Author Topic: D3Baseball.com All-Americans  (Read 6919 times)

Offline CrashDavisD3

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Re: D3Baseball.com All-Americans
« Reply #15 on: May 25, 2012, 09:24:39 am »
I do not know who I would replace him with, but I am baffled by the 2nd Team All-American SS selection. While he clearly had a good offensive and defensive year, he finished with 0 HR's and 27 RBI's. Now, I can see someone getting on the AA Team with those numbers if they were a base stealing machine; however, he only had 11 SB's on the year. The kid that got Honorable Mention SS finished with a higher batting average (.380 vs .362), more HR's by a landslide (14 vs 0), and RBI's (49 vs 27). He also scored more runs, but that certainly has a direct correlation to number of at bats, hitters behind you, etc. I have seen kids in the USA South have better years offensively and not even make the All Conference Team (ex: Jesse Henry, Shenandoah, 2010).

2nd Team All American Selection:
SS John Adornetto, Cortland State  Jr.  .362  40  50  9  2  0  27  11  .963
Honorable Mention All American Selection:
SS Corey Marchant, Manchester  Jr.  .380  53  73  7  2  14  49  6  .937
With the respect to Fielding Average, I don't think that the percentage number reflects the diffference in real quality.

I look at the inverse of that equation, the number of errors per chance.

Adornetto had 7 errors in 189 chances which is 1 per 27.

Merchant had 17 errors in 271 chances which rounds to 1 error in 16 chances.

Up the middle, I like defense!

In fact, I would prefer the stat to be changed to reflect the errors to chance ratio.

1:16 is  .937

1:27 is  .963

1:40 in .975

See how much different that the numbers "look" for the quality "gained"!


As for HR's, Manchester hit 34 on the season (0.69 HR/g) , their opponents hit 24.

Cortland hit 18 HR's and opponents hit 6. 

In fact Manchester looks like a hitters' park. Manchester played 19 games at home, 20 away and 10 games on neutral fields.  Merchant hit 9 of his 14 HR's at home (0.47 HR /g at home).  He hit 5 HR's in 30 games away from home (0.17 HR/ g).

Manchester hit (by my count) 15 HRs in 19 games (0.79 HR/g) Manchester foes hit 13 HR's at Manchester in those 19 games.  Away from home,  Manchester hit 19 Hrs in 30 games (0.63 HR/game).

It is hard to look at fielding percentage or errors per chance as a real indicator of defensive value.  Defense is a very hard statistic to accurately value, but the thing that jumps out to me here is that Merchant got to 82 more balls than Adornetto did.  That is considerably more opportunities.  Are these plays that Adornetto would have gotten to?  I don't know the answer to that question, but it begs the question, doesn't it.

The problem with looking at the error statistic is it is a judgement stat.  Maybe Merchant has a much tougher scorer, while Adornetto's scorer tends to default the way of a hit.

I am not trying to say either is a better defender, as I have not had the opportunity to see either play.  However, IMO using the error stat is a very flawed way of examining the data.
Batting Average is also can be impacted. Stats are subject to personal opinion of the scorer. So all stats are flawed to some degree so the argument makes no sense
Hit or no hit is also a judgement stat. Some hits should have been errors, some errors should have been hits.
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Offline CCIWFAN6

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Re: D3Baseball.com All-Americans
« Reply #16 on: May 25, 2012, 10:13:42 am »
Thats why my point was based upon the fact that Marchant has 82 more chances in roughly a 40 game season.