Author Topic: 2017 Preseason Poll  (Read 1488 times)

Offline BigPoppa

  • All-American
  • ******
  • Posts: 4405
  • Karma: +277/-81
    • View Profile
    • Carthage Baseball
2017 Preseason Poll
« on: January 19, 2017, 09:25:51 am »
I'd love to hear what everyone's initial impression of the first poll is.

2017 D3baseball.com/NCBWA Top 25

Records from 2016, Previous rankings from final 2016 D3baseball.com/NCBWA Top 25

#
School (1st votes)   Rec   Pts   Prev.
1   Cortland (15)   0-0   595   2
2   Keystone (1)   0-0   527   3
3   UW-La Crosse   0-0   523   4
4   Emory (1)   0-0   508   6
5   La Roche           0-0   505   5
6   Birmingham-Southern   0-0   455   10
7   Trinity (Texas) (7)   0-0   442   1
8   St. John Fisher   0-0   416   7
9   UW-Whitewater   0-0   414   9
10   Randolph-Macon   0-0   386   8
11   Ramapo   0-0   364   14
12   Oswego State   0-0   304   12
13   Tufts   0-0   299   13
14   Wooster (1)   0-0   253   17
15   Concordia-Chicago   0-0   220   16
16   Shenandoah   0-0   194   11
17   Washington U.   0-0   188   rv
18   TCNJ   0-0   155   19
19   Kean   0-0   149   rv
20   Texas-Tyler   0-0   102   rv
21   Texas Lutheran   0-0   92   -
22   Cal Lutheran   0-0   88   23
23   Marietta   0-0   78   rv
24   Salisbury   0-0   71   18
25   North Central (Ill.)   0-0   61   20
 

Others recieving votes: Wartburg 57, Whitworth 52, Mass.-Boston 48, Adrian 48, Saint John's (Minn.) 47, Susquehanna 46, Southern Maine 45, Webster 39, Occidental 36, Rose-Hulman 34, Haverford 30, Thomas More 22, Pacific Lutheran 22, William Paterson 21, Frostburg State 20, East Texas Baptist 17, Washington and Jefferson 17, Otterbein 15, Ithaca 14, Washington College 13, Misericordia 11, Widener 10, Concordia (Texas) 9, Buena Vista 7, MIT 7, Rhodes 7, Christopher Newport 6, St. Scholastica 6, Suffolk 6, Wheaton (Mass.) 6, LaGrange 4, St. Thomas (Minn.) 4, Case Western Reserve 3, Endicott 3, Johns Hopkins 3, Washington and Lee 3, Huntingdon 2, Ohio Northern 2, Alvernia 1, Linfield 1, Penn St.-Behrend 1, Salve Regina 1.
Baseball is not a game that builds character, it is a game that reveals it.

Offline Jack Parkman

  • All-Region
  • *****
  • Posts: 1399
  • Karma: +406/-51
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 Preseason Poll
« Reply #1 on: January 19, 2017, 06:22:04 pm »
I'd love to hear what everyone's initial impression of the first poll is.

2017 D3baseball.com/NCBWA Top 25

Records from 2016, Previous rankings from final 2016 D3baseball.com/NCBWA Top 25

#
School (1st votes)   Rec   Pts   Prev.
1   Cortland (15)   0-0   595   2
2   Keystone (1)   0-0   527   3
3   UW-La Crosse   0-0   523   4
4   Emory (1)   0-0   508   6
5   La Roche           0-0   505   5
6   Birmingham-Southern   0-0   455   10
7   Trinity (Texas) (7)   0-0   442   1
8   St. John Fisher   0-0   416   7
9   UW-Whitewater   0-0   414   9
10   Randolph-Macon   0-0   386   8
11   Ramapo   0-0   364   14
12   Oswego State   0-0   304   12
13   Tufts   0-0   299   13
14   Wooster (1)   0-0   253   17
15   Concordia-Chicago   0-0   220   16
16   Shenandoah   0-0   194   11
17   Washington U.   0-0   188   rv
18   TCNJ   0-0   155   19
19   Kean   0-0   149   rv
20   Texas-Tyler   0-0   102   rv
21   Texas Lutheran   0-0   92   -
22   Cal Lutheran   0-0   88   23
23   Marietta   0-0   78   rv
24   Salisbury   0-0   71   18
25   North Central (Ill.)   0-0   61   20
 

Others recieving votes: Wartburg 57, Whitworth 52, Mass.-Boston 48, Adrian 48, Saint John's (Minn.) 47, Susquehanna 46, Southern Maine 45, Webster 39, Occidental 36, Rose-Hulman 34, Haverford 30, Thomas More 22, Pacific Lutheran 22, William Paterson 21, Frostburg State 20, East Texas Baptist 17, Washington and Jefferson 17, Otterbein 15, Ithaca 14, Washington College 13, Misericordia 11, Widener 10, Concordia (Texas) 9, Buena Vista 7, MIT 7, Rhodes 7, Christopher Newport 6, St. Scholastica 6, Suffolk 6, Wheaton (Mass.) 6, LaGrange 4, St. Thomas (Minn.) 4, Case Western Reserve 3, Endicott 3, Johns Hopkins 3, Washington and Lee 3, Huntingdon 2, Ohio Northern 2, Alvernia 1, Linfield 1, Penn St.-Behrend 1, Salve Regina 1.

Two things stand out to me:

1- Wooster being ranked 14 but getting a First Place vote.  Does someone know something the rest of the voters dont?
2- Trinity getting 7 First Place votes.  No doubt they were a great team last year but they come into this year replacing the entire starting lineup.  I have no doubt they will reload but that is a lot to replace and repeat.

Offline 108 Stitches

  • All-Region
  • *****
  • Posts: 1245
  • Karma: +175/-23
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 Preseason Poll
« Reply #2 on: January 19, 2017, 06:49:43 pm »
I am with Jack. Wooster homer I guess.  Both Cortland and Keystone should be good. As I get farther from seeing teams on the field it is really hard for me to have a knowledgeable opinion. Opinions - yes, as always. Trinity should be a top 15 team based on their history but they will be replacing EVERY position on the field, a tough thing to do following a series of very experienced teams. They have solid pitching with some strong additions which should help them in the early going to stay competitive as the position players get sorted out. They do have 20 Sr's and Jr's who have been groomed and I am sure are really excited to finally get their chance.

Offline Mr. Ypsi

  • All-American
  • ******
  • Posts: 20949
  • Karma: +3126/-3133
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 Preseason Poll
« Reply #3 on: January 19, 2017, 10:30:21 pm »
Big Poppa, I'm sure we can agree that a poll in which neither Carthage or IWU receives a single vote is obviously invalid! :o ;D

Offline Ralph Turner

  • Hall of Fame
  • All-American
  • ********
  • Posts: 27135
  • Karma: +1675/-374
  • Hall of Famer
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 Preseason Poll
« Reply #4 on: January 20, 2017, 02:19:05 am »
There are times that I wish the automatic ballot by Presto Sports would eliminate the highest vote for each team. 

Would that eliminate the "homer" effect that one might hope to eliminate?

I would hope to achieve a better handle with the "high vote elimination process" on the real strength and support for the "receiving votes" teams.
Did Misericordia actually get 11 votes from one single ballot at #15 or was it listed as a #25, a #24, #23 and a #21 to get 11 votes?

In those 2 scenarios, Misericordia is either not listed or shows up with 6 votes that we know came from being voted on at least 2 ballots.

Offline Jim Dixon

  • D3baseball.com Guru
  • Global Moderator
  • All-Region
  • *****
  • Posts: 1644
  • Karma: +122/-2
  • Managing Editor, D3baseball.com
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 Preseason Poll
« Reply #5 on: January 21, 2017, 01:12:04 pm »
Here are some stats to put the Wooster vote in context.

1)  There were five teams that had as as large a difference from their highest vote and the next highest vote.

2) There were three teams that had their only vote with a top 10 vote.

The preseason poll can be a bit of the wild west and you will see that as time goes on, the number of teams in the Top 25 will decline as teams with promise do not play up to that.

I do not see the Wooster first place vote as an anomaly.  Looking at the team, they are a strong team and have the kind of team that can very well be the eventual national champion.  The National champion does not always start in the top of the poll.  Here is the starting position of every national champion in the preseason poll (2001-2016)

12, 1, rv, 15, 1, 7.



Offline BigPoppa

  • All-American
  • ******
  • Posts: 4405
  • Karma: +277/-81
    • View Profile
    • Carthage Baseball
Re: 2017 Preseason Poll
« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2017, 07:55:56 am »
Big Poppa, I'm sure we can agree that a poll in which neither Carthage or IWU receives a single vote is obviously invalid! :o ;D

Of course!
Baseball is not a game that builds character, it is a game that reveals it.

Offline Ralph Turner

  • Hall of Fame
  • All-American
  • ********
  • Posts: 27135
  • Karma: +1675/-374
  • Hall of Famer
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 Preseason Poll
« Reply #7 on: January 24, 2017, 11:12:49 am »
Under Jim's scenario, Wooster as the #2 Mideast team in the poll beats #1 Mideast LaRoche in the Regional finals to move on to Fox Cities.

That is not implausible.

Thanks Jim for giving us more information about the poll.

Here are some stats to put the Wooster vote in context.

1)  There were five teams that had as as large a difference from their highest vote and the next highest vote.

2) There were three teams that had their only vote with a top 10 vote.

The preseason poll can be a bit of the wild west and you will see that as time goes on, the number of teams in the Top 25 will decline as teams with promise do not play up to that.

I do not see the Wooster first place vote as an anomaly.  Looking at the team, they are a strong team and have the kind of team that can very well be the eventual national champion.  The National champion does not always start in the top of the poll.  Here is the starting position of every national champion in the preseason poll (2001-2016)

12, 1, rv, 15, 1, 7.




"...Thomas More 22, Pacific Lutheran 22, William Paterson 21, Frostburg State 20, East Texas Baptist 17, Washington and Jefferson 17,..."

Who might those 3 teams be?

My guesses are Frostburg State as  #6, ETBU as a #8 and W&J as a #8.

I think that PacLu should be on the watch list as the best team out of the Northwest Conference.

I love the quality of ball played in the NWC. You just cannot know who is going to break out of that pack.

Offline 108 Stitches

  • All-Region
  • *****
  • Posts: 1245
  • Karma: +175/-23
    • View Profile
Re: 2017 Preseason Poll
« Reply #8 on: January 24, 2017, 05:54:18 pm »
I love the quality of ball played in the NWC. You just cannot know who is going to break out of that pack.

I agree there are always strong teams and players out of this region. I wonder if they have the same dynamic as the Wisconsin teams? Not a lot of D1 programs to siphon off the better players who want to stay in the region? Obviously the WI schools are much larger and state, but could be this has an impact.

Offline BigPoppa

  • All-American
  • ******
  • Posts: 4405
  • Karma: +277/-81
    • View Profile
    • Carthage Baseball
Re: 2017 Preseason Poll
« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2017, 08:09:06 am »
I love the quality of ball played in the NWC. You just cannot know who is going to break out of that pack.

I agree there are always strong teams and players out of this region. I wonder if they have the same dynamic as the Wisconsin teams? Not a lot of D1 programs to siphon off the better players who want to stay in the region? Obviously the WI schools are much larger and state, but could be this has an impact.

WI/MN has always been an under-recruited region. There are total of only TWO D1 programs between the two states. It is quickly becoming well-known by southern schools who seem to always be in the area recruiting. In my 8 years coaching in MN I have noticed a huge increase in SEC/Big 12 schools recruiting the area... Florida and Oklahoma seem to be all over this region.

So many telented kids slip through the cracks here and land at local schools (Which has been a huge help for MIAC/WIAC and CSS).
Baseball is not a game that builds character, it is a game that reveals it.