Author Topic: Top 25 Discussion  (Read 36962 times)

Offline CrashDavisD3

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #30 on: March 14, 2013, 05:19:43 pm »
Hammer- your theory of the poll reflecting only "performance to date" completely leaves out the teams that have yet to play a single game becuase of geography. If this were the case, the entire top 25 would be teams from the West and South, which I am not certain is an accurate way to assess the "national" inclusiveness of the poll.
True
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Offline CrashDavisD3

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #31 on: March 14, 2013, 05:27:13 pm »
Another way to consider the Top 25 is to ask the question, is this likely to be one of the teams that wins 2 of its first 3 games in the Regional Playoffs?  That gives you about 30-35 teams from which to consider your Top 25.  In the Mid-Atlantic Region, the NJAC schools always deserve consideration.    :)

I think you hit on one of my points: Should the Top 25 purely reflect performance as of the day of ranking?  or should whether this is likely to be one of the teams that wins 2 of its first 3 games in the Regional Playoffs be a factor? I think the ranking should have nothing to do with perdicting the future but rather evaluating the seasons performance to date.
I disagree. Past, Present, Future......Example Marrietta, Cortland, Trinity-Texas
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Offline CrashDavisD3

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #32 on: March 14, 2013, 05:28:52 pm »
I think "unranked" is a bit of a misnomer. Kean didn't lose to 2-10 teams. Ithaca is in my top 25. Brockport was removed from my 25 at the 11th hour. La Verne is in someone's 25. Chapman is capable of beating any team. Redlands has one home loss and has beaten Pomona, CLU, UTD, Bridgewater and Kean at their place.

UW-Whitewater moved into the top 10 after a split against an unranked team.

UNLV was unranked by Baseball America in a literal sense. Plus, Stanford was swept at home in three games. I disagree that KU and Stanford is an apt analogy.
Your right...Apples and Oranges comparison

Occidental(15-2) Not in TOP 25, Not even a single vote. If it beats Cal Lu 2 of 3 they deserve a top 25 ranking with a 17-3 record.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2013, 05:30:57 pm by CrashDavisD3 »
This... is a simple game. You throw the ball. You hit the ball. You catch the ball.  "There are three types of baseball players: those who make things happen, those who watch it happen, and those who wonder what happened."
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Babe Truth

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #33 on: March 14, 2013, 06:19:39 pm »
. . . UW-Whitewater moved into the top 10 after a split against an unranked team.

Actually, Whitewater split with #2 St. Thomas to move from 11 to 10.  UW La Crosse did the same thing in slightly better fashion and stays at #16.   St. Thomas is now #5 despite losing 3 of 8. All of which seems to fit some of the reasoning here regarding historic performance and program reputation being factors.  Of course early polls are always educated guesses that often don't resemble the final polls.

Offline Hammer Ball

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #34 on: March 14, 2013, 07:24:13 pm »
Hammer- your theory of the poll reflecting only "performance to date" completely leaves out the teams that have yet to play a single game becuase of geography. If this were the case, the entire top 25 would be teams from the West and South, which I am not certain is an accurate way to assess the "national" inclusiveness of the poll.
True
Does this support an argument that polls should not be started until after a certain date or that we should start polls as currently done but just omit teams that do not have a sufficient in-season body of work? D3 differs greatly from D1 in that recruiting/transfers are not followed and reported on in a similar fashion. As unreliable as preseason polls are in D1 (see unranked Fresno St. winning championship a few years ago) such polls may be absurd in D3. Although they are fun.

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #35 on: March 14, 2013, 08:30:27 pm »
What would give me pause about Kean is that in 4 of the last 5 games, they've given up a number of runs. Really only two pitchers have distinguished themselves for them so far.

Offline Mr. Ypsi

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #36 on: March 14, 2013, 09:18:44 pm »
Hammer- your theory of the poll reflecting only "performance to date" completely leaves out the teams that have yet to play a single game becuase of geography. If this were the case, the entire top 25 would be teams from the West and South, which I am not certain is an accurate way to assess the "national" inclusiveness of the poll.
True
Does this support an argument that polls should not be started until after a certain date or that we should start polls as currently done but just omit teams that do not have a sufficient in-season body of work? D3 differs greatly from D1 in that recruiting/transfers are not followed and reported on in a similar fashion. As unreliable as preseason polls are in D1 (see unranked Fresno St. winning championship a few years ago) such polls may be absurd in D3. Although they are fun.

Some of that is just that weird things happen in baseball.  As recently as 2010, IWU won the national title after having had a losing record with less than two weeks left in the regular season.

Of all sports that I follow, baseball is probably the least predictable (and therefore the least rankable).  IWU was certainly not THE best team in d3 that season (I'm a devout Titan fan, and doubt they were even top 25 :o), but they were the best for a few weeks at the end of the season - we are NOT returning the trophy! ;D  (After all, if you get a hit 35% of the time in MLB, you'll make the Hall of Fame; if you shoot 35% in the NBA or complete 35% of passes in the NFL, you'll be looking for a new line of work!  Of course this over-simplified explanation for the unpredictability of baseball breaks down with some other sports - even Wayne Gretzky couldn't score on 35% of his shots! :P)

OshDude

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #37 on: March 14, 2013, 10:20:07 pm »
. . . UW-Whitewater moved into the top 10 after a split against an unranked team.

Actually, Whitewater split with #2 St. Thomas to move from 11 to 10.  UW La Crosse did the same thing in slightly better fashion and stays at #16.   St. Thomas is now #5 despite losing 3 of 8. All of which seems to fit some of the reasoning here regarding historic performance and program reputation being factors.  Of course early polls are always educated guesses that often don't resemble the final polls.
Of course. Had UWW playing CSS for whatever reason.

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #38 on: March 14, 2013, 10:31:45 pm »
And if you want me to build a 6-team bracket for the Midwest Regionals 2 months from now, I will take St Thomas, UWW, UWL and the Pool A bid from the UMAC, CSS.  Add the IIAC Pool A bid and the NATHC champ and voila!
« Last Edit: March 14, 2013, 10:38:34 pm by Ralph Turner »

OshDude

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #39 on: March 14, 2013, 10:47:57 pm »
Kean loses in California quite often.
2013: 3-3 record (2-3 vs CA teams); 2012: 4-2; 2011: 3-3; 2010: DNP; 2009: 3-3; 2008: 4-2; 2007: 4-2.

KU made the tournament each of those seasons, won a regional in 2007-09 and 2011-12, and won it all in 2007.

Spence

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #40 on: March 15, 2013, 01:46:53 am »
Kean loses in California quite often.
2013: 3-3 record (2-3 vs CA teams); 2012: 4-2; 2011: 3-3; 2010: DNP; 2009: 3-3; 2008: 4-2; 2007: 4-2.

KU made the tournament each of those seasons, won a regional in 2007-09 and 2011-12, and won it all in 2007.

Did those teams get beaten around pitching-wise like this one has?

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #41 on: March 15, 2013, 01:47:36 am »
And if you want me to build a 6-team bracket for the Midwest Regionals 2 months from now, I will take St Thomas, UWW, UWL and the Pool A bid from the UMAC, CSS.  Add the IIAC Pool A bid and the NATHC champ and voila!

I hope the committee will be more creative than that given how many regionals are close by.

Offline CrashDavisD3

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #42 on: March 15, 2013, 03:56:58 am »
Kean loses in California quite often.
2013: 3-3 record (2-3 vs CA teams); 2012: 4-2; 2011: 3-3; 2010: DNP; 2009: 3-3; 2008: 4-2; 2007: 4-2.

KU made the tournament each of those seasons, won a regional in 2007-09 and 2011-12, and won it all in 2007.
By coming to CA every year Kean gets to play teams that are in mid season form and is better competition than staying home and playing teams near them. It also help them find out and develop their pitching with so many innings in their week trip prepares them for conference tourney and regional tournaments. The formula seems to work based on the past history.
This... is a simple game. You throw the ball. You hit the ball. You catch the ball.  "There are three types of baseball players: those who make things happen, those who watch it happen, and those who wonder what happened."
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Offline BigPoppa

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #43 on: March 15, 2013, 11:55:36 am »
Plus, those games are non-region games for Kean and do not really hurt them in bigger picture. When I was a head coach at an NAIA program in California, I scheduled Kean on their 2003 trip out West and we beat them pretty handily at the time. Still, Kean a nice run that season as they got on track out West and pounded theams once they returned to the East. Say what you will, this method has produced results late in the season year after year.
Baseball is not a game that builds character, it is a game that reveals it.

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Top 25 Discussion
« Reply #44 on: March 15, 2013, 04:37:58 pm »
And if you want me to build a 6-team bracket for the Midwest Regionals 2 months from now, I will take St Thomas, UWW, UWL and the Pool A bid from the UMAC, CSS.  Add the IIAC Pool A bid and the NATHC champ and voila!

I hope the committee will be more creative than that given how many regionals are close by.
You have to move the teams out of the Mid-Atlantic.

When you look at the 500-mile radii of the host sites, I think that Concordia-Austin gets filled with the West Region teams, then the next one will be Millington TN.

From there, I think that they start sorting out the east coast.