Author Topic: North Region Fan Poll  (Read 303918 times)

Offline jamtod

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2700 on: October 10, 2019, 10:47:01 pm »
The difference between neutral site, road and home games is pretty statistically set at about 3 points.

In the NFL.  Where roster talent is fairly equal (certainly relative to NCAA Division III) and crowds in excess of 50,000 people can actually affect the playing environment for visitors.  I'm not sure I buy into a significant home/away advantage at this level. 

I'll freely admit (again) that I may be undervaluing Augustana this week vis a vis Hope, but there's also more information available than Hope-Millikin and Augustana-Millikin and some of that information is really valuable.

I don't have the exact source but I could probably dig it up, but somebody looked at HFA pretty extensively and concluded that the difference was primarily a result of minor impacts to officiating. Officials were determined to be swayed (minimally but meaningfully) in favor of the home team.

Offline Li'l Giant

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2701 on: October 10, 2019, 10:58:06 pm »
In D3 I'm guessing that home/away advantages have a more to do with travel than home crowds or even officiating.
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Offline Mr. Ypsi

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2702 on: October 10, 2019, 11:06:13 pm »
In D3 I'm guessing that home/away advantages have a more to do with travel than home crowds or even officiating.

Especially if it involves an overnighter.  I often don't sleep very well in the first day in a new bed (however comfortable) - I suspect I am not alone in this.

Offline jamtod

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2703 on: October 10, 2019, 11:13:13 pm »
In D3 I'm guessing that home/away advantages have a more to do with travel than home crowds or even officiating.

Especially if it involves an overnighter.  I often don't sleep very well in the first day in a new bed (however comfortable) - I suspect I am not alone in this.

All true. I think the study I found was at a professional level.
I actually think the HFA could be more significant in D3.

Offline HOPEful

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2704 on: October 11, 2019, 10:07:32 am »
For fun I checked where Massey had the north teams. Here are Massey's ratings (with overall national rating in parenthesis)... they obviously reflect the CCIW's strength of schedule...

1. Wheaton (1)
2. Mount Union (2)
3. North Central (6)
4. Washington U. (17)
5. IWU (24)
6. Augustana (32)
7. John Carroll (39)
8. Carthage (41)
9. Baldwin Wallace (50)
10. Millikin (58)

Honorable Mentions: Monmouth (66), Hope (69), Denison (71), Wabash (72), Mt. St. Joseph (76)
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Offline HOPEful

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2705 on: October 14, 2019, 10:16:35 am »
I found this week to be somewhat easier than previous weeks. Not much happened to teams in or just out of my rankings that altered my opinions of them.

CCIW games all went as should have been expected for the most part. Although I would have liked to see it a little closer, even Augustana's 42-14 loss to North Central doesn't really tell me much.

Wabash's loss to Wooster made me feel justified in being low guy on them last week.
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Offline FCGrizzliesGrad

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2706 on: October 16, 2019, 10:12:15 pm »
Week 6

The NRFP is voted on by: Captain_Joe08, CollegeGolf18, Dr. Acula, FCGrizzliesGrad, HOPEful, Li'l Giant, NCF,  smedindy, thunderdog, and wally wabash.
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Offline Sir Battlescars

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2707 on: October 17, 2019, 11:58:06 am »
Interesting that undefeated Olivet doesnít have any votes.
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Offline Flying Dutch Fan

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2708 on: October 17, 2019, 12:25:12 pm »
Interesting that undefeated Olivet doesn’t have any votes.

I believe that's all about schedule.  Their opponents have a combined 9-16 record this year, and Massey has their SOS as 207 out of 249 teams.  For comparison, here is the Massey SOS for the ranked teams this Fan Poll.

Mt. Union - 66
Wheaton - 10
North Central - 8
John Carroll - 74
Illinois Wesleyan - 7
Wittenberg - 143
WashU - 34
Hope - 121
Denison - 175
Baldwin Wallace - 60
Aurora - 134
Wabash - 109
Auggie - 18
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Offline thunderdog

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2709 on: October 17, 2019, 05:47:17 pm »
I believe that's all about schedule & CONFERENCE

I'm column 4. This is the first time in ALL MY YEARS (all 1.5 years  ;)) of doing the NRFP that I only have 1 NCAC team in the top 10. Wabash's overall inconsistency coupled with their convincing win over Denison keeps both of them outside my top 10. Hope's season opener loss to a mid-range CCIW school (Millikin) will likely keep them from climbing much higher than 8 or 9 all season, in my book. Aurora's competitive loss to said Hope will likely keep those 2 close in the rankings, for the time being. I think both the CCIW and OAC are stronger at the top (top 4) than previous seasons. I'm much closer to giving Heidelberg and their ultra-competitive 1 point loss to current NRFP #10 Baldwin Wallace a spot than either Wabash or Denison. Early in the season, I was a bit uncomfortable giving the CCIW 4 spots in the top 10, but getting more and more comfortable with it each week. If Wabash beats Witt, it's likely I'll insert OAC team #4 and not have any NCAC teams in my top 10.

Offline thunderdog

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2710 on: October 17, 2019, 05:56:07 pm »
Interesting that undefeated Olivet doesnít have any votes.

Olivet's 20-17 win over Wilmington doesn't do anything to convince me they won't end up 7-3 or 6-4 (losses to Hope, Alma, Albion and possibly Trine). But that's why we play the game and don't just let Logan Hansen determine the outcome... something that he, his megamind, and his super duper computer and statistical crunching algorithms are incredibly good at!

Offline Dr. Acula

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2711 on: October 17, 2019, 06:10:35 pm »
Interesting that undefeated Olivet doesnít have any votes.

I didnít even consider Olivet and TBH wonít unless they beat Hope.  The MIAA just doesnít have that kind of currency.

I will say that as the resident OAC homer even Iím surprised a couple folks have JCU at 3.

Online wally_wabash

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2712 on: October 17, 2019, 10:19:49 pm »
Column 5 here.  I'm still bullish on Hope even though they lost in Week 1. 

I'm not bullish on John Carroll and intend to start a secret conversation with my other voters here to oust the Streaks from the NRFP permanently because we don't do that around here.   :)
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Offline archgemini24

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2713 on: October 18, 2019, 09:15:12 am »
Interesting that undefeated Olivet doesnít have any votes.

I didnít even consider Olivet and TBH wonít unless they beat Hope.  The MIAA just doesnít have that kind of currency.

I will say that as the resident OAC homer even Iím surprised a couple folks have JCU at 3.

I have seen on a line of thinking on this board to just throw out most results against Mount Union unless they upset the Raiders or keep it very close. Anything that makes the pollsters not throw out the game (such as Mount playing their starters the entire second half, not changing the play-calling much, yet still getting outscored) is significant.

Offline HOPEful

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2714 on: October 18, 2019, 09:42:00 am »
Interesting that undefeated Olivet doesnít have any votes.

I didnít even consider Olivet and TBH wonít unless they beat Hope.  The MIAA just doesnít have that kind of currency.

I will say that as the resident OAC homer even Iím surprised a couple folks have JCU at 3.

I have seen on a line of thinking on this board to just throw out most results against Mount Union unless they upset the Raiders or keep it very close. Anything that makes the pollsters not throw out the game (such as Mount playing their starters the entire second half, not changing the play-calling much, yet still getting outscored) is significant.

Yep, any game that isn't four touchdowns or more to zero (or the occasional seven) at halftime gets my attention. Of course, it would have to happen in order to get my attention.
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