Pool C -- 2012

[K-Mack]

Wally ,

 With only three teams with wins vs rro , Plu has the best lose with rro and a . higher  SOS 6140. than the other Pool C teams  as i see it?   what did i miss?   

Loss to RRO is not a criteria for selection my friend--as they say every year--it's not who you lose to, it's who you beat.

OMG, someone IS listening.

+ many karma to Monrovia Cat. I was definitely getting ready to break that out again, although it's really Pat's baby.

[MonroviaCat]

Wally ,

 With only three teams with wins vs rro , Plu has the best lose with rro and a . higher  SOS 6140. than the other Pool C teams  as i see it?   what did i miss?   

Loss to RRO is not a criteria for selection my friend--as they say every year--it's not who you lose to, it's who you beat.

OMG, someone IS listening.

+ many karma to Monrovia Cat. I was definitely getting ready to break that out again, although it's really Pat's baby.

You guys say it enough--it had to stick somewhere

[d-train]

Yeah but just like PLU, LC led both #2 UMHB and #5 Wesley- only lost to Wesley by 3. Plus got a huge boost with Hardin-Simmons being ranked 10th. This one folks, is going to come down to the week 11. Got to love it!

Yeah, that's a tough break for us.  The greater depth in the West keeps PLU's victory over Willamette from counting as a RRO.  I think most would agree that Willamette deserves to be ranked more than Hardin-Simmons does, right?  (Plus, you may have scored the first 3 vs. UMHB - but a 27 point loss isn't too hot.)

Sorry wasn't trying to say PLU didn't deserve to be in. Was just stating a fact. Didn't mean to offend ya.

Not offended in the least.  I've got far thicker skin than that.  Your facts are correct and the last two weeks will be interesting.

[desertcat1]

hey Big guru,    It stuck many year ago . see schedule change when Redlands stopped answering the phone.

but , you need to play the stronger teams to get a better SOS  hence Linfield and PLU  this year ..  we were left out in the pass for a lower SOS too.  ? So what about willamette beating RRO  HS and PLU beating bearkitties .  to far out ? 

[d-train]

hey Big guru,    It stuck many year ago . see schedule change when Redlands stopped answering the phone.

but , you need to play the stronger teams to get a better SOS  hence Linfield and PLU  this year ..  we were left out in the pass for a lower SOS too.  ? So what about willamette beating RRO  HS and PLU beating bearkitties .  to far out ? 

Tells me that the West RR's should go about 12 deep while the South should stop at 9!  Whitworth (and of course Willamette) deserves mention above Hardin-Simmons based on today's records.  Oh well, whadda do?

[d-train]

The other thing that is pretty interesting is the number of two-loss teams we are already talking about.  In 2010, PLU was 8-1 with a win over Cal-Lu (finishing runner up to Linfield for the Pool A).  But those Lutes were roughly 9th in line for 6 Pool C bids as the field of one-loss teams was very deep.

[K-Mack]

The other thing that is pretty interesting is the number of two-loss teams we are already talking about.  In 2010, PLU was 8-1 with a win over Cal-Lu (finishing runner up to Linfield for the Pool A).  But those Lutes were roughly 9th in line for 6 Pool C bids as the field of one-loss teams was very deep.

That year looks more and more like an anomaly, but it's also proof that even if you can control what you can control, the quality/depth of the rest of the field matters too. There was a year when 9-1 Cortland State and 9-1 Franklin were left out as well.

In those years, even if those teams had gotten in, the ones left out in their places would also have had legitimate gripes.

The one thing I can say for sure about this year is that this particular selection committee seems to be made up of guys who are very conscious of strength of schedule. I think PLU, UW-P, LC and Huntingdon are probably in better shape than many think they are.

[K-Mack]

Wally ,

 With only three teams with wins vs rro , Plu has the best lose with rro and a . higher  SOS 6140. than the other Pool C teams  as i see it?   what did i miss?   

Loss to RRO is not a criteria for selection my friend--as they say every year--it's not who you lose to, it's who you beat.  Oh it also has to do with how teams are selected--They are not all thrown in one pot based on the criteria but each Region brings their first team in and if that team is taken then the next team gets selected vs. other teams on the other regions list (or something like that).  I think PLU could still get in (if everything stayed the same as it is right now), but they could certainly use some help.....

Not only that, but that's not true. LC lost to UMHB and Wesley.

With PLU at No. 9 on the SoS scale with just Whitworth left among D-III opponents though, that might be enough to put it ahead of LC. But LC would need to beat HSU to stay relevant in the discussion, giving it a win over a regionally-ranked opponent. Since Willamette closes with Pacific and UPS, and Whitworth would have to lose to PLU to stay relevant in this discussion, I don't know if PLU is really "ahead" of LC ...

PLU really needs some West teams to lose and let Willamette creep into the bottom of the West rankings, therefore giving it a win over an RRO.

Forgive if some of this has already been postulated. I'm not following the board very closely, as I want to have my own thoughts for ATN.

[Ralph Turner]

SOUTH
1    Mary Hardin-Baylor    7-0    8-0  ASC
2    Wesley    5-1    7-1                   Pool B
3    Johns Hopkins    8-0    8-0        Centennial
4    Waynesburg    9-0    9-0          Pres AC
5    Huntingdon    4-2    5-2             Pool B/C
5    Washington and Lee    6-2    6-2  ODAC    Hosts Hampden-Sydney on 11/03
7    Louisiana College    4-2    6-2                 ASC   Finishes versus HSU  on 11/10
8    Muhlenberg    5-2    6-2                         Centennial
9    Hampden-Sydney    6-2    6-2                ODAC   Plays at Washington and Lee on 11/03
10    Hardin-Simmons    4-3    5-3                 ASC  Finishes at Louisiana College  on 11/10

Not listed is the USA South candidate.

Pool A conference leaders are in Bold
Wesley is the strongest Pool B candidate in the Region, and highest among the four regions.

[d-train]

PLU really needs some West teams to lose and let Willamette creep into the bottom of the West rankings, therefore giving it a win over an RRO.

Well, UST is favored over Concordia-Moorhead this weekend.  But that's quite a drop (all the way off the list) for a spot to open for Willamette.  And if one does open, maybe Northwestern (Minn.) grabs it with their one loss and a possible clinching of the UMAC bid (ugh). 

[K-Mack]

PLU really needs some West teams to lose and let Willamette creep into the bottom of the West rankings, therefore giving it a win over an RRO.

Well, UST is favored over Concordia-Moorhead this weekend.  But that's quite a drop (all the way off the list) for a spot to open for Willamette.  And if one does open, maybe Northwestern (Minn.) grabs it with their one loss and a possible clinching of the UMAC bid (ugh).

I don't think eyes should be on the Cobbers. More like if Lake Forest or UW-Platteville loses, maybe in next week's rankings, Willamette will be the No. 10, and PLU would have a win over a RRO on its resume.

[K-Mack]

they had a big surprise with two flights last year?  who knows what can happen this year. 

They were pushing to be allowed to do this for a few years, and word it was coming. There was the year Aurora was supposed to go to Willamette or Oxy and got sent to Wartburg instead, we think because the person who approves costs rejected the committee's original bracket. The sense then was that they should be allowed to afford a second flight to keep the competitive balance a little closer, and I think the D-III membership wanted it.

Sometimes circumstances will make multiple flights necessary, but also I think the flexibility is there for when it's not completely necessary, to make it so that the seeds don't have to be stretch too badly. We might still see some 3-5 games instead of 3-6, but when it's 7vs.8 and 1vs.3, that's not good. Or fair.

[K-Mack]

although it won't matter if Elmhurst wins out, they got hurt a little by not having Wheaton appear in the RR. If it was going to happen, this would have been the week. So Wheaton's loss to Albion hurts Elmhurst too!

Yeah, I thought CCIW and Empire 8 were two of the bigger losers in how things shook out.

[d-train]

I don't think eyes should be on the Cobbers. More like if Lake Forest or UW-Platteville loses, maybe in next week's rankings, Willamette will be the No. 10, and PLU would have a win over a RRO on its resume.

Okay, we'll see.  UW-P's final two have two league wins between them.  Lake Forest doesn't play until the 10th.

What really stinks: if LC beats HSU, that counts as a win over a RRO even if though that would be the Cowboys 4th loss.  PLU could have victories over 8-2 Willamette, 7-3 Whitworth, and 6-3 Redlands that would (aparently) not mean as much because the West is deeper. 

[wally_wabash]

Wow, lots of chatter here.  My projection has already been buried!  Here's a link to that post if you want it: Wally's projected field of 32

Here are just my pool C picks...how I got there to follow:

Wabash (7-1, 0.607 SOS, 2-0 vs RRO)
Bethel (7-1, 0.658 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)
Concordia-Moorhead (7-1, .577 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
Huntingdon (5-2, .605 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)
Elmhurst (7-1, 0.545 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
Rowan (6-2...6-1 in D3, 0.508 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
Heidelberg (7-1, 0.430 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)

Round 1: On the board are...
- 4N Wabash (7-1, 0.607 SOS, 2-0 vs RRO)
- 5S Huntingdon (5-2, .605 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)
- 4E Rowan (6-2...6-1 in D3, 0.508 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 4W Bethel (7-1, 0.658 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)

Bethel leads in SOS amongst this group, but Wabash also has a stong SOS and has two RRO wins.  No common opponents or head to heads to consider here.  Wabash is the pick. 

Round 2: On the board are...
- 5N Elmhurst (7-1, 0.545 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 5S Huntingdon (5-2, .605 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)
- 4E Rowan (6-2...6-1 in D3, 0.508 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 4W Bethel (7-1, 0.658 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)

Bethel was close to being the first pick, so we know they look better than Huntingdon and Rowan.  Newbie Elmhurst doesn't grade out as well as Bethel, so the Royals are in.  Bethel has the best SOS here plus a RRO win. 

Round 3: On the board are...
- 5N Elmhurst (7-1, 0.545 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 5S Huntingdon (5-2, .605 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)
- 4E Rowan (6-2...6-1 in D3, 0.508 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 5W Concordia-Moorhead (7-1, .577 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)

It gets fun here because now we have to start considering multiple loss teams with good SOS's and good wins.  Huntingdon caught a huge break with Hampden-Sydney being ranked.  My pick here is going to be Concordia-Moorhead.  I'm favoring the win pct and the SOS over Huntingdon's RRO win and I think Concordia-Moorhead probably gets some special dispensation for the Bethel incident. 

Round 4: On the board are...
- 5N Elmhurst (7-1, 0.545 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 5S Huntingdon (5-2, .605 SOS, 1-1 vs RRO)
- 4E Rowan (6-2...6-1 in D3, 0.508 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 8W Pacific Lutheran (5-2, 0.612 SOS, 0-2 vs RRO)

It's your time Huntingdon.  The SOS is strong, the quality win is there which the rest of the teams lack.  Huntingdon gets favored here over the 1-loss teams because of the SOS and RRO win.  PLU, which will be a common theme, really needed Willamette to get into the rankings. 

Round 5: On the board are...
- 5N Elmhurst (7-1, 0.545 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 7S Louisiana College (6-2, 0.554 SOS, 0-2 vs RRO)
- 4E Rowan (6-2...6-1 in D3, 0.508 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 8W Pacific Lutheran (5-2, 0.612 SOS, 0-2 vs RRO)

I'm out of teams with good wins.  So now I kind of default back to win pct and SOS.  If you've got 2 losses and no good wins, you kind of drift to the back here.  Elmhurst is my selection with one loss and a better SOS than Rowan. 

Round 6: On the board are...
- 6N Heidelberg (7-1, 0.430 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 7S Louisiana College (6-2, 0.554 SOS, 0-2 vs RRO)
- 4E Rowan (6-2...6-1 in D3, 0.508 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 8W Pacific Lutheran (5-2, 0.612 SOS, 0-2 vs RRO)

Our new player doesn't have a quality win, so by the same logic as Round 5, Rowan is the selection...just one loss, better SOS than the other one loss team here. 

Round 7: On the board are...
- 6N Heidelberg (7-1, 0.430 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 7S Louisiana College (6-2, 0.554 SOS, 0-2 vs RRO)
- 6E Lycoming (6-2, 0.577 SOS, 0-1 vs RRO)
- 8W Pacific Lutheran (5-2, 0.612 SOS, 0-2 vs RRO)

Again, my two loss teams available are without a quality win.  Heidelberg has just the one loss, that to Mount Union, so I'm selecting Heidelberg based primarily on win pct here. 

So that's how I got where I got.  I think the first six picks are pretty solid.  I think there is a debate to be had about whether or not PLU or Louisiana College could be selected instead of Heidelberg based on SOS and "results" vs. RRO. 

It's amazing how much this changes if Hampden-Sydney is not ranked and Willamette is.  Huntingdon probably falls behind LC in the South and never hits the board while PLU is probably picked up on the 4th or 5th selection.