Ok, here it goes. First projection with published regional rankings...and some teams caught breaks here, some teams didn't. More on that in a minute. First, Pool A...changes from last week in bold, clinched bids in italics:
| UMHB |
| Johns Hopkins |
| North Central |
| Mount Ida |
| Salisbury |
| Franklin |
| Coe |
| Hobart |
| Adrian |
| Widener |
| Lake Forest |
| St. Thomas |
| Salve Regina |
| Cortland State |
| Wittenberg |
| Concordia-Chicago |
| Linfield |
| Mount Union |
| Washington & Lee |
| Waynesburg |
| Cal Lutheran |
| Northwestern |
| Christopher Newport |
| UW-Oshkosh |
The NCAC tiebreak, for right now as I think I understand it, favors Wittenberg. So they are projected in here. That's the only real change from last week. Cortland State and Oshkosh clinched their bids on Saturday.
Pool B: Pool B was decided when Wesley defeated Huntingdon on Saturday. Wesley's D3 résumé is now complete and there is no way that they will be surpassed by anybody for this bid. Congrats, Wolverines.
Pool C: Ok, I'm not excluding Concordia-Moorhead this week. Here are the selections, in order of choice:
Wabash (7-1, 0.607 SOS, 2-0 vs RRO)
Bethel (7-1, 0.658 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)
Concordia-Moorhead (7-1, .577 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
Huntingdon (5-2, .605 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)
Elmhurst (7-1, 0.545 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
Rowan (6-2...6-1 in D3, 0.508 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
Heidelberg (7-1, 0.430 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
...which leaves PLU, Lycoming, and Louisiana College on the table when the pickin' is done.
A couple of things to note here about Pool C. Huntingdon caught a huge break with Hampden-Sydney and Adrian being ranked this week. Both could lose games on Saturday and disappear...but it matters not. Huntingdon gets those results now and that's what is keeping them in front of LC in the South. Not that LC didn't get thrown a bone here either because they did with Hardin-Simmons getting ranked. Win that and LC becomes very attractive. If any of those 2-loss teams left after the Heidelberg choice had a RRO win, I would have selected them instead. PLU kind of got the short end of the stick here with Willamette and Whitworth both absent from these rankings.
One thing that I'm doing here is really valuing quality wins. If you've shown me that you can actually beat a quality team (as sort-of arbitrarily defined by these rankings), then you get a lot of traction with me. Every team out here in Pool C and the Pool C bubble has proven that they can lose a game (or two)...they wouldn't be here if they didn't. I think one of the biggest things that should separate those teams is whether or not they've proven that they can WIN games against good teams. That's my subjective slant on this.
So there it is for consumption. Enjoy!