Author Topic: BB: Pool C  (Read 42030 times)

Offline CrashDavisD3

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BB: Pool C
« on: April 10, 2014, 01:03:26 pm »
POOL B/C Selection

Pool A-40, Pool B-2, Pool C-14

Primary Criteria
The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests leading up to NCAA championships); all criteria listed will
be evaluated (not listed in priority order).
● Win-loss percentage against Division III opponents.
● Division III head-to-head competition
● Results versus common Division III opponents
● Results versus ranked Division III opponents as established by
the rankings at the time of selection.
● Division III strength of schedule
● Win-loss percentage last 25% of the season (if applicable)

Contests versus provisional and reclassifying members in their
third and fourth years shall count in the primary criteria.
Provisional and reclassifying members shall remain ineligible f
or rankings and selection.

Weighted Scale
 Once the OWP and OOWP are calculated, they are to be combined on a weighted scale (e.g., 2/3 weight
for OWP and 1/3 weight for OOWP) and this combined number becomes the strength of schedule.

Secondary Criteria

If the evaluation of the primary criteria does not result in a decision, the secondary criteria will be reviewed. All the criteria
listed will be evaluated (not listed in priority order). The secondary criteria introduce results against out-of-region Division III
and all other opponents including those contests versus opponents from other classifications (i.e., provisionals, NAIA, NCAA
Divisions I and II).

● Non-Division III win-loss percentage.
● Results versus common non-Division III opponents
● Non-Division III Strength of Schedule
This... is a simple game. You throw the ball. You hit the ball. You catch the ball.  "There are three types of baseball players: those who make things happen, those who watch it happen, and those who wonder what happened."
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Offline CrashDavisD3

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #1 on: April 14, 2014, 02:45:11 pm »
This... is a simple game. You throw the ball. You hit the ball. You catch the ball.  "There are three types of baseball players: those who make things happen, those who watch it happen, and those who wonder what happened."
Crash Davis Bio - http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/crash0908.html

Spence

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #2 on: April 15, 2014, 01:42:18 pm »
Oh, a slight factor :)

As I posted on another thread, the worst record for a Pool C team is 25-18 for Bowdoin in 2012. Obviously, they had an outstanding strength of schedule. I also personally think that any team with .800+ winning percentage is in the conversation regardless of SOS.

The game-is-a-game concept really shows in its accounting for playing tough teams in the southern schedule that may not necessarily have been in-region before.

Just going down the SOS list and eyeballing winning percentages (NOT in order of primacy), it looks like the list of teams competing for Pool C berths might be...

Marietta
Heidelberg
Stevens Point
John Carroll
St. Thomas
Southern Maine
Amherst
Rowan
Case Western (likely Pool B though)
Moravian
Rutgers-Camden
Baldwin-Wallace
Cortland State
Concordia Ill
Ramapo
Emory (could be Pool B)
Shenandoah
ECSU
UW-Whitewater
Birmingham Southern (Pool B candidate)
Linfield (likely won't need it)
Webster
York
Buena Vista
Gettysburg
Tufts
Trinity
St. John Fisher (Pool B possibility)

On a second pass down the list, the fringe might be something like...
Millsaps, UW-Oshkosh, Hendrix, Alvernia, Allegheny, Oswego State, Wheaton, Berry, Endicott, Adrian, Rhodes, Kean (surprised not higher, but SOS not good this year), Salisbury, Frostburg State, Ohio Northern (only because they have pretty much all the OAC heavies coming up), Ithaca.
« Last Edit: April 15, 2014, 08:41:01 pm by Spence »

Offline D3SportsFan

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #3 on: April 16, 2014, 12:18:35 pm »
Great breakdown! It's fun to start looking ahead at potential bids!

Offline BigPoppa

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #4 on: April 16, 2014, 01:45:05 pm »
Great breakdown! It's fun to start looking ahead at potential bids!

of course none of this matter once a few teams not on this list steal Pool A bids and bump the bottom of the Pool C teams out.
Baseball is not a game that builds character, it is a game that reveals it.

Spence

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #5 on: April 16, 2014, 02:51:19 pm »
Yeah, it's more of a watch list. Teams will play their way off or up it before the Pool A berths start going out. I wouldn't say it doesn't matter, though. It gave me a little better idea of who is truly in contention, and a baseline for discussion of other teams that someone might think should be added.

Spence

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #6 on: April 16, 2014, 04:36:43 pm »
FYI for the site admins, the links off the strength of schedule page are going to 2013 schedule/results. Tried several, all did the same.

Offline Pat Coleman

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #7 on: April 16, 2014, 05:36:39 pm »
Got it fixed -- thanks for the heads-up.
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Offline CrashDavisD3

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #8 on: April 16, 2014, 05:53:46 pm »
Would be nice to have the Win-Loss percentage againt DIII opponents somewhere to be found?

Primary Criteria
The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests leading up to NCAA championships); all criteria listed will
be evaluated (not listed in priority order).
Win-loss percentage against Division III opponents.
● Division III head-to-head competition
● Results versus common Division III opponents
● Results versus ranked Division III opponents as established by
the rankings at the time of selection.
● Division III strength of schedule
● Win-loss percentage last 25% of the season (if applicable)
This... is a simple game. You throw the ball. You hit the ball. You catch the ball.  "There are three types of baseball players: those who make things happen, those who watch it happen, and those who wonder what happened."
Crash Davis Bio - http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/minors/crash0908.html

Spence

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #9 on: April 16, 2014, 07:17:39 pm »
That's what's on the strength of schedule page now, I believe. No in-region/out-of-region foolishness anymore.

What I don't get is the "if applicable" about the last 25% of the season. What, do some teams just not bother completing the schedule?

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #10 on: April 16, 2014, 08:41:30 pm »
Thanks, Spence. 

Oh, a slight factor :)

As I posted on another thread, the worst record for a Pool C team is 25-18 for Bowdoin in 2012. Obviously, they had an outstanding strength of schedule. I also personally think that any team with .800+ winning percentage is in the conversation regardless of SOS.

The game-is-a-game concept really shows in its accounting for playing tough teams in the southern schedule that may not necessarily have been in-region before.

Just going down the SOS list and eyeballing winning percentages (NOT in order of primacy), it looks like the list of teams competing for Pool C berths might be...

Mideast:              Marietta, Heidelberg, John Carroll, Case Western (likely Pool B though), Baldwin-Wallace
Midwest:              Stevens Point, St. Thomas, Concordia Ill, UW-Whitewater
New England:       Southern Maine, Amherst, ECSU, Tufts
Mid-Atlantic:          Rowan, Moravian, Rutgers-Camden, Ramapo, Gettysburg
New York:            Cortland State, St. John Fisher (Pool B possibility)
South :                Emory (could be Pool B), Shenandoah, Birmingham Southern (Pool B candidate), York PA
West:                   Linfield (likely won't need it), Trinity TX
Central:               Webster, Buena Vista






On a second pass down the list, the fringe might be something like...
Millsaps, UW-Oshkosh, Hendrix, Alvernia, Allegheny, Oswego State, Wheaton, Berry, Endicott, Adrian, Rhodes, Kean (surprised not higher, but SOS not good this year), Salisbury, Frostburg State, Ohio Northern (only because they have pretty much all the OAC heavies coming up), Ithaca.

Offline Pat Coleman

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #11 on: April 16, 2014, 10:38:05 pm »
That's what's on the strength of schedule page now, I believe. No in-region/out-of-region foolishness anymore.

What I don't get is the "if applicable" about the last 25% of the season. What, do some teams just not bother completing the schedule?

The last 25% thing is meant to measure if a team is on the upswing or tailing off. Not sure how often it's used or if a committee would ever be honest about it if they did.
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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #12 on: April 16, 2014, 10:39:26 pm »
And you as well...that's a much more user-friendly look :)

Ithaca and Berry lost today. Shenandoah split but I don't think that hurts them that much.

Looks like the most likely multi-bid leagues (before upsets) are the OAC, LEC, NESCAC, and NJAC.

Offline Whatagame

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #13 on: April 17, 2014, 06:58:00 pm »
Thanks, Spence. 

Oh, a slight factor :)

As I posted on another thread, the worst record for a Pool C team is 25-18 for Bowdoin in 2012. Obviously, they had an outstanding strength of schedule. I also personally think that any team with .800+ winning percentage is in the conversation regardless of SOS.

The game-is-a-game concept really shows in its accounting for playing tough teams in the southern schedule that may not necessarily have been in-region before.

Just going down the SOS list and eyeballing winning percentages (NOT in order of primacy), it looks like the list of teams competing for Pool C berths might be...

Mideast:              Marietta, Heidelberg, John Carroll, Case Western (likely Pool B though), Baldwin-Wallace
Midwest:              Stevens Point, St. Thomas, Concordia Ill, UW-Whitewater
New England:       Southern Maine, Amherst, ECSU, Tufts
Mid-Atlantic:          Rowan, Moravian, Rutgers-Camden, Ramapo, Gettysburg
New York:            Cortland State, St. John Fisher (Pool B possibility)
South :                Emory (could be Pool B), Shenandoah, Birmingham Southern (Pool B candidate), York PA
West:                   Linfield (likely won't need it), Trinity TX
Central:               Webster, Buena Vista






On a second pass down the list, the fringe might be something like...
Millsaps, UW-Oshkosh, Hendrix, Alvernia, Allegheny, Oswego State, Wheaton, Berry, Endicott, Adrian, Rhodes, Kean (surprised not higher, but SOS not good this year), Salisbury, Frostburg State, Ohio Northern (only because they have pretty much all the OAC heavies coming up), Ithaca.
[/quote



Spence's breakdown, and his note about Bowdoin gives me doubt about some West team's candidacy for a pool C now.  Willamette winning out and going 27-11 (23-8 against D3) now really looks on the fringe given this context, despite the fact that I think they'd be extremely competitive in the regional.  George Fox is now done I believe, having dropped 2/3 to Pac Lu, save for a miracle finish in their five games against Fox.  Maybe the only Pool C might come from SCIAC if Chapman/Cal Lu each virtually win-out to the SCIAC tournament final.  If not, I am starting to believe a repeat of 2012, with two out-of-region teams (hopefully very competitive ones) flown in. 

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: BB: Pool C
« Reply #14 on: April 17, 2014, 11:29:12 pm »
And you as well...that's a much more user-friendly look :)

Ithaca and Berry lost today. Shenandoah split but I don't think that hurts them that much.

Looks like the most likely multi-bid leagues (before upsets) are the OAC, LEC, NESCAC, and NJAC.
It does remind us how they may line up when they are on the table on Selection Day.