Author Topic: 2015 Bracketology  (Read 13272 times)

Offline spwood

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2015 Bracketology
« on: February 19, 2015, 12:14:56 pm »
Matt,

Care to take a crack at this one too?  I'd be interested to read!

Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #1 on: February 19, 2015, 01:01:50 pm »
Matt,

Care to take a crack at this one too?  I'd be interested to read!

I do, but...it'll be Ray doing it instead this year. As most know by now I had to step away from a role of official responsibility with the site this season (and likely next) and for the same reasons I had to do that I'm just not able to tackle the women as well this year. Simply a matter of available time.

I always liked doing the women's, though. Maybe more than the men. For one it was always easier to have our analysis match the actual outcome but at the same time there have been some deliciously close comparisons in recent years. Should be interesting to see what Ray kicks up this week.

Interesting scenario would be 5-3 E/W split with the West Region teams being Adrian, River Falls and Gustavus. By straight seed Gusties go to Elmira most likely but Adrian and Falls are >500 miles apart. I'd assume it'd then be Adrian v. someone in the East (it would have to be), but then which team considering Adrian isn't an obvious bottom seed like Concordia and St. Norbert were. That scenario presents some interesting theoreticals.
"It is hard to free fools from the chains they revere" - Voltaire

Offline spwood

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #2 on: February 19, 2015, 01:08:16 pm »
Would the committee want to avoid flights bad enough to make Elmira play Adrian in the first round?

Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #3 on: February 19, 2015, 01:46:15 pm »
Would the committee want to avoid flights bad enough to make Elmira play Adrian in the first round?

I chose Elmira thinking the West team would be a lower seed than any of the East teams, but come to think of it...Elmira v Adrian would yield a flight-free QF round. Hmph.
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Offline spwood

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #4 on: February 21, 2015, 08:28:01 am »
Good first Bracketology.  Much cleaner than the men's analysis tends to be.  Can't wait for this afternoon's Plattsburgh / Middlebury game.

Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #5 on: February 21, 2015, 12:43:13 pm »
Good first Bracketology.  Much cleaner than the men's analysis tends to be.  Can't wait for this afternoon's Plattsburgh / Middlebury game.

Yes, the women's has a way of always working itself out pretty nicely. I suspect that might not be the case were it an 11 team field with a B and three C's :)

The men's tends to be pretty simple at its heart, but we like to try to explain the why behind our decision since...based on discussions going on elsewhere...people seem to choose to just make things up and/or ignore simple realities of the process.

Anyway, who are you (objectively!) picking in this afternoon's game? Pretty big one as it's quite possible they're playing for a home NCAA QF.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2015, 12:50:28 pm by Matthew Webb »
"It is hard to free fools from the chains they revere" - Voltaire

Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #6 on: February 21, 2015, 12:47:11 pm »
Oh, and the direct link: Women's Bracketology, Take 1
"It is hard to free fools from the chains they revere" - Voltaire

Offline spwood

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #7 on: February 21, 2015, 02:15:47 pm »

Anyway, who are you (objectively!) picking in this afternoon's game? Pretty big one as it's quite possible they're playing for a home NCAA QF.

This is a huge game for both teams.  They both need to be ahead of the other for possible Pool C considerations later (neither is a shoo-in to win their Pool A).  It just doesn't feel that Plattsburgh's goaltending is as good as prior years nor is their offense as good as prior years.  Middlebury's got the goaltending that wins championships.  My head tells me Middlebury in a 2-1, 3-2 game.  My heart (which is surprisingly not very objective) has Plattsburgh winning 3-1 (EN).

Offline spwood

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #8 on: February 21, 2015, 06:15:02 pm »
Great win for the Cardinals.  I would think that should keep the Cardinals ahead of the Panthers up to the NCAA tournament.  4-3 was a higher scoring game than I expected.

Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #9 on: February 21, 2015, 11:26:25 pm »
Great win for the Cardinals.  I would think that should keep the Cardinals ahead of the Panthers up to the NCAA tournament.  4-3 was a higher scoring game than I expected.

I suspect we will see Plattsburgh at 2W this week which should, barring some sort of calamity, up until selection Sunday. Should Midd win the NESCAC and Platty not win the ECACW...then...tough call.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2015, 10:49:34 am by Matthew Webb »
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Offline spwood

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #10 on: February 22, 2015, 08:09:02 am »

I suspect we will see Plattsburgh at 2W this week which should, barring some sort of calamity, up until selection Sunday. Should Midd win the NESCAC and Platty not win the SUNYAC...then...tough call.

In that case, both teams would have the same record and hopefully head to head would mean something.

Offline spwood

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #11 on: February 23, 2015, 03:10:37 pm »
If Oswego drops out of the last ranked spot, Plattsburgh loses two wins against a ranked team.  It doesn't look like that will hurt their resume too much.

Offline Icing

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #12 on: February 23, 2015, 05:07:29 pm »
If Oswego drops out? I hope it's a given as they don't deserve to be there in the first place and shouldn't hurt Platty at all. Not giving Adrian the NCHA as LF and SNC could make some noise. Regardless, Adrian will get a Pool C spot if they don't win. Norwich not as dominant as in past years and although they will win their division, may get upset in the final 8. Elmira looks like the team to beat!

Offline spwood

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #13 on: February 24, 2015, 03:52:25 pm »
Well, the women's rankings are out and while I wouldn't have thought about it, Trinity jumps straight up to #5 in the east.  That made sense when looking at the numbers, as Trinity beats Amherst in every criteria except WIN%.

East:
Code: [Select]
1. Elmira
2. Plattsburgh State
3. Middlebury
4. Norwich
5. Trinity
6. Amherst

West:
Code: [Select]
1. Adrian
2. Wisc-River Falls
3. Gustavus Adolphus
4. Wisc-Stevens Point
5. St. Norbert
6. Lake Forest

Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #14 on: February 27, 2015, 01:31:33 pm »
Women's....is posted.
"It is hard to free fools from the chains they revere" - Voltaire