Pool C -- 2011

[jknezek]

Though SJF's performance against Hobart may put them at the bottom of that list. 56-20 is hard to overlook.

Yep. And I'm thinking they aren't going to be the only team with 2 losses to tournament teams. W&L will probably fit that bill with Centre and H-SC and they lost both games on the road by a touchdown each. I don't think W&L deserves much consideration here either. You just can't lose 2 games in D3 and not win your AQ. I don't care how tough your schedule or who you lost to, two losses and arguing for a Pool C is extremely marginal.

[K-Mack]

There's B/W, the Kean / Montclair loser, Wheaton, and Louisiana College (among others) going, "We're better!"

Can't help but think that Baldwin-Wallace is REALLY going to regret that early-season loss to Capital...few teams have been as impressive as B-W over the last couple weeks, with five straight OAC wins in October, and rallying from a 19-0 deficit to take the lead in the second half AT Mount Union is no joke.

Yup. I moved them up in the poll, but they have only themselves to blame for the playoff predicament. Even with the loss to Cap they had the chance to close Mount Union out in the final five minutes and gave up a go-down-in-history touchdown drive. At any other school, that's an epic drive for a conference title.

[K-Mack]

Though SJF's performance against Hobart may put them at the bottom of that list. 56-20 is hard to overlook.

Yep. And I'm thinking they aren't going to be the only team with 2 losses to tournament teams. W&L will probably fit that bill with Centre and H-SC and they lost both games on the road by a touchdown each. I don't think W&L deserves much consideration here either. You just can't lose 2 games in D3 and not win your AQ. I don't care how tough your schedule or who you lost to, two losses and arguing for a Pool C is extremely marginal.

Yeah, at least W&L played both of its games close. SJF got blown out twice, that's not playoff material unless the field is really weak. Wheaton lost to NC and IWU and one of the games was close.

I know Frank wishes and prays for East teams to get the nod, but 1) they have to earn them, and 2) his best bets are probably Endicott (in weak fields, committees have shown favor to 9-1 teams no matter their home conference) and for Widener to clinch the MAC and push Del Val into Pool C.

Although that opens Frank's other favorite can of gripes, since Del Val is the last standing legit No. 1 seed candidate in the East. Unless they want to give Hopkins a No. 1 lol. Even Wesley or Salisbury isn't going to be able to bail the East out.

In reality, if you're rooting for the East, I think you root *for* Del Val. I also think Salisbury is the potentially dangerous East team. I'd like to see how a dominant defense performs in its first shot against a perfectly-executed triple option.

Also the lack of undefeateds in the North (I think it's just Mount Union and Wabash) might necessitate an East team staying home if Del Val wins. Then again, the committee would be wise to split St. Thomas and UW-Whitewater up if possible.

Anyway, yeah, Pool C. That Redlands/St. Olaf problem solved itself, didn't it?

[K-Mack]

I am going to leave the projections to the committee.

So far, this is what I see.

South Region:  McMurry and Centre
West Region: Redlands
North Region:  CWRU and IWU
East Region:  Del Valley if they lose.

The only one I see that you might be missing is Endicott, if Del Val wins and bumps Widener. Then you have the gaggle of two-loss teams, and then 9-1 Case and 9-1 Endicott. I haven't researched how they stack up, but neither of them have a great SoS I would guess, and Endicott's loss is to a WNEC, potentially a 10-1 AQ earner, and Case's is to Rochester, who's what, like 4-5?

If I was a two-loss team, I'd certainly want to take my chances against those 9-1s and Illinois College, whose loss is 55-14 to 9-1 Monmouth.

Centre could've used some help from W&L, but Redlands definitely got it from North Central.

Redlands and IWU are your locks, and Del Val too with a loss. IMHO.

[smedindy]

Case could be undefeated in Regional Record, which erases that loss to Rochester and they'll be high on the board.

[SUADC]

I am going to leave the projections to the committee.

So far, this is what I see.

South Region:  McMurry and Centre
West Region: Redlands
North Region:  CWRU and IWU
East Region:  Del Valley if they lose.

The only one I see that you might be missing is Endicott, if Del Val wins and bumps Widener. Then you have the gaggle of two-loss teams, and then 9-1 Case and 9-1 Endicott. I haven't researched how they stack up, but neither of them have a great SoS I would guess, and Endicott's loss is to a WNEC, potentially a 10-1 AQ earner, and Case's is to Rochester, who's what, like 4-5?

If I was a two-loss team, I'd certainly want to take my chances against those 9-1s and Illinois College, whose loss is 55-14 to 9-1 Monmouth.

Centre could've used some help from W&L, but Redlands definitely got it from North Central.

Redlands and IWU are your locks, and Del Val too with a loss. IMHO.

I believe the East should be able to have one two-loss team such as Montclair St./Kean, Lycoming/Widener, St. John Fisher. If not, Endicott. Most likely, an eight seed.

[wally_wabash]

Case could be undefeated in Regional Record, which erases that loss to Rochester and they'll be high on the board.

That loss to Rochester is going to count somewhere.  Maybe not in the regional rankings, but when it comes time to select and seed, CWRU is not going to be viewed as an undefeated team.  They just can't be.  That game happened and we all know it. 

[smedindy]

But Wally, they'll be on the board ahead of Wheaton and many two loss teams because of their regional record and regional ranking. That's what I'm saying. They'll be high on the North board.

I surmise Case will be #2 on the North "C" board, with IWU #1 and either B/W or Wheaton #3. Is it the way it should be? No, but that's what happens when you emphasize regional records and have a 9-0 RR vs. a 8-2 RR.

[wally_wabash]

If CWRU is on the board ahead of Wheaton and B-W it's because they didn't lose TWICE.   Those other teams did. 

Next Sunday, that loss to Rochester is not going to be ignored.  It's going to cost CWRU the Pool B spot and it's going to put them behind IWU in the selection line. 

[smedindy]

I said they'd be behind IWU, Wally! I said they'd be #2 in the North! Yeesh.

It won't cost them the "B" either if Wesley loses to Huntingdon, which is possible.

If I had to guess now, the Top 2 on the board for each region will be:

East: Either Del Val and SJF or SJF and the Kean / Montclair loser
North: IWU and CWRU (if they are not the "B")
South: Centre and McMurry
West: Redlands and St. Olaf

[Mr. Ypsi]

Barring upsets, I'd agree that Redlands and IWU should go 1 and 2 (in that order; IWU will have a slightly superior SOS, but results against common opponent NCC should trump that), IF IWU jumps Case in the RR.  Keith scared the daylights out of me with a mock selection in ATN, using Case ahead of IWU - Case took the final C, so IWU never reached the table!

(Note: if DelVal loses to Widener, they might sneak into the top 2 with the boost to an already highly respectable SOS.)

[Pat Coleman]

Anyway, yeah, Pool C. That Redlands/St. Olaf problem solved itself, didn't it?

Yes and no. Now we won't actually know if the NCAA fixes it because its position relative to St. Olaf isn't the same.

[Ron Boerger]

If I had to guess now, the Top 2 on the board for each region will be:

East: Either Del Val and SJF or SJF and the Kean / Montclair loser
North: IWU and CWRU (if they are not the "B")
South: Centre and McMurry
West: Redlands and St. Olaf

McMurry was ahead of Centre in the regional rankings even before the Colonels lost yesterday. 

[smedindy]

Ack! I went alphabetical. You're right Ron. McMurry up first, then Centre. Both probably go. I'd say it'd be this order:

1. IWU
2. Redlands
3. Del Val or McMurry
4. McMurry or Centre
5. Centre or CWRU
6. CWRU or ?

[Mr. Ypsi]

Some of the 1-loss teams appear to be pretty weak.  IF it gets to 2-loss teams, who is in best shape?

I haven't studied that question real closely, but suspect it would be Wheaton by the listed criteria; Bald-Wally if human decision-making takes a major role.  Thoughts?