Author Topic: 2017 South Atlantic  (Read 12817 times)

Offline PaulNewman

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Re: 2017 South Atlantic
« Reply #165 on: November 01, 2018, 06:34:38 pm »
Aren't tournament PK's considered a draw?  What if W&L wins ODAC on PK's and therefore hands Lynch a draw so they finish with a record of 14-1-3.  Do you still keep them out with 1 loss?

The die has been cast and a draw will not save them.  Lynchburg has not been ranked and teams that aren't ranked don't have a chance (other than some nebulous theoretical chance) if history is any guide.  And if Lynchburg wins the AQ then W&L almost certainly isn't getting in because generally only teams ranked in the top half or at worst top two-thirds of the rankings get a bid. 

Offline PaulNewman

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Re: 2017 South Atlantic
« Reply #166 on: November 01, 2018, 06:46:14 pm »
I guess we are just going to disagree. Personally I think the system works well but there are always ways to improve. I think the OWP suggestion has merit. It's quantifiable and I think it should stay that way. Any kind of "well... because we think so" is a slippery slope and I'm glad it's mostly not allowed. I haven't found cases where the criteria has excluded a team in favor of an unjustifiable alternative. I don't think Lynchburg is that case either. Everyone on the South Atlantic list is justifiable. There simply aren't enough slots. There is always a last team out. One of the ODAC teams is likely to play or be close to that role this year. That doesn't mean the system is wrong. Someone will ALWAYS be in that role, regardless of the system so long as there are finite berths. And there will always be a way to justify that last team out even though they didn't get in.

Yep, we disagree.....And it's not about finite berths.  The question here isn't even that Lynchburg didn't get a rankings slot.  They (or W&L) would have needed a rankings slot high enough to get in.  Do you truly think it is theoretically impossible for everyone or almost everyone to agree sometimes?  Like, let's say for the sake of argument that Endicott gets a bid at like 10-6-2, with a good SoS and a few ranked wins (like 3-5 or 3-6) and St Joe's doesn't with a perfect season at 18-0 (and 78 GF and 1 GA even allowing for a weak conference but still some good teams out of conference), and we know based on very recent evidence that St. Joe's has performed well in the tournament, AND St. Joe's beat Endicott head to head.  There is a clear argument that Endicott (or several NJAC teams with very, very  mediocre years but 3+ ranked wins) don't "deserve" a bid and wouldn't even complain much or believe they deserve a bid....but can you really say St. Joe's isn't deserving???  True wiggle room would allow a couple of corrections across the entire field.

Offline Mr.Right

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Re: 2017 South Atlantic
« Reply #167 on: November 01, 2018, 06:48:06 pm »
Hmmmmm.....

So you have:

Mary Washington at 13-1-3 with .535 SOS and 2-0-0 RvR

Lynchburg at 13-1-2 with .511 SOS and 1-0-1 RvR


And....Mary Washington is ranked #2 in South Atlantic and Lynchburg cannot crack the Top 8....



I would like ANYONE to try and explain that one.....


Since FW did a fantastic  job of explaining why Lynchburg's SOS sucks I would love an explanation  on how a team with a very similar resume to Lynchburg's is ranked #2 in the same region. There is a very minor SOS difference but not enough of a difference  for one team to be #2 and the other unranked. To me this is the biggest travesty of any of it.

Offline lastguyoffthebench

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Re: 2017 South Atlantic
« Reply #168 on: November 02, 2018, 05:19:46 pm »
WPU absolutely has a chance, albeit a small one.   4 wins vs ranked opponents and an SOS near .600
However, I think with New Paltz dropping to Brockport, their window in closing.  Wins over Haverford and Eastern are huge.


ODAC, to me, is a one bid league at this point... Committee has shown no love for Lynchburg and if W&L falls in the final, they are likely to slip a spot to 9 or 10 within the region.   I have a terrible memory, and I know it has been pointed out, but if they are not on the NCAA Regional Rankings, I don't think they are brought to the National level.... I could be wrong, but I don't think in tournament history, and unranked team has made the dance.

W&L losing to Lynchburg in ODAC final and getting passed over for WPU would be a travesty. 
W&L has 3 losses (all in an 8 day period in the first 9 days of September) and 2 of those were in OT (Emory & F&M).
WPU has 7 losses which include a lopsided 0-3 home loss to the same F&M team, a 1-2 loss to sub .500 Stockton and 1-3 losses to MSU and RUC.

Last year CNU was ranked all four releases and did not earn an at-large bid with a 14-3-1 record,
8th 10-2-0  .537
7th 11-2-1  .547
8th 12-2-1  .540
8th 14-3-1  .547 //  loses to W&L, Rowan, and UMW in CAC final.

Dickinson ranked all four releases, #5 in MA, got in with a record of 11-6-3 // .604 SOS // 4-6-1 SOS.   A resume that is eerily similar to that of WPU.

Offline jknezek

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Re: 2017 South Atlantic
« Reply #169 on: November 03, 2018, 02:32:02 pm »
W&L takes out Roanoke 4-0. Lynchburg Bridgewater to go today.

Offline EB2319

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Re: 2017 South Atlantic
« Reply #170 on: November 03, 2018, 02:49:22 pm »
Lynchburg down 0-1 midway through 1st half.

Offline jknezek

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Re: 2017 South Atlantic
« Reply #171 on: November 03, 2018, 05:50:00 pm »
And thus ends the argument for Lynchburg. We will see if W&L can win when it matters and make it a non-issue.

Offline jknezek

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Re: 2017 South Atlantic
« Reply #172 on: November 04, 2018, 02:55:47 pm »
W&L takes the ODAC with a dominating 3-0 win over Bridgewater. 13-0-1 in the last 14 games. They haven't conceded 2 goals in a game since their last loss on 9/9. They will be a good test for whoever they face in the NCAAs. Playing with lots of confidence and speed right now.

Offline jknezek

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Re: 2017 South Atlantic
« Reply #173 on: November 05, 2018, 01:16:01 pm »
Tough draw for W&L. Johns Hopkins and, if they get past, Messiah. Those three losses were brutal. But the Generals are playing well. We will see how they hold up.

Offline EB2319

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Re: 2017 South Atlantic
« Reply #174 on: December 12, 2018, 01:10:43 pm »