Author Topic: Little East  (Read 154902 times)

Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: Little East
« Reply #1170 on: February 26, 2019, 02:21:21 pm »
FYI - the Northeast RAC only advises. Rankings are ultimately the responsibility of the national committee. The RACs can give them suggestions they eventually toss out and do completely different. People keep pointing towards RACs as the cause when most RACs versions of rankings are not the final versions.

Finally, there are actually two rankings done in the final weekend. The first is the one the RACs advise on, but the second is a final set that once the first are set the vRRO data is run again and the national committee adjusts again.

Finally, Dartmouth didn't have any data that indicated they should be above either Middlebury or Smith. They were behind Babson who didn't even make the tournament.

Dartmouth's numbers weren't bad ... but their loss to Babson kept them behind the Beavers.

I don't have the brain resources right now to dive into why they weren't ahead of Smith or Middlebury, but again they still probably would have been behind Babson.
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Offline SidelineHero

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Re: Little East
« Reply #1171 on: February 27, 2019, 07:09:02 am »
FYI - the Northeast RAC only advises. Rankings are ultimately the responsibility of the national committee. The RACs can give them suggestions they eventually toss out and do completely different. People keep pointing towards RACs as the cause when most RACs versions of rankings are not the final versions.

Finally, there are actually two rankings done in the final weekend. The first is the one the RACs advise on, but the second is a final set that once the first are set the vRRO data is run again and the national committee adjusts again.

Finally, Dartmouth didn't have any data that indicated they should be above either Middlebury or Smith. They were behind Babson who didn't even make the tournament.
 
Dartmouth's numbers weren't bad ... but their loss to Babson kept them behind the Beavers.

I don't have the brain resources right now to dive into why they weren't ahead of Smith or Middlebury, but again they still probably would have been behind Babson.

How did Babson fair against Regionally Ranked opponents? What was their strength of Schedule?  How did Babson do in their tournament?  Darmouth was better in all of these categories.  So other than the head to head Dartmouth is ahead of Babson.  Not to mention opponents opponents where Dartmouth beat East Conn twice this year.  The same East Conn that beat Amherst in Amherst.  Too many other factors in Dartmouth's favor to say that they belonged behind Babson especially when that loss came early.

Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: Little East
« Reply #1172 on: February 27, 2019, 02:19:32 pm »
So you are more than welcome to look these things up yourself and answer your own questions as well: https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2019/02/women-regional-rankings-final

But they were actually pretty close in all the categories (even the ones you made up):

Babson:   21-5 (.808) / 3-4 vRRO / SOS .543
UMD:   22-5 (.815) / 3-4 vRRO / SOS .562


- So the WL is pretty even. Committee probably considers that a draw.
- The vRRO hard number of 3-4 is even, but that isn't a hard number to the committee. "Results" allows them to dive in deeper. Babson may have an edge because their top ranked win in that category is higher ranked (slightly) than UMD. The committee could have also considered this a draw.
- The SOS does favor UMD a bit.
- However, another part of the Primary Criteria is head-to-head and Babson has a win in that category.
- Common opponents: Coast Guard (B 2-0; UMD 1-0). Probably a draw in that category.

All of those are Primary Criteria items. If the committee stopped there, the head-to-head probably tipped the scales. However, if the head-to-head and SOS was considered a win for both and left them "even" in the committee's mind, then they would have gone to Secondary Criteria and the non-conference SOS (since nothing else in Secondary is relevant). That might favor Babson. I don't have the non-conf SOS numbers, but looking at the schedules that could favor Babson.

BTW - "how did Babson do in their their tournament" is not a criteria in the at-large, rankings conversation. So not worth discussing. That option was reflected in the one more win in the WL category for UMD, but, again, I don't think that tips the scales.

I am absolutely not following the "opponents opponents." Because Eastern Connecticut beat Amherst and UMD beat ECSU twice (and lost to them in the one game that guarantees entrance to the tournament), UMD is somehow better? That isn't how this works. Babson would have had to play ECSU for that to matter (and the Amherst game still isn't a factor) and would have had to lose that game for something even close to that to matter.

So looking at it objectively with the facts ... I don't see how Darthmouth is "favored" what so ever.

And while you may not like the "loss" that "came early," newsflash: all games count the same. As we always say, "games played in November mean the same as games played in February." So a loss to Babson on December 31 (which, btw, is NOT early; it is six weeks into the season) is not going to be diminished in any way.

Finally "other factors" are outside the criteria and just your opinion. Committees don't make decisions on "other factors."

You can see all the info here: https://www.d3hoops.com/interactive/faq/ncaatournament
« Last Edit: February 27, 2019, 02:22:59 pm by Dave 'd-mac' McHugh »
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Offline 7express

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Re: Little East
« Reply #1173 on: February 27, 2019, 08:44:29 pm »
Dartmouth last year (2018) probably missed out due to the head-to-head loss against Roger Williams, which allowed the Hawks to stay in front the final rankings, and get the bid.

2019 Dartmouth hurt themselves with 2 very bad losses: Boston & Plymouth State.  The Boston loss you can probably get by with because Boston was hanging around at the bottom of the rankings for a while, but the Plymouth is a killer.  I'm not sure even if you win the Plymouth game and lose the Boston game is enough to get you in, as I'm not sure if the SOS would be improved (I'll let the experts like Dave, Pat, Gordan and Ryan Scott tabulate the SOS) but the WP would be slightly improved.  You win both of those games like Dartmouth should have, once again I won't comment on if that has any effects on the SOS, I'll let the experts explain that, but that greatly improves your winning percentage.  Instead of an 815 winning percentage, you are looking at a winning percentage of almost 90 (889%).  That improved winning percentage likely jumps them Babson in the rankings even with the head-to-head loss, and that improved winning percentage combined with what could be an improved SOS may as well jump them the St. Joes Monks as well.
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Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: Little East
« Reply #1174 on: February 28, 2019, 12:07:24 am »
The trick with the SOS is the game between opponents isn't tabulated. You would be hurt by beating a team if their WL% went down because of it and dinged their SOS as a result. So, the direct game is not tabulated into the math. Winning that game is more about WL%, rankings, etc.
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Offline SidelineHero

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Re: Little East
« Reply #1175 on: February 28, 2019, 06:28:24 am »
So you are more than welcome to look these things up yourself and answer your own questions as well: https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2019/02/women-regional-rankings-final

But they were actually pretty close in all the categories (even the ones you made up):

Babson:   21-5 (.808) / 3-4 vRRO / SOS .543
UMD:   22-5 (.815) / 3-4 vRRO / SOS .562


- So the WL is pretty even. Committee probably considers that a draw.
- The vRRO hard number of 3-4 is even, but that isn't a hard number to the committee. "Results" allows them to dive in deeper. Babson may have an edge because their top ranked win in that category is higher ranked (slightly) than UMD. The committee could have also considered this a draw.
- The SOS does favor UMD a bit.
- However, another part of the Primary Criteria is head-to-head and Babson has a win in that category.
- Common opponents: Coast Guard (B 2-0; UMD 1-0). Probably a draw in that category.

All of those are Primary Criteria items. If the committee stopped there, the head-to-head probably tipped the scales. However, if the head-to-head and SOS was considered a win for both and left them "even" in the committee's mind, then they would have gone to Secondary Criteria and the non-conference SOS (since nothing else in Secondary is relevant). That might favor Babson. I don't have the non-conf SOS numbers, but looking at the schedules that could favor Babson.

BTW - "how did Babson do in their their tournament" is not a criteria in the at-large, rankings conversation. So not worth discussing. That option was reflected in the one more win in the WL category for UMD, but, again, I don't think that tips the scales.

I am absolutely not following the "opponents opponents." Because Eastern Connecticut beat Amherst and UMD beat ECSU twice (and lost to them in the one game that guarantees entrance to the tournament), UMD is somehow better? That isn't how this works. Babson would have had to play ECSU for that to matter (and the Amherst game still isn't a factor) and would have had to lose that game for something even close to that to matter.

So looking at it objectively with the facts ... I don't see how Darthmouth is "favored" what so ever.

And while you may not like the "loss" that "came early," newsflash: all games count the same. As we always say, "games played in November mean the same as games played in February." So a loss to Babson on December 31 (which, btw, is NOT early; it is six weeks into the season) is not going to be diminished in any way.

Finally "other factors" are outside the criteria and just your opinion. Committees don't make decisions on "other factors."

You can see all the info here: https://www.d3hoops.com/interactive/faq/ncaatournament


with all that being said....Babson should have gotten in ahead of Middlebury.  Dartmouth ahead of Mount St Mary's.  Or Middlebury ahead of Dartmouth and Mount St Mary's.  The point is the selections are very questionable.  My second point is that the LEC is not being taken seriously enough. On that, you will not change my mind. 

Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: Little East
« Reply #1176 on: February 28, 2019, 12:23:56 pm »
Go ahead and prove your point ... all you do is throw around theories and ideas, but you don't back them. Back up that Babson should have been in ahead of Smith and Middlebury and use only the criteria to do it.
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Offline 7express

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Re: Little East
« Reply #1177 on: November 01, 2019, 10:10:38 pm »
Preseason poll:

https://www.gowarriorathletics.com/sports/mbkb/2019-20/releases/lec_hoop_polls

No shock Eastern is the class.  Western is the only school I've currently looked at that actually has the updated roster for 2019-20; they've got a bunch of freshmen & sophomores.  They'll compete as they always do under coach Kim, but not sure they have staying power.  Preseason #1 selection Eastern doesn't have a roster updated, and I'm not sure how many players left from last years team, but I know of one incoming freshmen, Jaclyn Santella, from RHAM, will be a player for them.  I believe they still have PG Julie Keckler who played very well as a freshmen, and of course the last year for Mya Villard.  When I see rosters for all 9 teams I'll make a prediction which will probably turn out horribly, like most of them do.
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Offline ECSUalum

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Re: Little East
« Reply #1178 on: November 02, 2019, 07:15:30 pm »
Preseason poll:

https://www.gowarriorathletics.com/sports/mbkb/2019-20/releases/lec_hoop_polls

No shock Eastern is the class.  Western is the only school I've currently looked at that actually has the updated roster for 2019-20; they've got a bunch of freshmen & sophomores.  They'll compete as they always do under coach Kim, but not sure they have staying power.  Preseason #1 selection Eastern doesn't have a roster updated, and I'm not sure how many players left from last years team, but I know of one incoming freshmen, Jaclyn Santella, from RHAM, will be a player for them.  I believe they still have PG Julie Keckler who played very well as a freshmen, and of course the last year for Mya Villard.  When I see rosters for all 9 teams I'll make a prediction which will probably turn out horribly, like most of them do.

Anna Berry who was a  top freshman last year was not included in the ECSU women's preseason write-up.  She is currently a star on the volleyball team and played both sports last year.  She may be looking to stay with volleyball this year.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2019, 10:26:55 am by ECSUalum »

Online ronk

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Re: Little East
« Reply #1179 on: November 02, 2019, 10:01:17 pm »
Preseason poll:

https://www.gowarriorathletics.com/sports/mbkb/2019-20/releases/lec_hoop_polls

No shock Eastern is the class.  Western is the only school I've currently looked at that actually has the updated roster for 2019-20; they've got a bunch of freshmen & sophomores.  They'll compete as they always do under coach Kim, but not sure they have staying power.  Preseason #1 selection Eastern doesn't have a roster updated, and I'm not sure how many players left from last years team, but I know of one incoming freshmen, Jaclyn Santella, from RHAM, will be a player for them.  I believe they still have PG Julie Keckler who played very well as a freshmen, and of course the last year for Mya Villard.  When I see rosters for all 9 teams I'll make a prediction which will probably turn out horribly, like most of them do.

Anna Berry who was a  top freshman last year was not included in the ECSU women's preseason write-up.  She is currently a star on the volleyball team and played both sports last year.  She may be looking to say with volleyball this year.

 Saw Anna play AAU ball 3 summers ago and thought that she'd be a factor for ECSU.

Offline cantdothat

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Re: Little East
« Reply #1180 on: November 11, 2019, 04:15:55 pm »
Maine Maritime Academy Women's Tournament 11/9 & 11/10 at The Pit Orono, Maine

Sunday results

Wheaton (2-0) 64
Thomas (0-2) 48

UMass Boston (2-0) 64
Maine Maritime (0-2) 51

Beacon's Jalani Jackson 32 points

Offline ECSUalum

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Re: Little East
« Reply #1181 on: November 11, 2019, 09:50:50 pm »
Preseason poll:

https://www.gowarriorathletics.com/sports/mbkb/2019-20/releases/lec_hoop_polls

No shock Eastern is the class.  Western is the only school I've currently looked at that actually has the updated roster for 2019-20; they've got a bunch of freshmen & sophomores.  They'll compete as they always do under coach Kim, but not sure they have staying power.  Preseason #1 selection Eastern doesn't have a roster updated, and I'm not sure how many players left from last years team, but I know of one incoming freshmen, Jaclyn Santella, from RHAM, will be a player for them.  I believe they still have PG Julie Keckler who played very well as a freshmen, and of course the last year for Mya Villard.  When I see rosters for all 9 teams I'll make a prediction which will probably turn out horribly, like most of them do.

Anna Berry who was a  top freshman last year was not included in the ECSU women's preseason write-up.  She is currently a star on the volleyball team and played both sports last year.  She may be looking to say with volleyball this year.

 Saw Anna play AAU ball 3 summers ago and thought that she'd be a factor for ECSU.

ECSU 2019-20 roster is out and Anna Barry  is on the roster.

Offline amh63

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Re: Little East
« Reply #1182 on: November 13, 2019, 03:47:52 pm »
ECSU....glad your dual sport player has returned to play basketball.  Amherst has a player from Ct. that plays volleyball and basketball...both very well.  Now a senior, at 62, she is a returning starter in the front court were her experience and skills provide stability to the younger front court players.
Good luck this season.  Have not checked the WBB schedule yet to see if our teams will meet during the season.  See the regular season MBB schedule does not have our teams meeting.

Offline ECSUalum

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Re: Little East
« Reply #1183 on: November 13, 2019, 06:33:56 pm »
ECSU....glad your dual sport player has returned to play basketball.  Amherst has a player from Ct. that plays volleyball and basketball...both very well.  Now a senior, at 62, she is a returning starter in the front court were her experience and skills provide stability to the younger front court players.
Good luck this season.  Have not checked the WBB schedule yet to see if our teams will meet during the season.  See the regular season MBB schedule does not have our teams meeting.

amh63
Saturday Dec 7 in Willi!  Good Luck to the men and women Mammoths! (still strange to use the new name lol :D )!

Offline SidelineHero

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Re: Little East
« Reply #1184 on: November 16, 2019, 10:54:29 am »
Preseason poll:

https://www.gowarriorathletics.com/sports/mbkb/2019-20/releases/lec_hoop_polls

No shock Eastern is the class.  Western is the only school I've currently looked at that actually has the updated roster for 2019-20; they've got a bunch of freshmen & sophomores.  They'll compete as they always do under coach Kim, but not sure they have staying power.  Preseason #1 selection Eastern doesn't have a roster updated, and I'm not sure how many players left from last years team, but I know of one incoming freshmen, Jaclyn Santella, from RHAM, will be a player for them.  I believe they still have PG Julie Keckler who played very well as a freshmen, and of course the last year for Mya Villard.  When I see rosters for all 9 teams I'll make a prediction which will probably turn out horribly, like most of them do.

Everyone is sleeping on UMassD.....again.  Yes, they lost Nakira Eximond but they will have the "Player of the Year" again in Ashley Brown.  UMD's back court will be the best in the LEC and possibly in the Northeast (Yes, I know it is a bold statement). Take a look at UMD vs. MIT stat sheet.  Jordan Moretti did all her damage in 3 quarters before going out with a sprained ankle.  At that time Ashley Brown stepped up and took over game.  They combined for 48 points and won against a potential top 10 in the region.  UMD has 5 6 footers on the team (all of whom can shoot from outside and play inside).  They have a short bench but every player is capable of starting.  Don't forget they have a multiple "Coach of the Year" award winner in Ducharme.  Being ranked fourth in the preseason LEC pole just goes to show you that nobody does their homework when they submit their rankings, not that they mean anything.  Let the season play out and we will see.