Author Topic: Rank the Mideast Region  (Read 24434 times)

Offline Bishopleftiesdad

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Re: Rank the Mideast Region
« Reply #30 on: April 02, 2013, 03:15:48 pm »
Thanks Jos_s. They are young and need to find consistency. +1

Offline Bishopleftiesdad

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Re: Rank the Mideast Region
« Reply #31 on: April 03, 2013, 07:48:37 pm »
After sweeping Hiedi on Tuesday, 4-3 and 4-2, Ott falls to OWU, 5-3. Ott allowed 5 runs in the 8th inning.

Offline jos s

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Re: Rank the Mideast Region
« Reply #32 on: April 07, 2013, 08:06:51 am »
So far ..... The Mideast region is incredible..... Must be 15 teams with over 12 wins..... Wow !

Offline jos s

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Re: Rank the Mideast Region
« Reply #33 on: April 07, 2013, 08:30:27 am »
I take that back......19 teams in the region with 12 or more wins...... 6 with 14 or more.... With 5 playoff spots going to conf winners.....those last couple of spots are going to be a real shoot out !

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Re: Rank the Mideast Region
« Reply #34 on: April 07, 2013, 11:33:49 am »
As a way to try to approximate regional rankings, I'm compiling a list of teams with above .500 regional records in order of in-region schedule strength.

I'm not getting a whole lot of certainty out of this other than Marietta being at the top. They have the highest schedule rating of any team with .800 or better in-region winning percentage. The other schools ranked in the top 50 at .800 or better are Johns Hopkins, Ramapo and Kean. So it appears the rumors of the Etta Express's derailment were greatly exaggerated.

Team   Regional record   Rwin%OWP (rank)   OOWP   NCAA
15 Marietta         12-2   .857   .6281 (22)           .5486    0.602
70 Mount Union   8-7   .533   .5830 (60)    .5010    0.556
79 John Carroll   7-6   .538   .5789 (62)    .4835    0.547
86 Adrian         11-6   .647   .5517 (91)    .5225    0.542
99 Denison           9-8   .529   .5431 (104)   .5270    0.538
116 Case West.   14-6   .700   .5260 (151)   .5486    0.534
119 Olivet            7-6   .538   .5390 (116)   .5202    0.533
122 Ohio Wes.   8-5   .615   .5380 (121)   .5188    0.532
192 Thiel          11-9   .550   .5100 (179)   .5065    0.509
204 Baldwin-W.   11-3   .786   .5000 (201)   .5148    0.505
211 La Roche   17-4   .810   .4817 (245)   .5442    0.503
228 Wooster   7-3   .700   .4952 (223)   .4975    0.496
236 Thom. More   10-6   .625   .4800 (251)   .5194    0.493
269 Allegheny   11-4   .733   .4421 (300)   .5527    0.479
275 Defiance   8-5   .615   .4778 (255)   .4737    0.476
277 Oberlin   3-1   .750   .5172 (169)   .3927    0.476
292 PSUBehrend   10-5   .667   .4350 (306)   .5282    0.466
303 Calvin            8-6   .571   .4507 (286)   .4796    0.460
305 Manchester   13-3   .812   .4321 (310)   .5078    0.457
307 Wittenberg   7-5   .583   .4386 (302)   .4926    0.457
324 Otterbein   6-4   .600   .4077 (325)   .5211    0.446
330 W and J   10-3   .769   .3636 (349)   .5703    0.432
333 Bluffton   11-10.524   .3853 (341)   .5185    0.430

Offline DagarmanSpartan

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Re: Rank the Mideast Region
« Reply #35 on: April 07, 2013, 11:43:58 am »
NO WAY Case should be behind John Carroll.

Spence

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Re: Rank the Mideast Region
« Reply #36 on: April 07, 2013, 11:48:31 am »
NO WAY Case should be behind John Carroll.

There is no should or shouldn't be. This is pure math. If they are, it's because they should be.

Case has played a pretty tough overall schedule, but many of those were not in-region games.

Offline DagarmanSpartan

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Re: Rank the Mideast Region
« Reply #37 on: April 07, 2013, 03:38:31 pm »
Then it's pretty "fuzzy" math given that Case already beat JCU this year.

Granted, Case still has two more games scheduled against JCU this season, as well as two games against Denison, so those programs still have a chance to prove that they deserve their higher rankings.

But at this point, no way JCU should be ranked ahead of a team that beat them.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2013, 03:41:03 pm by JagranSpartan »

Spence

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Re: Rank the Mideast Region
« Reply #38 on: April 07, 2013, 04:01:50 pm »
You clearly don't get what this list is.

In other news, W&J with a very big 11-10 road win over Marietta. Marietta playing their 5th game in 4 days going against W&J's ace, but it was the bullpen that held firm after Marietta built a 9-0 lead.

MC tried to use Byers and Mulvey in relief late to keep the lead from slipping completely away but were unable to do it. 11 walks for Marietta pitching.

Offline motorman

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Re: Rank the Mideast Region
« Reply #39 on: April 07, 2013, 04:05:10 pm »
Then it's pretty "fuzzy" math given that Case already beat JCU this year.

Granted, Case still has two more games scheduled against JCU this season, as well as two games against Denison, so those programs still have a chance to prove that they deserve their higher rankings.

But at this point, no way JCU should be ranked ahead of a team that beat them.

It isn't fuzzy math, it is a calculation of strength of schedule, not a ranking. It doesn't take into account if you won those games or not.

I do have a question for you Spence. How is South Region Huntingdon included in Marietta's regional strength of schedule calculation?

Spence

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Re: Rank the Mideast Region
« Reply #40 on: April 07, 2013, 04:14:46 pm »
Then it's pretty "fuzzy" math given that Case already beat JCU this year.

Granted, Case still has two more games scheduled against JCU this season, as well as two games against Denison, so those programs still have a chance to prove that they deserve their higher rankings.

But at this point, no way JCU should be ranked ahead of a team that beat them.

It isn't fuzzy math, it is a calculation of strength of schedule, not a ranking. It doesn't take into account if you won those games or not.

I do have a question for you Spence. How is South Region Huntingdon included in Marietta's regional strength of schedule calculation?

That is a question for someone at the NCAA. They expanded the regions for the purpose of counting in-region games so that teams could get more "in-region" games. Alabama is apparently in region.

Offline ADL70

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Re: Rank the Mideast Region
« Reply #41 on: April 07, 2013, 11:31:03 pm »
NO WAY Case should be behind John Carroll.

There is no should or shouldn't be. This is pure math. If they are, it's because they should be.

Case has played a pretty tough overall schedule, but many of those were not in-region games.
   ???
All of Case's games are in-region.

Maybe what you meant was that their opponent's wins were not in region.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2013, 11:43:14 pm by ADL70 »
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Spence

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Re: Rank the Mideast Region
« Reply #42 on: April 08, 2013, 12:38:37 am »
NO WAY Case should be behind John Carroll.

There is no should or shouldn't be. This is pure math. If they are, it's because they should be.

Case has played a pretty tough overall schedule, but many of those were not in-region games.
   ???
All of Case's games are in-region.

Maybe what you meant was that their opponent's wins were not in region.

I didn't think Brandeis or Washington STL were in region. Maybe they are because it's their conference?

Whatever it is, I didn't make it what it is. The numbers are what they are. I'm not sure why there's any argument here at all.
« Last Edit: April 08, 2013, 01:25:44 am by Spence »

Offline jos s

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Re: Rank the Mideast Region
« Reply #43 on: April 08, 2013, 07:40:20 am »
i can fully understand the frustration over the math...many things go into the selection of the playoff teams, and there are a lot of games to play and help everything unfold.  Case winning the UAA conf tourney , and if they can once again earn a 30 win season should get it done.  But Case has a meat grinder sced coming up with games against oberlin....W & J... Depauw.. John Carroll..  baldwin wallace and marrietta.   i don't see anyone else with a road that tough.

Offline ADL70

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Re: Rank the Mideast Region
« Reply #44 on: April 08, 2013, 11:22:32 am »
No argument with your SOS post Spence.  +k for posting it.

Yes, Brandeis and WUStL are in region since they are UAA foes.

After Sunday JCU's SOS is below CWRU's.

Still a week or two before the first RR.

jos s ...the UAA title by itself doesn't mean anything.  But wins over WUStL will mean a lot, both for RR and Pool B

ME top 10 by region win% (with SoS)

1. Manchester       .812                     LaRoche            .810   (.488)   Just checked they are MA not ME
2  Marietta            .800   (.603)
     W&J                  ,800   (.446)
4. BW                   .786   (.510)
5. Allegheny         .765   (.479)
6. Adrian               .684   (.536)
7. CWRU               .682   (.534)
8. Wooster           .667   (.537)
9. Hope               .647   (.553)
    Thomas More  .647   (.481)

PS Behrend is MA also

For kicks I approximated best record v best sched by multiplying win % by SoS

 1. Marietta         .482
 2. BW                 .404
                                                      LaRoche       .395  MA not ME
 3. W&J               .377
 4. Manchester    .376
 5. Adrian            .367
 6. Allegheny       .366
 7. CWRU            .364
 8. Wooster         .358
     Hope              .358
10. Thomas More .311


CWRU has games remaining v #s 1, 2, and 3.  Plus Dension which has a high SoS
« Last Edit: April 08, 2013, 02:59:00 pm by ADL70 »
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