Author Topic: 2015 Bracketology  (Read 18976 times)

Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #15 on: February 25, 2015, 05:34:20 pm »
Posted. Went with the other bracket setup possibility this week so as to put a visual to it. Next week we will have to start locking down on which we truly believe to be the best option. Should be fun considering that as of now I have no idea which I prefer. In both cases regional seeds of 1,1,2,3 to straight to qfs. Question is which region the 2 & 3 come from.

You will be amused by the way the seeds fell re Platty's fate :)
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Offline spwood

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #16 on: February 25, 2015, 05:45:06 pm »
You will be amused by the way the seeds fell re Platty's fate :)

Amused what the term that popped into my head!  I really would rather not play Norwich again.  I did my own bracket real quick, but I went with the one first round game in the west.  I can think of a couple reasons they would chose your option this week.  One, I think Stevens Point would be rated ahead of Oswego, and therefore deserves the first round bye.  Second, they could get two western teams into the Frozen Four (I know it's still three flights, but it's still 2 western teams).  My only other difference from you is that I ranked Plymouth State ahead of Nichols based mostly on SOS.

Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #17 on: February 25, 2015, 06:40:11 pm »
Point also would be ahead of Amherst so #2 and #3 overall seeds are in West in my estimation. Also, as Nichols was actually ranked last week it's probably a safe bet to think it'll stay ahead of Plymouth.

On my phone here, but will back later this evening...
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Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #18 on: February 27, 2015, 12:26:49 am »
I guess I don't understand why Oswego has to play a first round game instead of Hobart in your scenario.  I think you do more to damage bracket integrity when E2 plays in the first round and E3 gets a bye than setting up E2 v. W1 in the QF and make Hobart play in that first round.

Oh, I remembered the answer. Part of it, at least. The issue there is that Wego would have a road QF as opposed to a home one. Granted it gets stuck in an opening rounder but they are a full week ahead of the QF this year which makes it a bit less taxing than in the past. So which is more equitable? Play the MASCAC champ at home one weekend and host a QF against a relatively low seed the next, or take a week off, hit the road as a #2 regional seed and face the top seed from another region? It's a tough call, but I actually find the first option preferable. How the committee would view such a thing...no idea.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2015, 12:33:24 am by Matthew Webb »
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Offline Bartman

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #19 on: March 01, 2015, 01:31:34 pm »
Crazy weekend. Looking forward to the next bracket analysis.
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Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #20 on: March 02, 2015, 12:13:52 pm »
Thanks for the "Selections Explained" shoutout, Steve. 'Tis a pity no one ever seems to pay attention to it...
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Offline spwood

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #21 on: March 03, 2015, 03:30:57 pm »
The spreadsheets for the Regional rankings are posted, but no rankings yet.  A quick look and Oswego, Trinity, and Amherst seem to be very close.  I think Amherst compares pretty well with Trinity, a little less so with Oswego.  The Oswego/Trinity comparison looks very close as well.

Edit:  Now the rankings are out.  #1 and #2 flipped, but that wouldn't seem to change much.  Did UMass Boston dropping below Hobart change things?  Hobart slides in for UMass Boston?
« Last Edit: March 03, 2015, 05:10:34 pm by spwood »

Offline joecct

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #22 on: March 03, 2015, 05:28:23 pm »
Well it looks like Trinity can punch their ticket.  That's one Pool C down. 
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Offline PeterLangella

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #23 on: March 03, 2015, 08:29:32 pm »
If everyone wins, I think it's all east: Trinity, Oswego, Hobart. If SNC wins, I think Oswego will stay home: Adrian, Trinity, Hobart.

Offline joecct

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #24 on: March 03, 2015, 08:46:39 pm »
You'd bump out Oswego and not Hobart?
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Offline PeterLangella

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #25 on: March 03, 2015, 09:00:36 pm »
You'd bump out Oswego and not Hobart?

I'm not sure what I'd do. My predictions are based on what I think the committee will/would do.

Offline spwood

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #26 on: March 04, 2015, 08:07:58 am »
You'd bump out Oswego and not Hobart?

I wouldn't.  Oswego wins WIN and RNK while Hobart wins SOS and L25.  The tiebreaker for me (other than the fact that Oswego is currently ranked ahead of Hobart) is the H2H win Oswego owns over Hobart.  I'm taking Oswego in that comparison...and it pains me to say that!

Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #27 on: March 05, 2015, 12:13:25 am »
If everyone wins, I think it's all east: Trinity, Oswego, Hobart. If SNC wins, I think Oswego will stay home: Adrian, Trinity, Hobart.

Agreed re the first point. Both per my own opinion and what I expect the committee would do. St. Norbert does not have a particularly strong resume at all and if is highest ranked West team in Pool C it's going nowhere. I like Eau Claire's much better. That SOS is monstrous and we've seen that play very well in the past. I'd have UWEC ahead of SNC in West rankings and would have since week one.  SNC must be riding the H2H there. Wish I knew how much H2H was valued on a case-by-case basis. Seems to be all over the map...

See: UWSP v UST last season. St. Thomas hosting that QF made no sense whatsoever.

Tough call between Oswego and Hobart. It'll be whichever is higher in the regional rankings, but if Hobart wins and Wego loses this week, who that will be is anyone's guess...
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Offline joecct

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #28 on: March 08, 2015, 12:55:26 pm »
Has Amherst clinched #1 East regardless of today's NESCAC final?

Here's a best guess estimate
East
1.  Amherst  (Pool A/C)
2.  Trinity  (C)
3.  Hobart  (C)
4.  Norwich  (A)
5.  Plattsburgh  (A)
6.  Oswego / Williams (C / A)
7.  Nichols  (A)
8.  Plymouth St.  (A)

West
1.  Adrian  (Pool A)
2.  Stevens Point (B)
3.  Hamline (A)

Caveat - there are quite a few postings wondering if the NESCAC gets 3 bids if Williams wins today.  Lots are saying no way.  Can it happen that a #1 or #2 rank gets dropped sufficiently to preclude selection?  Both Amherst & Trinity have, as of this moment, SoS's > .500, though I believe Hobart trumps them both with Oswego close to Trinity.
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Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #29 on: March 08, 2015, 08:56:31 pm »
spwood - correct take over at that "other" place. I can see why snc was ahead prior (h2h) but at this point it really makes no sense not to pop eau claire to 3.

That said, as far as what the cmte does, any combination of trin, wego, sp/hob, snc, uwec getting pool c wouldn't exactly knock my socks off in surprise.
"It is hard to free fools from the chains they revere" - Voltaire