Author Topic: North Region Fan Poll  (Read 305203 times)

Offline archgemini24

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2760 on: November 07, 2019, 11:59:17 am »
As support for my position that the OAC has fallen off, I offer the following that I put together a while back:


OAC losses to Mount in the playoffs:
1997   John Carroll lost to Mount in Round 2 (1 win)
1999 - Ohio Northern lost to Mount in Round 2 (1 win)
2000  - Ohio Northern lost to Mount in Round 1 (0 wins)
2002  -  John Carroll  lost to Mount in the SEMI-FINALS (3 wins)
2005 - Capital lost to Mount in the Round 3 (2 wins)
2006 - Capital lost to Mount in Round 3 (2 wins)


OAC losses against someone else:
2003 - Baldwin Wallace to Wheaton in 2nd round (1 win)
2007 - Capital at Whitewater in Round 1 (UWW was Nat Champs) (0 wins)
2008 - Otterbein to Franklin in Round 1 (Franklin beat NCC in 2nd round, lost to Wheaton in regional final) (0 wins)
2012 - Heidelberg to Wittenberg in Round 1 (horrible loss for the OAC as Hberg had a big lead) (0 wins)
2013 - John Carroll to SFJ in Round 1 (0 wins)
2018 - John Carroll to Randolph Macon in Round 1 (worst of the OAC losses, expected JCU to roll back to Mount in Round 3) (0 wins)

Mount playoff losses as OAC runner-up:
2016 MHB in the semi-finals (MHB national champs) (3 wins)


Overall, the 2nd place OAC team (including Mount) is a respectable 13-13.  The non-Mount OAC teams are 10-12 in the playoffs.  Which I would assume historically compares well to Pool C's from other conference.  Remove the OAC playoff losses to Mount and they're a very solid 10-6.

However I will acknowledge the most telling sign from the data above is that the OAC has really fallen off in the last decade.  Prior to 2007 it was expected that the 2nd place OAC team would win out until reaching Mount again.  Since 2007, the norm has been for the 2nd place OAC team to piss down their leg in the playoffs.  Ala JCU in 2018 year.  I believe this is the case from watching the conference too.  The days of ONU, BW and JCU all being competitive are gone.   

The OAC has never been as competitive top to bottom as the WIAC or CCIW, but unfortunately it appears the conference has been trending in the wrong direction over the last decade when it comes to the top teams right behind Mount. 

There was also a time back in the late 1990's thru mid-2000's where the top of the OAC provided as stiff a test from ONU, B-W and/or JCU as they would face all season on their way to a championship.   That hasn't been the case in quite a long time.  There has been a random team step up every once in a while to push Mount, but nothing consistent nor most importantly expected.  Recently it has felt more like a surprise that an OAC team hung with Mount for 60 minutes instead of expecting it like you did with the ONU teams of the late 1990's or Capital in mid-2000's.   And it isn't because Mount is more dominant now, it's because the 2nd & 3rd OAC teams have fallen off.

Additional data points:

OAC losses to Mount in the playoffs:
2014 - John Carroll lost to Mount Union in Round 3 (2-1). There are two close losses to Mount this year, too.

OAC losses to someone else in the playoffs:
2010 - Ohio Northern lost to North Central in Round 2 (1-1).
2015 - Ohio Northern lost to UW-Oshkosh in Round 2 (1-1).
2016 - John Carroll lost to UW-Oshkosh in the Semi-finals (3-1).

This brings the non-Mount teams to 17-16 (10-12 + 7-4) counting their losses to Mount and 17-9 (10-6 + 7-3) (!) without them.

I am not sure I see the fall-off you have mentioned. There are a lot more points in favor of the newer crews that brings thing a bit more into balance, especially that 2016 JCU team (if you are looking at them as the champ, then Mount Union was the OAC runner-up... who also went 3-1, so the record doesn't change). Since 2009 (this allows for comparison against the conference records listed in d3.com's playoff FAQ), the "other" OAC team is 7-7, which percentage-wise would be good for a tie for 9th on the list with the MAC at .500.

I do see that there are more non-Mount Union losses, though, but that is unsurprising considering:
- Mount Union has been shipped out to 1-line the East more frequently, and the selection committee has tried harder where they could to avoid early-conference rematches (so more teams get a shot at the OAC runner-up before Mount does).
- Few of those are upsets (although some are fantastically bad).

Offline Dr. Acula

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2761 on: November 07, 2019, 12:02:31 pm »
Can someone please explain to me how the committee can logically rank 7-1 Hope ahead of two 7-1 OAC teams? Hope is having a nice season, but come on! Everyone knows the MIAA is nowhere near the level of the OAC, just look at the scores of the 3 games played between the two conferences this year. Also throw in the fact that Hopes loss is to mediocre Millikan while JCUs and BWs loss is to Mount Union.

John Carroll doesn't have a win against a team with a winning record.  Baldwin Wallace does, so good on them.  They also have an inferior SOS and do not have a win against a ranked team, which Hope does. 

I think we're way past the time where OAC #2 gets waved through the door and into the NCAA tournament.  It's time for those teams to earn it, and this year they really haven't.  The winner of JCU/BW will have a shot, but right now the OAC runner up is looking at a last in/first out scenario.

How do they earn it?

I'm not sure they can given the quality of the league below Mount Union.  The quality opponents just aren't there throughout the OAC right now.

That was my assumption.  With only 1 OOC game you're tied to the strength of the rest of your conference.  And unlike say the CCIW or NCAC in the OAC those teams are starting off 0-1 against RRO and shooting for 9-1 at best every single year.  It feels like in the current climate the best case scenario seems to be you go 9-1 and your OOC ends up as a RRO so you finish 2-1 vs. RRO. 

Offline Sir Battlescars

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2762 on: November 07, 2019, 01:02:23 pm »
Just curious, does anyone know the playoff records of each North Region conference from the last 15 years or so? Im interested to see how it compares with the OAC minus Mount Union. Thanks in advance!
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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2763 on: November 07, 2019, 01:17:13 pm »
Just curious, does anyone know the playoff records of each North Region conference from the last 15 years or so? Im interested to see how it compares with the OAC minus Mount Union. Thanks in advance!

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Offline HScoach

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2764 on: November 07, 2019, 01:28:00 pm »
Archgemini:  didn't realize that my list was that incomplete.   Figured I had missed a few, but not multiple.   I'll have to do a little more digging when I get a chance.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2019, 01:31:37 pm by HScoach »
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Offline HScoach

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2765 on: November 07, 2019, 02:13:54 pm »
As support for my position that the OAC has fallen off, I offer the following that I put together a while back:


OAC losses to Mount in the playoffs:
1997   John Carroll lost to Mount in Round 2 (1 win)
1999 - Ohio Northern lost to Mount in Round 2 (1 win)
2000  - Ohio Northern lost to Mount in Round 1 (0 wins)
2002  -  John Carroll  lost to Mount in the SEMI-FINALS (3 wins)
2005 - Capital lost to Mount in the Round 3 (2 wins)
2006 - Capital lost to Mount in Round 3 (2 wins)


OAC losses against someone else:
2003 - Baldwin Wallace to Wheaton in 2nd round (1 win)
2007 - Capital at Whitewater in Round 1 (UWW was Nat Champs) (0 wins)
2008 - Otterbein to Franklin in Round 1 (Franklin beat NCC in 2nd round, lost to Wheaton in regional final) (0 wins)
2012 - Heidelberg to Wittenberg in Round 1 (horrible loss for the OAC as Hberg had a big lead) (0 wins)
2013 - John Carroll to SFJ in Round 1 (0 wins)
2018 - John Carroll to Randolph Macon in Round 1 (worst of the OAC losses, expected JCU to roll back to Mount in Round 3) (0 wins)

Mount playoff losses as OAC runner-up:
2016 MHB in the semi-finals (MHB national champs) (3 wins)


Overall, the 2nd place OAC team (including Mount) is a respectable 13-13.  The non-Mount OAC teams are 10-12 in the playoffs.  Which I would assume historically compares well to Pool C's from other conference.  Remove the OAC playoff losses to Mount and they're a very solid 10-6.

However I will acknowledge the most telling sign from the data above is that the OAC has really fallen off in the last decade.  Prior to 2007 it was expected that the 2nd place OAC team would win out until reaching Mount again.  Since 2007, the norm has been for the 2nd place OAC team to piss down their leg in the playoffs.  Ala JCU in 2018 year.  I believe this is the case from watching the conference too.  The days of ONU, BW and JCU all being competitive are gone.   

The OAC has never been as competitive top to bottom as the WIAC or CCIW, but unfortunately it appears the conference has been trending in the wrong direction over the last decade when it comes to the top teams right behind Mount. 

There was also a time back in the late 1990's thru mid-2000's where the top of the OAC provided as stiff a test from ONU, B-W and/or JCU as they would face all season on their way to a championship.   That hasn't been the case in quite a long time.  There has been a random team step up every once in a while to push Mount, but nothing consistent nor most importantly expected.  Recently it has felt more like a surprise that an OAC team hung with Mount for 60 minutes instead of expecting it like you did with the ONU teams of the late 1990's or Capital in mid-2000's.   And it isn't because Mount is more dominant now, it's because the 2nd & 3rd OAC teams have fallen off.

Additional data points:

OAC losses to Mount in the playoffs:
2014 - John Carroll lost to Mount Union in Round 3 (2-1). There are two close losses to Mount this year, too.

OAC losses to someone else in the playoffs:
2010 - Ohio Northern lost to North Central in Round 2 (1-1).
2015 - Ohio Northern lost to UW-Oshkosh in Round 2 (1-1).
2016 - John Carroll lost to UW-Oshkosh in the Semi-finals (3-1).

This brings the non-Mount teams to 17-16 (10-12 + 7-4) counting their losses to Mount and 17-9 (10-6 + 7-3) (!) without them.

I am not sure I see the fall-off you have mentioned. There are a lot more points in favor of the newer crews that brings thing a bit more into balance, especially that 2016 JCU team (if you are looking at them as the champ, then Mount Union was the OAC runner-up... who also went 3-1, so the record doesn't change). Since 2009 (this allows for comparison against the conference records listed in d3.com's playoff FAQ), the "other" OAC team is 7-7, which percentage-wise would be good for a tie for 9th on the list with the MAC at .500.

I do see that there are more non-Mount Union losses, though, but that is unsurprising considering:
- Mount Union has been shipped out to 1-line the East more frequently, and the selection committee has tried harder where they could to avoid early-conference rematches (so more teams get a shot at the OAC runner-up before Mount does).
- Few of those are upsets (although some are fantastically bad).

For the record, I was looking at only the OAC runner-up which is why I didn't include JCU in 2016 in my tally.  I did miss the others though.

I still think my overall premise is still accurate though.  Prior to 2007 it was rare for the 2nd place OAC team to lose to anyone other than Mount.  Post 2007 it is quite common for the 2nd place OAC team to lose to someone not name Mount.
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Offline bluestreak66

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2766 on: November 08, 2019, 10:01:33 am »
As support for my position that the OAC has fallen off, I offer the following that I put together a while back:


OAC losses to Mount in the playoffs:
1997   John Carroll lost to Mount in Round 2 (1 win)
1999 - Ohio Northern lost to Mount in Round 2 (1 win)
2000  - Ohio Northern lost to Mount in Round 1 (0 wins)
2002  -  John Carroll  lost to Mount in the SEMI-FINALS (3 wins)
2005 - Capital lost to Mount in the Round 3 (2 wins)
2006 - Capital lost to Mount in Round 3 (2 wins)


OAC losses against someone else:
2003 - Baldwin Wallace to Wheaton in 2nd round (1 win)
2007 - Capital at Whitewater in Round 1 (UWW was Nat Champs) (0 wins)
2008 - Otterbein to Franklin in Round 1 (Franklin beat NCC in 2nd round, lost to Wheaton in regional final) (0 wins)
2012 - Heidelberg to Wittenberg in Round 1 (horrible loss for the OAC as Hberg had a big lead) (0 wins)
2013 - John Carroll to SFJ in Round 1 (0 wins)
2018 - John Carroll to Randolph Macon in Round 1 (worst of the OAC losses, expected JCU to roll back to Mount in Round 3) (0 wins)

Mount playoff losses as OAC runner-up:
2016 MHB in the semi-finals (MHB national champs) (3 wins)


Overall, the 2nd place OAC team (including Mount) is a respectable 13-13.  The non-Mount OAC teams are 10-12 in the playoffs.  Which I would assume historically compares well to Pool C's from other conference.  Remove the OAC playoff losses to Mount and they're a very solid 10-6.

However I will acknowledge the most telling sign from the data above is that the OAC has really fallen off in the last decade.  Prior to 2007 it was expected that the 2nd place OAC team would win out until reaching Mount again.  Since 2007, the norm has been for the 2nd place OAC team to piss down their leg in the playoffs.  Ala JCU in 2018 year.  I believe this is the case from watching the conference too.  The days of ONU, BW and JCU all being competitive are gone.   

The OAC has never been as competitive top to bottom as the WIAC or CCIW, but unfortunately it appears the conference has been trending in the wrong direction over the last decade when it comes to the top teams right behind Mount. 

There was also a time back in the late 1990's thru mid-2000's where the top of the OAC provided as stiff a test from ONU, B-W and/or JCU as they would face all season on their way to a championship.   That hasn't been the case in quite a long time. There has been a random team step up every once in a while to push Mount, but nothing consistent nor most importantly expected.  Recently it has felt more like a surprise that an OAC team hung with Mount for 60 minutes instead of expecting it like you did with the ONU teams of the late 1990's or Capital in mid-2000's.   And it isn't because Mount is more dominant now, it's because the 2nd & 3rd OAC teams have fallen off.

Here are John Carroll's results against Mount Union since 2013:

8 point loss (13)
7 point loss (14 RS)
8 point loss (14 PS)
33 point loss (15, not great)
3 point win (16)
4 point loss (17)
13 point loss (18)
23 point loss (19, not great)

So with two exceptions, John Carroll, who has recently been consistently OAC number 2, has given Mount a close game. To say that that it is nothing consistent is false. It is also worth noting that the 15 Mount team that beat JCU by 33 beat Albright in the 2nd round by 59, and Whitewater in the semis by 30.
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Offline HScoach

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2767 on: November 08, 2019, 10:16:27 am »
Yes, JCU has been close  but few of those years did we go into the game expecting that Mount had to play almost perfect to win.  JCU has played Mount tough, but few of those teams were looked at as legitimate threats pre-season or pre-game as being toss up type contests.  The ONU teams of the late 90's with Roberson and Vagedas were every bit as talented as Mount and in some positions more so.  Those games were scary going in.  Same with the Pentello led Capital teams.   That's the difference in my mind.  The expectation and talent level across the board.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2019, 10:34:22 am by HScoach »
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Offline Kerry

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2768 on: November 08, 2019, 11:41:14 am »
Yes, JCU has been close  but few of those years did we go into the game expecting that Mount had to play almost perfect to win.  JCU has played Mount tough, but few of those teams were looked at as legitimate threats pre-season or pre-game as being toss up type contests.  The ONU teams of the late 90's with Roberson and Vagedas were every bit as talented as Mount and in some positions more so.  Those games were scary going in.  Same with the Pentello led Capital teams.   That's the difference in my mind.  The expectation and talent level across the board.

Looking only at regular season games from 1998-2018. We will start with 1998-2007
1998 MU vs 2nd place BW 30-21 (won by 9)
1999 MU vs 2nd place ONU 56-24 (won by 32)
2000 MU vs 2nd place ONU 59-28 (won by 21)
2001 MU vs 2nd place ONU 31-3 (won by 28)
2002 MU vs 2nd place JCU 35-16 (won by 19)
2003 MU vs 2nd place BW 24-0 (won by 24)
2004 MU vs 3rd place Cap with Pentello won 49-7 vs 2nd place ONU 41-27 (won by 14)
2005 MU vs 2nd place Cap 42-24 (won by 18)
2006 MU vs 2nd place Cap 38-12 (won by 26)
2007 MU vs 2nd place Cap won 37-0 (won by 37)

Over 10 years that is an average margin of victory of 22.5 points
From 2009-2018
2009 MU vs 2nd place ONU won 30-10 (won by 20)
2010 MU vs 2nd place ONU won 27-0 (won by 27)
2011 MU vs 2nd place BW won 25-20 (won by 5)
2012 MU vs 2nd place Heidelberg won 33-14 (won by 19)
2013 MU vs 2nd place JCU won 42-34 (won by 8)
2014 MU vs 2nd place JCU won 31-24 (won by 7)
2015 MU vs 2nd place JCU won 36-3 (won by 33)
2016 MU vs 1s place JCU Lost 31-28 (Lost by 3
2017 MU vs 4th place JCU 31-27 - MU vs 2nd place ONU won 43-14 (won by 29)
2018 MU vs 2nd place JCU won 23-10 (won by 13)
Over the last 10 years that is an average margin of victory of 15.8 points almost a TD better per game and someone othr than Mount Union won the OAC


The OAC is 30-5 in 1st round playoff games over the past 20 season! I am not sure why posters knock the OAC, it is a great Conference with Mount Union leading the way but still REALLY good league behind them. Look at this year where Wilmington lost 20-17 to Olivet who is 7-1 in the MIAA. 

Offline Sir Battlescars

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2769 on: November 08, 2019, 12:53:48 pm »
Thank you Kerry for your positive and accurate perspective on the OAC. And welcome to the boards!
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Offline USee

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2770 on: November 08, 2019, 01:52:00 pm »
I am not sure comparing Mt Union's 1st round margin of victory over 20 years to a 3 pt game this year between Olivet and Wilmington is incredibly revealing about the state of things in the OAC.
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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2771 on: November 09, 2019, 06:03:00 pm »
That was a rough week for pool C teams in the north... #3 North Central won and is still 1st in line for the region, #6 John Carroll survived Heidelberg, #9 Wabash won... but #5 Baldwin Wallace, #8 WashU, and #10 Denison all lost. Going to be a lot of shuffling around and potential for teams to gain/lose RRO.
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Offline thunderdog

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2772 on: November 12, 2019, 11:38:36 am »
Last week's games sure muddied the waters here in the NRFP. #'s 8- 10 could go any number of directions, IMO.

Offline Dr. Acula

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2773 on: November 12, 2019, 11:46:18 am »
Saturday's results certainly made it seem like almost no one wants to be ranked in the NRFP.  You get to the bottom part of your ballot and it's just a bunch of teams that just lost or don't have much of a resume. 

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Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Reply #2774 on: November 12, 2019, 11:53:49 am »
Totally agree. I spent more time trying to place 8-10 than those teams have earned.
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