Author Topic: 2015 National Tournament  (Read 7145 times)

Offline Purplegatorade

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2015 National Tournament
« on: November 11, 2015, 10:11:07 am »
The field is set.  Thoughts on this years tournament.

http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/soccer-women/d3

Offline 2xfaux

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Re: 2015 National Tournament
« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2015, 11:53:05 am »
To my decidedly untrained eye it appears that the CMU side of the bracket is the easiest.  I could imagine a CMU v Thomas More Quarter Final.  The Wash U group seems a bit tougher but with Wash U already having handled both Wheaton and Ill. Wes. I see them reaching the Final Four.  The Messiah and William Smith groups are more complicated
maybe just because I have seen more of those teams play.  I would not be surprised to see William Smith, Williams or Hopkins survive.  On the Messiah side, my goodness, Messiah, Lynchburg, Trinity, Swat, Ithaca etc.  I have no idea.  I will be pulling for Messiah but if they get knocked out early count me as all in for U.C. Santa Cruz.   

Offline TxFlyer88

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Re: 2015 National Tournament
« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2015, 12:47:29 pm »
Disappointed that both Messiah(1/2) and Trinity(2/1) were put in the same quarter bracket. Two great teams that should have both had a shot at getting to the final four.

Offline 2xfaux

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Re: 2015 National Tournament
« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2015, 04:23:51 pm »
Disappointed that both Messiah(1/2) and Trinity(2/1) were put in the same quarter bracket. Two great teams that should have both had a shot at getting to the final four.

I agree.  I think they have met twice before in the tournament and both games went to PKs.

Offline Purplegatorade

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Re: 2015 National Tournament
« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2015, 05:00:39 pm »
What "#1" would you replace Trinity with?

Offline Mr.Peanut17

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Re: 2015 National Tournament
« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2015, 01:13:41 pm »
Odd that two UAA schools, Wash U and Carnegie Mellon, each got a #1 seeding, even if both are deserving.  I would move Trinity (TX) to the Wash U bracket, but that messes with geography.  Perhaps swap the Trinity (TX) quartet of teams with the Illinois Wesleyan quartet of teams?  Regardless, there is some significant travel required in the LEFT half of the bracket, less so in the RIGHT half.

Offline TxFlyer88

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Re: 2015 National Tournament
« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2015, 01:16:09 pm »
Wouldn't  even have to necessarily replace a "number 1". The four teams selected as 1 seeds are all strong. But even if you don't give Trinity a 1 seed, I don't think they should have been the lowest 2 seed. If Messiah is number 1, they should have had the easiest number 2 seed (8th). Looking at the four top seeds, CMU seems to be the lowest in the seeding and should have had to play the highest 2 (Trinity). Looks to me like CMU had the lowest seed and got the easiest path to the final four.

Offline Purplegatorade

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Re: 2015 National Tournament
« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2015, 01:36:40 pm »
I am not sure if any of you read the D3 Women's Soccer thread on the Bigsoccer.com Forums, but a contributor by the name of CoachJon put together an interesting analysis of the bracket placement.  Here is what CoachJon came up with.

DIII Bracket Analysis

I calculated: Rank Index Points (RIP) = (NSCAA Rank + Massey Rank + Bennett Rank) divided by 3.

I used the RIP to indicate the relative strength of teams and brackets. I graded each bracket by summing the RIPs for the top five teams in each bracket, regardless of how they were seeded within the bracket. (20 out of the 64 teams)

On the table, ** indicates a team that is not playing the first and second round games on their home field.

Disclaimer: These are imaginary numbers and no true meaning can be extracted from them.

a. The right side brackets appear to be slightly stronger than the left side brackets. The overall distribution is much more even than in 2014, when the values were 43, 51,53, and 88

b. Unlike 2014, when the two strongest teams were in the same bracket, the first four strongest teams are distributed among the four brackets.

c.. Ithaca, Puget Sound, Wheaton, and Brandeis donít have home games, but have better RIPs than teams in their bracket that do have home games.


UPPER LEFT------------68------------------UPPER RIGHT--------63
Messiah----------------------1-----------------Carnegie Mellon------------4
Trinity, TX------------------7------------------Centre----------------------10
Swarthmore-----------------8-----------------Thomas More--------------14
Ithaca**---------------------24----------------Chicago**-------------------17
Rowan----------------------28-----------------McDaniel**----------------18

LOWER LEFT-------------73--------------LOWER RIGHT--------62
WashU**---------------------4----------------William Smith---------------3
Illinois Wesleyan------------8----------------Williams---------------------7
Puget Sound**--------------12----------------Stevens Tech---------------12
Wheaton**------------------23-----------------Brandeis**----------------15
Denison----------------------26----------------Amherst--------------------25
 
 

Offline Mr.Peanut17

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Re: 2015 National Tournament
« Reply #8 on: November 13, 2015, 10:59:46 am »
Decent analysis, PurpleGate.  But as with all numbers, you can play with them and get slightly different results.  For example, if we drop the 5th team from each bracket in your analysis, we get the following "scores" (lower score = "stronger" bracket?)... Upper Left - 40, Lower Left - 47, Upper Right - 45, Lower Right - 37.  Slightly different, although Lower Right still looks to be a "tough" bracket.  Moving Trinity (TX) to the Lower Left might help balance the "scores" a bit.  But the bottom line is this:  There are many intangibles, and you still gotta play the games.  Good luck to all teams involved, and congratulations on fine seasons.

Offline Purplegatorade

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Re: 2015 National Tournament
« Reply #9 on: November 13, 2015, 01:26:36 pm »
Not my analysis.  It was done by someone on the Bigsoccer.com D3 Women's Soccer Boards.  I just brought it up to bring a different prospective to the table.  That's all.

Decent analysis, PurpleGate.  But as with all numbers, you can play with them and get slightly different results.  For example, if we drop the 5th team from each bracket in your analysis, we get the following "scores" (lower score = "stronger" bracket?)... Upper Left - 40, Lower Left - 47, Upper Right - 45, Lower Right - 37.  Slightly different, although Lower Right still looks to be a "tough" bracket.  Moving Trinity (TX) to the Lower Left might help balance the "scores" a bit.  But the bottom line is this:  There are many intangibles, and you still gotta play the games.  Good luck to all teams involved, and congratulations on fine seasons.

Offline TxFlyer88

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Re: 2015 National Tournament
« Reply #10 on: November 13, 2015, 01:47:47 pm »
Totally agree Mr.Peanut. To win it all you have to beat the rest whether you play them in the first round or the final. It's going to be a fun and exciting tournament. Good luck and safe travels to everyone. Hope to see you in Kansas City.


Offline Ron Boerger

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Re: 2015 National Tournament
« Reply #11 on: November 14, 2015, 12:41:04 am »
Trinity (TX) controlled play after the half but could not get the ball in the net, having to go to PKs to get past UT-Tyler 1-1 (4-3).   Coach Lance Key was not happy that two highly-rated teams had to face off in the first round to save the NCAA's travel budget, and I applaud him for putting into words what so many of us supporting teams of all types on the TX/West Coast islands feel whenever playoff time rolls around and things like this happen:

"I just think it's a travesty to have two of the top 10 teams in the country playing each other in the first round," concluded Coach Key. "You have one of the top 10 teams in the country going out in the first round on penalties.  I know there are parameters and guidelines that have to be followed, but as a collegiate sport, I think something has to be done to ensure that these types of things don't happen again. Any coach across the country would think it's terrible...that team shouldn't be out this soon."

game story including this quote:  http://trinitytigers.com/sports/wsoc/2015-16/releases/151113_wsoc_utt_ncaa


Offline 2xfaux

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Re: 2015 National Tournament
« Reply #12 on: November 14, 2015, 10:49:07 am »
The Trinity v UTT first round match-up is almost inexplicable.  Good for Coach Key for speaking his mind.

Offline DiggityDog

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Re: 2015 National Tournament
« Reply #13 on: November 16, 2015, 02:15:41 pm »
Heading into the Sweet 16, I thought I would analyze the relative strength of the remaining teams.  Since Massey and BennettRank have their weaknesses, I thought the best comparison would be to look at the number of victories each team had this season (before the tournament) against teams selected to the tournament.  Presumably, the more victories against teams that either won their conference or were at-large selections, the stronger the team.  I recognize that there are flaws to this analysis, but it's just for fun, right?

Ill. Wesleyan - 7
Carnegie Mellon - 5
Wisconsin-Whitewater - 5
Washington-St. Louis - 4
Messiah - 4
Brandeis - 4
Williams - 3
Thomas More - 3
Rowan - 2
Swarthmore - 2
Calvin - 2
Centre - 2
Stevens - 2
Hardin-Simmons - 1
Wartburg - 1
William Smith - 1

For those of you that thought Trinity (Texas) was unfairly paired with Texas (Tyler) in the first round, just note that Texas (Tyler) had only 1 victory against a tournament team and Trinity (Texas) had only 2.  Trinity's loss to Hardin-Simmons, who also only had 1 victory against a tournament team, makes for a compelling argument that the NCAA got it right.  I don't necessarily agree with this, but just stating what the numbers suggest.  Wash. U fans may have a better argument than Trinity since they had to face a 4-victory Denison team in the second round, despite being a #1 seed.  On the flip side, William Smith fans should be elated that they received a #1 seed and hosting rights, despite only having won 1 game all season against a tournament team. Go figure!

Online Mr. Ypsi

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Re: 2015 National Tournament
« Reply #14 on: November 17, 2015, 06:40:56 pm »
Heading into the Sweet 16, I thought I would analyze the relative strength of the remaining teams.  Since Massey and BennettRank have their weaknesses, I thought the best comparison would be to look at the number of victories each team had this season (before the tournament) against teams selected to the tournament.  Presumably, the more victories against teams that either won their conference or were at-large selections, the stronger the team.  I recognize that there are flaws to this analysis, but it's just for fun, right?

Ill. Wesleyan - 7
Carnegie Mellon - 5
Wisconsin-Whitewater - 5
Washington-St. Louis - 4
Messiah - 4
Brandeis - 4
Williams - 3
Thomas More - 3
Rowan - 2
Swarthmore - 2
Calvin - 2
Centre - 2
Stevens - 2
Hardin-Simmons - 1
Wartburg - 1
William Smith - 1

For those of you that thought Trinity (Texas) was unfairly paired with Texas (Tyler) in the first round, just note that Texas (Tyler) had only 1 victory against a tournament team and Trinity (Texas) had only 2.  Trinity's loss to Hardin-Simmons, who also only had 1 victory against a tournament team, makes for a compelling argument that the NCAA got it right.  I don't necessarily agree with this, but just stating what the numbers suggest.  Wash. U fans may have a better argument than Trinity since they had to face a 4-victory Denison team in the second round, despite being a #1 seed.  On the flip side, William Smith fans should be elated that they received a #1 seed and hosting rights, despite only having won 1 game all season against a tournament team. Go figure!

As an IWU fan, I think your ranking technique is impeccable! ;D