Author Topic: The Race for the 2013 Regional Births.  (Read 19398 times)

Offline EttaFan1

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The Race for the 2013 Regional Births.
« on: April 19, 2013, 10:30:49 am »
We are probably deep enough into the season where we can start to look at how the conference races are shaping up for a birth in the Mid-East Region (or Great Lakes Region?).  According to a post earlier this year, the conferences involved are:

Allegheny Moutain Collegiate Conference (new addition)
Heartland Collegiate Conference
Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association
North Coast Conference
Ohio Athletic Conference
Presidents Athletic Conference


Looking around these conferences in the region...

The president's conference is a hot mess.  Canellations have led to a disparity in the number of games played.  W&J is 12-5 and is in fourth place right now.  St. Vincent is 8-2 and leads the conference.  Thiel and Thomas More are tied at 10-4.  Big difference between playing 17 games and 10 games, though. 

The MIAA is a more interesting race this season.  Either the conference is better or Adrian has taken a step backwards or both.  In the past few years, Adrian won the conference title by very large margins.  This year they are in tight race with Hope, both of whom are 11-5.  Olivet (8-6), Trine and Calvin (9-7) are the next two and Albion is hanging around at 8-8.  If I'm not mistaken they recently began using a tournament.

The HCAC is being led by Manchester at 13-2.  There ar 7 teams all clustered within two games of each other battling out for the 3 remaining slots in the tournament. 

The NCAC with its two division format looks like this.  In the east Wooster leads Allegheny by a game and Oberlin is three games back.  In the west, Dension leads Depauw by a game and the rest of the pack has each played four fewer games than those two. 

The OAC is a 5 team race with Marietta out front.  BW is ineligible.  Marietta, JCU, Mount Union, Otterbein and Heidelberg are battling for the four tournaments spots.  Marietta, JCU and Mount Union look to be in good shape for the conference tournament.  The Cardinals and Heidelberg have work to do. 

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=7459.0 Is when I saw where the AMCC was now part of the region. Their champions have come to the mideast regional the past three seasons.  Anyhow....Penn State Beherend and LaRoche each have one league loss, but PSUb has four more league victories.  Pitt Greensburg and Pitt Bradford are in the three and four spots. 

Case Western is the independent school out there having a good year which has a chance to find a spot in the regional. 

 


OshDude

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Re: The Race for the 2013 Regional Births.
« Reply #1 on: April 19, 2013, 04:23:00 pm »
AMCC brass says the conference is still in the Mid-Atlantic this season.

Offline EttaFan1

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Re: The Race for the 2013 Regional Births.
« Reply #2 on: April 19, 2013, 05:25:06 pm »
Good to know, thanks!

Offline EttaFan1

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Re: The Race for the 2013 Regional Births.
« Reply #3 on: April 22, 2013, 10:58:26 am »
Through games ending 4/21

MIAA:
1. Hope 13-5
2. Adrian 14-6
3. Trine 11-7
4. Calvin 9-8
5. Olivet 9-9

Still plenty of league matchups left to go.  THis is the closest race for the MIAA in the last few years.

HCAC
1. Manchester 15-3
2. Anderson 12-6
3. Definace 11-7
4. Rose Hulman 9-7
5. Bluffton 9-8

two full weekends of games to be played so the race for those four spots is on.

NCAC
East
1.  Wooster 10-2 (Clinched birth in Tournament)
2.  Allegheny 7-3
3. Oberlin 7-7

West
1. Dennsion 10-6
2. Depauw 7-5
3. A bunch of others at 5-7

Big series for Allegeheny as they play Wooster this weekend. 

President's Athletic Conference
1. Thomas More 12-5
2. W&J 14-6
3. St. Vincent 9-4
4. Thiel 11-6

Still a big disparity in games played.  Things will sort themselves out as the schedule continues. Big game at W&J this weekend as Thomas More travels to Washington PA.

OAC
1.  Marietta 11-3
2.  BW 10-4 (ineligible)
3.  JCU 9-5
4.  Otterbien 8-6
5.  Heidelberg 7-7
     Mount Union 7-7

The series on Saturday between JCU and Heidelberg is HUGE.  Marietta squares off against BW on Saturday.

DOWN THE STRETCH THEY COME!

Spence

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Re: The Race for the 2013 Regional Births.
« Reply #4 on: April 22, 2013, 11:23:32 am »
Really great stuff!

One addition...I believe Denison has also clinched a berth in the NCAC postseason. Their division slate is complete, and only DePauw has fewer losses.

In the other division, Allegheny is 7-3 but has two makeup games with Kenyon and faces Wooster while Kenyon faces Hiram. So still much to play for there.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2013, 12:08:16 pm by Spence »

Spence

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Re: The Race for the 2013 Regional Births.
« Reply #5 on: April 22, 2013, 12:56:39 pm »
It's getting close to where Case might be a 2 seed in the regional, and theoretically 1 seed depending on how they do in Marietta in a couple of weeks.

Impressive bounceback after the split against Oberlin. Very busy schedule in the next week-plus.


Offline jos s

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Re: The Race for the 2013 Regional Births.
« Reply #6 on: April 22, 2013, 01:43:10 pm »
 ;D wow, thanks so much for the Case props...  what an incredible honor it would be to not only make the tourney, but be a top seed.  Coach E and his staff have this team playing really well.  Still a tough sced ahead to get thru.... JCU...washington and jefferson....dennison... BW...marietta....gotta just keep fighting each game.

Offline EttaFan1

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Re: The Race for the 2013 Regional Births.
« Reply #7 on: April 22, 2013, 03:24:02 pm »
The first regional rankings are due out this week.  I fully expect to see Case in one of the top four spots.  They are having a good run so far this year and their slate of games down the stretch will be a good barometer of where they stand. 


Spence

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Re: The Race for the 2013 Regional Births.
« Reply #8 on: April 22, 2013, 04:02:36 pm »
;D wow, thanks so much for the Case props...  what an incredible honor it would be to not only make the tourney, but be a top seed.  Coach E and his staff have this team playing really well.  Still a tough sced ahead to get thru.... JCU...washington and jefferson....dennison... BW...marietta....gotta just keep fighting each game.

There's a pretty good break before Marietta. That will be a big test for both teams, really. Case playing at Marietta and MC going against Case's top arms presumably without their own since they play a league DH the day before.

The rest of April is going to be a bear though. Dropping a game here and there will be no embarrassment at all.

Offline EttaFan1

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Re: The Race for the 2013 Regional Births.
« Reply #9 on: April 22, 2013, 04:30:02 pm »
That will be an interesting weekend for the Express.  Lowly Wilmington on Friday.  And then a big "in region" matchup with Case on Saturday.  Marietta could have hosting the tournament clinched after this weekend (Not a prediction, depends on what happens between JCU and 'Berg along with the twinbill against BW: sweep plus a JCU loss = host the tournament). Wilmington is all kinds of bad.  If the outcome of the Wilmington series "doesn't matter," (First priority is win the league and host the tournament) do we see Carithers/Herstine/Fulton/Bascom/Knittel against the Quakers, and use Mulvey/Byers/Brock/Finlan against CWRU? 

Love this time of year!
« Last Edit: April 22, 2013, 04:44:23 pm by EttaFan1 »

Offline jskomra10

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Re: The Race for the 2013 Regional Births.
« Reply #10 on: April 22, 2013, 09:35:55 pm »
Someone give me their idea of the top 10 regional teams at this point before rankings come out tomorrow

Spence

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Re: The Race for the 2013 Regional Births.
« Reply #11 on: April 23, 2013, 12:13:59 am »
Someone give me their idea of the top 10 regional teams at this point before rankings come out tomorrow

1. Marietta
2. Case Western
3. Manchester
4. Hope
5. Denison
6. Adrian
7. Wooster
8. B-W
9. W&J
10. John Carroll

My guess is that Wooster will be ranked higher than I have them, and Denison lower.

Offline EttaFan1

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Re: The Race for the 2013 Regional Births.
« Reply #12 on: April 23, 2013, 08:45:02 am »
Some Data to consider...

Looking at the Regional Win Pct, and NCAA SOS, and overall SOS rank for these 10 teams, here is what we see (From the link on the d3baseball sight). 

1. Marietta - .783 - .572 - 19th
2.  Case Western - .714 - .552 - 55th
3. Manchester - .792 - .485 - 278th
4.  Hope - .640 - .530 - 112th
5.  Denison - .600 - .515 - 156th
6. Adrian - .714 - .496 - 238th
7. Wooster - .762 - .540 - 79th
8. B-W - .696 - .482 - 281st
9. W & J .667 - .501 - 214th
10. John Carroll - .609 - .512 - 169th

Others in consideration:

Thomas More - .704 - .486 - 261st
Anderson - .609 - .506 - 191st
Allegheny - .654 - .504 - 199th
Heidelberg - .542 - .553 - 52nd


If we use the Boyd's Iterative Strength Rankings (http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/d3_isr.html)

This is what we see. (rank, team, SOS rank)
 
15. Marietta - 33
17 CWRU - 39
22 Manchester - 189
47 Denison - 44
30 Wooster - 127
128 Adrian - 268
62 B-W - 149
81 JCU - 166
104 W&J 256
122 Hope - 257

123 Allegheny - 227
63 Thomas More - 220
113 Anderson - 92
69 Heidelberg - 48

Massey's computer rankings (http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cbase&yr=2013&sub=11620)

Rating - team- SOS rank

23 Marietta - 42
28 CWRU - 39
27 Manchester - 184
59 Denison 52
30 Wooster - 101
119 Adrian 253
40 B-W 92
92  JCU -162
120 W&J 240
115 Hope 194

134 Allegheny 232
63 Thomas More 223
131 Anderson  76
89 Heidelberg 61

Using this information (since I haven't see all of the teams play, and have to have something to base my thoughts) Here is how I would rank the teams in the Mideast Region.

1.  Marietta
2.  Case Western Reserve
3.  Manchester
4.  Wooster
5.  B-W
6.  Dennison
7.  John Carroll
8.  Heidelberg
9.  Washington & Jefferson
10.  Hope

An argument can be made for Mount Union (if you are also considering Heidelberg), but their SOS numbers are not particularly strong, and Heidelberg dominated them.  I don't think the MIAA is strong enough to warrant two teams for consideration.  The interesting thing is who will be good enough to qualify for a pool C birth if they don't win their conference?  Case is a possibility (particularly if they have success this month against a pretty good slate of teams).  Marietta is a possibility if they don't completely fall apart between now and season's end.  Manchester's SOS numbers are worrisome.  I don't know that the NCAC gets two bids.

« Last Edit: April 23, 2013, 09:51:56 am by EttaFan1 »

Offline Bishopleftiesdad

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Re: The Race for the 2013 Regional Births.
« Reply #13 on: April 23, 2013, 09:57:12 am »
I do not see any way possible for the NCAC to get two bids this year either. With as good as Denison has been they do not quite match up against the better teams in the region. Same goes for Wooster and Depauw.


Spence

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Re: The Race for the 2013 Regional Births.
« Reply #14 on: April 23, 2013, 12:02:36 pm »
I do not see any way possible for the NCAC to get two bids this year either. With as good as Denison has been they do not quite match up against the better teams in the region. Same goes for Wooster and Depauw.

Without knowing what happens in conference tournaments, it's hard to say. But this seems right to me.