2012-13 Tournament Speculation Thread

[Matthew Webb]

Might as well get it going, even though I think the picture doesn't really begin to clarify until the second NCAA rankings come out.  But for starters, I'll cross-post this from the computer rankings discussion:

Should Oswego need a Pool C bid to make the tournament, I have a feeling it could come down to Oswego vs. Hobart for the final Pool C spot (Assuming Eau Claire/St. Norbert get one bid and Utica gets one and Norwich & Bowdin win their Pool A slots). Thier SOS and WIN are very close. If Record Against Rank is close, the tie breaker could be that one-goal win that Oswego has over Hobart. Thoughts NUProf?

While I'm not Prof, the Utica/Hobart situation is far from over. They play twice more in the regular season and a playoff meeting is quite possible.  Way too early to take a stab as to which one of those will be the preferred pool C choice.  What it's not too early to say, however, is that Oswego fans might as well be Utica fans also from here on out.  It's not likely that Wego is going to fare so hot in a comparison with Utica should it come down to it.

[Ozz]

Correct! It would probably take quite a collapse by Utica for Oswego to jump ahead them in any kind of Pool C discussion.

[llama]

Might as well get it going, even though I think the picture doesn't really begin to clarify until the second NCAA rankings come out.  But for starters, I'll cross-post this from the computer rankings discussion:

Should Oswego need a Pool C bid to make the tournament, I have a feeling it could come down to Oswego vs. Hobart for the final Pool C spot (Assuming Eau Claire/St. Norbert get one bid and Utica gets one and Norwich & Bowdin win their Pool A slots). Thier SOS and WIN are very close. If Record Against Rank is close, the tie breaker could be that one-goal win that Oswego has over Hobart. Thoughts NUProf?

While I'm not Prof, the Utica/Hobart situation is far from over. They play twice more in the regular season and a playoff meeting is quite possible.  Way too early to take a stab as to which one of those will be the preferred pool C choice.  What it's not too early to say, however, is that Oswego fans might as well be Utica fans also from here on out.  It's not likely that Wego is going to fare so hot in a comparison with Utica should it come down to it.

I'd also add that both Hobart and Utica have games remaining with M'ville and Neumann.  If both teams end up ranked by the NCAA, these games become critical to both UC and Hobart in more metrics than just win%.  As you guys have pointed out, LOTS OF HOCKEY LEFT TO PLAY!

[joecct]

It looks right now as a 7E/4W split for the bids.  Let's say they end up this way:

NCHA: St. Norbert
MCHA:  Adrian
MIAC:  St. Olaf

Barring a collapse by Eau Claire down the stretch, they look like a Pool C awardee.

Now do you do this:
Weds:  Eau Claire @ St. Olaf
Sat:  Winner of above @ SNC and Adrian playing somebody from New York within range?
or
Weds:  Adrian @ St. Norbert / Eau Claire @ St. Olaf
Sat:  Winners meet for a trip to LP.
??

[Ozz]

A part of me wants to say that the two Wednesday games in the West would be a good possibility as it would guarantee only one flight to Lake Placid.

[joecct]

But think of the fun of two play-in games in the East with the winner of the MASCAC and ECAC-NE travelling to the # 4 and 5 seeds!!!

Let's say they drop Adrian in the #3 seed West.  The the East would have

1
2
3
4
5
6/7 MASCAC / NE

#1 would play 5 or 6
#2 would play 4 or 7
Which means #3 East would play Adrian if they are in range of each other.

[Steve Wiitala]

Okay, I know I started this trend, and I did it mostly because I think its worthwhile to try and speculate instead of just pontificate.  That being said, I trust my computer (a lot) and would go with the following based solely on the computer model

Pool A
ECAC E - Norwich
ECAC NE - Wentworth (ick)
MASCAC - Plymouth State
MCHA - Adrian
MIAC - St. Olaf
NESCAC - Bowdoin
NCHA - Eau Claire
SUNYAC - Oswego

Pool C
Utica
St. Norbert
Hobart

That's 4 for the West 7 for the East

Seeds
E1 Utica
E2 Norwich
E3 Hobart
E4 Bowdoin
E5 Oswego
E6 Plymouth
E7 Wentworth

W1 Eau Claire
W2 Adrian
W3 St. Norbert
W4 St Olaf

The "wild card" is what happens to Adrian in this scenario. 

With Oswego at E5, they could get sent to Adrian in a Semi final.  Then would have a first rounder with STO going to SNB, and the winner going to Eau Claire.  If OSW wins that gives the NCAA one Flight.  It also provides the West with two of the 5 byes and the East with 3.

In the East we would have Wentworth going to Hobart for a first round game, and Plymouth going to Bowdoin.
The Wentworth/Hobart winner would play Utica, and the Plymouth/Bowdoin winner would play Norwich.

There's a whole lot of hockey left to play, and we know that we never get all the league leaders through the tournaments. It just doesn't happen.

This would be an interesting setup in any case.

[joecct]

You'd rank Adrian over SNC??

[Ozz]

You'd rank Adrian over SNC??

His computer rankings have Adrian over SNC...

[joecct]

I don't and I don't think the committee would either.

Though if I multiply WinPct x SOS  Adrian would be #3 behind Utica and Norwich.

[Steve Wiitala]

I don't and I don't think the committee would either.

Though if I multiply WinPct x SOS  Adrian would be #3 behind Utica and Norwich.

I'm using the computer rankings as a starting point. I can examine the inside figures to see why. 

[Matthew Webb]

A part of me wants to say that the two Wednesday games in the West would be a good possibility as it would guarantee only one flight to Lake Placid.

If Adrian gets in the big question will definitely be whether it goes East or West for its opening game.  While there are numerous factors that could contribute to where it ends up, the amount of flights required to get teams to Placid is not one of them.

[Steve Wiitala]

A part of me wants to say that the two Wednesday games in the West would be a good possibility as it would guarantee only one flight to Lake Placid.

If Adrian gets in the big question will definitely be whether it goes East or West for its opening game.  While there are numerous factors that could contribute to where it ends up, the amount of flights required to get teams to Placid is not one of them.

However flights before Lake Placid have been an issue, so giving them a bye helps solve that problem.  If my memory is correct, about the only current contenders within 500 miles of Adrian are Oswego and SNC, so if they could play one or the other in a quarterfinal game, everybody is happier.

[joecct]

Elmira has to be in range (2011 NCAA QF) and possibly Hobart.

[Steve Wiitala]

Elmira has to be in range (2011 NCAA QF) and possibly Hobart.

Elmira is in range, but not in contention.  Not sure about Hobart - I would guess they are close.  Other (long shots) Fredonia and Buffalo St.