Author Topic: Pool C in 2016  (Read 26397 times)

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #30 on: October 23, 2016, 10:07:49 am »
I think you need to add Rose-Hulman back into the Pool C list for now. No team in the HCAC controls their own destiny right now which is really strange (but that will be sorted out this weekend). So if Rose beats Bluffton and MSJ beats Franklin, then Rose would still be in pool C with MSJ as pool A.
If Bluffton/Franklin win then Franklin is A and Bluffton C... if Franklin/Rose win then Rose is A and Franklin C... and if MSJ/Bluffton win Bluffton is A.

An interesting scenario.  I'll mull this over some more before I update the table this week, but I think right now my lean is to keep RHIT red on the at-large table.  If MSJ beats Franklin, Franklin stops being ranked which would be bad for RHIT.  Similarly, if RHIT beats Bluffton, I don't think Bluffton gets ranked either.  The IC loss is a bad look and while RHIT's SOS isn't all that bad right now (it's not great), they still haven't detonated the SOS bomb that is Earlham.   And now that we're whittling the field of contenders down a bit more and are getting a better idea of where teams are lining up in the at-large queue, it's difficult to see RHIT getting high enough in the North to have a plausible shot at at-large invitation.  But I need to look at it some more to be sure.  Thanks for pointing these HCAC scenarios out for me.  I had definitely overlooked the possibility of a Rose/MSJ co-championship. 
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Online FCGrizzliesGrad

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #31 on: October 23, 2016, 10:41:53 am »
By no means do I think Rose has a chance at a pool C spot (and with both Franklin and Trine losing I think that may have finished off Bluffton's chance as well) but in the interest of erring on the side of inclusion I thought I'd mention it. :)
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Offline smedindy

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #32 on: October 23, 2016, 01:48:19 pm »
Aside from Mt. Union and North Central, the North is just a mess. Wheaton will probably make it at 9-1. JCU will be 8-2 with two losses to excellent teams, but two losses. The NCAC runner up will have two losses unless it's Denison (and Dension beats DPU, which causes a ripple effect of issues elsewhere).

The North may have just one "C", Wheaton, if other shenanigans happen. Will a 9-1 Wabash make it? Will 8-2 JCU be ranked ahead of them? What about Denison. I think the HCAC gets just their champ, even if it's 9-1 Bluffton in the "C" spot.

I'm sure the South can get messy with the SAA and PAC merry-go-rounds. The West seems reasonable, depending on where they line up UW-P versus one loss Dubuque, where they decide to rank Monmouth, and if St. John's can beat C-M. I don't think a two-loss Whitworth gets on the "C" board.

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #33 on: October 23, 2016, 02:19:17 pm »
Just as a heads up, I think I'm going to put out a projection this week.  I did one last year the week before RRs came out, which would be this week.  I'll use the various regional fan polls as surrogate regional rankings this week, editing only if there's something really weird.  The fan polls do a really good job, but sometimes miss a bit on valuing the win percentage criteria.  Probably target Wednesday for that post. 
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Offline wesleydad

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #34 on: October 23, 2016, 04:59:02 pm »
Just as a heads up, I think I'm going to put out a projection this week.  I did one last year the week before RRs came out, which would be this week.  I'll use the various regional fan polls as surrogate regional rankings this week, editing only if there's something really weird.  The fan polls do a really good job, but sometimes miss a bit on valuing the win percentage criteria.  Probably target Wednesday for that post.

Like it.  Hope the east has a clear picture, not likely though with the mess that is going on this year.

Offline Scots13

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #35 on: October 23, 2016, 11:38:55 pm »
Just as a heads up, I think I'm going to put out a projection this week.  I did one last year the week before RRs came out, which would be this week.  I'll use the various regional fan polls as surrogate regional rankings this week, editing only if there's something really weird.  The fan polls do a really good job, but sometimes miss a bit on valuing the win percentage criteria.  Probably target Wednesday for that post.

Have fun with the South, minus the top 4 ::)
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Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #36 on: October 24, 2016, 09:14:32 pm »
As things are playing out in the PresAC, TMC and CWRU can tie. TMC gets the tie-breaker and undefeated CWRU goes to Pool C.

Can one honestly deny an undefeated team with a respectable schedule a Pool C bid?

HSU and CWRU as Pool C from the South (IMHO thru week 8.)

Offline Mr. Ypsi

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #37 on: October 24, 2016, 09:29:40 pm »
As things are playing out in the PresAC, TMC and CWRU can tie. TMC gets the tie-breaker and undefeated CWRU goes to Pool C.

Can one honestly deny an undefeated team with a respectable schedule a Pool C bid?

HSU and CWRU as Pool C from the South (IMHO thru week 8.)

Alas, I hardly think Case would be a candidate to break up the 'Texas Sub-bracket'.  Barring a revolt against the NCAA 'bean-counters', looks like UMHB-HSU in a first round game (that should be at least third round).  Assuming they don't suddenly decide to loosen the purse-strings on account of fairness, are there ANY realistic alternative pairings to avoid UMHB/HSU, The Sequel?
« Last Edit: October 24, 2016, 09:34:24 pm by Mr. Ypsi »

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #38 on: October 24, 2016, 09:43:37 pm »
As things are playing out in the PresAC, TMC and CWRU can tie. TMC gets the tie-breaker and undefeated CWRU goes to Pool C.

Can one honestly deny an undefeated team with a respectable schedule a Pool C bid?

HSU and CWRU as Pool C from the South (IMHO thru week 8.)

Alas, I hardly think Case would be a candidate to break up the 'Texas Sub-bracket'.  Barring a revolt against the NCAA 'bean-counters', looks like UMHB-HSU in a first round game (that should be at least third round).  Assuming they don't suddenly decide to loosen the purse-strings on account of fairness, are there ANY realistic alternative pairings to avoid UMHB/HSU, The Sequel?

I'm sure there are other ways, but the most reasonable scenario that lets the NCAA avoid a UMHB/HSU round 1 game involves the following:
1- no Pool Cs from the NWC or SCIAC.  That pairing has to happen for one flight
and 
2- Hendrix wins the SAA and gets to drive to either UMHB or HSU
and
3- you've got some odd team out somewhere else (Husson, perhaps) and there just has to be a second flight. 

Of course, if they can make Hendrix drive somewhere other than Texas and all of the other 13 pairs of teams can get matched up in a way that avoids a second flight, then that's probably what happens. 
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Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #39 on: October 24, 2016, 09:50:17 pm »
As things are playing out in the PresAC, TMC and CWRU can tie. TMC gets the tie-breaker and undefeated CWRU goes to Pool C.

Can one honestly deny an undefeated team with a respectable schedule a Pool C bid?

HSU and CWRU as Pool C from the South (IMHO thru week 8.)

Alas, I hardly think Case would be a candidate to break up the 'Texas Sub-bracket'.  Barring a revolt against the NCAA 'bean-counters', looks like UMHB-HSU in a first round game (that should be at least third round).  Assuming they don't suddenly decide to loosen the purse-strings on account of fairness, are there ANY realistic alternative pairings to avoid UMHB/HSU, The Sequel?
Yes sir.  Hendrix winning the AQ for the SAA could go to UMHB, 480 miles.

But, Hendrix is available to Huntingdon specifically, 488 miles.

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #40 on: October 24, 2016, 09:59:03 pm »
Alright, updated eliminator tables through 10/22 games:





A lot of new eliminations (in white) this week:
Trine - A loss to Hope is devastating.  The loss to Bluffton becomes a serious North region roadblock for Trine, which puts any realistic shot they have at getting high enough in the rankings to get an invitation.
Benedictine
Wartburg
Hamline
Illinois College
Lake Forest*
Macalester*
Pacific Lutheran
Eureka**
MacMurray*
Northwester**
St. Scholastica
UW-Stevens Point
Juniata
Moravian
Guilford
St. Vincent
SUNY-Maritime
Buffalo State
Merchant Marine
Plymouth State

* LFC, Macalester, and MacMurray.  These teams have not lost three times or lost twice outside of their leagues, which is the de facto elimination criteria.  However, we've got enough information at this point that all three of these two loss teams have no reasonable path to an at-large bid.  We can see that at least some of the following teams are going to get in the West's rankings with 2 or fewer losses: Coe, Dubuque, Central, C-M, St. John's, St. Thomas, Linfield, Whitworth, UWs Oshkosh, Platteville, La Crosse, Whitewater.  Basically as long as three of those teams don't lose three games, the UMACs and MWCs are blocked. 

** The remaining UMACs, Eureka and Northwestern, play each other in the final week.  The winner is getting an AQ, the loser is going to pick up the second loss that I used to eliminate the teams in the first asterisked point. 

I did give more thought to pulling RHIT back from the red, but have decided to stand pat on last week's decision to knock them out.  I think the series of events that has to happen for RHIT to be an 8-2 non-autoqualifier do too much damage to their profile to make them the 1st or 2nd at-large team in the region, which would have to happen for the Engineers to have any chance at all at an at-large bid.  I think RHIT is an AQ or out.  That missed extra point against Illinois College is everything right now.
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Offline wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #41 on: October 24, 2016, 10:05:26 pm »
As things are playing out in the PresAC, TMC and CWRU can tie. TMC gets the tie-breaker and undefeated CWRU goes to Pool C.

Can one honestly deny an undefeated team with a respectable schedule a Pool C bid?

HSU and CWRU as Pool C from the South (IMHO thru week 8.)

Alas, I hardly think Case would be a candidate to break up the 'Texas Sub-bracket'.  Barring a revolt against the NCAA 'bean-counters', looks like UMHB-HSU in a first round game (that should be at least third round).  Assuming they don't suddenly decide to loosen the purse-strings on account of fairness, are there ANY realistic alternative pairings to avoid UMHB/HSU, The Sequel?
Yes sir.  Hendrix winning the AQ for the SAA could go to UMHB, 480 miles.

But, Hendrix is available to Huntingdon specifically, 488 miles.

"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

“The O line has proven they can block some of the best in the conference and I can't wait to see what they do on Saturday." Matt Hunt, DePauw Quarterback, Sacked 5 times in the 121st Monon Bell Classic

Offline Scots13

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #42 on: October 24, 2016, 10:50:12 pm »
As things are playing out in the PresAC, TMC and CWRU can tie. TMC gets the tie-breaker and undefeated CWRU goes to Pool C.

Can one honestly deny an undefeated team with a respectable schedule a Pool C bid?

HSU and CWRU as Pool C from the South (IMHO thru week 8.)

Alas, I hardly think Case would be a candidate to break up the 'Texas Sub-bracket'.  Barring a revolt against the NCAA 'bean-counters', looks like UMHB-HSU in a first round game (that should be at least third round).  Assuming they don't suddenly decide to loosen the purse-strings on account of fairness, are there ANY realistic alternative pairings to avoid UMHB/HSU, The Sequel?
Yes sir.  Hendrix winning the AQ for the SAA could go to UMHB, 480 miles.

But, Hendrix is available to Huntingdon specifically, 488 miles.



If Hendrix gets the SAA AQ and goes to UMHB, who does HSU play?  ???
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Offline wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #43 on: October 24, 2016, 11:04:28 pm »
If Hendrix gets the SAA AQ and goes to UMHB, who does HSU play?  ???

Could be anybody.  If there's an odd team out somewhere, the committee can get creative with it.  Husson is another outlier who can make their quadrant of the bracket unbalanced in the opposite way that you see with the Texas/West Coast sub-bracket.  Could shoot Husson to Texas and maintain balance.  But it doesn't have to be Husson.  Any odd team out from anywhere could get on a plane.  I think my main point was that if there HAS to be two flights and one is going to be SCIAC/NWC, then you can have Hendrix play at UMHB and literally anybody else play at HSU.  There may not have to be two flights. 
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Offline smedindy

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Re: Pool C in 2016
« Reply #44 on: October 25, 2016, 12:38:47 am »
What may help with the flight merry-go-rounds that the NWC and SCIAC probably won't get "C"s. Dubuque and Coe will probably win out, with Dubuque probably being ranked along with Oshkosh, St. John's and maybe Platteville. Toss in St. Thomas, Linfield, UW-Whitewater, and Monmouth (I can't see the West not ranking a 10-0 Monmouth) and the SCIAC winner, Whitworth probably will never be ranked. C-M may get ranked too. 

Central hitting the 2-point conversion against Whitworth looms large for the Pirates' C chances.