Author Topic: Records of Conference vs D3 Non Conference Games  (Read 10074 times)

Offline Gregory Sager

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Re: Records of Conference vs D3 Non Conference Games
« Reply #30 on: November 28, 2016, 03:05:28 pm »
ALSO - This year Nebraska Wesleyan is part of the IIAC mix. So...add them and their 24th Massey ranking thus far (with a 5-1 overall record) and they'll look good.

This is a good point. The addition of NebWes appears to be a real shot in the arm for the IIAC's strength this season -- and I suspect that it will continue to do so into the future, provided that the program always has a coaching staff that knows how to sell D3 to prospects as a positive alternative to the Great Plains Athletic Conference, the Cornhusker-centric NAIA league from which NebWes emerged, and against which NebWes will no doubt continue to contend on the recruiting trail.
"Talent is God-given. Be humble. Fame is man-given. Be grateful. Conceit is self-given. Be careful..” -- John Wooden

Offline smedindy

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Re: Records of Conference vs D3 Non Conference Games
« Reply #31 on: November 28, 2016, 03:06:36 pm »
Dave, we've been over this....

For one it's the entire universe of hoopdom (as I said before), so when you're constructing a power rankings to differentiate for 'this counts for X but not for Y" is pretty difficult to do in an algorithm that accounts for NCAA, NAIA, Canadian schools ,etc.

Sagarin and Ken Pom can say - I'm only counting D1 vs D1 because that's their data set. Massey uses the entire CBB universe, so it's different.

For two, it's early enough that there's a lot of noise in the data. I don't know if everyone is connected yet. It's a rough guide now, but after December it should be a fairly robust data point to use in evaluation. Not THE only evaluation point, but one to definitely examine.

It's not 'flawed' in general unless you're going into it by 'the eye test' that supercedes actual data. And if your going back to that one MIAC examples I debunked that a couple of years ago. Beating a team that hung the only loss on the D-2 champs will help you, and the rest of the schools you play.
« Last Edit: November 28, 2016, 03:13:57 pm by smedindy »

Offline smedindy

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Re: Records of Conference vs D3 Non Conference Games
« Reply #32 on: November 28, 2016, 03:12:05 pm »
Also, my Nebraska Wesleyan example seems to be a good example why the 'count' / 'not count' argument is ludicrous.

They lost to Rockhurst by 10 in an exhibition for Nebraska Wesleyan. Rockhurst is a mid-pack D2 school, but a much better test and measuring stick for the relative goodness of Nebraska Wesleyan than the thumping of Blackburn, Illinois College and Macmurray.

Offline hopefan

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Re: Records of Conference vs D3 Non Conference Games
« Reply #33 on: November 29, 2016, 07:24:58 am »
Through 11/28  Records of D3 Conference vs D3 non Conference

1   NESCAC      36   10   0.783
2   UAA      25   10   0.714
3   WIAC      20   8   0.714
4   IIAC      24   10   0.706
5   CCIW      25   11   0.694
6   Newmac      22   11   0.667
7   Landmark      21   11   0.656
8   OAC      26   14   0.650
9   MIAC      24   13   0.649
10   SCIAC      11   7   0.611
11   CC      17   11   0.607
12   LEC      20   13   0.606
13   CAC      24   16   0.600
14   MACC      21   14   0.600
15   SUNY      21   14   0.600
16   NAC      19   13   0.594
17   MACF      20   14   0.588
18   ASC      18   13   0.581
19   LL      22   16   0.579
20   NWC      15   11   0.577
21   E8      21   16   0.568
22   HCAC      17   14   0.548
23   ODAC      24   21   0.533
24   NCAC      18   19   0.486
25   PrAC      17   18   0.486
26   NJAC      15   16   0.484
27   MIAA      14   15   0.483
28   CCC      18   22   0.450
29   USAC      20   25   0.444
30   SLIAC      17   23   0.425
31   CSAC      13   18   0.419
32   SAA      13   18   0.419
33   NECC      13   20   0.394
34   MWC      9   15   0.375
35   CUNY      13   23   0.361
36   SCAC      14   26   0.350
37   Mascac      9   17   0.346
38   NACC      9   21   0.300
39   AMCC      11   28   0.282
40   Sky      12   31   0.279
41   Independents      12   33   0.267
42   UMAC      7   24   0.226
43   NEAC      8   31   0.205
44   GNAC      6   27   0.182

Offline hopefan

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Re: Records of Conference vs D3 Non Conference Games
« Reply #34 on: December 02, 2016, 07:38:30 am »
D3 vs D3 non conference   thru Dec 1


1   NESCAC      45   12   0.789
2   UAA      29   10   0.744
3   WIAC      23   9   0.719
4   IIAC      24   11   0.686
5   OAC      31   16   0.660
6   Newmac      28   15   0.651
7   Landmark      24   13   0.649
8   MIAC      24   13   0.649
9   CCIW      27   15   0.643
10   SCIAC      11   7   0.611
11   CAC      24   16   0.600
12   LEC      25   17   0.595
13   LL      27   19   0.587
14   CC      17   12   0.586
15   SUNY      24   17   0.585
16   MACC      21   15   0.583
17   E8      25   18   0.581
18   NWC      15   11   0.577
19   ASC      20   15   0.571
20   HCAC      20   16   0.556
21   MACF      22   18   0.550
22   NAC      19   16   0.543
23   ODAC      24   23   0.511
24   PrAC      17   18   0.486
25   NJAC      15   16   0.484
26   MIAA      16   19   0.457
27   SAA      16   19   0.457
28   NCAC      19   23   0.452
29   CCC      18   22   0.450
30   USAC      22   27   0.449
31   SLIAC      17   23   0.425
32   CSAC      13   18   0.419
33   MWC      10   16   0.385
34   SCAC      16   27   0.372
35   CUNY      13   24   0.351
36   NECC      13   25   0.342
37   Mascac      12   25   0.324
38   NACC      10   21   0.323
39   AMCC      12   28   0.300
40   Sky      14   33   0.298
41   Independents      13   38   0.255
42   GNAC      9   27   0.250
43   UMAC      7   25   0.219
44   NEAC      8   31   0.205

Offline hopefan

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Re: Records of Conference vs D3 Non Conference Games
« Reply #35 on: December 05, 2016, 07:44:47 pm »
Through games of 12/4/16
D3 vs D3 Non conference

1   NESCAC      51   14   0.785
2   UAA      36   13   0.735
3   WIAC      29   11   0.725
4   IIAC      25   11   0.694
5   OAC      31   16   0.660
6   Landmark      24   13   0.649
7   MIAC      24   13   0.649
8   CCIW      27   15   0.643
9   Newmac      32   18   0.640
10   LL      33   21   0.611
11   CAC      24   16   0.600
12   LEC      25   17   0.595
13   SCIAC      13   9   0.591
14   CC      17   12   0.586
15   SUNY      24   17   0.585
16   MACC      21   15   0.583
17   NWC      15   11   0.577
18   MACF      24   18   0.571
19   ASC      20   15   0.571
20   HCAC      20   16   0.556
21   NAC      19   17   0.528
22   E8      27   25   0.519
23   ODAC      26   26   0.500
24   PrAC      17   18   0.486
25   NJAC      15   16   0.484
26   SAA      20   22   0.476
27   NCAC      19   23   0.452
28   CCC      18   22   0.450
29   MIAA      18   22   0.450
30   USAC      25   31   0.446
31   SLIAC      17   23   0.425
32   CSAC      13   19   0.406
33   MWC      10   16   0.385
34   SCAC      17   30   0.362
35   CUNY      13   26   0.333
36   NECC      13   26   0.333
37   NACC      10   22   0.313
38   Mascac      13   30   0.302
39   AMCC      12   28   0.300
40   Sky      14   34   0.292
41   Independents      16   43   0.271
42   UMAC      9   25   0.265
43   GNAC      10   28   0.263
44   NEAC      8   31   0.205

Offline hopefan

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Re: Records of Conference vs D3 Non Conference Games
« Reply #36 on: December 14, 2016, 04:27:13 am »
D3 vs Non conference D3 thru 12/13/16

1   NESCAC      69   17   0.802
2   WIAC      40   14   0.741
3   UAA      43   19   0.694
4   IIAC      28   13   0.683
5   OAC      31   16   0.660
6   MIAC      26   14   0.650
7   LEC      35   20   0.636
8   CCIW      29   17   0.630
9   Newmac      42   25   0.627
10   SCIAC      16   10   0.615
11   Landmark      33   21   0.611
12   CAC      24   16   0.600
13   CC      21   14   0.600
14   LL      42   29   0.592
15   ASC      23   16   0.590
16   MACC      23   16   0.590
17   MACF      35   25   0.583
18   SUNY      25   20   0.556
19   HCAC      20   16   0.556
20   NWC      17   15   0.531
21   PrAC      20   19   0.513
22   E8      30   31   0.492
23   NAC      19   20   0.487
24   USAC      34   36   0.486
25   NJAC      18   20   0.474
26   ODAC      29   33   0.468
27   NCAC      19   23   0.452
28   CSAC      18   24   0.429
29   SAA      20   27   0.426
30   SLIAC      19   26   0.422
31   CCC      23   32   0.418
32   MIAA      18   26   0.409
33   MWC      10   17   0.370
34   SCAC      18   31   0.367
35   Sky      23   41   0.359
36   GNAC      17   34   0.333
37   Independents      26   53   0.329
38   NECC      16   33   0.327
39   AMCC      14   29   0.326
40   NACC      11   23   0.324
41   Mascac      19   44   0.302
42   UMAC      12   30   0.286
43   CUNY      13   33   0.283
44   NEAC      11   41   0.212

Offline hopefan

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Re: Records of Conference vs D3 Non Conference Games
« Reply #37 on: December 19, 2016, 04:02:43 am »
Through games of 12/18/16

1   NESCAC      70   18   0.795
2   WIAC      43   16   0.729
3   UAA      45   20   0.692
4   OAC      34   16   0.680
5   IIAC      32   16   0.667
6   Landmark      39   21   0.650
7   MIAC      27   16   0.628
8   CCIW      32   19   0.627
9   LEC      35   21   0.625
10   MACC      30   18   0.625
11   Newmac      43   26   0.623
12   ASC      24   16   0.600
13   LL      42   29   0.592
14   CC      22   16   0.579
15   MACF      35   26   0.574
16   NWC      24   18   0.571
17   CAC      24   19   0.558
18   SUNY      27   22   0.551
19   PrAC      23   19   0.548
20   HCAC      20   17   0.541
21   NJAC      24   21   0.533
22   SCIAC      17   15   0.531
23   NAC      19   20   0.487
24   E8      32   34   0.485
25   ODAC      36   39   0.480
26   USAC      36   42   0.462
27   CSAC      20   26   0.435
28   NCAC      19   25   0.432
29   SLIAC      19   26   0.422
30   MIAA      20   28   0.417
31   CCC      23   33   0.411
32   SCAC      23   34   0.404
33   Sky      27   43   0.386
34   SAA      20   34   0.370
35   NACC      12   23   0.343
36   Independents      29   56   0.341
37   NECC      17   33   0.340
38   MWC      10   21   0.323
39   GNAC      17   36   0.321
40   UMAC      13   30   0.302
41   Mascac      19   44   0.302
42   AMCC      14   33   0.298
43   CUNY      13   34   0.277
44   NEAC      12   43   0.218

Offline hopefan

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Re: Records of Conference vs D3 Non Conference Games
« Reply #38 on: December 19, 2016, 04:25:07 am »
Kind of interesting when you regionalize those Win loss records vs non-conference teams through 12/18.. with a little analysis, some conclusions could be jumped at

15   MACF      35   26   0.574      ATL         
21   NJAC      24   21   0.533      ATL         
27   CSAC      20   26   0.435      ATL         
33   Sky      27   43   0.386      ATL         
43   CUNY      13   34   0.277      ATL   119   150   0.442
                              
2   WIAC      43   16   0.729      CEN         
8   CCIW      32   19   0.627      CEN         
29   SLIAC      19   26   0.422      CEN         
35   NACC      12   23   0.343      CEN         
38   MWC      10   21   0.323      CEN   116   105   0.525
                              
13   LL      42   29   0.592      EAST         
18   SUNY      27   22   0.551      EAST         
24   E8      32   34   0.485      EAST         
44   NEAC      12   43   0.218      EAST   113   128   0.469
                              
4   OAC      34   16   0.680      GL         
19   PrAC      23   19   0.548      GL         
20   HCAC      20   17   0.541      GL         
28   NCAC      19   25   0.432      GL         
30   MIAA      20   28   0.417      GL         
42   AMCC      14   33   0.298      GL   130   138   0.485
                              
6   Landmark      39   21   0.650      MA         
10   MACC      30   18   0.625      MA         
14   CC      22   16   0.579      MA         
17   CAC      24   19   0.558      MA   115   74   0.608
                              
3   UAA      45   20   0.692      MULTI         
36   Independents      29   56   0.341      MULTI   74   76   0.493
                              
1   NESCAC      70   18   0.795      NE         
9   LEC      35   21   0.625      NE         
11   Newmac      43   26   0.623      NE         
23   NAC      19   20   0.487      NE         
31   CCC      23   33   0.411      NE         
37   NECC      17   33   0.340      NE         
39   GNAC      17   36   0.321      NE         
41   Mascac      19   44   0.302      NE   243   231   0.513
                              
12   ASC      24   16   0.600      SOUTH         
25   ODAC      36   39   0.480      SOUTH         
26   USAC      36   42   0.462      SOUTH         
32   SCAC      23   34   0.404      SOUTH         
34   SAA      20   34   0.370      SOUTH   139   165   0.457
                              
5   IIAC      32   16   0.667      WEST         
7   MIAC      27   16   0.628      WEST         
16   NWC      24   18   0.571      WEST         
22   SCIAC      17   15   0.531      WEST         
40   UMAC      13   30   0.302      WEST   113   95   0.543

Offline hopefan

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Re: Records of Conference vs D3 Non Conference Games
« Reply #39 on: December 30, 2016, 04:37:27 am »
Through Games of 12/29/16


1   NESCAC      77   18   0.811
2   WIAC      55   16   0.775
3   UAA      48   23   0.676
4   OAC      41   21   0.661
5   CCIW      42   25   0.627
6   Landmark      43   26   0.623
7   ASC      33   20   0.623
8   IIAC      36   22   0.621
9   LEC      36   23   0.610
10   NWC      34   22   0.607
11   Newmac      45   30   0.600
12   MACC      38   26   0.594
13   MIAC      27   19   0.587
14   LL      42   30   0.583
15   CAC      32   23   0.582
16   SUNY      31   23   0.574
17   NJAC      29   23   0.558
18   MACF      39   34   0.534
19   HCAC      25   23   0.521
20   SCIAC      23   22   0.511
21   CC      24   23   0.511
22   PrAC      26   25   0.510
23   ODAC      45   44   0.506
24   NAC      20   22   0.476
25   E8      34   38   0.472
26   USAC      40   48   0.455
27   NCAC      25   30   0.455
28   MIAA      28   36   0.438
29   CSAC      23   30   0.434
30   CCC      24   34   0.414
31   SLIAC      21   30   0.412
32   SCAC      28   41   0.406
33   Sky      29   48   0.377
34   SAA      23   41   0.359
35   Independents      35   63   0.357
36   Mascac      22   44   0.333
37   NECC      17   34   0.333
38   MWC      14   28   0.333
39   NACC      13   27   0.325
40   AMCC      17   36   0.321
41   UMAC      14   32   0.304
42   GNAC      17   39   0.304
43   CUNY      16   37   0.302
44   NEAC      12   44   0.214

Offline Greek Tragedy

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Re: Records of Conference vs D3 Non Conference Games
« Reply #40 on: December 30, 2016, 10:16:48 am »
Great work, hopefan!
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Offline hopefan

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Re: Records of Conference vs D3 Non Conference Games
« Reply #41 on: January 09, 2017, 10:07:13 am »
Through 1/8/17.... with conferences starting full steam, there won't be much change to this the rest of the way.

1   NESCAC      91   23   0.798
2   WIAC      59   19   0.756
3   UAA      55   30   0.647
4   OAC      44   25   0.638
5   LEC      49   28   0.636
6   CCIW      47   28   0.627
7   ASC      40   24   0.625
8   NWC      38   24   0.613
9   Landmark      50   32   0.610
10   Newmac      50   32   0.610
11   IIAC      39   27   0.591
12   MIAC      28   20   0.583
13   MACC      43   31   0.581
14   SUNY      35   27   0.565
15   LL      42   34   0.553
16   SCIAC      27   23   0.540
17   CC      34   30   0.531
18   NJAC      31   28   0.525
19   ODAC      53   48   0.525
20   CAC      35   33   0.515
21   MACF      42   40   0.512
22   HCAC      29   28   0.509
23   USAC      48   50   0.490
24   NCAC      32   34   0.485
25   E8      38   41   0.481
26   PrAC      27   30   0.474
27   NAC      26   29   0.473
28   CSAC      27   32   0.458
29   MIAA      32   38   0.457
30   CCC      30   36   0.455
31   SCAC      33   44   0.429
32   SLIAC      22   31   0.415
33   Sky      37   55   0.402
34   MWC      17   30   0.362
35   Independents      42   75   0.359
36   SAA      27   49   0.355
37   Mascac      26   51   0.338
38   NECC      21   43   0.328
39   NACC      13   28   0.317
40   UMAC      17   37   0.315
41   CUNY      19   42   0.311
42   AMCC      18   42   0.300
43   GNAC      18   43   0.295
44   NEAC      13   50   0.206

Offline gordonmann

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Re: Records of Conference vs D3 Non Conference Games
« Reply #42 on: January 11, 2017, 11:47:33 am »
Big year for the Little East.

Offline warriorcat

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Re: Records of Conference vs D3 Non Conference Games
« Reply #43 on: January 11, 2017, 02:27:32 pm »
There is greater parity in the LEC this year but I think it is more a matter of wise scheduling.  They take advantage of the large number of teams that are within reasonable driving distance in and out of region.

Offline hopefan

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Re: Records of Conference vs D3 Non Conference Games
« Reply #44 on: February 03, 2017, 08:27:07 am »
Thru 2/2/17    D3 vs Non conference D3


1   NESCAC      108   24   0.818
2   WIAC      59   19   0.756
3   UAA      55   30   0.647
4   OAC      44   25   0.638
5   ASC      42   24   0.636
6   CCIW      48   30   0.615
7   Newmac      51   32   0.614
8   NWC      38   24   0.613
9   Landmark      50   32   0.610
10   LEC      50   33   0.602
11   MACC      45   31   0.592
12   IIAC      39   27   0.591
13   MIAC      28   20   0.583
14   NJAC      36   29   0.554
15   LL      43   35   0.551
16   SUNY      35   29   0.547
17   SCIAC      27   23   0.540
18   CC      35   31   0.530
19   ODAC      53   48   0.525
20   HCAC      30   28   0.517
21   CAC      35   33   0.515
22   USAC      52   50   0.510
23   MACF      42   42   0.500
24   NCAC      32   34   0.485
25   E8      38   41   0.481
26   PrAC      27   30   0.474
27   MIAA      32   38   0.457
28   CCC      30   36   0.455
29   CSAC      28   34   0.452
30   SCAC      33   45   0.423
31   NAC      26   36   0.419
32   SLIAC      22   31   0.415
33   Sky      39   59   0.398
34   Independents      60   96   0.385
35   UMAC      23   38   0.377
36   MWC      17   30   0.362
37   NACC      16   29   0.356
38   SAA      27   51   0.346
39   CUNY      24   49   0.329
40   NECC      21   45   0.318
41   Mascac      26   56   0.317
42   AMCC      19   44   0.302
43   GNAC      18   44   0.290
44   NEAC      15   53   0.221