Pool C -- 2012

[K-Mack]

Just kicking this over to here since we have two new full pages since Tuesday, but I'm referring people to this thread from ATN. This is the best place to start if you're just taking your first look at the playoff picture, although take note of Wally's "this is as of now" qualifications.

New projection, including results through 10/13:

Pool A's, changes from last week in bold:

League	Team
ASC	UMHB
CC	Johns Hopkins
CCIW	IWU
ECFC	Mount Ida
E8	Salisbury
HCAC	Franklin
IIAC	Coe
LL	Hobart
MIAA	Adrian
MAC	Widener
MWC	Lake Forest
MIAC	St. Thomas
NEFC	Salve Regina
NJAC	Rowan
NCAC	Ohio Wesleyan
NAC	Concordia-Chicago
NWC	Linfield
OAC	Mount Union
ODAC	Washington & Lee
PAC	Waynesburg
SCIAC	Cal Lutheran
UMAC	Northwestern
USAC	Christopher Newport
WIAC	UW Whitewater

W&L seized control of the ODAC with their win over Randolph Macon last weekend.  Gallaudet's loss to Norwich sort of throws the ECFC into flux.  I've now projected Mount Ida there, but really you can use any ECFC placeholder as that is now going to be a one-bid league. 

Pool B: This bid comes down to Wesley/Huntingdon on 10/27 (btw, Huntingdon has two bye weeks heading into that game...that's a long layoff before stepping on the field with Wesley...at least they don't have to travel).  Birmingham Southern's loss to Trinity has pretty much knocked them out of this.  Carnegie Mellon and Millsaps are still lurking if Wesley loses and Huntingdon loses a non-Wesley game, but then Trinity's 2-loss resume actually starts to look good with lots of good wins.  I'm straying too far from the bid here.  Wesley is the pick until further notice. 

Pool C: Just to give you an idea of how fluid this projection is, three of my seven Pool C teams from last week lost their way out: SJF, Otterbein, Birmingham-Southern.  And none of those teams are even close at this point.  That's how valuable every game is.  Here are the picks for this week, in order of selection:

Willamette
UW-Oshkosh
Bethel
Heidelberg
Wabash
Huntingdon
RPI

The West gets really interesting in the next couple of weeks.  Oshkosh and Whitewater this weekend, Willamette and Linfield next weekend.  Only Whitewater doesn't have a game to play with; selection gets VERY interesting if Oshkosh beats  Whitewater and we have to consider a 2-loss team with an average SOS, just one quality win, and the last three natiional championships (which is not a criteria, but can people resist the urge to consider it). 

Selection was a little strange this week because Heidelberg's painful SOS forced me to consider 1-loss teams in front of them, despite their quality win over Otterbein.  Ultimately, Bethel made the cut in front of Heidelberg, Simpson/RPI/Huntingdon did not.  Alfred has played RPI's way onto the list and RPI was the last selection for me this week.  Last three on the table (in no particular order) were Simpson, Franklin & Marshall, and North Central.  This was a HARD choice and I think you could reasonably take North Central or F&M instead of RPI if you wanted to.  All three teams have a quality win and fairly similar SOS's at the moment.  Interestingly, I don't think any of these teams will be Pool C candidates after 11/10.  All three of these teams (NCC/RPI/F&M) are either going to win their league's AQ or wind up with too many losses to be legitimately involved in the Pool C process.

[smedindy]

Ok, now comes the test. Assuming Whitewater wins out, and assuming nothing wacky happens to Oshkosh, will the committee not invite Whitewater to the playoffs with two losses?

[SUADC]

Ok, now comes the test. Assuming Whitewater wins out, and assuming nothing wacky happens to Oshkosh, will the committee not invite Whitewater to the playoffs with two losses?

I was thinking the same thing, I have seen many good teams in the past, including my Seagulls in 2008 get left out due to the other Pool C candidates either losing one game with the loses to good teams. I think the lost to Buffalo State hurts, considering where Buff St. is currently. The west currently has Cal Lutheran, Linfield, Oskosh, St. Thomas, Coe, (Miac runner-up), UMAC champion, Lake Forest.

[hazzben]

Ok, now comes the test. Assuming Whitewater wins out, and assuming nothing wacky happens to Oshkosh, will the committee not invite Whitewater to the playoffs with two losses?

I was thinking the same thing, I have seen many good teams in the past, including my Seagulls in 2008 get left out due to the other Pool C candidates either losing one game with the loses to good teams. I think the lost to Buffalo State hurts, considering where Buff St. is currently. The west currently has Cal Lutheran, Linfield, Oskosh, St. Thomas, Coe, (Miac runner-up), UMAC champion, Lake Forest.

Here's a weird thought, could Concordia-Moorehead get in with 2 losses (assuming UST beats them) before UWW? Especially given the nature of their 1st 'loss' to Bethel?

They'd probably have the better 'criteria' resume with results against two probable RR opponents and SOS (#23 v. #102 for UWW coming into this week). A lot depends on how they perform against UST in two weeks.

[hazzben]

West has 4 unbeatens left. UWO, UST, Linfield and Coe.

Cobbers defeat Augsburg and have a clash against UST in two weeks.

Whitewater picks up its second loss.

RPI and Alfred both have 2 losses now.

Simpson has a reality check with loss #2.

Rowan picks up its first DIII loss and now is in the Pool C mix.

Widener holds on, beats their last big regular season test and stays out of the Pool C mix.

OWU v. Wabash next week is a big one. Weird scenario if Wabash wins. 3 NCAC teams with one loss, but Wittenberg won't play OWU.

Willamette loses to PLU with Linfield still to play.

Hobart is impressing out East, and seem like a solid #1 option, but how do you leave 3-4 unbeatens in the West, 1-2 in the North and only 1 in the East?

[smedindy]

The Wesley / Huntingdon loser could be on the board before UW-W. They will have two losses but two quality losses (UMHB for Wesley, BSC for Huntingdon). I think we'll need to see the first regional rankings, but UW-W definitely isn't in a good spot now.

[wally_wabash]

Two losses is still not ideal, however, it seems like more and more teams are getting into the last three weeks of the season having lost once already.  It may be that we exhaust 1-loss teams before we get through Pool C selection in November. 

I'll have a new projection later tonight.  I need to at least wait until the 7:00 pm CCIW games are done.  Praise be to up-to-the-minute SOS figures from d3football.com! 

[smedindy]

The question may be a bleah one-loss team (say, OWU if they lose to Wabash, as the Bishops won't have a great resume outside of CMU) or a two-loss team like Huntingdon.

[wally_wabash]

I've overestimated the number of 1-loss teams left.  I've got 14 teams left with one loss on my Pool C list.  Some of those will wind up winning their league or falling out of Pool C, so the realistic number is probably slightly less than that.  Two loss teams are very likely to be in play on selection Sunday. 

[HSCTiger74]

The Wesley / Huntingdon loser could be on the board before UW-W. They will have two losses but two quality losses (UMHB for Wesley, BSC for Huntingdon). I think we'll need to see the first regional rankings, but UW-W definitely isn't in a good spot now.

After today's results there appears to be a little less quality in that loss than we thought.

[smedindy]

Ooof.....BSC must have had a huge let-down, and the SAA may be one of those 'eat their own' conferences.

[K-Mack]

Ok, now comes the test. Assuming Whitewater wins out, and assuming nothing wacky happens to Oshkosh, will the committee not invite Whitewater to the playoffs with two losses?

I was thinking the same thing, I have seen many good teams in the past, including my Seagulls in 2008 get left out due to the other Pool C candidates either losing one game with the loses to good teams. I think the lost to Buffalo State hurts, considering where Buff St. is currently. The west currently has Cal Lutheran, Linfield, Oskosh, St. Thomas, Coe, (Miac runner-up), UMAC champion, Lake Forest.

Here's a weird thought, could Concordia-Moorehead get in with 2 losses (assuming UST beats them) before UWW? Especially given the nature of their 1st 'loss' to Bethel?

They'd probably have the better 'criteria' resume with results against two probable RR opponents and SOS (#23 v. #102 for UWW coming into this week). A lot depends on how they perform against UST in two weeks.

The Wesley / Huntingdon loser could be on the board before UW-W. They will have two losses but two quality losses (UMHB for Wesley, BSC for Huntingdon). I think we'll need to see the first regional rankings, but UW-W definitely isn't in a good spot now.

Among two-loss teams, I'd put Pacific Lutheran at the top of the heap, followed by LC.

PLU's SoS number was No. 2 when I looked earlier this evening, and their losses are to two likely conf champs, in Cal Lu and Linfield, plus they actually beat somebody (Willamette).

LC's losses are to UMHB, Wesley, with wins vs. Sul Ross and they'd need to beat Hardin-Simmons. Won't be quite as impressive.

Huntingdon/Wesley loser could be in very good shape if Pool C is weak enough. No way to know that yet.

Then I see UW-W, et. al. ... a lot needs to happen to save the Warhawks, unless the committee simply looks the other way on the non-region game with Buff State, which is possible under the criteria. They might feel compelled to make the playoffs "fair" by including the Warhawks (though someone else might unfairly be excluded), but a lot depends on how teams finish and how strong the comparative resumes are.

Concordia-Moorhead should just beat St. Thomas. Problem solved.

Rowan is in effect a one-loss team, because of Merrimack.

The problem with leading the two-loss group after Week 8 is that they're going to get some company.

[wally_wabash]

Projections through 10/20...

Pool A, changes from last week in bold:

League	Team
ASC	UMHB
CC	Johns Hopkins
CCIW	North Central
ECFC	Mount Ida
E8	Salisbury
HCAC	Franklin
IIAC	Coe
LL	Hobart
MIAA	Adrian
MAC	Widener
MWC	Lake Forest
MIAC	St. Thomas
NEFC	Salve Regina
NJAC	Cortland State
NCAC	Ohio Wesleyan
NAC	Concordia-Chicago
NWC	Linfield
OAC	Mount Union
ODAC	Washington & Lee
PAC	Waynesburg
SCIAC	Cal Lutheran
UMAC	Northwestern
USAC	Christopher Newport
WIAC	UW-Oshkosh

North Central, Cortland State, and UW-Oshkosh slide into Pool A this week.  I left W&L and Salve Regina in Pool A despite their losses this week...in reality, those leagues are likely one bid leagues at this point so it isn't super relevant to the at-large discussion below.  The changes that were made do have a major impact on Pool C as you'll see below. 

Pool B: Wesley remains the pick and they will be having a Pool B title game with Huntingdon in a couple of weeks.  Pool B, for all of the strength that we read into it at the beginning of the year has totally cannibalized itself.  We may not get the Pool B overflow into Pool C that looked imminent before. 

Pool C: The pool is shrinking...but we aren't too far away from the pool having shrunk to the point where we have to really consider 2-loss teams which of course crowds the pool all over again.  Here are the selections this week, in order:
Bethel
Huntingdon
Willamette
Heidelberg
Wabash
Rowan
Elmhurst

Despite the loss today, Willamette still has an overwhelming SOS and can't be ignored.  A second loss to Linfield will put them out of the salacious seven though.  Heidelberg is the only undefeated team left in the Pool C conversation.  So why weren't they first off the board?  Otterbein is no longer a quality win (that didn't take long) and their SOS is significantly less than the teams selected ahead of them (over 0.200 less which is massive).  So Heidelberg jams things up on the North tableau a bit (that'll change when they lose a game).  What else is there...ah yes.  Rowan.  Rowan has 2 losses, but one is D2 and we've set precedent that you can flatly ignore that result.  The only other 1-loss Pool C candidate in the East is Bridgewater State.  The résumés are closer than you might think, but Rowan gets the nod.  Finally, Elmhurst is the last team in.  IWU losing not only knocked them out of Pool A, but all the way out of the field.  Elmhurst's win against Wheaton (common opponent) and a superior SOS puts them ahead of IWU on the North tableau.  In fact, IWU actually falls behind Wittenberg on my North list.  The last three on the board are (in no particular order) Millsaps, Bridgewater State, and  Chapman.  Full disclosure, I did take some futures liberty with Concordia-Moorhead, which I should probably stop doing now that there aren't an abundance of 1-loss teams.  Next week I'll consider multiple teams from the same league. 

[wally_wabash]

So...whither the Warhawks? I currently have them buried in the West region.  If every Pool C team came from the West, the Warhawks would still not make my projected field.  I currently have them sitting behind the west teams in the salacious seven above as well as: Concordia-Moorhead, Chapman, Pacific Lutheran, Whitworth, and Illinois College.  I would entertain a debate about Whitewater being placed in front of IC, but there really isn't a good, criteria-based reason to have them any higher than that.  And that's just in the West. 

Other two loss teams (already noted PLU and Whitworth) that are on my Pool C radar that I think grade out better than Whitewater include (in no particular order):
SJF
Alfred
RPI
Lycoming
Louisiana College
Wheaton

There is the matter of Buffalo State being out of region.  It would be an absolute shame if the committee bent that rule in a way that unduly benefits Whitewater.  CWRU was very obviously kept out of last year's tournament because they lost an out of region game.  Wabash was kept out in 2010 because they lost an out of region game.  To do a 180 on that this year smacks of favoritism and I really, really hope that doesn't happen.  If in 22 days Whitewater has one of the best seven at-large résumés, then awesome.  But don't let it be because they choose to ignore a D3 result.  The idea of regionality is absurd in the current climate of "administrative regions".  Whitewater lost, at home, to a team that's going to finish in the bottom half of the E8.  The E8 isn't a bad league, but you just can't lose that game, plus another one, and expect to get in without an abundance of quality wins, which Whitewater does not have.  [/end rant]

[K-Mack]

OWU v. Wabash next week is a big one. Weird scenario if Wabash wins. 3 NCAC teams with one loss, but Wittenberg won't play OWU.

They'll wish they had. Playing another team with a great record is a chance for a win over a regionally ranked opponent, and a big boost to SoS.