Author Topic: Pool C -- 2013  (Read 26400 times)

Offline hazzben

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Re: Pool C -- 2013
« Reply #195 on: November 12, 2013, 10:55:02 am »
It is unlikely that any of us discussing the possibilities on this board will be sitting in the selection committee. Do they lurk? Unknown to me, Pat might know. One could hope that it was required reading because then they would have a feel for what "the country" is thinking in a collective sense. (Or at least what the vocal fans were saying/thinking.) Every year for the past 5 or so that I've been following closely here on D3.com a similar song gets sung - "my 2 or 3 loss team can beat your 1 loss team, so it should get in to Pool C".

I'd disagree with this for the following reasons:

1. There is a good deal of homerism on these boards. Some posters are well informed and others just aren't. Unless you follow the boards closely for the duration of a season, and even over the course of a few years, you don't know who to lend an ear to and who to tune out.

2. They shouldn't be making this decision at all based on what the fans are saying/thinking. Not...at...all. I've said before, I'd love to see Pat or Keith get a seat on the nominating committee, to bring in an exhaustive knowledge of D3, the playoff history, a national perspective, etc. But I don't want even the most knowledgable fan anywhere close to the selection criteria.

3. Added to this is that what is represented here on the boards is in no way, shape, or form a fair sampling of what 'the country is thinking.' Not that it should even matter, but what we see on here is anecdotal evidence of opinions. Some teams are more represented, and their fans post more frequently and more vocally. That shouldn't bias the selection process. Where a team having a good season, but with few d3football.com posters doesn't pass the 'smell test' because they aren't getting mentioned as much or as passionately in the conversation.

4. As the Regional Committees are now set up, they are generally representative of the regions. Members can speak to the teams they've seen and played against. Representation is happening. And let's be honest, the coach who spends 80-90 hours preparing to face team X, then actually faces off against them on the field, has a much better sense of who they are than any of us casual fans. I've seen every Bethel game this year and watched portions or full games of a dozen other teams that are in the hunt. But I don't for a second think I have the best read on UST, Concordia and SJU. Johnson and Horan have hundreds of hours seeing these teams. Same goes for the other reps. The AD's have no doubt been informed of their respective coaches opinions.

I just don't want the Regional or National committees sniffing anywhere around these boards. Some great things find there way on here. But there's also plenty that is way out in left field. Just my 22˘  :)


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Offline ExTartanPlayer

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Re: Pool C -- 2013
« Reply #196 on: November 12, 2013, 11:32:47 am »
It is unlikely that any of us discussing the possibilities on this board will be sitting in the selection committee. Do they lurk? Unknown to me, Pat might know. One could hope that it was required reading because then they would have a feel for what "the country" is thinking in a collective sense. (Or at least what the vocal fans were saying/thinking.) Every year for the past 5 or so that I've been following closely here on D3.com a similar song gets sung - "my 2 or 3 loss team can beat your 1 loss team, so it should get in to Pool C".

I'd disagree with this for the following reasons:

1. There is a good deal of homerism on these boards. Some posters are well informed and others just aren't. Unless you follow the boards closely for the duration of a season, and even over the course of a few years, you don't know who to lend an ear to and who to tune out.

2. They shouldn't be making this decision at all based on what the fans are saying/thinking. Not...at...all. I've said before, I'd love to see Pat or Keith get a seat on the nominating committee, to bring in an exhaustive knowledge of D3, the playoff history, a national perspective, etc. But I don't want even the most knowledgable fan anywhere close to the selection criteria.

3. Added to this is that what is represented here on the boards is in no way, shape, or form a fair sampling of what 'the country is thinking.' Not that it should even matter, but what we see on here is anecdotal evidence of opinions. Some teams are more represented, and their fans post more frequently and more vocally. That shouldn't bias the selection process. Where a team having a good season, but with few d3football.com posters doesn't pass the 'smell test' because they aren't getting mentioned as much or as passionately in the conversation.

4. As the Regional Committees are now set up, they are generally representative of the regions. Members can speak to the teams they've seen and played against. Representation is happening. And let's be honest, the coach who spends 80-90 hours preparing to face team X, then actually faces off against them on the field, has a much better sense of who they are than any of us casual fans. I've seen every Bethel game this year and watched portions or full games of a dozen other teams that are in the hunt. But I don't for a second think I have the best read on UST, Concordia and SJU. Johnson and Horan have hundreds of hours seeing these teams. Same goes for the other reps. The AD's have no doubt been informed of their respective coaches opinions.

I just don't want the Regional or National committees sniffing anywhere around these boards. Some great things find there way on here. But there's also plenty that is way out in left field. Just my 22˘  :)

I just tried to +K you for this post and got rejected because you dropped so much wisdom that I already did so this morning.  This is beautifully stated.  The D3boards realm is by and large a reasonable and thoughtful community but we are all at least somewhat homer-ish...and even if we weren't, you are absolutely correct that philosophically, the national committee and regional committees should pay no attention to fans' opinions, no matter how well-informed those fans are.

Offline bleedpurple

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Re: Pool C -- 2013
« Reply #197 on: November 12, 2013, 11:40:28 am »
After listening to this week's podcast and hearing the list of one loss teams (and seeing who they play this week), I think the chances of any two loss teams making it are very, very slim. And the good thing is, none of them would have a valid complaint. Win your games.
The one loss teams didn't win their games either.  We see plenty of examples of 2 loss teams ranked ahead of 1 loss teams in the regional rankings.

That is true as well.  It is always frustrating for teams who "barely miss out" on a pool C bid, especially for teams that feel they could beat at least half of the field.  But at the end of the day, the true pathway for Pool A teams to make the playoffs is winning your conference.  If your team doesn't do that, you may be frustrated by not getting a Pool C bid, but ultimately need to realize it was because your team didn't win conference. At the beginning of the season, all Pool A teams have a pathway. If you don't take it,  you are asking for disappointment.

Offline AO

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Re: Pool C -- 2013
« Reply #198 on: November 12, 2013, 11:48:33 am »
I think we're giving a little too much credit to the committees.  They are restrained by the criteria.  They can't use their knowledge from watching film or even a ranking system that utilizes margin of victory in its calculation.  We're left to guess which criteria the current makeup of the committee favors.

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C -- 2013
« Reply #199 on: November 12, 2013, 11:56:30 am »
I think we're giving a little too much credit to the committees.  They are restrained by the criteria.  They can't use their knowledge from watching film or even a ranking system that utilizes margin of victory in its calculation.  We're left to guess which criteria the current makeup of the committee favors.

Bingo.  It's different every year.  As I've said, once you're down to the final four for that last spot this year, you can make a perfectly reasonable argument for pretty much any of the four.  It's anybody's guess as to who wins that debate. 
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Offline desertcat1

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Re: Pool C -- 2013
« Reply #200 on: November 12, 2013, 12:18:44 pm »
HENCE     "LEAVE NO DOUBT"  Been there done that.. ;)

Just win baby.. ;D
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Offline smedindy

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Re: Pool C -- 2013
« Reply #201 on: November 12, 2013, 01:45:08 pm »
Win your league.
Failing that, lose just one game.
Failing that, you probably failed.
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Offline SaintsFAN

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Re: Pool C -- 2013
« Reply #202 on: November 12, 2013, 01:52:30 pm »
I think we're giving a little too much credit to the committees.  They are restrained by the criteria.  They can't use their knowledge from watching film or even a ranking system that utilizes margin of victory in its calculation.  We're left to guess which criteria the current makeup of the committee favors.

Agree 100% - can't wait to hear the reasoning annually.
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Offline K-Mack

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Re: Pool C -- 2013
« Reply #203 on: November 13, 2013, 01:32:26 am »
If anybody's awake, I soft-published an ATN regional ranking primer with full examinations of Pools B and C and a Q&A sesh at the end.

I proofread it, but I won't add it to the front rotation until the morning. If you examine the numbers and see something wrong, or that I missed, please let me know.

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Offline wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C -- 2013
« Reply #204 on: November 13, 2013, 01:50:55 am »
Looks good to me, Keith. Particularly your note about the mechanics of the process and what it means for SJF/Alfred. SJF, at the table all night with their SOS and the WJ result (if WJ wins this week) makes the Wabash fan in me more nervous than anything else, St Thomas included.
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Offline K-Mack

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Re: Pool C -- 2013
« Reply #205 on: November 13, 2013, 09:20:04 am »
Thanks. I can always count on you and Smed and the longtime posters.
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Offline smedindy

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Re: Pool C -- 2013
« Reply #206 on: November 13, 2013, 12:59:14 pm »
The "C" decisions really will determine how many teams get 'moved'. I think it's safe to say the OAC winner and UW-Whitwater will be leading brackets along with Linfield and UMHB. I think it's pretty safe that St. Norbert will follow UW-Whitewater, perhaps, and that if the "C" team is Wabash or Thomas More the OAC runner up will move "East". But if the MIAC gets a "C" or the East gets a "C", then that'll start the wheels spinning.

Of course this is conjecture. Who knows what the committee will cook up and if they'll just focus on round one on 'close by' matchups.
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Offline K-Mack

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Re: Pool C -- 2013
« Reply #207 on: November 13, 2013, 01:14:26 pm »
The "C" decisions really will determine how many teams get 'moved'. I think it's safe to say the OAC winner and UW-Whitwater will be leading brackets along with Linfield and UMHB. I think it's pretty safe that St. Norbert will follow UW-Whitewater, perhaps, and that if the "C" team is Wabash or Thomas More the OAC runner up will move "East". But if the MIAC gets a "C" or the East gets a "C", then that'll start the wheels spinning.

Of course this is conjecture. Who knows what the committee will cook up and if they'll just focus on round one on 'close by' matchups.

I don't think it's safe to say that at all, especially if St. Thomas gets into the rankings this week. That gives Bethel a whopping four results vs. RROs -- St. John's, Concordia-Moorhead and Wartburg were all ranked last week.

If they are 10-0 and have a power SoS, I don't see how you can deny them a 1 seed.
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Offline wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C -- 2013
« Reply #208 on: November 13, 2013, 01:27:43 pm »
The "C" decisions really will determine how many teams get 'moved'. I think it's safe to say the OAC winner and UW-Whitwater will be leading brackets along with Linfield and UMHB. I think it's pretty safe that St. Norbert will follow UW-Whitewater, perhaps, and that if the "C" team is Wabash or Thomas More the OAC runner up will move "East". But if the MIAC gets a "C" or the East gets a "C", then that'll start the wheels spinning.

Of course this is conjecture. Who knows what the committee will cook up and if they'll just focus on round one on 'close by' matchups.

I don't think it's safe to say that at all, especially if St. Thomas gets into the rankings this week. That gives Bethel a whopping four results vs. RROs -- St. John's, Concordia-Moorhead and Wartburg were all ranked last week.

If they are 10-0 and have a power SoS, I don't see how you can deny them a 1 seed.

Should Bethel beat SJU, the Johnnies will disappear, but then you're still left with Bethel being 10-0, with a monster SOS and likely 3-0 vs. RROs, which in the absence of once-ranked-always-ranked is insane.  If Bethel isn't at the top of one of the four quadrants, there ought to be an investigation. 

Of course this is conjecture. Who knows what the committee will cook up and if they'll just focus on round one on 'close by' matchups.

It's so hard to figure out how they'll bracket things.  They did 4-team pods a couple of years ago and mixed and matched those pods in interesting ways and it was awesome.  I think I remember reading somewhere that there is an increased re-emphasis on travel costs this year, so I think we'll probably wind up with a the more traditional/old school/boring geographic clusters, but it's anybody's guess really. 
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Offline d-train

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Re: Pool C -- 2013
« Reply #209 on: November 13, 2013, 01:45:39 pm »

I don't think it's safe to say that at all, especially if St. Thomas gets into the rankings this week. That gives Bethel a whopping four results vs. RROs -- St. John's, Concordia-Moorhead and Wartburg were all ranked last week.

If they are 10-0 and have a power SoS, I don't see how you can deny them a 1 seed.

Should Bethel beat SJU, the Johnnies will disappear, but then you're still left with Bethel being 10-0, with a monster SOS and likely 3-0 vs. RROs, which in the absence of once-ranked-always-ranked is insane.  If Bethel isn't at the top of one of the four quadrants, there ought to be an investigation. 

But that assumes Concordia-Moorhead is still ranked after losing this week, right?  Could be just Wartburg and the possibility of UST.