Author Topic: Top 25 Discussion  (Read 37040 times)

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #15 on: March 12, 2013, 08:29:43 pm »
Hammer, it is often that unranked teams early in the season get overlooked....however 2012 has little to do with 2013 unless of course there is a significant number of returners and or a history of the program being strong year over year.

Drum roll....and the mystery team is?
Haverford qualifies. The 6-0 Fords have beaten Drew, Rowan, Skidmore and Pitt-Bradford.

I had no recollection that 3 of those teams were in a regional.

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #16 on: March 12, 2013, 09:11:18 pm »
Hammer, it is often that unranked teams early in the season get overlooked....however 2012 has little to do with 2013 unless of course there is a significant number of returners and or a history of the program being strong year over year.

Drum roll....and the mystery team is?
Haverford qualifies. The 6-0 Fords have beaten Drew, Rowan, Skidmore and Pitt-Bradford.

I had no recollection that 3 of those teams were in a regional.
http://www.d3baseball.com/notables/2012/05/Playoff_Central  ;D
This... is a simple game. You throw the ball. You hit the ball. You catch the ball.  "There are three types of baseball players: those who make things happen, those who watch it happen, and those who wonder what happened."
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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #17 on: March 13, 2013, 04:54:40 am »
Hammer, it is often that unranked teams early in the season get overlooked....however 2012 has little to do with 2013 unless of course there is a significant number of returners and or a history of the program being strong year over year.

Drum roll....and the mystery team is?
Haverford qualifies. The 6-0 Fords have beaten Drew, Rowan, Skidmore and Pitt-Bradford.

I had no recollection that 3 of those teams were in a regional.
http://www.d3baseball.com/notables/2012/05/Playoff_Central  ;D

Still can't find Pitt Bradford, and Drew and Skidmore were two and out. No wonder I don't remember.

Offline Hammer Ball

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #18 on: March 14, 2013, 07:18:30 am »
Should Keans 4 losses (all to unranked teams) drop them out of the top 25?

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #19 on: March 14, 2013, 09:26:36 am »
They were all close games against solid teams, while they are on an early season trip so my guess is that they will drop a lot but likely not out. I get the impression that once you make it to the top 10 it takes a couple of weeks of poor play to drop you off.

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #20 on: March 14, 2013, 10:59:45 am »
They were all close games against solid teams, while they are on an early season trip so my guess is that they will drop a lot but likely not out. I get the impression that once you make it to the top 10 it takes a couple of weeks of poor play to drop you off.
Agree.  The D3baseball.com "rankers" seem to heavily weight a programs historic performance, forecasting that the team will produce like results by seasons end.  Thus delaying any precipitous descent in the teams rank.  It takes a couple of weeks of poor performance for weight to be given to current in-season performance. We will see if 4 losses to unranked teams are enough to drop Kean out of the rankings.  On the D1 side BA dropped Stanford clear out of the Top 25 from 13, after getting swept by a previously unranked UNLV (now 21).  This despite Stanfords sweep of a ranked Texas team one week prior.  So, big drops, from respected rankers, to perennially highly ranked teams can happen in a single week.

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #21 on: March 14, 2013, 12:23:20 pm »
D1 and D3 seem to be 2 different animals.  Kean went to the West Coast with 7 games under its belt and then played 5 games in 6 days. The west coast competition was in mid-season form.  For example, LaVerne had played 13 games, 1/3 of its season by that time.

The SCIAC is a well-balanced league in its top 4-5 teams.  Kean played well against that competition.

Another factor is that you don't always know whether Kean pitched its early season #4 pitcher against another team's mid-season #2! 

In baseball, we usually like at least best 2-of-3 and commonly best 3-of-5 or better in the highest quality of competition.  Before 1969, we played 154 or 162 games to determine a league championship, so we wanted a real endurance test to detemine the best team.  The modern playoffs were made for TV!

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #22 on: March 14, 2013, 12:44:58 pm »
D1 and D3 seem to be 2 different animals.  Kean went to the West Coast with 7 games under its belt and then played 5 games in 6 days. The west coast competition was in mid-season form.  For example, LaVerne had played 13 games, 1/3 of its season by that time.

The SCIAC is a well-balanced league in its top 4-5 teams.  Kean played well against that competition.

Another factor is that you don't always know whether Kean pitched its early season #4 pitcher against another team's mid-season #2! 

In baseball, we usually like at least best 2-of-3 and commonly best 3-of-5 or better in the highest quality of competition.  Before 1969, we played 154 or 162 games to determine a league championship, so we wanted a real endurance test to detemine the best team.  The modern playoffs were made for TV!
I'm with you - except I would not over weight "playing well" into a ranking decision when it involves play in more than one game. A loss is a loss, or in Keans case 4 losses are 4 losses.  If you want to be highly ranked you must earn it by winning. However, 4 blowout wins against teams with RPI's in the bottom 10% would mean very little to me. The subjective nature of rankings such as these is exposed each week.  That is what makes them interesting I guess.

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #23 on: March 14, 2013, 02:14:02 pm »
Hammer- I look forward to seeing your own top 25 next week.
Baseball is not a game that builds character, it is a game that reveals it.

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #24 on: March 14, 2013, 02:22:19 pm »
D1 and D3 seem to be 2 different animals.  Kean went to the West Coast with 7 games under its belt and then played 5 games in 6 days. The west coast competition was in mid-season form.  For example, LaVerne had played 13 games, 1/3 of its season by that time.

The SCIAC is a well-balanced league in its top 4-5 teams.  Kean played well against that competition.

Another factor is that you don't always know whether Kean pitched its early season #4 pitcher against another team's mid-season #2! 

In baseball, we usually like at least best 2-of-3 and commonly best 3-of-5 or better in the highest quality of competition.  Before 1969, we played 154 or 162 games to determine a league championship, so we wanted a real endurance test to detemine the best team.  The modern playoffs were made for TV!
I'm with you - except I would not over weight "playing well" into a ranking decision when it involves play in more than one game. A loss is a loss, or in Keans case 4 losses are 4 losses.  If you want to be highly ranked you must earn it by winning. However, 4 blowout wins against teams with RPI's in the bottom 10% would mean very little to me. The subjective nature of rankings such as these is exposed each week.  That is what makes them interesting I guess.
"Playing well", which brings us to the discussion of "results" (please note the precision and latitude of the wording) versus regionally ranked teams, which is one of the criteria used by the Evaluation Committees.

This is always a great divide and discussion point among fans.  I strongly believe that we will see fewer of these types on early-season/mid-season, inter-region games next year because why does a coach wish to penalize his team with such a loss in the strictest rankings?

If we are watching Top 25 teams, does  it make sense to have 15 teams from the West and South Region in the Top 25 in the last week of February, just because they are the only teams that have played a few games?  As soon as the Mid-Atlantic and New England powers get a few games under their belt, then you have to knock most of the West and South Region early season pretenders out of the rankings.

Another way to consider the Top 25 is to ask the question, is this likely to be one of the teams that wins 2 of its first 3 games in the Regional Playoffs?  That gives you about 30-35 teams from which to consider your Top 25.  In the Mid-Atlantic Region, the NJAC schools always deserve consideration.    :)

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #25 on: March 14, 2013, 02:43:34 pm »
I think "unranked" is a bit of a misnomer. Kean didn't lose to 2-10 teams. Ithaca is in my top 25. Brockport was removed from my 25 at the 11th hour. La Verne is in someone's 25. Chapman is capable of beating any team. Redlands has one home loss and has beaten Pomona, CLU, UTD, Bridgewater and Kean at their place.

UW-Whitewater moved into the top 10 after a split against an unranked team.

UNLV was unranked by Baseball America in a literal sense. Plus, Stanford was swept at home in three games. I disagree that KU and Stanford is an apt analogy.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2013, 02:58:48 pm by Ricky Nelson »

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #26 on: March 14, 2013, 02:47:37 pm »
Adrian went from No. 8 to "unranked" last week by the way.

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #27 on: March 14, 2013, 04:03:04 pm »
Another way to consider the Top 25 is to ask the question, is this likely to be one of the teams that wins 2 of its first 3 games in the Regional Playoffs?  That gives you about 30-35 teams from which to consider your Top 25.  In the Mid-Atlantic Region, the NJAC schools always deserve consideration.    :)
[/quote]
I think you hit on one of my points: Should the Top 25 purely reflect performance as of the day of ranking?  or should whether this is likely to be one of the teams that wins 2 of its first 3 games in the Regional Playoffs be a factor? I think the ranking should have nothing to do with perdicting the future but rather evaluating the seasons performance to date.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2013, 04:05:42 pm by Hammer Ball »

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #28 on: March 14, 2013, 04:48:15 pm »
Hammer- your theory of the poll reflecting only "performance to date" completely leaves out the teams that have yet to play a single game becuase of geography. If this were the case, the entire top 25 would be teams from the West and South, which I am not certain is an accurate way to assess the "national" inclusiveness of the poll.
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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #29 on: March 14, 2013, 05:19:21 pm »
Should Keans 4 losses (all to unranked teams) drop them out of the top 25?
Yes IMO
This... is a simple game. You throw the ball. You hit the ball. You catch the ball.  "There are three types of baseball players: those who make things happen, those who watch it happen, and those who wonder what happened."
Crash Davis Bio - http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/crash0908.html