2013 Bracketology

[Matthew Webb]

The women's selection process: http://www.d3hockey.com/bracketology/women/12-13/2013-selection-process

[Matthew Webb]

Feb. 27 Bracketology: http://www.d3hockey.com/bracketology/women/12-13/feb-27

[NittanyLion95]

Thanks, Matt!  Always appreciated.  I heard you on the radio on Burlington's ESPN station the other night...

Good stuff!

[Matt R]

Upset brewing in the MIAC.

Undefeated Gustavus Adolphus is trailing 1-0 to Bethel after 2 periods in the MIAC Semi-finals.

[NittanyLion95]

some eastern hockey teams sweating right now...

[NittanyLion95]

and the eastern teams exhale...gac getsthree in thethird and win 3-2.

[Matt R]

With St. Norbert punching their ticket, the field seems to be shaping up. Here is how things stand right now.

Pool A
Gustavus Adolphus
St. Norbert

Locks regardless of the outcome tomorrow
Plattsburgh (vs. Elmira in ECAC West Championship)
Norwich (vs. Manhattanville in ECAC East Championship)
Middlebury (vs. Bowdoin in NESCAC Championship)
Bowdoin (vs. Middlebury in NESCAC Championship)
Elmira (vs. Plattsburgh in ECAC West Championship)

That means, the only game that could impact the field is Norwich/Manhattanville. As it stands right now, the clear favorite for the last Pool C spot is UWRF. Amherst and/or Manhattanville could put up a fight but in the end they just don't have the numbers.

Let's assume Norwich wins tomorrow, here is how things will likely look.

NCAA Quarterfinals
St. Norbert @ Plattsburgh
Elmira @ (Midd/Bowdoin winner)
(Midd/Bowdoin loser) @ Norwich
UWRF @ Gustavus Adolphus

And in the event Manhattanville pulls off the upset.

Manhattanville @ Plattsburgh
Elmira @ (Midd/Bowdoin winner)
(Midd/Bowdoin loser) @ Norwich
St. Norbert @ Gustavus Adolphus

[Matthew Webb]

Looks about right.  We'll have a final women's bracket prediction late tomorrow night, but for once it looks like things really might be quite straightforward.

[Matt R]

With St. Norbert punching their ticket, the field seems to be shaping up. Here is how things stand right now.

Pool A
Gustavus Adolphus
St. Norbert

Locks regardless of the outcome tomorrow
Plattsburgh (vs. Elmira in ECAC West Championship)
Norwich (vs. Manhattanville in ECAC East Championship)
Middlebury (vs. Bowdoin in NESCAC Championship)
Bowdoin (vs. Middlebury in NESCAC Championship)
Elmira (vs. Plattsburgh in ECAC West Championship)

That means, the only game that could impact the field is Norwich/Manhattanville. As it stands right now, the clear favorite for the last Pool C spot is UWRF. Amherst and/or Manhattanville could put up a fight but in the end they just don't have the numbers.

Let's assume Norwich wins tomorrow, here is how things will likely look.

NCAA Quarterfinals
St. Norbert @ Plattsburgh
Elmira @ (Midd/Bowdoin winner)
(Midd/Bowdoin loser) @ Norwich
UWRF @ Gustavus Adolphus

And in the event Manhattanville pulls off the upset.

Manhattanville @ Plattsburgh
Elmira @ (Midd/Bowdoin winner)
(Midd/Bowdoin loser) @ Norwich
St. Norbert @ Gustavus Adolphus

Now that we have the results of today's games. Here is what the field should look like.

NCAA Quarterfinals
St. Norbert @ Plattsburgh
Elmira @ Bowdoin
Middlebury @ Norwich
UWRF @ Gustavus Adolphus

[NittanyLion95]

My only question (and this is really nit-picky at this point), Plattsburgh/St. Norbert winner would play the Middlebury/Norwich winner in Superior.  Did they make Bowdoin the #3 seed nationally and Norwich #4?  It would seem, with Plattsburgh playing St. Norbert, that they were given the overall #1 seed...

[Matthew Webb]

My only question (and this is really nit-picky at this point), Plattsburgh/St. Norbert winner would play the Middlebury/Norwich winner in Superior.  Did they make Bowdoin the #3 seed nationally and Norwich #4?  It would seem, with Plattsburgh playing St. Norbert, that they were given the overall #1 seed...

That's what I'm trying to figure out.  Something doesn't compute.  If Gustavus was the #1 overall you'd think it would have then hosted St. Norbert, which didn't happen.  Which leaves the possibility that Norwich and Bowdoin flipped in final regional rankings.  Bowdoin did pick up two wins over ranked teams, but Norwich had one also.  Both went 2-0 on weekend, but Bowdoin's big SOS might have made a difference?  Not sure.

I'll be doing a "selections explained" piece later tonight that covers men and women.  Might have to really break down that NU-BOW comparison...

[Matt R]

My only question (and this is really nit-picky at this point), Plattsburgh/St. Norbert winner would play the Middlebury/Norwich winner in Superior.  Did they make Bowdoin the #3 seed nationally and Norwich #4?  It would seem, with Plattsburgh playing St. Norbert, that they were given the overall #1 seed...

That's what I'm trying to figure out.  Something doesn't compute.  If Gustavus was the #1 overall you'd think it would have then hosted St. Norbert, which didn't happen.  Which leaves the possibility that Norwich and Bowdoin flipped in final regional rankings.  Bowdoin did pick up two wins over ranked teams, but Norwich had one also.  Both went 2-0 on weekend, but Bowdoin's big SOS might have made a difference?  Not sure.

I'll be doing a "selections explained" piece later tonight that covers men and women.  Might have to really break down that NU-BOW comparison...

It actually makes perfect sense. I admit, I didn't catch it either but there is a clear cut case for Bowdoin as 2E.

Code: [Select]

    Bowdoin vs Norwich
WIN      0.7826  0           0.8542  1
SOS      0.5593  1           0.5303  0
H2H     0- 0- 1  0          0- 0- 1  0
COP     7- 2- 0  0          7- 1- 1  1
RNK     10- 4- 1  1          5- 2- 3  0
============================================
PTS              2                   2

The COP is identical, you can't really award Norwich the edge in that comparison. The WIN and RNK wipe each other out which leaves Bowdoin with a pretty significant lead in SOS. I am kind of disappointed I did not catch this beforehand. Granted, no one else did either but still. That means the National Rankings would have looked something like this.

1- Plattsburgh
2- Gustavus Adolphus
3- Bowdoin
4- Norwich
5- Middlebury
6- Elmira
7- Wis.-River Falls
8- St. Norbert

This means bracket integrity remained intact. While the pieces fell perfectly into place for the NCAA to get it right this year, kudos to them for actually doing so.

[NittanyLion95]

Thanks, guys!  Playing Norwich (or Middlebury) a third time kind of scares me a little bit, but then the opportunity exists to have to beat Elmira a fourth time .... should be an interesting tournament!

[Steve Wiitala]

I've been trying to pitch the following point of view everywhere this post season.

Seeding doesn't matter, and if you worry about it then you don't have enough respect for your team.  Embrace the challenges.  I know that the committee's job is to try to align things so that the National title game is the most attractive match up possible, and so that the semis have as much competition as possible, but as a fan, just embrace each game your team gets to play.