2012-13 Tournament Speculation Thread

[joecct]

That's an interesting thought.  Let's look at them (for now)

WinPct  Norwich 0.875  Eau Claire 0.826
SoS  Norwich 0.5168  Eau Claire 0.5276
RvR  Norwich 3-2-0, Eau Claire 2-0-1

If it comes down to the last Pool C slot, Eau Claire looks like a winnah

But what about the 2 ECAC-W teams?
WinPct  Norwich 0.875  Hobart 0.857  Utica 0.800
SoS  Norwich 0.5168  Hobart 0.5251  Utica 0.5563
RvR  Norwich 3-2-0, Hobart 4-2-0  Utica 6-2-0

Looks like Norwich is a goner there too.

Guess what, you were right.  The ECAC-E looks like a one bid league this year.

Of course that's with about a month left -- anything can happen.  Right, Matt?

[Matthew Webb]

Of course that's with about a month left -- anything can happen.  Right, Matt?

Not anything, but enough that I've given up on trying to make comparisons this far out since 1) so much is bound to change and 2) we don't even have the NCAA regional rankings yet.

[Steve Wiitala]

That's an interesting thought.  Let's look at them (for now)

WinPct  Norwich 0.875  Eau Claire 0.826
SoS  Norwich 0.5168  Eau Claire 0.5276
RvR  Norwich 3-2-0, Eau Claire 2-0-1

If it comes down to the last Pool C slot, Eau Claire looks like a winnah

Remember that it is not a pairwise process.  The committee could well (if they were doing this right now) look at the fact that Norwich's 0.875 is considerably stronger the Eau Claire's 0.826, and could more than overcome the SOS and (projected) RNK values.  If it is close, they would then go to the secondary criteria where Nowich's  Win Percent gets even better.

Norwich also still has games on the schedule with CST, UMB, and BAB, all of whom will (probably) be ranked.    Sweep those three and the RNK looks a lot better. If perchance BAB or NEU are not ranked, it looks better.  I could envision BAB falling out of the Eastern Rankings with a couple more losses.

The bottom line: I wouldn't rule Norwich out, or Eau Claire out at this point.  Too many games to play and the NCAA has to create their secret rankings, and then release the public ones.

[Matthew Webb]

Where is Eau Claire's 2-0-1 RNK coming from?  We have no clue what it might be when they rankings come out next week, but 2-0-1 is way off of whatever it's going to be.

Things like this is why I say it's still too early to get into this too much

[Matthew Webb]

Though since I'm sitting here, I'll throw it out there that based on what I suspect tomorrow's trial rankings might look like, I've got Eau Claire at 6-1-2 in RNK right now.

[Matthew Webb]

With the first regional rankings less than a week away, we take a look at how the men's field is ultimately selected: http://d3hockey.com/bracketology/men/12-13/2013-selection-process

[PeterLangella]

Okay, it happens every year. What curveball will the first rankings through at us this time?

[Matthew Webb]

Okay, it happens every year. What curveball will the first rankings through at us this time?

I think Norwich will be No. 1 in the East.  And if it isn't now, it will be when it matters.

[Steve Wiitala]

My computer metrics say that Utica will edge out Norwich at least at the first release.  Utica's OWP and OOWP beat Norwich handily, and Norwich's two losses are both to teams that will surely be ranked. Utica has 4 losses, but 2 of them are to teams that won't be ranked (Cortland and Elmira).  The only way that Norwich can win that comparison is if Norwich has played more games with teams that end up ranked than Utica does.  Thus, if Norwich is ranked ahead of Utica, it would be surprise.  (I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but that it would be a surprise)

[Matthew Webb]

My computer metrics say that Utica will edge out Norwich at least at the first release.  Utica's OWP and OOWP beat Norwich handily, and Norwich's two losses are both to teams that will surely be ranked. Utica has 4 losses, but 2 of them are to teams that won't be ranked (Cortland and Elmira).  The only way that Norwich can win that comparison is if Norwich has played more games with teams that end up ranked than Utica does.  Thus, if Norwich is ranked ahead of Utica, it would be surprise.  (I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but that it would be a surprise)

Yeah, after further review I don't think NU will be #1 at the moment but do believe it will be at the end if it wins the ECACE.

As for surprises, I'm not sure where else to look.  I do think we'll see MSOE and a MIAC team in 7/8 in the West.  Will have to wait on the numbers but in a strictly qualitative sense based on this season's results the entire NCHA belongs above anyone from the West not named Adrian.  As we know, of course, that may or may not be represented in the relevant criteria.

[fisheralum91]

UC gets the Number one spot in the regional poll.
Congrats to Gary and his boys!

[Matthew Webb]

First regional rankings: http://d3hockey.com/rankings/regional/2012-13/feb-12

[joecct]

If the season ended today and the 1st place teams win out
ECAC-E: Norwich
ECAC-NE: Wentworth
MASCAC: Plymouth
NESCAC: Bowdoin
SUNYAC: Oswego
MIAC: St. Olaf
MCHA: Adrian
NCHA: Eau Claire

Pool C: Utica, St. Norbert, Hobart

Seedings:
East:  Utica, Norwich, Oswego, Hobart, Bowdoin, Plymouth, Wentworth
West:  Eau Claire, St. Norbert, Adrian, St. Olaf

Scenario 1
Round 1:  Wentworth @ Plymouth, Adrian @ St. Norbert, St. Olaf @ Eau Claire
Quarterfinals:  ADR/SNC vs. STO/WEC, WNT/PLY @ Utica, Bowdoin @ Norwich, Hobart @ Oswego
Semis:  Utica bracket vs. Oswego bracket, Eau Claire bracket vs. Norwich bracket

Scenario 2
Round 1: Wentworth @ Hobart, Plymouth @ Bowdoin, St. Olaf @ St. Norbert
QF:  STO/SNC @ WEC, Adrian @ Oswego, WNT/HOB @ Norwich, PLY/BOW @ Utica      ----- 
SF:  WEC bracket vs HOB/ADR, Norwich bracket vs. Utica bracket  --

Wait - Utica can't host.  So, the logical scenario is tossed.  Let's look @ Scenario 2
R1:  Wentworth @ Hobart, Plymouth @ Bowdoin, St. Olaf @ St. Norbert
QF:  Utica @ Adrian, PLY/BOW @ Norwich, WNT/HOB @ Oswego, STO/SNC @ WEC
SF:  UTC/ADR vs Oswego bracket, Eau Clare bracket vs. Norwich bracket

Dunno what happens if they make it a 7/4 split.  Does Utica go to the East coast to play the winner of Plymouth / Wentworth?  What if Wentworth can't host?  Ahh the possibilities!!

[Matthew Webb]

Yeah, this could be the first time where we'll all be aware of some hosting issues in advance.  Combine those with the Adrian quandary should it get in the field and while it might be easy to get the field right, slotting it properly could prove a challenge.

[Matthew Webb]

Also, Josh's first bracketology will be up tomorrow morning.

As to the rankings themselves, it appears the only real complaint from some is that Plattsburgh is as low as it is.  Had they been following along here all along they'd have known this was coming because of a pretty low SOS.