Pool C -- 2012

[ExTartanPlayer]

It's a shame that these student-athletes, all of them at B-W, get punished for somebody else's mistake.  These kids didn't do a thing wrong.

I agree, and this sentiment can be extended to most, if not all, of the major college football scandals as well (USC, Penn State, and so forth).

[wally_wabash]

They are out.  Working on a projection right now...should have it ready shortly. 

[desertcat1]

nice scoop wally 

[wally_wabash]

Ok, here it goes.  First projection with published regional rankings...and some teams caught breaks here, some teams didn't.  More on that in a minute.  First, Pool A...changes from last week in bold, clinched bids in italics:

League	Team
ASC	UMHB
CC	Johns Hopkins
CCIW	North Central
ECFC	Mount Ida
E8	Salisbury
HCAC	Franklin
IIAC	Coe
LL	Hobart
MIAA	Adrian
MAC	Widener
MWC	Lake Forest
MIAC	St. Thomas
NEFC	Salve Regina
NJAC	Cortland State
NCAC	Wittenberg
NAC	Concordia-Chicago
NWC	Linfield
OAC	Mount Union
ODAC	Washington & Lee
PAC	Waynesburg
SCIAC	Cal Lutheran
UMAC	Northwestern
USAC	Christopher Newport
WIAC	UW-Oshkosh

The NCAC tiebreak, for right now as I think I understand it, favors Wittenberg.  So they are projected in here.  That's the only real change from last week.  Cortland State and Oshkosh clinched their bids on Saturday. 

Pool B: Pool B was decided when Wesley defeated Huntingdon on Saturday.  Wesley's D3 résumé is now complete and there is no way that they will be surpassed by anybody for this bid.  Congrats, Wolverines. 

Pool C: Ok, I'm not excluding Concordia-Moorhead this week.  Here are the selections, in order of choice:

Wabash (7-1, 0.607 SOS, 2-0 vs RRO)
Bethel (7-1, 0.658 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)
Concordia-Moorhead (7-1, .577 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
Huntingdon (5-2, .605 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)
Elmhurst (7-1, 0.545 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
Rowan (6-2...6-1 in D3, 0.508 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
Heidelberg (7-1, 0.430 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)

...which leaves PLU, Lycoming, and Louisiana College on the table when the pickin' is done. 

A couple of things to note here about Pool C. Huntingdon caught a huge break with Hampden-Sydney and Adrian being ranked this week.  Both could lose games on Saturday and disappear...but it matters not.  Huntingdon gets those results now and that's what is keeping them in front of LC in the South.  Not that LC didn't get thrown a bone here either because they did with Hardin-Simmons getting ranked.  Win that and LC becomes very attractive.  If any of those 2-loss teams left after the Heidelberg choice had a RRO win, I would have selected them instead.  PLU kind of got the short end of the stick here with Willamette and Whitworth both absent from these rankings. 

One thing that I'm doing here is really valuing quality wins.  If you've shown me that you can actually beat a quality team (as sort-of arbitrarily defined by these rankings), then you get a lot of traction with me.  Every team out here in Pool C and the Pool C bubble has proven that they can lose a game (or two)...they wouldn't be here if they didn't.  I think one of the biggest things that should separate those teams is whether or not they've proven that they can WIN games against good teams.  That's my subjective slant on this. 

So there it is for consumption.  Enjoy!

[desertcat1]

Wally ,

 With only three teams with wins vs rro , Plu has the best lose with rro (#3 linfield ,  # 8 CLU) and a . higher  SOS 6140. than the other Pool C teams  as i see it?   what did i miss?   

[MonroviaCat]

Wally ,

 With only three teams with wins vs rro , Plu has the best lose with rro and a . higher  SOS 6140. than the other Pool C teams  as i see it?   what did i miss?   

Loss to RRO is not a criteria for selection my friend--as they say every year--it's not who you lose to, it's who you beat.  Oh it also has to do with how teams are selected--They are not all thrown in one pot based on the criteria but each Region brings their first team in and if that team is taken then the next team gets selected vs. other teams on the other regions list (or something like that).  I think PLU could still get in (if everything stayed the same as it is right now), but they could certainly use some help.....

[Pat Coleman]

Right -- losing to an RRO is better than not playing one at all (hence all those teams ranked ahead of Coe) but it's not better than beating one. Plus, not all RROs are the same and it's important to note that. Losing to No. 1 in a region is better than losing to No. 8.

[CalLuforLife]

Thanks for doing that, Wally. Informative stuff...but I hope you're wrong about PLU 

[d-train]

Clearly PLU needs the Tommies to soundly defeat Concordia-Moorhead so they have a chance to get to the table right after Bethel is selected.  It wouldn't hurt if one or two of the other teams listed picked put another loss (like Rowan or Heidelberg).  Would also help if the Bearcats sneak in at #10 next week (or week 11?).  The Lutes do have that strong SOS, which won't drop this week by playing Whitworth.

[MonroviaCat]

I know there are a two week of football left before this all officially matters but are we looking (based on Wally's predictions) at flying a team to Oregon and to Texas? 

[wally_wabash]

Wally ,

 With only three teams with wins vs rro , Plu has the best lose with rro (#3 linfield ,  # 8 CLU) and a . higher  SOS 6140. than the other Pool C teams  as i see it?   what did i miss?   

Generally speaking, the selection commitees have valued not losing in front of losing twice, even if those losses are to RROs.  Hence my selections of Huntingdon (two losses, but did beat a RRO), Elmhurst (not two losses), Rowan (not two losses), and Heidelberg (not two losses) in front of PLU.  Right now, you could defnitely make a pretty solid case for PLU instead of Heidelberg because the SOS difference is so huge...but you could make a better case if PLU had a win over a RRO.  I know the criteria doesn't specify "wins" against RROs but rather "results" against RROs, but are PLU's losses to Linfield and Cal Lutheran any better or worse than Heidelberg's loss to Mount Union?  I don't think we can really judge that. 

As I noted, PLU probalby more than anybody got the short end of the deal with today's rankings.  No Willamette.  No Whitworth.  If either of those are ranked today, I'd probably project PLU in and not Heidelberg. 

[K-Mack]

MWC - Lake Forest can clinch with a St. Norbert loss to Grinnell on Saturday or a win over St. Norbert on 11/10.  St. Norbert can force a three way tie by winning out which will apparently come down to the number of quarters led (INSANE).

Gotta admit that I've never heard of this tiebreaker, but I really like it, although perhaps someone else will point out an obvious flaw that I've missed.  Allows some measure of "control of a game" but takes raw margin of victory out of the equation (i.e. removes any incentive to run up the score, plus the wacky OT-finish scenario from the ASC where a team lost the tiebreaker because they didn't kick a PAT after winning a game 20-14 in overtime).

I like it as well, and agree that it's barely used. It is weird because we're so used to absolutes and leading at the end of a quarter is something nobody thinks about midseason. I mean imagine if a team waited for a quarter to end so it didn't have to kick a field goal into the wind or something ... Yet I think it is a fair measure of how well a team has played, in case it lost on a fluke at the end or something.

Anyway ...

[K-Mack]

If Wally doesn't scoop me on this -- actually, probably even if he does -- I'll take today's regional rankings and go around the board, taking the Pool A likliehoods into account, and determine who would be discussed when and who would get in in Pool C for ATN.

Pat also promised a playoff analysis at some point in the week, so I'll try not to duplicate that. That would include a projection of seeds and matchups, and who's at home ... not just who is in.

[smedindy]

I'm a bit surprised Huntingdon comes off as quickly as they do here. Heidelberg's SOS should improve after the next two weeks so they may go off the board earlier but they're still behind Wabash and Elmhurst.

[d-train]

As I noted, PLU probalby more than anybody got the short end of the deal with today's rankings.  No Willamette.  No Whitworth.  If either of those are ranked today, I'd probably project PLU in and not Heidelberg.

Winning @ Redlands was also pretty solid for the Lutes...but they won't be ranked this year.  Hopefully Willamette sneaks in the West rankings with another win.  And of course, some things are bound to change with this weekend's results (out of Moorhead for example).

Thanks for the analysis, wally.  Forgive me if I hope you're wrong.