Author Topic: 2014 Bracketology  (Read 11111 times)

Offline Scott Bridges

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Re: 2014 Bracketology
« Reply #30 on: February 08, 2014, 01:09:55 pm »
Who is the first team out in this scenario, Eau Claire?

Correct.

Also, the team next in line in the East behind Geneseo is currently NEC.
The other sites PWC


Geneseo vs Wisconsin-Eau Claire
WIN 0.7647 1      0.7353 0
SOS 0.4806 0      0.5125 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0       0- 0- 0 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0       0- 0- 0 0
RNK 0- 0- 0 0       0- 0- 0 0
============================================
PTS         1               1


That will come down to RvR.

Those numbers are not accurate. You are looking at the National rankings comparison which has always been flawed. You have to look at their regional ranking data for accurate numbers. Also, in my comparison I took in to account their record vs. projected ranked teams. Geneseo is 2-1-0 and UWEC is 1-3-0. Also, their record in last 25% of the season: Geneseo is 3-2-0 and UWEC is 4-1-0. Which leaves us with

Geneseo vs Wisconsin-Eau Claire
WIN 0.7647 1      0.7632 0
SOS 0.4926 0      0.4987 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0       0- 0- 0 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0       0- 0- 0 0
RNK 2- 1- 0 1       1- 3- 0 0
25% 3- 2- 0 0      4- 1- 0 1
============================================
PTS         2               2

In my opinion, the WIN and SOS are dead even, and Geneseo's RNK outweighs UWEC's advantage in the last 25%.
I have a hard time talking about this now since UWEC will play UWSP twice plus stout, river falls, and superior once.  While Geneseo will play Oswego once and 4 sunyac teams at or below .500.  Now if Geneseo wins out and UWEC loses to UWSP twice, that will definitely work in Geneseo's favor.  But the odds of it playing out somewhere in the middle are much higher in my opinion.  We shall see how it plays out.

Also, does Geneseo's game against Adrian count for ranked teams?  I know there was some tweaking to what games count recently, but Webb is the expert when it comes to things like that.

Offline Matt R

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Re: 2014 Bracketology
« Reply #31 on: February 08, 2014, 02:37:05 pm »
Who is the first team out in this scenario, Eau Claire?

Correct.

Also, the team next in line in the East behind Geneseo is currently NEC.
The other sites PWC


Geneseo vs Wisconsin-Eau Claire
WIN 0.7647 1      0.7353 0
SOS 0.4806 0      0.5125 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0       0- 0- 0 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0       0- 0- 0 0
RNK 0- 0- 0 0       0- 0- 0 0
============================================
PTS         1               1


That will come down to RvR.

Those numbers are not accurate. You are looking at the National rankings comparison which has always been flawed. You have to look at their regional ranking data for accurate numbers. Also, in my comparison I took in to account their record vs. projected ranked teams. Geneseo is 2-1-0 and UWEC is 1-3-0. Also, their record in last 25% of the season: Geneseo is 3-2-0 and UWEC is 4-1-0. Which leaves us with

Geneseo vs Wisconsin-Eau Claire
WIN 0.7647 1      0.7632 0
SOS 0.4926 0      0.4987 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0       0- 0- 0 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0       0- 0- 0 0
RNK 2- 1- 0 1       1- 3- 0 0
25% 3- 2- 0 0      4- 1- 0 1
============================================
PTS         2               2

In my opinion, the WIN and SOS are dead even, and Geneseo's RNK outweighs UWEC's advantage in the last 25%.
I have a hard time talking about this now since UWEC will play UWSP twice plus stout, river falls, and superior once.  While Geneseo will play Oswego once and 4 sunyac teams at or below .500.  Now if Geneseo wins out and UWEC loses to UWSP twice, that will definitely work in Geneseo's favor.  But the odds of it playing out somewhere in the middle are much higher in my opinion.  We shall see how it plays out.

Also, does Geneseo's game against Adrian count for ranked teams?  I know there was some tweaking to what games count recently, but Webb is the expert when it comes to things like that.

Upon reviewing the Championship Handbook, it would seem out of region games now count across the board. If true, the prior projections are meaningless as they did not include those results.

Section 24
Selection Criteria
Primary Criteria
The primary criteria emphasize Division III competition (all contests leading up to NCAA championships); all criteria listed
will be evaluated (not listed in priority order).
●Won-lost percentage against Division III opponents;
●Division III head-to-head results;
●Results versus common Division III opponents;
●Results versus ranked Division III teams as established by the rankings at the time of selection. Conference postseason contests are included;
●Division III strength of schedule; and
●Won-lost percentage during the last 25 percent of the season (i.e., end-of-season performance).

Secondary Criteria
If the evaluation of the primary criteria does not result in a decision, the secondary criteria will be reviewed. The criteria listed will be evaluated (not listed in priority order). The secondary criteria introduce results against all non-Division III opponents, including those contests versus opponents from other classifications (i.e., NAIA, NCAA Divisions I and II).
●Non-Division III won-lost percentage;
●Results versus common non-Division III opponents.

Offline Matt R

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Re: 2014 Bracketology
« Reply #32 on: February 09, 2014, 11:24:59 pm »
Wow, what a weekend this was. A lot of movement in the projected rankings this week. Williams took the biggest tumble, going 0 for the weekend.

First, here are my projected rankings.

East
1- Plattsburgh
2- Babson
3- Norwich
4- Williams
5- Trinity
6- Geneseo
7- Amherst
8- Oswego

West
1- St. Norbert
2- UWSP
3- Adrian
4- UWEC
5- St. Thomas
6- GAC

The field starting with the current conference leaders.

ECAC East - Babson
ECAC Northeast - Nichols
MASCAC - Salem State
NESCAC - Amherst
SUNYAC - Plattsburgh
MIAC - St. Thomas
NCHA - St. Norbert

Now for the at large berths.

Pool B - UWSP

Pool C - Adrian
Pool C - UWEC
Pool C - Norwich

First team out - Williams

NCAA Play-ins
St. Thomas @ UWEC
Nichols @ Amherst
Salem State @ Norwich

NCAA Quarterfinals
St. Thomas/UWEC @ St. Norbert
Salem State/Norwich @ Babson
Adrian @ UWSP
Nichols/Amherst @ Plattsburgh

Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2014 Bracketology
« Reply #33 on: February 10, 2014, 11:41:05 am »
Friendly reminder to all....practice rankings tomorrow and first public rankings on 2/18. Getting closer...
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Offline spwood

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Re: 2014 Bracketology
« Reply #34 on: February 10, 2014, 12:50:17 pm »
Being nitpicky here, but it really changes your analysis.  Technically, Geneseo I believe controls its own destiny in SUNY due to having more conference wins than Plattsburgh does.  Assuming you added Geneseo as the SUNYAC rep, would Plattsburgh replace Norwich in your analysis?

Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2014 Bracketology
« Reply #35 on: February 10, 2014, 02:17:17 pm »
Matt - Are you correcting the win percentages to be those that the NCAA will actually be using this year? 
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Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2014 Bracketology
« Reply #36 on: February 10, 2014, 02:19:27 pm »
And the SOS numbers are far from accurate as well.
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Offline Matt R

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Re: 2014 Bracketology
« Reply #37 on: February 10, 2014, 06:34:45 pm »
Matt - Are you correcting the win percentages to be those that the NCAA will actually be using this year?

Yes, I am correcting the Win%. As for the SOS numbers, I am doing my best guesstimate based on USCHO'S regional ranking criteria as the NCAA formula is flawed and is impossible to duplicate. As a result, these projections are far from scientific but I would be surprised if the rankings look much different.

Offline Matt R

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Re: 2014 Bracketology
« Reply #38 on: February 10, 2014, 06:37:14 pm »
Being nitpicky here, but it really changes your analysis.  Technically, Geneseo I believe controls its own destiny in SUNY due to having more conference wins than Plattsburgh does.  Assuming you added Geneseo as the SUNYAC rep, would Plattsburgh replace Norwich in your analysis?

Correct. If that were to happen, Plattsburgh would get the Pool C over Norwich. I'd project them as the first Pool C team followed by Adrian and UWEC.

Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2014 Bracketology
« Reply #39 on: February 11, 2014, 08:40:05 am »

Yes, I am correcting the Win%. As for the SOS numbers, I am doing my best guesstimate based on USCHO'S regional ranking criteria as the NCAA formula is flawed and is impossible to duplicate. As a result, these projections are far from scientific but I would be surprised if the rankings look much different.

Likely correct as to rankings projection, though it's not impossible to duplicate the NCAAs SOS calculations.  You just have to average all of them together instead of using the composite win%.  Tedious yes, but it's possible.
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Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2014 Bracketology
« Reply #40 on: February 11, 2014, 10:57:08 am »
This year's selection process contains some notable changes.  Full outline: http://d3hockey.com/bracketology/men/13-14/2014-selection-process
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Offline joecct

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Re: 2014 Bracketology
« Reply #41 on: February 12, 2014, 09:49:05 pm »
Is there any team right now that can guarantee that they are in the tournament?
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Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2014 Bracketology
« Reply #42 on: February 13, 2014, 09:43:04 am »
Is there any team right now that can guarantee that they are in the tournament?

Good question, and tough call.  There probably are one or two, but it's tough to say for sure without accurate SOS numbers.  I'll be able to dig back into things later today, but as of last check they still didn't exist anywhere.
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Offline Matt R

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Re: 2014 Bracketology
« Reply #43 on: February 17, 2014, 12:05:06 am »
Here is my final stab at it before the official rankings come out this week.

East
1-Plattsburgh
2-Norwich
3-Babson
4-Trinity
5-Geneseo
6-Williams
7-Amherst
8-UMass-Boston


West
1-St. Norbert
2-UWSP
3-Adrian
4-St. Thomas
5-UWEC
6-GAC

Automatic Qualifiers

ECAC East- Norwich
ECAC Northeast- Nichols
MASCAC- Salem State
NESCAC- Trinity
SUNYAC- Geneseo
MIAC- St. Thomas
NCHA- St. Norbert

At-large berths

Pool B- Wis. Stevens Point

Pool C- Adrian
Pool C- Plattsburgh
Pool C- Babson

First team out- Williams

***Interestingly enough, if Adrian and/or Plattsburgh and/or Babson win their respective conference AQs, the field remains the same as St. Norbert, Norwich, and Geneseo would all still get in via Pool C.

NCAA Play-ins
Salem State @ Norwich
Nichols @ Babson
Geneseo @ Trinity

NCAA Quarterfinals
St. Thomas @ St. Norbert
Nichols/Babson @ Salem State/Norwich
Adrian @ UWSP
Geneseo/Trinity @ Plattsburgh

Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2014 Bracketology
« Reply #44 on: February 17, 2014, 12:08:17 am »
St. Thomas over UWEC even though UWEC wins H2H?

Note: I haven't looked at any numbers yet...so just a quick thought there.

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