Author Topic: BB: Top Teams in West Region  (Read 254451 times)

Offline Ron Boerger

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Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
« Reply #2115 on: March 14, 2018, 09:12:20 am »
Just another data point - always interesting to see the differences early in season:

American Baseball Coaches Assn. Baseball Poll
(As of March 13, 2018)
Rank   Team (2018 Record)   Points   PVS
1.   Mass.-Boston (6-1)   467   5
2.   Trinity (TX) (10-1)   400   RV
3.   Rowan, NJ (6-1)   381   36
4.   Wooster, OH (1-0)   371   9
5.   Washington & Jefferson, PA (6-2)   354   13
6.   Wisc.-Whitewater (0-0)   351   18
7.   Concordia-Chicago, IL (7-2)   339   6
8.   North Central, IL (2-0)   287   4
9.   Roanoke, VA (10-3)   264   10
10.   Methodist, NC (17-2)   246   RV
11.   St. Scholastica, MN (3-0)   155   23
12.   Randolph-Macon, VA (8-2)   153   RV
13.   Oswego St., NY (4-2)   150   15
14.   Redlands, CA (13-4)   146   RV
15.   George Fox, OR (14-6)   143   
16.   Christopher Newport, VA (12-4)   129   RV
17.   Texas Lutheran (15-3)   127   RV
18.   Maryville, TN (17-3)   126   
19.   Frostburg St., MD (10-1)   124   
20.   Southern Maine (1-1)   118   11
21.   La Roche, PA (7-3)   109   31
22.   Berry, GA (12-4)   108   
23.   Case Western Reserve, OH (5-1)   107   RV
24.   Wheaton, MA (4-2)   105   27
25.   Cortland St., NY (5-5)   103   1
26.   Wisc.-La Crosse (2-1)   82   38
27.   Webster, MO (5-2)   75   
28.   Pomona-Pitzer, CA (13-4)   73   
29.   Catholic, D.C. (11-0)   70   RV
30.   Shenandoah, VA (7-3)   68   16

Also Receiving Votes: Millsaps, MS (67), Wartburg, IA (66), Marietta, OH (65), Earlham, IN (62), Babson, MA (61), Johns Hopkins, MD (45), Salisbury, MD (41), Chapman, CA (40), Concordia, TX (32), Misericordia, PA (29), Heidelberg, OH (28), Spalding, KY (27), Cal. Lutheran (25), Arcadia, PA (24), Baldwin Wallace, OH (23), Centenary, LA (21), Salve Regina, R.I. (19), Tufts, MA (18), Franklin, IN (13), Otterbein, OH (11), Mitchell, CT (9), Hood, MD (7), Washington, MO (7), Rhodes, TN (6), Texas-Tyler (3), Whitworth, WA (3), Alvernia, PA (2), Illinois Wesleyan (2), Texas-Dallas (2), Ithaca, NY (1).

Offline SoCalSoxFan

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Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
« Reply #2116 on: March 14, 2018, 01:37:16 pm »
Congratulations to CLU's Coach Marty Slimak for his 700th win yesterday!!


THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. California Lutheran head baseball coach Marty Slimak got his 700th win as the Kingsmen defeated the Ithaca Bombers 6-3 Tuesday afternoon at Ullman Stadium.

Coach Slimak got his 700th win in his 25th season at the helm of the Kingsmen. He is the 35th coach at the Division III level to accumulate 700 wins. On top of all the wins, the Kingsmen also won the 2017 NCAA World Series. They have six World Series appearances, 15 West Regional appearances and 14 SCIAC Championships.

Offline Pirat

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Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
« Reply #2117 on: March 14, 2018, 03:40:04 pm »
My top teams
ASC: Concordia University Texas, Texas-Tyler, Texas-Dallas
Conference winning percentage .523 3nd  in region.  Average conference schedule strength 186th in country.
NWC: Whitworth, George Fox, Linfield 
Conference winning percentage .485 4th in region.  Average conference schedule strength 174th in country.
SCAC: Trinity, Texas Lutheran, Centenary
Conference winning percentage .594 1st in region.  Average conference schedule strength 182nd in country.
SCIAC: Redlands, Chapman, Cal Lutheran
Conference winning percentage .581 2nd in region.  Average conference schedule strength 166th in country.   

Significant series this weekend. Texas-Tyler & Texas-Dallas.  Whitworth & Pacific Lutheran.

Offline 108 Stitches

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Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
« Reply #2118 on: March 14, 2018, 04:11:44 pm »
Top 40 based on Massy
https://www.masseyratings.com/cbase/11620/ratings

I picked out the top 10 SoS from the West just as a reference as it should help when the Regional rankings come out later in the season.

                                    SoS
1. Trinity TX
2. TX Lutheran

3. Rowan
4. Redlands
5. MA Boston
6. Concordia IL
7. Randolph Macon
8. St Scholastica
9. Webster Univ
10. Earlham
11. Whitworth     3
12. Marietta
13. Franklin IN
14 Babson
15. Methodist
16. Baldwin-Wallace
17. Bethel MN
18. George Fox
19. Denison
20 North Coast AC
21. Case Western
22. Linfield                 5
23. Concordia TX

24. Endicott
25. Pac Lutheran         9
26. UT Tyler
              4
27. Salve Regina
28. Millsaps
29. Hood
30 Chapman
31. Arcadia
32. NE W&M
33. Catholic
34. IL Wesleyan
35. St John's MN
36. Centenary      7
37. Berry
38 Mitchell
39. Millikin
40. Frostburg St


Offline Jack Parkman

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Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
« Reply #2119 on: March 14, 2018, 06:05:13 pm »
Top 40 based on Massy
https://www.masseyratings.com/cbase/11620/ratings

I picked out the top 10 SoS from the West just as a reference as it should help when the Regional rankings come out later in the season.

                                    SoS
1. Trinity TX
2. TX Lutheran

3. Rowan
4. Redlands
5. MA Boston
6. Concordia IL
7. Randolph Macon
8. St Scholastica
9. Webster Univ
10. Earlham
11. Whitworth     3
12. Marietta
13. Franklin IN
14 Babson
15. Methodist
16. Baldwin-Wallace
17. Bethel MN
18. George Fox
19. Denison
20 North Coast AC
21. Case Western
22. Linfield                 5
23. Concordia TX

24. Endicott
25. Pac Lutheran         9
26. UT Tyler
              4
27. Salve Regina
28. Millsaps
29. Hood
30 Chapman
31. Arcadia
32. NE W&M
33. Catholic
34. IL Wesleyan
35. St John's MN
36. Centenary      7
37. Berry
38 Mitchell
39. Millikin
40. Frostburg St

Using the SOS that the NCAA uses it would look much different.  There are other schools that are much higher than the bottom on this list but this is simply as a comparison between Massey and the NCAA rankings.

34. UT-Tyler
38. Chapman
54. Redlands
82. Concordia (TX)
85. Whitworth
96. Trinity
107. Centenary
109. Linfield
153. Pacific Lutheran
167. Texas Lutheran
220. George Fox

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
« Reply #2120 on: March 14, 2018, 07:56:59 pm »
I am a little late to the party but the rankings will figure themselves out over the next few weeks.  Was Cal Lu overrated coming into the season?  Absolutely.  Should they still be getting votes after the performance they have shown?  Absolutely not.  They are having a similar start to what Trinity had in 2017.  Trinity started the year at #7, even after losing a majority of their team, just like Cal Lu.  By the 2nd poll, Trinity was out of the top 25.  By the final poll, Trinity received a total of 0 votes.  Does that make both teams terrible?  Not one bit, they just had massive expectations after winning it all.  I am sure there are plenty of coaches and players in the SCIAC that are happy as a pig in sh*t right now because Cal Lu is really struggling.  I don't blame them one bit simply because they have dominated the conference for about 25 years, save a few years where they were a .500 team.  Regardless of all of that, nobody will ever take away what they did last year.

As far as the rest of the West, it's a total crap shoot.  There have been some pretty good performances and some not good performances.  Here are the SOS numbers for the teams that seem to be on everyone's mind at this point.

31- UT Tyler
44- Chapman
71- Cal Lu
74- Redlands
79- Whitworth
92- Trinity
94- Concordia
126- Linfield
149- Centenary
158- UT Dallas
166- Pomona
174- Texas Lutheran
188- George Fox

The sample-size at this point isn't huge, but these numbers will absolutely matter in the eyes of the voters.  Still a ton of baseball to be played but I think the picture will be much more clear by April 1.
March 12, 2018
ASC - Louisiana College 11-3 Concordia Texas 12-6
NWC - Pacific Lutheran 8-2
SCAC - Trinity Texas 10-1 Texas Lutheran 15-3
SCIAC - Pomona Pitzer 13-4 Redlands 13-4
Thanks Mike.

TLU has beaten everyone they should have including a beautiful road sweep of UTD. The "ugly" on that record is being swept at home by UTT.

I am suspicious of LaCollege's 11-3. Eight of those wins were against NAIA teams of uncertain strength.

Offline (509)Rat

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Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
« Reply #2121 on: March 18, 2018, 05:52:54 pm »
Whitworth is about to get swept by PLU the weekend after playing so well against Fox. As is the story most seasons for the Pirates, consistency is an issue for this team.

Offline Jack Parkman

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Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
« Reply #2122 on: March 19, 2018, 01:06:49 pm »
I was looking at the Massey ratings compared to the D3/NCAA SOS numbers and it really shows a huge difference.  For example, Centenary shows a Massey SOS of 29 but the D3/NCAA SOS shows 202.  Why such a huge difference?

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
« Reply #2123 on: March 19, 2018, 01:54:23 pm »
I was looking at the Massey ratings compared to the D3/NCAA SOS numbers and it really shows a huge difference.  For example, Centenary shows a Massey SOS of 29 but the D3/NCAA SOS shows 202.  Why such a huge difference?
My speculation is that Massey follows all games in its calculations and so games against D2, D1 and NAIA impact the rating.  Massey has always (at least in the last 10-15 years of my following him) "over-validated" the West Region relative to the NCAA.

Offline 108 Stitches

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Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
« Reply #2124 on: March 19, 2018, 04:06:41 pm »
Jack,

Post a link to the NCAA SoS. Ralph I know Massey has traditionally upranked the West early in the season, but it tended to even out once all teams got in 25 games or so. I don't get the Centenary figures as they have only played NCAA Div III teams...

Offline Jack Parkman

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Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
« Reply #2125 on: March 19, 2018, 04:36:07 pm »
Jack,

Post a link to the NCAA SoS. Ralph I know Massey has traditionally upranked the West early in the season, but it tended to even out once all teams got in 25 games or so. I don't get the Centenary figures as they have only played NCAA Div III teams...

http://d3baseball.com/seasons/2018/schedule?tmpl=sos-template

Here is a quick breakdown of the top 50 in the West in the Massey Ratings vs the SOS:

                   Massey Rating                      NCAA SOS
Trinity               1                                                 116
TLU                  4                                                 183
Redlands          11                                                22
PLU                 16                                                164
UT Tyler           22                                                23
Concordia        24                                                 89
Chapman         27                                                 29
Whitworth        30                                                 85
Louisiana Col.   32                                                254
UT Dallas         34                                                 52
Pomona           39                                                 124
Centenary        40                                                 202
Linfield             42                                                163
Cal Lu              48                                                 62

Offline Purple Heys

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Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
« Reply #2126 on: March 19, 2018, 05:27:14 pm »
I was looking at the Massey ratings compared to the D3/NCAA SOS numbers and it really shows a huge difference.  For example, Centenary shows a Massey SOS of 29 but the D3/NCAA SOS shows 202.  Why such a huge difference?
My speculation is that Massey follows all games in its calculations and so games against D2, D1 and NAIA impact the rating.  Massey has always (at least in the last 10-15 years of my following him) "over-validated" the West Region relative to the NCAA.

This just in:  UW-W preserves their top ten D3baseball.com ranking by electing to not play any games this season.   :D
You can't leave me....all the plants will die.

Offline Ron Boerger

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Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
« Reply #2127 on: March 20, 2018, 08:31:02 am »
Not a good week for the west in the D3baseball Top 25:

Through games of Sunday March 18, 2018

#   School (1st votes)   Rec   Pts   Prev.
1   Mass-Boston (12)   9-2   593   1
2   Trinity (Texas) (4)   14-1   578   5
3   UW-Whitewater (4)   0-0   564   2
4   Methodist (3)   20-3   504   8
5   Rowan (1)   11-1   501   11
6   Concordia-Chicago (1)   9-3   492   7
7   Wooster   5-2   437   6
8   Roanoke   13-3   429   9
9   Frostburg State   11-2   374   14
10   Randolph-Macon   12-2   335   17
11   Washington and Jefferson   7-4   311   3
12   Cortland   9-6   299   10
13   Christopher Newport   14-4   295   16
14   Catholic   14-1   248   19
15   Baldwin Wallace   13-3   227   18
16   Shenandoah   9-4   221   13
17   Oswego State   8-5   186   12
18   Case Western Reserve   10-1   153   rv
19   Texas Lutheran   17-4   135   rv
20   TCNJ   8-2   123   rv
21   Marietta   9-2   117   rv
22   Webster   9-3   88   rv
23   North Central (Ill.)   2-4   87   4
24   Redlands   16-6   69   25
25   La Roche   9-3   66   rv
Dropped out: No. 15 Southern Maine, No. 20 Centenary (La.), No. 21 Johns Hopkins, No. 22. St. Scholastica, No. 23. Texas-Tyler, No. 24 George Fox.

Others receiving votes: Southern Maine 66, Spalding 55, Salisbury 51, Johns Hopkins 44, Mount Union 43, Maryville (Tenn.) 42, Millsaps 37, St. Scholastica 31, UW-Oshkosh 27, Centenary (La.) 25, UW-La Crosse 19, New York Univ. 18, Alvernia 16, Cal Lutheran 14, Otterbein 14, Mitchell 13, St. Thomas (Minn.) 13, Concordia (Texas) 12, Babson 12, Saint John's (Minn.) 11, Wartburg 11, George Fox 11, Heidelberg 10, Berry 10, UMass-Dartmouth 10, Piedmont 7, Franklin 7, Endicott 6, Arcadia 5, Bethel (Minn.) 5, Pomona-Pitzer 4, Washington Univ. 3, Earlham 2, Illnois Wesleyan 2, Hood 1, Texas-Tyler 1.

Offline 108 Stitches

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Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
« Reply #2128 on: March 20, 2018, 10:34:27 am »
I don't see multiple dominant teams in each conference like there has been in the past, certainly seems like a down year overall. PLU should be in the top 25, and if they keep playing well they will make the list in a week or two. At this point Trinity seems like the only strong West team, the rest... meh. Won't really know about TLU, Centenary, Redlands and Pomona until later in the season.

Offline Jim Dixon

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Re: BB: Top Teams in West Region
« Reply #2129 on: March 20, 2018, 10:54:05 am »
I was looking at the Massey ratings compared to the D3/NCAA SOS numbers and it really shows a huge difference.  For example, Centenary shows a Massey SOS of 29 but the D3/NCAA SOS shows 202.  Why such a huge difference?
My speculation is that Massey follows all games in its calculations and so games against D2, D1 and NAIA impact the rating.  Massey has always (at least in the last 10-15 years of my following him) "over-validated" the West Region relative to the NCAA.

This just in:  UW-W preserves their top ten D3baseball.com ranking by electing to not play any games this season.   :D

UWW finally drops as Trinity's play gets them into a second ranking.  But on why I post: The SOS for D3baseball.com  uses regionally ranked games only.  Basically it is any game between D-III teams but the rules for what games are regional games is unnecessarily complex.  For instance if a team takes two trips outside their region and play a team that is 200 miles or more, it is possible for that to be a non-regional game.  Financial concerns usually prevent this oddity.

I think Austin last year played a lot of non-D-III opponents, so many that they would have required a waiver if they made the playoffs but their play on the field made this a non issue.