Author Topic: Pool C in 2016  (Read 26396 times)

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2016, 06:38:50 pm »
Sorry to let my daytime job interfere with good D3 talk (LOL), but is UW River Falls (Administrative region #4) versus Southwestern TX (administrative region #4) an in-region game?  (I have not perused the Manual in several years.  It might impact the deep numbers inside Pool C.)

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2016, 07:20:21 pm »
Sorry to let my daytime job interfere with good D3 talk (LOL), but is UW River Falls (Administrative region #4) versus Southwestern TX (administrative region #4) an in-region game?  (I have not perused the Manual in several years.  It might impact the deep numbers inside Pool C.)

It's hard to not be in-region anymore.  I think as long as everybody is playing 2/3 or 3/4 of their games in-region, then they all count as in-region.  And if Wisconsin and Texas are in the same administrative region, then yeah. 
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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2016, 08:55:42 pm »
Bluffton also gave Trine their only loss so far. Would be a big help if Trine ran the table and won the MIAA.

Lots of ifs left in the North region, but I'm super intrigued by what's coming down the line. 
- Wabash can win out and get to 9-1.  They'll have a crummy SOS (thanks Albion), but they'll almost certainly have one RRO win on that profile, perhaps two.  Same for Witt.  Same for Denison.  Same for DePauw. 
- How would the North RAC treat 8-2 NCAC teams?  Especially if Bluffton gets to 9-1.  Or Trine.  Or Olivet.  Carthage is out there that could be 9-1 or 8-2.  Would they beat out an 8-2 NCAC team in the regional rankings?  Or could an 8-2 NCAC team with a RRO win stay ranked ahead of those 1-loss HCAC/MIAA teams?  These are really, really important choices. 

Intrigue abounds in the last month of the season in the North. 
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Online wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #18 on: October 17, 2016, 11:50:45 pm »
I probably won't keep repeating this part of the post, but I'll do it again this week as people trickle in to the at-large conversation this week.  Here's the idea behind these eliminator tables:
- Basically all of these teams can still technically win their league and qualify through Pool A.  That's not what this is.  This is an at-large eliminator.  What I've tried to do here is identify teams that are out of consideration for Pools B and C. 
- My methodology here has tried to err on the side of inclusion, even if the odds for some of these teams putting together a Pool B/C profile are already very slim.  So you'll see some teams down here in green and say "come on...they aren't making it in".  You're probably right.  But we'll eliminate those teams as it happens. 

Updated through Week 7 games:





Eliminated teams in the red cells, teams still clinging to at-large hope in the green cells.  Newly eliminated teams this week with white text and also repeated below with commentary on the teams that I eliminated prior to having collected a third loss:

Elmhurst
Rose-Hulman - RHIT has to play Franklin and Bluffton.  They'll either win those games and win the HCAC or lose one and have a third loss. 
Alma - Same as RHIT, substitute Trine and Olivet as their remaining key games.
Capital
Gustavus Adolphus
Puget Sound
Chapman
Minnesota-Morris
Louisiana College
Catholic
Rhodes
Ferrum
LaGrange
Ithaca
RPI
Mass-Maritime - Bucs have games left with Bridgewater State and Framingham State.  Wins there probably wins the league, any loss will end their at-large prospects.
Curry
Montclair State
Kean

And yes, there are a lot of teams left alive from the UMAC and the MWC, and there's only very, very, very slight chances that even a single loss runner up from those leagues can crack the top 10 in the deep West region, but those leagues are going to sort themselves out in the next couple of weeks and we can be better informed on whether any runners up from those leagues might have any shot at all when we see some regional rankings.   Same sort of deal with the survivors from the ECFC and MASCAC, but the East can still beat itself up enough that two loss runners up might get ranked.  So we'll let that play out a little longer also. 
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Offline smedindy

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2016, 01:10:46 am »
This may be a year where the first rankings posted are trial balloons, and the second rankings are reflections of how the other regions ranked their teams in order to get the best possible "C" contenders to the table at the right time. So we could see a 2-loss team jump a 1-loss team strategically (or vice versa).

Not that it happens that way, but it SEEMS that it happened that way a couple of times.

Here's something, though. Would the West rank a 4th WIAC team? I think the MIAC will have everyone with three losses except the Johnnies and Tommies. The IIAC may cannibalize itself. The NWC probably would rank two. So maybe they rank a 7-3 Stevens Point or LaCrosse and that way get Platteville or Oshkosh another RR win that boosts their potential 2-loss candidacy? I could see the West RRs with 4 WIAC, 2 MIAC, 2 NWC, 1 IIAC and 1 SCIAC.

The East's committee is going to be fun to watch - how they untangle the E8, NJAC and MAC from each other. A strategic ranking of a strong 2-loss team could make a big difference.

Offline smedindy

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2016, 01:19:55 am »
Also, it seems there are a lot of teams with one loss just hanging around. Besides Bluffton, which could go 9-1, and Denison, which has a puncher's chance to win the dang NCAC for reals, a lot of teams in the PAC and SAA have none or one loss.

Of all the years to have TMC and CWRU not play each other.

Offline Mr. Ypsi

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #21 on: October 18, 2016, 01:25:21 am »
This may be a year where the first rankings posted are trial balloons, and the second rankings are reflections of how the other regions ranked their teams in order to get the best possible "C" contenders to the table at the right time. So we could see a 2-loss team jump a 1-loss team strategically (or vice versa).

Not that it happens that way, but it SEEMS that it happened that way a couple of times.

Here's something, though. Would the West rank a 4th WIAC team? I think the MIAC will have everyone with three losses except the Johnnies and Tommies. The IIAC may cannibalize itself. The NWC probably would rank two. So maybe they rank a 7-3 Stevens Point or LaCrosse and that way get Platteville or Oshkosh another RR win that boosts their potential 2-loss candidacy? I could see the West RRs with 4 WIAC, 2 MIAC, 2 NWC, 1 IIAC and 1 SCIAC.

The East's committee is going to be fun to watch - how they untangle the E8, NJAC and MAC from each other. A strategic ranking of a strong 2-loss team could make a big difference.

I'm curious who you envision from the SCIAC as a regionally-ranked team.  IMO, the IIAC alone has four teams (Coe, Dubuque, Central, and Wartburg) that could whup anyone from D3 SoCal.  The SCIAC will, of course, have an AQ, but I can't really see them with an RR.

Offline AUKaz00

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #22 on: October 18, 2016, 10:17:36 am »
This may be a year where the first rankings posted are trial balloons, and the second rankings are reflections of how the other regions ranked their teams in order to get the best possible "C" contenders to the table at the right time. So we could see a 2-loss team jump a 1-loss team strategically (or vice versa).

Not that it happens that way, but it SEEMS that it happened that way a couple of times.

Here's something, though. Would the West rank a 4th WIAC team? I think the MIAC will have everyone with three losses except the Johnnies and Tommies. The IIAC may cannibalize itself. The NWC probably would rank two. So maybe they rank a 7-3 Stevens Point or LaCrosse and that way get Platteville or Oshkosh another RR win that boosts their potential 2-loss candidacy? I could see the West RRs with 4 WIAC, 2 MIAC, 2 NWC, 1 IIAC and 1 SCIAC.

The East's committee is going to be fun to watch - how they untangle the E8, NJAC and MAC from each other. A strategic ranking of a strong 2-loss team could make a big difference.

Does "once ranked, always ranked" still exist?  If so, then a committee could really go down the game theory rabbit hole by swapping out 4 or 5 teams at the bottom of their rankings from first to second ranking, thus generating more RRO for any potential Pool C contender.  In the East, for instance, the committee could leave off all the Northeast teams and pack the bottom of the rankings with teams from the East and Mid-Atlantic, swap them out for others in the second set, then bring in the New England conference champs for the final rankings.
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Online wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #23 on: October 18, 2016, 10:20:46 am »
Here's something, though. Would the West rank a 4th WIAC team? I think the MIAC will have everyone with three losses except the Johnnies and Tommies. The IIAC may cannibalize itself. The NWC probably would rank two. So maybe they rank a 7-3 Stevens Point or LaCrosse and that way get Platteville or Oshkosh another RR win that boosts their potential 2-loss candidacy? I could see the West RRs with 4 WIAC, 2 MIAC, 2 NWC, 1 IIAC and 1 SCIAC.

I say doubtful.  This is the West region that last year kept Whitworth ranked ahead of Platteville for no real discernible reason other than Whitworth lost one time (badly, to Linfield) and Platteville lost twice (not at all badly to Whitewater and then badly to Oshkosh).  Unless a lot of really weird stuff happens in the West region, I really can't see the fourth place team from the WIAC being in the top 10 rankings. 

I think the West rankings will eventually be made up of:
UWW
UWO
UWP
Linfield
STT
STJ
Coe
Dubuque or Wartburg
Monmouth
And then one of the following: an undefeated SCIAC champion (Redlands/PP), Whitworth

Would you rank a three-loss, fourth place WIAC team ahead of single loss SCIAC or even two loss Whitworth (and we know this committee loves them some NWC)?   I think that's a tough sell when that team is so severely disadvantaged by the win percentage criteria.  I'd have to dive into SOS figures to see how that helps/hurts, although SOS didn't matter much in the Whitworth/UWP situation last year. 
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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2016, 10:22:20 am »
This may be a year where the first rankings posted are trial balloons, and the second rankings are reflections of how the other regions ranked their teams in order to get the best possible "C" contenders to the table at the right time. So we could see a 2-loss team jump a 1-loss team strategically (or vice versa).

Not that it happens that way, but it SEEMS that it happened that way a couple of times.

Here's something, though. Would the West rank a 4th WIAC team? I think the MIAC will have everyone with three losses except the Johnnies and Tommies. The IIAC may cannibalize itself. The NWC probably would rank two. So maybe they rank a 7-3 Stevens Point or LaCrosse and that way get Platteville or Oshkosh another RR win that boosts their potential 2-loss candidacy? I could see the West RRs with 4 WIAC, 2 MIAC, 2 NWC, 1 IIAC and 1 SCIAC.

The East's committee is going to be fun to watch - how they untangle the E8, NJAC and MAC from each other. A strategic ranking of a strong 2-loss team could make a big difference.

Does "once ranked, always ranked" still exist?  If so, then a committee could really go down the game theory rabbit hole by swapping out 4 or 5 teams at the bottom of their rankings from first to second ranking, thus generating more RRO for any potential Pool C contender.  In the East, for instance, the committee could leave off all the Northeast teams and pack the bottom of the rankings with teams from the East and Mid-Atlantic, swap them out for others in the second set, then bring in the New England conference champs for the final rankings.

No, once ranked, always ranked isn't a thing.  Only the final rankings (not published, of course) are used for selection. 
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Offline ITH radio

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #25 on: October 18, 2016, 01:17:56 pm »
WW (aka GT) - When do you expect the NCAA regional rankings to come out? 11/2 (ish)? I am thinking it's before Wk 10 with another rd bf Wk 11 then the "final" / unseen ones run after the games on 11/12.
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Online wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #26 on: October 18, 2016, 01:24:57 pm »
WW (aka GT) - When do you expect the NCAA regional rankings to come out? 11/2 (ish)? I am thinking it's before Wk 10 with another rd bf Wk 11 then the "final" / unseen ones run after the games on 11/12.

Yeah, that's my expectation.  We'll get just two sets of published rankings before the final Saturday. 
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Online ADL70

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #27 on: October 22, 2016, 10:16:09 pm »
PAC Commish was interviewed during the CWRU-Geneva broadcast and said that coaches voted before the season and the first breaker is "W/L % of PAC teams you beat."  All you have to look at is the team you didn't play. If CWRU and TMC win out, and W&J has better record than Geneva, then TMC gets AQ,  if Geneva, then CWRU gets AQ.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2016, 11:49:16 pm by ADL70 »
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Online wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #28 on: October 22, 2016, 10:49:20 pm »
PAC Commish was interviewed during the CWRU-Geneva broadcast and said that coaches voted before the season and the first breaker is "W/L % of teams you beat."  Assuming he meant conf w/l, all you have to look at is the team you didn't play. If CWRU and TMC win out, and W&J has better record than Geneva, then TMC gets AQ,  if Geneva, then CWRU gets AQ.

Weird.  So they'll break the tie using non-common opponents.  Bizarro.  In any case, we can look at the current standings and the remaining schedules of WJ and Geneva and see how that book is going to end. 
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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #29 on: October 23, 2016, 08:38:10 am »
I think you need to add Rose-Hulman back into the Pool C list for now. No team in the HCAC controls their own destiny right now which is really strange (but that will be sorted out this weekend). So if Rose beats Bluffton and MSJ beats Franklin, then Rose would still be in pool C with MSJ as pool A.
If Bluffton/Franklin win then Franklin is A and Bluffton C... if Franklin/Rose win then Rose is A and Franklin C... and if MSJ/Bluffton win Bluffton is A.
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