Author Topic: North Region Fan Poll  (Read 260146 times)

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2430 on: October 17, 2018, 11:52:57 pm »
I think the huge gap is between 1 and 2, both regionally and maybe even nationally (ok 2-3 nationally). Somehow people have become enamored with JCU because they stayed close to Mount for 59 minutes. JCU showed no ability to score in that game and I donít think Mt was ever in any real danger to lose that game. I think there are 1-2 other teams that could lose by 10-14 to Mt.

JCU absolutely had a chance to win. They were 1st and G with under 5 min to play.  They didnít get in, but it isnít correct to say Mount Union wasnít in danger.  It was defcon 2 at least.
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Offline USee

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2431 on: October 18, 2018, 12:08:08 am »
It's not correct to say there is a chasm between JCU and the rest of the North based on a 13 pt loss.
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Offline wally_wabash

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2432 on: October 18, 2018, 12:17:23 am »
It's not correct to say there is a chasm between JCU and the rest of the North based on a 13 pt loss.

It certainly is based on a full reading game and not simply a score margin that you keep quoting like youíre going to win something if you keep doing it.  You havenít answered the question posed earlier- who else on our list can predictably take Mount Union inside one minute with a chance to win?  And based on what? 
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Offline USee

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2433 on: October 18, 2018, 12:38:49 am »
It's not correct to say there is a chasm between JCU and the rest of the North based on a 13 pt loss.

It certainly is based on a full reading game and not simply a score margin that you keep quoting like youíre going to win something if you keep doing it.  You havenít answered the question posed earlier- who else on our list can predictably take Mount Union inside one minute with a chance to win?  And based on what?

No need to insult me Wally.  A full reading of the game includes the final minute of play. You don't get a pass for making the exact same mistake in the final minute you made in the first half (Berry sacked him earlier on the same blitz). In fact that's much, much worse. I watched the whole game and never had any worry Mt Union would win. A full reading of the game tells me Mt Union is a lot better than JCU and I think if they played again Mt wins by 3 Td's not just 2. A full reading of the game says JCU turned it over 4 times to Mt Union's zero. A full reading says Anthony Moeglin was 11-24 and gave up two fumbles for TD's, an INT in his own end of the field and couldn't make a play when he had a chance to affect the outcome at least 2, if not 3 times. I had absolutely no fear Mt Union would lose that game even when JCU got the ball with 1:44 left. In fact I would have given odds for a turnover vs a TD.

The question isn't who else can predictably take Mt Union inside a minute to play because neither you nor anyone else predicted it would happen in that game, and predictions aren't generally very accurate for anyone. What I said was there are 1-2 other teams that can lose to Mt Union by 2 scores. That doesn't require predictions of who, it simply illustrates what I believe, and you seem to need to insult me for it, which is JCU is closer to being the 3rd best team in the region right now than the #1 team.  That's not a novel idea, it's been true of every team in the North for close to 2 decades. I simply disagree with people on here who think a loss to Mt Union makes a team better than everyone else. I am a big believer in Pat's idea of who you beat vs who you lost to.
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Offline bluestreak66

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2434 on: October 18, 2018, 12:59:47 am »
It's not correct to say there is a chasm between JCU and the rest of the North based on a 13 pt loss.

It certainly is based on a full reading game and not simply a score margin that you keep quoting like youíre going to win something if you keep doing it.  You havenít answered the question posed earlier- who else on our list can predictably take Mount Union inside one minute with a chance to win?  And based on what?

No need to insult me Wally.  A full reading of the game includes the final minute of play. You don't get a pass for making the exact same mistake in the final minute you made in the first half (Berry sacked him earlier on the same blitz). In fact that's much, much worse. I watched the whole game and never had any worry Mt Union would win. A full reading of the game tells me Mt Union is a lot better than JCU and I think if they played again Mt wins by 3 Td's not just 2. A full reading of the game says JCU turned it over 4 times to Mt Union's zero. A full reading says Anthony Moeglin was 11-24 and gave up two fumbles for TD's, an INT in his own end of the field and couldn't make a play when he had a chance to affect the outcome at least 2, if not 3 times. I had absolutely no fear Mt Union would lose that game even when JCU got the ball with 1:44 left. In fact I would have given odds for a turnover vs a TD.

I honestly think your lack of fear comes from the fact that Mount is Mount, and not based on anything else. I'm sure that had the 2016 game ended differently (if Mount had intercepted JCU's touchdown pass and won the game), many people would have been on here saying that Mount was never in any real danger.
It's also worth pointing out that there were many people who looked at UST's 7 turnover effort in a close loss to UWO in the 2016 quarterfinals as a sign that they were that good. They could turn the ball over that many times and still have a chance to win. But when a team like John Carroll has a -4 turnover margin in a close loss to Mount Union, people take that as a sign John Carroll isn't that good.
Make no mistake, Mount Union is a better team than John Carroll. They found a way to win the game, and that's the bottom line. But at the end of the day, John Carroll had an opportunity to score a go ahead touchdown with less than a minute left. And the fact that they had that opportunity (whether we want to assign arbitrary probabilities to the potential success/failure of that final drive) shows that the game was in question. And I absolutely agree that there is no other team in the region (and probably only a handful in the country) that would have had that opportunity at the end of the game. Not with the body of work every other team has shown so far.
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Offline JCUStreaks70

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2435 on: October 18, 2018, 01:02:53 am »
It's not correct to say there is a chasm between JCU and the rest of the North based on a 13 pt loss.

It certainly is based on a full reading game and not simply a score margin that you keep quoting like youíre going to win something if you keep doing it.  You havenít answered the question posed earlier- who else on our list can predictably take Mount Union inside one minute with a chance to win?  And based on what?

No need to insult me Wally.  A full reading of the game includes the final minute of play. You don't get a pass for making the exact same mistake in the final minute you made in the first half (Berry sacked him earlier on the same blitz). In fact that's much, much worse. I watched the whole game and never had any worry Mt Union would win. A full reading of the game tells me Mt Union is a lot better than JCU and I think if they played again Mt wins by 3 Td's not just 2. A full reading of the game says JCU turned it over 4 times to Mt Union's zero. A full reading says Anthony Moeglin was 11-24 and gave up two fumbles for TD's, an INT in his own end of the field and couldn't make a play when he had a chance to affect the outcome at least 2, if not 3 times. I had absolutely no fear Mt Union would lose that game even when JCU got the ball with 1:44 left. In fact I would have given odds for a turnover vs a TD.

The question isn't who else can predictably take Mt Union inside a minute to play because neither you nor anyone else predicted it would happen in that game, and predictions aren't generally very accurate for anyone. What I said was there are 1-2 other teams that can lose to Mt Union by 2 scores. That doesn't require predictions of who, it simply illustrates what I believe, and you seem to need to insult me for it, which is JCU is closer to being the 3rd best team in the region right now than the #1 team.  That's not a novel idea, it's been true of every team in the North for close to 2 decades. I simply disagree with people on here who think a loss to Mt Union makes a team better than everyone else. I am a big believer in Pat's idea of who you beat vs who you lost to.

But to turn your above against you, with all of the above the game was much closer than it could've or maybe even should've been. You mention the mistakes that JCU had (which they did) and Mount was NEVER able to put that game away. Most teams that have a -4 TO ration against Mount go on to lose by over 35, but not this game. Why's that? Maybe that is because JCU has started to close (albeit still a ways to go to match) the gap on Mount? Now, I am not saying JCU is as good as Mount, we're not. We need to beat Mount somewhat consistently before that ever changes. But if JCU can have as bad of a game Offensively as they did against Mount and still have a chance to win with under 2 minutes to play, then JCU is in fact closing that gap.

Now, perfect teams don't make mistakes; great teams keep mistakes to a minimum; and good teams find a way to be competitive even in the face of multiple mistakes.

We still have a ways to go before we truly challenge Mount for conference supremacy; but taking that 8 of the previous 10 games have been decided in the 4th quarter, I am going to side on the fact that JCU is in fact much closer to Mount than essentially every other team in the North..

But then again, I may be biased.
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Offline JCUStreaks70

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2436 on: October 18, 2018, 01:03:49 am »
It's not correct to say there is a chasm between JCU and the rest of the North based on a 13 pt loss.

It certainly is based on a full reading game and not simply a score margin that you keep quoting like youíre going to win something if you keep doing it.  You havenít answered the question posed earlier- who else on our list can predictably take Mount Union inside one minute with a chance to win?  And based on what?

No need to insult me Wally.  A full reading of the game includes the final minute of play. You don't get a pass for making the exact same mistake in the final minute you made in the first half (Berry sacked him earlier on the same blitz). In fact that's much, much worse. I watched the whole game and never had any worry Mt Union would win. A full reading of the game tells me Mt Union is a lot better than JCU and I think if they played again Mt wins by 3 Td's not just 2. A full reading of the game says JCU turned it over 4 times to Mt Union's zero. A full reading says Anthony Moeglin was 11-24 and gave up two fumbles for TD's, an INT in his own end of the field and couldn't make a play when he had a chance to affect the outcome at least 2, if not 3 times. I had absolutely no fear Mt Union would lose that game even when JCU got the ball with 1:44 left. In fact I would have given odds for a turnover vs a TD.

I honestly think your lack of fear comes from the fact that Mount is Mount, and not based on anything else. I'm sure that had the 2016 game ended differently (if Mount had intercepted JCU's touchdown pass and won the game), many people would have been on here saying that Mount was never in any real danger.
It's also worth pointing out that there were many people who looked at UST's 7 turnover effort in a close loss to UWO in the 2016 quarterfinals as a sign that they were that good. They could turn the ball over that many times and still have a chance to win. But when a team like John Carroll has a -4 turnover margin in a close loss to Mount Union, people take that as a sign John Carroll isn't that good.
Make no mistake, Mount Union is a better team than John Carroll. They found a way to win the game, and that's the bottom line. But at the end of the day, John Carroll had an opportunity to score a go ahead touchdown with less than a minute left. And the fact that they had that opportunity (whether we want to assign arbitrary probabilities to the potential success/failure of that final drive) shows that the game was in question. And I absolutely agree that there is no other team in the region (and probably only a handful in the country) that would have had that opportunity at the end of the game. Not with the body of work every other team has shown so far.

You stole my rant bro..
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Offline wally_wabash

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2437 on: October 18, 2018, 08:51:31 am »
It's not correct to say there is a chasm between JCU and the rest of the North based on a 13 pt loss.

It certainly is based on a full reading game and not simply a score margin that you keep quoting like youíre going to win something if you keep doing it.  You havenít answered the question posed earlier- who else on our list can predictably take Mount Union inside one minute with a chance to win?  And based on what?

No need to insult me Wally.

I mean I didn't, but if you took offense to anything I said, I apologize for that. 

I am still curious who you think can play a better game against Mount Union than John Carroll did.   John Carroll with the ball under a minute to go and a chance to win at Mount Union is still the best result by any non-UMU team in the region.  It just is.  It isn't my preference to reward teams for losing, but Mount Union is such an outlier that the rules are a little different when assessing results against them.  And it seems the voters here, including yourself, agree!  JCU is the consensus #2 in our poll.  So now I'm confused entirely about what you're digging in on here. 
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Offline JCUStreaks70

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2438 on: October 18, 2018, 09:30:14 am »
One final thought, am I the only one who thinks that this is an argument for the sake of having an argument? We all agree JCU is the 2nd best team in the region, but to argue that they are closer to 3rd than 1st doesn't seem to make sense to me..

I mean, someone who finishes 2nd in the Olympics, whether by half a second or by 4 seconds still stands on the same level platform next to 1st and 3rd. They receive the same color medal and their flag still raises up the rafters.
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Offline Gregory Sager

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2439 on: October 18, 2018, 10:32:11 am »
One final thought, am I the only one who thinks that this is an argument for the sake of having an argument?

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Offline JCUStreaks70

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2440 on: October 18, 2018, 10:50:00 am »
One final thought, am I the only one who thinks that this is an argument for the sake of having an argument?

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Offline USee

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2441 on: October 18, 2018, 11:30:46 am »
It's not correct to say there is a chasm between JCU and the rest of the North based on a 13 pt loss.

It certainly is based on a full reading game and not simply a score margin that you keep quoting like youíre going to win something if you keep doing it.  You havenít answered the question posed earlier- who else on our list can predictably take Mount Union inside one minute with a chance to win?  And based on what?

No need to insult me Wally.

I mean I didn't, but if you took offense to anything I said, I apologize for that. 

I am still curious who you think can play a better game against Mount Union than John Carroll did.   John Carroll with the ball under a minute to go and a chance to win at Mount Union is still the best result by any non-UMU team in the region.  It just is.  It isn't my preference to reward teams for losing, but Mount Union is such an outlier that the rules are a little different when assessing results against them.  And it seems the voters here, including yourself, agree!  JCU is the consensus #2 in our poll.  So now I'm confused entirely about what you're digging in on here.

You said there is a chasm between #2 and #3 and I replied that I think JCU is closer to the #3 team than they are to the #1 team. That's the disagreement. I am not alone on this idea. The D3.com poll has JCU much closer to the next 4 North region teams than they do to Mt Union, by a margin.

I would also disagree JCU's result against Mt Union is the best result in the region. And it's certainly not true because you say "It just is". It's a loss. I think wins are better than losses. Another idea with which I am not alone. You want to boil the JCU/Mt game into a one score game with a minute to go as evidence of JCU's dominance against the North Region field. I see a JCU defense that is as good as any and an offense that is not championship level. Mt Unions Offense scored 9 pts, JCU's scored 10. Mt Unions defense scored 14 and JCU's scored 0.

I'll take the field against JCU in the playoffs. And if there is a rematch I'll take Mt and give whatever the points.  JCU has done nothing to warrant separation from the rest of the North the way Mt Union has. That's my opinion and I'm not alone.
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Offline Sir Battlescars

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2442 on: October 18, 2018, 12:35:56 pm »
I'm just happy to see the OAC finally get the respect they deserve by getting 4 teams in this poll.
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Offline HOPEful

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2443 on: October 18, 2018, 01:01:55 pm »
I'm just happy to see the OAC finally get the respect they deserve by getting 4 teams in this poll.
For one week at least. I find it very unlikely Marietta will still be ranked here after Saturday.
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Offline HOPEful

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2444 on: October 18, 2018, 02:59:40 pm »
I would also disagree JCU's result against Mt Union is the best result in the region... It's a loss. I think wins are better than losses...

What is then? I would say maybe Wheaton's 52-30 win at North Central. But their losses at IWU and at WashU diminish that result quite a bit. And as you've admitted, there's a chasm between Mount and North Central.

In my opinion, JCU's result at Mount IS the best result so far this season in the region when paired with their record. Of course, other than Mount's win against JCU.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2018, 03:53:53 pm by HOPEful »
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