Author Topic: North Region Fan Poll  (Read 297505 times)

Offline FCGrizzliesGrad

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2685 on: October 08, 2019, 08:57:35 pm »
Week 5

The NRFP is voted on by: Captain_Joe08, CollegeGolf18, Dr. Acula, FCGrizzliesGrad, HOPEful, Li'l Giant, NCF,  smedindy, thunderdog, and wally wabash.
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Offline HOPEful

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2686 on: October 09, 2019, 07:34:51 am »
I'm column 8.

I'm low guy on Wabash right now. We'll see in a couple weeks when they play Wittenberg.

Making the case for Augustana... Last week they cruised by Millikin. The same Millikin team that beat a Hope team that all but 1 of us ranked. The week before, Augustana went to IWU and kept it close all game. I'm excited to see how they play against North Central this week.

Albion at Hope for Homecoming this week feels like an unofficial MIAA Championship game. If Hope wins (and I think they will comfortably), they should run the table the rest of MIAA play.
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Offline USee

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2687 on: October 09, 2019, 12:17:08 pm »
It seems Augie is under rated relative to Hope with a common result that is dramatically different and equal 3-1 records.
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Offline formerd3db

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2688 on: October 09, 2019, 05:21:43 pm »
I'm column 8.

I'm low guy on Wabash right now. We'll see in a couple weeks when they play Wittenberg.

Making the case for Augustana... Last week they cruised by Millikin. The same Millikin team that beat a Hope team that all but 1 of us ranked. The week before, Augustana went to IWU and kept it close all game. I'm excited to see how they play against North Central this week.

Albion at Hope for Homecoming this week feels like an unofficial MIAA Championship game. If Hope wins (and I think they will comfortably), they should run the table the rest of MIAA play.

While I am not participating in this North Region Fan Poll with all of you, I just thought I would chime in here. Regarding the first topic, yes, it will be interesting to see how Augustana plays against North Central. 

As to the second, our upcoming Homecoming game this Saturday against Albion indeed does have the feel of the unofficial MIAA Championship game-it could very well turn out to be that, depending on a couple of scenarios for sure as we all realize.  However, while I am like you in that I hope and think that Hope does have a great chance at "running the table" thereafter if they win this week, that obviously is not a given and will still be a tough challenge.  Your and Usee's example regarding the Millikin-Hope-Augustana comparison   supports that thinking as well as Alma's huge upset against Albion.  Those are just examples that show anyone can pull the upset.  I do not count out Olivet, especially if they beat Adrian this weekend and while Hope should realistically beat Alma, if they win the Albion game, both Alma and Olivet cannot be taken for granted.  Not saying Hope will do that, just saying that the intensity will need to be sustained. 

Anyway, I enjoy seeing how all of you rate and predict the weekly outcomes here.
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Offline Dr. Acula

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2689 on: October 09, 2019, 06:06:05 pm »
I'm column 5.  I thought overall this week was a little easier than previous ones, but I'm still surprised I ran the table with my ballot. 

As for Augie, I had my eye on them last week for my 10 spot so I really contemplated them this week.  I just opted for Denison over Augie or BW this week.  For me this week BW ended up being the #3 of that group because I frankly wasn't impressed with their performance against a very bad Cap team.

I have a question for the group.  Do you guys treat a loss to Mount the same as any other loss when you're ranking teams?  I do not, but I'm curious if I'm alone in that philosophy.

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2690 on: October 09, 2019, 06:19:22 pm »
I'm column 5.  I thought overall this week was a little easier than previous ones, but I'm still surprised I ran the table with my ballot. 

As for Augie, I had my eye on them last week for my 10 spot so I really contemplated them this week.  I just opted for Denison over Augie or BW this week.  For me this week BW ended up being the #3 of that group because I frankly wasn't impressed with their performance against a very bad Cap team.

I have a question for the group.  Do you guys treat a loss to Mount the same as any other loss when you're ranking teams?  I do not, but I'm curious if I'm alone in that philosophy.

Nope.  TBQH, I don't even really pay attention to results vs. Mount Union for balloting purposes unless a team wins or pushes Mount Union to the brink (see John Carroll, 2016, 2018).  It's the same reason I never put Mount Union games in my NCAC Pick 'Em.  Even when Mount Union plays a highly ranked team, they're going to be like 3+ TD favorites and why do I want to put an expected blowout in my pick 'em by choice?  Mount Union just operates in a separate strata than the rest of the region (division). 

I'm column 2.  I guess I'm opened up for critique for ranking Hope so high and Augustana not at all.  Augustana is probably just off of my top 10 and they've got plenty of opportunity to play in, starting this week. 
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Offline USee

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2691 on: October 10, 2019, 01:31:11 am »
If Augustana had beat Millikin by less than a touchdown while Hope lost to Millikin by less than a TD I think it's understandable but Augie pounded Millikin badly who beat Hope. Augie also has a result against IWU (1 play from the 10 yd line from winning in Bloomington) that is more evidence they are under rated.

So if Augie loses to NCC by 30 does that justify not ranking them in the top 10? Or if they only lose by 14 does that bump them up?
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Offline Captainred81

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2692 on: October 10, 2019, 09:35:23 am »
I like what y'all have done here. I have not voted on this pole, although it seems cool. 

My critique is:

I think Witt is too high.  Their wins have not been impressive against lesser opponents, and they have the loss to W&J which didn't seem that bad at first, but after W&J lost it seems worse.

I think I would have Augie, BW and Hope higher, and bumping Witt and Dennison down.

Nice work all
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Offline HOPEful

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2693 on: October 10, 2019, 10:29:48 am »
My over simplified, general voting philosophy going forward.

1. Mount Union.
2. Everyone in the CCIW I think is better than John Carroll.
3. John Carroll.
4. Everyone in the CCIW I think is better than everyone else.
5. Anyone left in Michigan or Ohio that I think is pretty good.
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Offline Li'l Giant

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2694 on: October 10, 2019, 01:02:24 pm »
If Augustana had beat Millikin by less than a touchdown while Hope lost to Millikin by less than a TD I think it's understandable but Augie pounded Millikin badly who beat Hope. Augie also has a result against IWU (1 play from the 10 yd line from winning in Bloomington) that is more evidence they are under rated.

So if Augie loses to NCC by 30 does that justify not ranking them in the top 10? Or if they only lose by 14 does that bump them up?

I readily admit I took a "wait and see" approach re: Augie.
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Offline smedindy

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2695 on: October 10, 2019, 02:30:30 pm »
I'm #4. Week one games are always 'interesting', and Millikin beat Hope at home, and then lost to Augie at Augie. Hope seems to have improved greatly, with a nice win against Aurora and a monster win at Trine.

Right now I think Hope's better than either Augie or Millikin. Augie's win against Coe may not look impressive until we see their results against Simpson, Central, or Wartburg.


Offline USee

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2696 on: October 10, 2019, 02:35:33 pm »
The difference between neutral site, road and home games is pretty statistically set at about 3 points.
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Offline wally_wabash

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2697 on: October 10, 2019, 02:49:56 pm »
The difference between neutral site, road and home games is pretty statistically set at about 3 points.

In the NFL.  Where roster talent is fairly equal (certainly relative to NCAA Division III) and crowds in excess of 50,000 people can actually affect the playing environment for visitors.  I'm not sure I buy into a significant home/away advantage at this level. 

I'll freely admit (again) that I may be undervaluing Augustana this week vis a vis Hope, but there's also more information available than Hope-Millikin and Augustana-Millikin and some of that information is really valuable. 
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Offline HOPEful

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2698 on: October 10, 2019, 02:52:05 pm »
If Augustana had beat Millikin by less than a touchdown while Hope lost to Millikin by less than a TD I think it's understandable but Augie pounded Millikin badly who beat Hope. Augie also has a result against IWU (1 play from the 10 yd line from winning in Bloomington) that is more evidence they are under rated.

So if Augie loses to NCC by 30 does that justify not ranking them in the top 10? Or if they only lose by 14 does that bump them up?

I'm just interested to see the result. In my mind, how teams do against Mount doesn't count unless they keep it close. To a lesser degree, I feel the same way about NCC and Wheaton.

But it's an inexact barometer for sure! Last year, I was 100% on board the John Carroll kept it close against Mount, that defense is amazing, I've gotta rank them 2nd or 3rd in the region... and then they lost to Raldolph Macon in the first round.
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Offline USee

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2699 on: October 10, 2019, 03:59:43 pm »
There’s a lot more to HFA than crowds and roster talent.  But I agree with your point that horn/away is much less important than stastically proven spreads (which also factor into Cokkege football not just the NFL-this is well documented fact) for D3.  Home Vs away at this level is not much of a reason for most results. Certainly not 26 pt differentials.

There is a lot more info than those 3 teams common result. And that information is quite valuable I agree.
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