But again, this wasn't some back and forth game that could have gone either way. If you're trailing by 20 points in the second half on your home floor, it's a little hard to justify that you're better than the team that handily beat you.

Actually, Rochester's SoS going forward appears to be much stronger but Massey says Ithaca has played the stronger schedule so far this season (38 vs. 108 to date; 156 vs. 32 going forward). I can only say that maybe the pollsters are thinking (appropriately) of an entire body of work, not just one head to head game.  But you'll give yourself a headache if you try to figure out the polls, especially this early in the season.