I have to think, after how they dominated NESCAC for most of last year, Amherst is still the favorite despite the offensive firepower they graduated. Noon in particular is irreplaceable, and Lerner's throw-ins were a big weapon, but Aoyama is still the best player in NESCAC and they still have other all-NESCAC level guys in Heo, Fikke, Wirz and Rico. Greg Singer should be a big presence up front as well after a year of expeirence. Bull will be tested more often this year but looked up to the task, and has the pedigree. Amherst won't totally dominate the way they did last season, though -- that was probably their national title window as that team definitely had the personnel to test Messiah.
Williams after making the Final Four will also be back strong. Losing Than Finan hurts -- he was spectacular -- but folks forget that he was neck-and-neck with Peter Morrell for much of the last three years so the Ephs should be fine at GK. Williams was starting two frosh on the backline by the end of the year so they should benefit from added experience there as well, and they have five backs returning with extensive starting experience. The Rashid-Kushaina duo is the second best 1-2 punch up front in NESCAC. The Ephs do need to find a few more consistent creators / scorers to help those two out, especially with Ebobisse graduating. Zach Grady if healthy and Matt Murralles are both certainly capable of filling that role, and perhaps a frosh will step up. If a few of the young Eph midfielders step up Williams could challenge Amherst.
Speaking of 1-2 punches Tufts will also contend led by the Hoppentot-Santos duo. The Jumbos lose basically nothing to graduation and they along with Williams will pose the biggest threat to Amherst. All three of those teams should be NCAA squads barring major injuries or anything else unexpected.
Wesleyan could be in for the biggest drop-off, they graduate the only player who scored more than 3 goals from an anemic offense and Purdy won't be around to bail them out.
Regarding Amherst, looks like they brought in another big and strong recruiting class in. Six listed on this site alone (no other NESCAC squad has more than one), including, presumably, Aoyama's little brother. Cassutt was POY in Minnesota:http://www.topdrawersoccer.com/college-soccer/college-soccer-details/men/amherst/clgid-1413/tab-commitments