I clued Ray in on the discussion here, but will offer up my own thoughts anyway. When I read these two posts the first thing I thought was, "isn't this almost exactly how it happened last year?"
So I took a look. Here's the Pool C grid from last year's Selection Sunday:

And here is this week's:

The Pool C bids went to Elmira, Middlebury and UW-River Falls last year, and the whole thing looks quite similar to what we see at the moment, imo. Those SOS advantages are flat out enormous and have shown to be the difference in the past, and I don't think we're going to see a comparison swing on a H2H from opening weekend. I think it's inconceivable a team with a .8400+ WIN against the highest SOS in nation is not going to get in here.
What really kills Adrian here is that the Pool B is back. If it weren't then Adrian takes down River Falls for the third C, but as of now I'd be pretty confident the committee takes Elmira and Amherst out of that group.
Just my opinion there, but the good news for everyone is that the Adrian-Lake Forest series this weekend, aside from being a great series, is going to change things significantly in one direction or another so come Saturday night this projection will be moot.
Edit: Quite frankly, the best thing that could happen for the NCHA is to have either AC or LFC sweep this weekend and then have the other (or neither) win the AQ. Would be best chance to get two bids, I suspect.