Author Topic: 2016 Bracketology  (Read 11558 times)

Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2016 Bracketology
« Reply #30 on: March 06, 2016, 11:02:56 pm »
I've been following this process for a long time now and I still don't understand what is significant for SOS.  .538 is significant over .525?  I'm not saying I think Plattsburgh is getting in, I'm just looking for more information on what is significant in each of the criteria...

Open to interpretation. In reality that's not a very big gap, but it's the biggest difference of anything there and big enough to have made a difference historically. From my perspective I used "significant" in the sense that something has to separate the teams there and that's the most notable difference present.
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Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2016 Bracketology
« Reply #31 on: March 06, 2016, 11:17:13 pm »
The turn of events in the East rankings were bad news for Plattsburgh. It's pretty clear that Williams is going to go before Platty, and from there it's nearly impossible to figure out how Platty would get in over Point. And that's assuming Point doesn't get in right after St. Norbert, but even if it does Platty is stuck back against Williams, and it's clear how the committee views that one.

Amazing how important one loss in which a team outshoots someone 46-10 or whatever it was can end up being so crucial...
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Offline elbojpb

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Re: 2016 Bracketology
« Reply #32 on: March 07, 2016, 10:57:04 am »
If indeed SOS was the tipping point between PSU and Williams ... Interestingly and coincidentally, Plattsburgh made a conscious decision a few years back to schedule much closer to home, which excluded some of the ECAC/W (Elmira) teams.


Conversely, the NESCAC has done exactly the opposite, and scheduled Home and Home series with the highest SOS league teams (ECAC/W), whereas a few years back, (and until Trinity got hosed) the NESCAC as a whole didn't have much to do with teams from outside their geographic area. (There are some interesting "elitist" threads on USCHO about this topic)


Emery may want to re-think his scheduling strategy.


P.S. Webb - I  hope I speak for the few of us that still follow D3 ... we really appreciate your time, effort and expertise.

Offline spwood

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Re: 2016 Bracketology
« Reply #33 on: March 07, 2016, 11:44:02 am »
If indeed SOS was the tipping point between PSU and Williams ... Interestingly and coincidentally, Plattsburgh made a conscious decision a few years back to schedule much closer to home, which excluded some of the ECAC/W (Elmira) teams.

Conversely, the NESCAC has done exactly the opposite, and scheduled Home and Home series with the highest SOS league teams (ECAC/W), whereas a few years back, (and until Trinity got hosed) the NESCAC as a whole didn't have much to do with teams from outside their geographic area. (There are some interesting "elitist" threads on USCHO about this topic)

Emery may want to re-think his scheduling strategy.

Some of this was forced on Plattsburgh with the addition of Morrisville and Canton to the schedule.  Also, the thought (and hope) was that Middlebury and Norwich (and probably up and coming Castleton as well) were strong enough opponents that SOS would still be strong.  Also, the travel restriction was probably not his doing alone... don't you think that nudge came from upstairs?

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P.S. Webb - I  hope I speak for the few of us that still follow D3 ... we really appreciate your time, effort and expertise.

Without a doubt.... just wish you weren't so damn accurate this year!

Offline elbojpb

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Re: 2016 Bracketology
« Reply #34 on: March 07, 2016, 01:37:01 pm »
If indeed SOS was the tipping point between PSU and Williams ... Interestingly and coincidentally, Plattsburgh made a conscious decision a few years back to schedule much closer to home, which excluded some of the ECAC/W (Elmira) teams.

Conversely, the NESCAC has done exactly the opposite, and scheduled Home and Home series with the highest SOS league teams (ECAC/W), whereas a few years back, (and until Trinity got hosed) the NESCAC as a whole didn't have much to do with teams from outside their geographic area. (There are some interesting "elitist" threads on USCHO about this topic)

Emery may want to re-think his scheduling strategy.

Some of this was forced on Plattsburgh with the addition of Morrisville and Canton to the schedule.  Also, the thought (and hope) was that Middlebury and Norwich (and probably up and coming Castleton as well) were strong enough opponents that SOS would still be strong.  Also, the travel restriction was probably not his doing alone... don't you think that nudge came from upstairs?

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P.S. Webb - I  hope I speak for the few of us that still follow D3 ... we really appreciate your time, effort and expertise.

Without a doubt.... just wish you weren't so damn accurate this year!
Undoubtedly the scheduling constraints were "encouraged" from administration, but we all know that where there's a will, there's a way. And I've got to believe Emery has as much credibility with his administration as any coach in the SUNYAC ... i.e. we're talking only a few hundred extra dollars per trip.

Offline spwood

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Re: 2016 Bracketology
« Reply #35 on: March 07, 2016, 02:09:30 pm »
Undoubtedly the scheduling constraints were "encouraged" from administration, but we all know that where there's a will, there's a way. And I've got to believe Emery has as much credibility with his administration as any coach in the SUNYAC ... i.e. we're talking only a few hundred extra dollars per trip.

It's more than a few hundred dollars because none of their out of conference trips are overnight (except the Middlebury/Williams weekend every other year).  I think if Emery really had his choice, he'd play a Babson or a Hobart.  It seems any fundraising the team does is for charitable purposes so I'm not sure raising funds by the team itself is an option either.

As I contradict myself, the baseball and softball teams make long trips to Florida or South Carolina each year so who knows. 

Offline Bartman

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Re: 2016 Bracketology
« Reply #36 on: March 07, 2016, 09:01:07 pm »
Hobart with a first place vote in the poll this week(must be the first time, ever ,for the program) .Hope that doesn't jinx the Statesman.  Looks like the likely path to the Championship will be last years Champs, #2 and #1…hopefully the one voter that gave them a #1 is right. Looks like some great match ups in the tourney.
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Offline llama

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Re: 2016 Bracketology
« Reply #37 on: March 08, 2016, 02:23:55 pm »
Nobody seems to be talking about this, but it sure looked like the NCAA "released" the March 6 rankings.  On Sunday night, if you went to the NCAA page that shows the rankings and clicked on the links for the East and West data sheets, the rankings for March 6 were right there.  Monday morning, there was then a data sheet for the East region that indicated it was "updated" on March 7 at 6am....althought I couldn't identify anything different from the March 6 data.  Given that this year the last few data tables they released only showed data for the ranked teams (in order of ranking)....these tables sure seemed to outline who was ranked where - which took most of the suspense out of the selection show.

I don't ever recall them releasing the final data? I can't be the only one who saw this, right?

Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2016 Bracketology
« Reply #38 on: March 08, 2016, 04:13:17 pm »
Nobody seems to be talking about this, but it sure looked like the NCAA "released" the March 6 rankings.  On Sunday night, if you went to the NCAA page that shows the rankings and clicked on the links for the East and West data sheets, the rankings for March 6 were right there.  Monday morning, there was then a data sheet for the East region that indicated it was "updated" on March 7 at 6am....althought I couldn't identify anything different from the March 6 data.  Given that this year the last few data tables they released only showed data for the ranked teams (in order of ranking)....these tables sure seemed to outline who was ranked where - which took most of the suspense out of the selection show.

I don't ever recall them releasing the final data? I can't be the only one who saw this, right?

I had those sheets last Thursday and thought I was onto a major score. And then that happened. I can't prove it but I'd wager quite a bit that someone posted those by mistake. It was only the East one, too, though you could back out the West one from the East url.
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Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2016 Bracketology
« Reply #39 on: March 08, 2016, 04:17:45 pm »
Hobart with a first place vote in the poll this week(must be the first time, ever ,for the program) .Hope that doesn't jinx the Statesman.  Looks like the likely path to the Championship will be last years Champs, #2 and #1…hopefully the one voter that gave them a #1 is right. Looks like some great match ups in the tourney.

Hobart also had one first vote in our January 25 and February 1 polls. Can't recall if it has gotten any votes in recent years. I'm going to be really excited to see whoever it is that comes out of that Hobart trio in Placid, but if it is indeed Hobart that semi will be way up there on my all-time most anticipated list (if SNC wins). Absolutely loved the way Hobart played there in '09. It was the best team there that weekend, by so much that I voted it #1 in final poll. They lost that semi but were still the best team. Granted my ballot was tossed out, I think, but I stand by that vote.
« Last Edit: March 08, 2016, 04:25:19 pm by Matthew Webb »
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Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2016 Bracketology
« Reply #40 on: March 08, 2016, 04:22:52 pm »
P.S. Webb - I  hope I speak for the few of us that still follow D3 ... we really appreciate your time, effort and expertise.

Thanks to you and the handful of others who have expressed similar sentiments over the past week. I'm just glad someone is reading this stuff. These days it's really fun again and I'll keep doing it until it is no longer. On my end it really helps that I'm not the head guy anymore as I'd have ended up dying from lack of sleep or something but that means I'm all fresh and ready to go come late February these days, which sure beats what happened in 2013 when I had a headache for the final six weeks of the season. Ray deserves an enormous amount of credit for the work he puts in, too. He's probably the only guy in the country who could have taken it over and done as well as he has. Now if we could just get him to post here...
"It is hard to free fools from the chains they revere" - Voltaire

Offline llama

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Re: 2016 Bracketology
« Reply #41 on: March 08, 2016, 04:48:39 pm »
Nobody seems to be talking about this, but it sure looked like the NCAA "released" the March 6 rankings.  On Sunday night, if you went to the NCAA page that shows the rankings and clicked on the links for the East and West data sheets, the rankings for March 6 were right there.  Monday morning, there was then a data sheet for the East region that indicated it was "updated" on March 7 at 6am....althought I couldn't identify anything different from the March 6 data.  Given that this year the last few data tables they released only showed data for the ranked teams (in order of ranking)....these tables sure seemed to outline who was ranked where - which took most of the suspense out of the selection show.

I don't ever recall them releasing the final data? I can't be the only one who saw this, right?

I had those sheets last Thursday and thought I was onto a major score. And then that happened. I can't prove it but I'd wager quite a bit that someone posted those by mistake. It was only the East one, too, though you could back out the West one from the East url.
I figured that didn't get by you!  ;D  I'm betting you're right and the sheets weren't supposed to have been posted.

Offline Matthew Webb

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Re: 2016 Bracketology
« Reply #42 on: March 08, 2016, 05:05:22 pm »
I figured that didn't get by you!  ;D  I'm betting you're right and the sheets weren't supposed to have been posted.

I was disappointed they got out there. The projected final rankings we came up with after Trinity won ended up being perfect. Would have looked like geniuses popping Geneseo to 2E and then been right about it!
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Offline llama

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Re: 2016 Bracketology
« Reply #43 on: March 08, 2016, 05:12:57 pm »
Hobart with a first place vote in the poll this week(must be the first time, ever ,for the program) .Hope that doesn't jinx the Statesman.  Looks like the likely path to the Championship will be last years Champs, #2 and #1…hopefully the one voter that gave them a #1 is right. Looks like some great match ups in the tourney.

Hobart also had one first vote in our January 25 and February 1 polls. Can't recall if it has gotten any votes in recent years. I'm going to be really excited to see whoever it is that comes out of that Hobart trio in Placid, but if it is indeed Hobart that semi will be way up there on my all-time most anticipated list (if SNC wins). Absolutely loved the way Hobart played there in '09. It was the best team there that weekend, by so much that I voted it #1 in final poll. They lost that semi but were still the best team. Granted my ballot was tossed out, I think, but I stand by that vote.

I watched that '09 Hobart team play several times that year - including their QF win against Amherst. I'm biased as a Hobart hockey alumn - but I agree they coulda/shoulda/woulda won it that year. That MacKinnon kid from Neumann was an absolute wall in that tourney.

I think the last (and only?) time Hobart and SNC squared off was in the 2006 semi...which SNC won in OT.  I'd love to see Hobart get back to the final four but first things first - getting past Trinity or UMB will not be easy.

Offline PSUChamps2001

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Re: 2016 Bracketology
« Reply #44 on: March 08, 2016, 05:15:52 pm »
It's been a fun year watching games at the Cooler for sure. Hobart is legit. Anyone who comes in thinking not will be walking away with their tails tucked between their legs. They've simply made other teams look silly at times (Geneseo, Brockport, Utica).  I know there is a group of us coming to Lake Placid if Hobart makes it.
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I don't know if you saw the post on the "other" site Matt, but Dunning and I got talking about Norwich and their 17-8-2 record is envious of some programs. But then I brought up the fact that Norwich was 14-8-1 in the NCAA's eyes (thank you DII teams), which got me thinking. Would a .667 win% help how much more then the .630? But then I went one step more, how many of Plattsburgh opponents had their win% lowered due to playing DII teams and how much of a difference? Results? Enough and A LOT. It was only the KRACH SOS, but comparing the DIII and DII/DIII KRACH Plattsburgh gained 28.1 points. The average difference of the teams was just 7.57...that's almost 4 times the average. UWSP only went up 5.7 points. I don't have the date formula for the NCAA SOS (which is kind of bogus to begin with), but such a big difference makes me wonder if the NCAA SOS would have been different had they added the DII teams. Food for thought. Enough to overtake Williams, no. But UWSP? Hmm