2016 Bracketology

[spwood]

The first Bracketology is posted for the 2016 tournament!  That sound you hear is Adrian's fans exploding over in Michigan!

My only question, though, is it that cut and dry for Elmira over Adrian for the first Pool C?  Adrian wins WIN and RNK.  I know Elmira wins SOS, but shouldn't Adrian's head-to-head win count for something here too?  I think Adrian would be my first Pool C, with Elmira clearly taking the second Pool C and Amherst being on the outside looking in....

Thoughts?

[FSU96]

I also agree with this, especially with the difference between the RNK records (5-2 vs 3-3-1 in favor of Adrian). I know that there is a huge SOS advantage there, but that is going to close somewhat this weekend with the Adrian-LFC series on tap, plus one more potential meeting between these two. Adrian will also have played the #1 and #2 teams in the East, and the #1 and #3 teams in the West, as well as #6W St. Norbert, but who knows how well their ranking will hold up.

As it stands now, that win over Elmira was not Adrian's only signature win this year.

[Matthew Webb]

I clued Ray in on the discussion here, but will offer up my own thoughts anyway. When I read these two posts the first thing I thought was, "isn't this almost exactly how it happened last year?"

So I took a look. Here's the Pool C grid from last year's Selection Sunday:



And here is this week's:



The Pool C bids went to Elmira, Middlebury and UW-River Falls last year, and the whole thing looks quite similar to what we see at the moment, imo. Those SOS advantages are flat out enormous and have shown to be the difference in the past, and I don't think we're going to see a comparison swing on a H2H from opening weekend. I think it's inconceivable a team with a .8400+ WIN against the highest SOS in nation is not going to get in here.

What really kills Adrian here is that the Pool B is back. If it weren't then Adrian takes down River Falls for the third C, but as of now I'd be pretty confident the committee takes Elmira and Amherst out of that group.

Just my opinion there, but the good news for everyone is that the Adrian-Lake Forest series this weekend, aside from being a great series, is going to change things significantly in one direction or another so come Saturday night this projection will be moot.

Edit: Quite frankly, the best thing that could happen for the NCHA is to have either AC or LFC sweep this weekend and then have the other (or neither) win the AQ. Would be best chance to get two bids, I suspect.

[spwood]

I'm not saying your wrong.  You know the process better than I do, but if one team can win three out of four criteria (including H2H)), then why don't we just say SOS is king and everything else is secondary criteria?  I also don't agree with discounting the H2H meeting just because it was early in the year.

I'm just saying if I'm in the room looking at those numbers, I would pick Adrian and then Elmira.  All of this discussion is fun, but we'll know a lot more after the Lake Forest/Adrian games this weekend...

[FSU96]

I'd like to know just how much this Adrian-LFC series moves the needle on the SOS portion of things before we go much further.

And especially with Amherst playing a 4-16-2 Wesleyan team this weekend, too.

[spwood]

I'd like to know just how much this Adrian-LFC series moves the needle on the SOS portion of things before we go much further.

And especially with Amherst playing a 4-16-2 Wesleyan team this weekend, too.

Oh, I completely understand that the discussion Sunday is completely different than the discussion Thursday, but I was having fun with the numbers as we had them Thursday.  If Adrian wins again today, this conversation was really for fun.

[FSU96]

Adrian sweeps Lake Forest in a pair of 2-1 games. Assuming (dangerously) that St. Norbert remains ranked, that puts Adrian at 7-2 against ranked teams. SOS calculations or otherwise, playing 36% of your schedule against ranked opponents, and winning nearly 80% of those, is pretty damn impressive, regardless of who it is.

[spwood]

My thoughts on the brackets after the 2nd NCAA rankings.

NESCAC loser @ Plattsburgh
Norwich @ Adrian
NESCAC winner @ Elmira
St. Thomas @ River Falls

Possibly switch the NESCAC loser and Norwich.  This is if bracket integrity means anything.  Having #2 v. #3 play a QF game (which would seem to be the only way to avoid flights) isn't a great scenario.  This isn't perfect either, but I like it better than Adrian and Elmira playing in the first round.

[Matthew Webb]

My thoughts on the brackets after the 2nd NCAA rankings.

NESCAC loser @ Plattsburgh
Norwich @ Adrian
NESCAC winner @ Elmira
St. Thomas @ River Falls

Possibly switch the NESCAC loser and Norwich.  This is if bracket integrity means anything.  Having #2 v. #3 play a QF game (which would seem to be the only way to avoid flights) isn't a great scenario.  This isn't perfect either, but I like it better than Adrian and Elmira playing in the first round.

Adrian would have to play Elmira. By the book there's no way around it. And...the game would be in Adrian as it is higher regional seed. Very similar to what we saw with the men in 2011 when Adrian was 2W and Elmira 3E and for some reason everyone was all shocked Adrian hosted.

[Matthew Webb]

[spwood]

I would say that really sucks is too bad for Elmira and Adrian (but especially for Elmira)...  I was afraid that was the case...

[FSU96]

Okay, I just noticed something. In the Bracketology articles, one of the primary criteria listed is:

Division III strength of schedule (SOS)*
            - Consisting of Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP) and

            - Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage (OOWP)

* Strength of Schedule (SOS) is determined by a composite figure consisting of 2/3 OWP and 1/3 OOWP
^ The Women's Regional Rankings will include six teams in each region

But when I read the NCAA spreadsheet, they list "In-Division SOS (Weighted OWP-OOWP)"

My question is this: Are we using SOS from just each respective region, or across Division III competition? Or is the NCAA spreadsheet mis-labeled? Am I asking this for nothing?

[Matthew Webb]

Okay, I just noticed something. In the Bracketology articles, one of the primary criteria listed is:

Division III strength of schedule (SOS)*
            - Consisting of Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP) and

            - Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage (OOWP)

* Strength of Schedule (SOS) is determined by a composite figure consisting of 2/3 OWP and 1/3 OOWP
^ The Women's Regional Rankings will include six teams in each region

But when I read the NCAA spreadsheet, they list "In-Division SOS (Weighted OWP-OOWP)"

My question is this: Are we using SOS from just each respective region, or across Division III competition? Or is the NCAA spreadsheet mis-labeled? Am I asking this for nothing?

No, you're reading it right and it's a good question.. The NCAA has indeed made it confounding and it has done so by having its definition of in-region competition include all teams in DIII. But it hasn't updated this language elsewhere. So in some places you'll still see "region" and in others you'll see "division" used to say the same thing. The lack of consistency isn't exactly surprising.

But anyway, long story short, all games against DIII teams count toward SOS across all DIII sports.

[FSU96]

Okay, here's what I'm getting at: are Adrian's games against Elmira, Plattsburgh (I spelled it right this time, Remy) and Stevenson baked in to the SOS that is listed on the spreadsheet?

[Matthew Webb]

Okay, here's what I'm getting at: are Adrian's games against Elmira, Plattsburgh (I spelled it right this time, Remy) and Stevenson baked in to the SOS that is listed on the spreadsheet?

Yes, all games against DIII teams count for SOS (and "in-division record") regardless of where the schools are located.