Author Topic: 2015 Bracketology  (Read 12908 times)

Offline spwood

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #15 on: February 27, 2015, 02:08:51 pm »
Wow!!!  W1 @ E1.  That should start some discussion on the "eastern bias" discussion!!!  I actually thought looking at the numbers that UWSP's slight advantage in Win% and SOS would give it the nod.  That would have made for a more traditional bracket with Adrian v. UWSP in the first round and Norwich @ Elmira.  I like the thought of Plattsburgh seeing Trinity in the first round instead of playing Middlebury again, but the ladies will play whomever you put in front of them!  Of course, a lot will change between this week and next Sunday.

Great read though!

Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #16 on: February 27, 2015, 04:27:03 pm »
Wow!!!  W1 @ E1.  That should start some discussion on the "eastern bias" discussion!!!  I actually thought looking at the numbers that UWSP's slight advantage in Win% and SOS would give it the nod.  That would have made for a more traditional bracket with Adrian v. UWSP in the first round and Norwich @ Elmira.  I like the thought of Plattsburgh seeing Trinity in the first round instead of playing Middlebury again, but the ladies will play whomever you put in front of them!  Of course, a lot will change between this week and next Sunday.

Great read though!

I think the committee would give that comparison to Point, but going with Trinity illustrates that potential Adrian issue. If it's 5-3 and Adrian is in that's the only option...per the rules at least.
"It is hard to free fools from the chains they revere" - Voltaire

Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #17 on: March 01, 2015, 02:11:35 am »
Gustavus heading to the Pool C pot might be a death knell for UWSP as well as Amherst should it not win NESCAC...
"It is hard to free fools from the chains they revere" - Voltaire

Offline spwood

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #18 on: March 01, 2015, 08:43:53 am »
And the 4/4 split (w/o UWSP) means someone's flying somewhere in the first round!  W4 (presumably the MIAC champ) is flying to Adrian, right?

Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #19 on: March 02, 2015, 12:35:58 am »
And the 4/4 split (w/o UWSP) means someone's flying somewhere in the first round!  W4 (presumably the MIAC champ) is flying to Adrian, right?

If the West is Adrian, Gustavus, MIAC, UWRF....correct, someone has to fly. Which would amuse me most highly. Of West teams anywhere near the discussion only UWSP and SNC are within driving range of Adrian.
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Offline spwood

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #20 on: March 02, 2015, 08:29:43 am »
Gustavus heading to the Pool C pot might be a death knell for UWSP as well as Amherst should it not win NESCAC...

How close are the numbers between Stevens Point and Gustavus?  Is it possible for Stevens Point to jump the Gusties in the final week, especially if they could win the WIAC?

I guess I'm thinking that Gustavus stays #3 in the west on Tuesday, but could still drop to #4 on Sunday? 

Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #21 on: March 02, 2015, 11:59:13 am »
How close are the numbers between Stevens Point and Gustavus?  Is it possible for Stevens Point to jump the Gusties in the final week, especially if they could win the WIAC?

I guess I'm thinking that Gustavus stays #3 in the west on Tuesday, but could still drop to #4 on Sunday?

Point wins SOS (.545 v .525, roughly) and L25 and loses the rest, including H2H. Not sure about COP but GA is 3-0 against LFC, UWS, UWRF and Point is a 6-5-1 against those three. I suspect GA wins COP as well.
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Offline spwood

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #22 on: March 02, 2015, 02:08:08 pm »
Point wins SOS (.545 v .525, roughly) and L25 and loses the rest, including H2H. Not sure about COP but GA is 3-0 against LFC, UWS, UWRF and Point is a 6-5-1 against those three. I suspect GA wins COP as well.

With the way some Committees are in love with the L25 metric and have always loved SOS, doesn't this give them an out to move UWSP ahead of the Gusties?

Offline PeterLangella

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #23 on: March 02, 2015, 05:58:31 pm »
With the way some Committees are in love with the L25 metric and have always loved SOS, doesn't this give them an out to move UWSP ahead of the Gusties?

If UWRF holds serve in the WIAC, the committee could just as easily keep both GA and SP out of the mix altogether for a 5-3 split.

Offline spwood

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #24 on: March 03, 2015, 03:29:17 pm »
The spreadsheets with the raw numbers is posted (with yesterday's date), but no rankings yet...

Now we have rankings, but not much change!  Bethel slides in at #6.  GAC lost over the weekend.  So now it appears the question is how does Gustavus Adolphus compare to Trinity for the last Pool C?  It looks like they only beat Trinity on WIN%.  I would think the last Pool C would go to Trinity, making the dreaded 5/3 split.  Makes me think Gustavus Adolphus have played their last game of the season...
« Last Edit: March 03, 2015, 05:15:06 pm by spwood »

Offline FSU96

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #25 on: March 05, 2015, 08:13:11 pm »
All right. I'm going to ask it.

Just how safe is Adrian at this point in time? I get the impression that the answer is "not very".

Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #26 on: March 05, 2015, 09:05:58 pm »
All right. I'm going to ask it.

Just how safe is Adrian at this point in time? I get the impression that the answer is "not very".

Ray is hammering out the Bracketology now so that'll provide a more detailed look. A quick look at the numbers tells me that if Adrian hits Pool C and runs into a problem it's going to be due to SOS. It gets smashed pretty well by the dangerous teams that could fall into Pool C and cause a problem, and we already know that UWRF and Elmira or Platty are already headed to Pool C.

For the sake of exposing the NCAAs clownish travel regulations, I want to see a 5-3 with Adrian, UWRF and MIAC are the three. As Ray talked about last week, by the book Adrian would HAVE to go to Elmira unless Oswego popped a conference title or something.


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Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #27 on: March 05, 2015, 09:12:45 pm »
And none of that really answered your question.

How about this: A relatively quick perusal of the numbers tells me Adrian is probably safe with a loss so long as Midd and Norwich win out. If Adrian loses and rest of faves win I think the Pool Cs go ECACW, Adrian, UWRF, in that order, unless UWRF wins and hops AC in the final rankings. Then the ability to buffer upsets goes to zero. I could be wrong of course, but that's my best guess with a cursory look.
"It is hard to free fools from the chains they revere" - Voltaire

Offline FSU96

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #28 on: March 05, 2015, 09:29:30 pm »
That more or less got me there. That's about what I figured, although I am less optimistic about our Pool C chances, even sitting there with 2 losses, if it comes to that.

I did not see a mention of Stevens Point in those two posts. Are they likely dead, outside of a WIAC win and some help?

One more question, and then I'll get out of the way. Is Elmira set in stone as #1 in the East? If Plattsburgh gets past them this weekend for the Pool A, can they jump to #1 in the East? I haven't looked at the numbers.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2015, 09:32:12 pm by FSU96 »

Offline spwood

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Re: 2015 Bracketology
« Reply #29 on: March 06, 2015, 10:52:44 am »
One more question, and then I'll get out of the way. Is Elmira set in stone as #1 in the East? If Plattsburgh gets past them this weekend for the Pool A, can they jump to #1 in the East? I haven't looked at the numbers.

Quickly looking at the numbers, I would say Emira would have a slight edge in WIN%, Plattsburgh would have the (very) slight SOS advantage, Elmira would win results vs. ranked opponents (5-2-2 to 4-2-2), and Plattsburgh would win L25 (7-0 to 6-1).  Would the ECAC West title factor in?  It's not supposed to.  By the numbers it looks pretty much like a coin toss (head to head would be 2-2 as well!)  All of their losses would be to each other!  Seeding wouldn't likely matter though, in a 5-3 split (which is looking likely), Adrian would play @ Elmira in the first round either way.

Adrian's best bet to avoid that scenario is probably to lose the NCHA final.  And I wouldn't recommend doing that!