Author Topic: Pool C - 2017  (Read 29888 times)

Offline ExTartanPlayer

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #240 on: November 11, 2017, 05:08:45 pm »
This is getting ridiculous, lol.

Both teams have had the game won and lost in the last two minutes.

Offline Bob.Gregg

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #241 on: November 11, 2017, 05:41:11 pm »
40 seconds to go and kneeling down to win, CMU takes penalty, has to punt, blocked, returned for TD.
CWRU over-celebrates, has to KO from own 20, does a short squib.
CMU kicks FG sending game to OT, then can't block anybody for Benger on 3rd & 5, 4th & 4 in OT...

How much stupidity can be crammed into 40 second of the Academic Bowl?

Defeat snatched from the jaws of victory, shoved back where it came from and is projectile-vomited back.
Crazy (and exciting) end to that one....

I'm not sure CWRU will sleep soundly tonight, but, in the end, they'll get in the dance at 10-0.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2017, 05:43:26 pm by Bob.Gregg »
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Offline edward de vere

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #242 on: November 11, 2017, 05:51:12 pm »
"How much stupidity can be crammed into 40 seconds of the Academic Bowl?"

Okay, I know funny and THAT'S funny.

Offline Titan Q

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #243 on: November 11, 2017, 06:22:34 pm »
So bubble teams are hoping fellow bubble DePauw win as they keep IWU off the board. Don't see that scenario too often.
If everything was the same except DePauw was out of the way (say by losing some game this weekend that no one has heard of ;)), where would IWU fall in the pecking order? And with IWU in, could Wheaton get to the table and have any say in proceedings (probably not)?

With the Wabash win over DePauw, IWU definitely leapfrogs DePauw in the North...and I think Wheaton does too.

I think IWU, the North's top Pool C candidate, gets picked very early in the process...and Wheaton hits the board for the final 2-3 picks.

Offline SaintsFAN

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #244 on: November 11, 2017, 06:26:46 pm »
"How much stupidity can be crammed into 40 seconds of the Academic Bowl?"

Okay, I know funny and THAT'S funny.

That LT for CMU learned about keeping your poise and I bet the CMU staff learned a lesson about putting a senior backup QB in to kneel.  If he goes straight down to his knee none of the stuff happens afterward.

Sad to see Benger go out like that..
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Offline wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #245 on: November 11, 2017, 06:47:12 pm »
Bob, I don't think you've been clear- do you think there's any chance CWRU won't make the field tomorrow? 

So bubble teams are hoping fellow bubble DePauw win as they keep IWU off the board. Don't see that scenario too often.
If everything was the same except DePauw was out of the way (say by losing some game this weekend that no one has heard of ;)), where would IWU fall in the pecking order? And with IWU in, could Wheaton get to the table and have any say in proceedings (probably not)?

With the Wabash win over DePauw, IWU definitely leapfrogs DePauw in the North...and I think Wheaton does too.

I think IWU, the North's top Pool C candidate, gets picked very early in the process...and Wheaton hits the board for the final 2-3 picks.

Maybe Wabash jumps Wheaton?  LGs have an SOS advantage and I suspect DPU will count as a regionally ranked win.  This shouldn't happen, but the first two rankings put out by the North RAC also shouldn't have happened, so who knows. 

I think Wheaton really, really needed CWRU to not block that punt.  Wheaton needed a jillion dominoes to fall over the last month of the year, and they almost all did.  All but that last one. 
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Offline wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #246 on: November 11, 2017, 11:01:50 pm »
One last projection.  D3Football.com will do one with a full bracket sometime later tonight/tomorrow AM.  Today's results really shouldn't jumble the regional rankings in ways that make projecting the at-larges weird.  I'll talk about where the regional rankings shuffle and how it impacts things below.  Click here for a full rundown of the mechanics.  25 A, 2 B, 5 C.  Off we go. 

Pool A
Here are your automatic qualifiers:


Pool B
Before I jump into the Pool B's nothing in the regional rankings that I've mocked up tonight changes.  At least not the order for our B-eligible teams.  It's still the same three teams in the same three places for these two spots. 

Round 1:
1S Mary Hardin-Baylor: 10-0, 2-0 vs. RROs, 0.538 SOS
3E Springfield: 10-0, 1-0 vs. RROs, 0.513

No news here.  The Crusaders are in first.   

Round 2:
2S Hardin-Simmons: 8-1, 0-1 vs. RROs, 0.508
3E Springfield: 10-0, 1-0 vs. RROs, 0.513

So, an interesting thing has happened over the last couple of weeks in that the SOS gap between the Pride and the Cowboys has not only shrunk, but has reversed.  Now the Pride have the higher SOS rating, they also have an RRO win vs E10 Western New England.  As of tonight, I don't see a good reason to not put Springfield in before Hardin-Simmons and I won't.   

Now after UMHB and Springfield come out of our rankings lists, the remaining regional boards look as follows:
East: 5E Frostburg State, 8E Framingham State
North: 5N Illinois Wesleyan, 7N Wheaton, 8N Wabash, 9N Hope, 10N DePauw
South: 2S Hardin-Simmons, 5S Case Western Reserve, 7S Centre, 8A Franklin & Marshall, 10S Hendrix
West: 5W St. John's, 7W UW-La Crosse, 8W Concordia-Moorhead, 9W Whitworth, 10W UW-Whitewater

Some notes on what I did with the regional rankings:
East- I actually changed nothing here.  Didn't see results out that region this week that shake things up. 
North- The DePauw losing creates some shuffling and relieves a lot of stress over in Lincoln Land.  I glibly suggested earlier that Wabash could be ranked ahead of Wheaton...it's not crazy.  I didn't do it, but the criteria would kind of support it and the North RAC has forgone common sense this season. 
South- I didn't really mess with these rankings either.  The one thing that I waffled on for a while is whether or not to rank W&L in front of Hendrix.  Ultimately I didn't, but that's definitely a thing that could happen and I think that's a thing that really matters. 
West - Lake Forest, who shouldn't have been ranked anyway, lost and took care of that.  You might be able to replace Whitworth with Chapman if you really wanted to, but you could have done that last week also.  So I left Whitworth in.  Also pushed Whitewater in finally.  And the other thing that is important here is that I left UW-La Crosse ahead of Concordia-Moorhead despite some criteria advantages that C-M have over UWL.  It's hard to see the Cobbers jump La Crosse after losing a game. 

Alright, hope that covers about everything with the rankings...time to pick teams. 

Pool C:
Round 1:
5N Illinois Wesleyan - 9-1, 2-1 vs. RROs, 0.522 SOS
2S Hardin-Simmons - 8-1, 0-1 vs. RROs, 0.508
5E Frostburg St. - 9-1, 0-1 vs. RROs, 0.499
5W St. John's - 8-1, 1-1 vs. RROs, 0.519

After a couple of weeks of getting blocked by wholly unworthy DePauw, Illinois Wesleyan is first in line and they are the strongest C-candidate in the field- even better than Hardin-Simmons despite the ordinal ranking difference.  The emergence of Whitewater in the West rankings really makes this choice clear.  The other interesting thing happening this week is that St. John's scooped up an RRO win, so they're a bit more attractive w/ respect to Hardin-Simmons than they have been in previous projections.   
IWU, SJU, HSU, FSU

Round 2:
7N Wheaton - 8-2, 1-1 vs. RROs, 0.507 SOS
2S Hardin-Simmons - 8-1, 0-1 vs. RROs, 0.508
5E Frostburg St. - 9-1, 0-1 vs. RROs, 0.499
5W St. John's - 8-1, 1-1 vs. RROs, 0.519

The moons have lined up to get Wheaton to the doorstep after everything that has happened with them this season.  The trouble at this point is that Millikin is knocked out and they've got an unranked loss now amongst their multiple losses and their SOS is ok, but not great and lower than other teams around them.  This looks like tough sledding for Wheaton.  On the other hand, St. John's and Hardin-Simmons still look good and I think St. John's has jumped ahead of the Cowboys, so the Johnnies are my pick.   
SJU, HSU, FSU, WC

Round 3:
7N Wheaton - 8-2, 1-1 vs. RROs, 0.507 SOS
2S Hardin-Simmons - 8-1, 0-1 vs. RROs, 0.508
5E Frostburg St. - 9-1, 0-1 vs. RROs, 0.499
7W UW-La Crosse - 8-2, 0-2 vs. RROs, 0.550

It's going to be the Cowboys' time now, and not a moment too soon, right Spartans?  La Crosse is new and they get a smidgen of help with Whitewater showing up in the rankings because losses to ranked teams are better than losses to unranked teams (sorry, Wheaton).  I think the Eagles however still fall behind the single loss teams.  Bit of a toss up with Wheaton, though.  I'm breaking the tie using the common opponent result with Carroll.   :)
H-SU, FSU, WC, UWL

Round 4:
7N Wheaton - 8-2, 1-1 vs. RROs, 0.507 SOS
5S Case Western Reserve -  10-0, 0-0 vs. RROs, 0.448
5E Frostburg St. - 9-1, 0-1 vs. RROs, 0.499
7W UW-La Crosse - 8-2, 0-2 vs. RROs, 0.550

Even though the Spartans couldn't get that SOS out of the 200+ ranking zone, they did drag it up almost 100 points in two weeks.  It's still a bad number, but they're undefeated and they're going in.  And they're probably going in the second they hit the board. 
CWRU, FSU, WC, UWL

Round 5:
7N Wheaton - 8-2, 1-1 vs. RROs, 0.507 SOS
7S Centre -  9-1, 1-1 vs. RROs, 0.480
5E Frostburg St. - 9-1, 0-1 vs. RROs, 0.499
7W UW-La Crosse - 8-2, 0-2 vs. RROs, 0.550

And now we're back to Centre again this week.  Here's where the bottom end of the South's rankings really matter.  Last week's S10 Hendrix is 8-2 with 0-2 RROs.  Poking around the South region, you've also got 8-2 Washington & Lee, with a brand new ODAC championship in tow.  After today's games, W&L has a better SOS than Hendrix.  Interesting.  W&L also lost very close to S6 Johns Hopkins as their RRO result whereas Hendrix lost not-so-close games to the other two ranked SAA teams.  W&L does have a bad loss on their record against E&H, which is a big anchor.  However, there are reasons to place W&L ahead of Hendrix and doing so chops out Centre's RRO win, which is a huge chip to play against the rest of this board.  The other thing going on here is that Frostburg has been hanging out since Round 1, accumulating vote capital.  You can see through my not-so-secret ballot how Frostburg has rolled up to the top pending whatever I decide to do with Centre.  I'm going to select Frostburg as my final team in.  However I want to preface this by saying that it's totally reasonable to see Centre selected here, particularly if they carry an RRO win vs. Hendrix.  If the Colonels don't have that, it shouldn't be a question and Frostburg is a fairly easy choice. 
FSU, Centre, WC, UWL

And to think that the last selection into this field between Centre and Frostburg may well have been decided by Washington & Lee vs. Emory & Henry.  It's all connected, folks. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

“The O line has proven they can block some of the best in the conference and I can't wait to see what they do on Saturday." Matt Hunt, DePauw Quarterback, Sacked 5 times in the 121st Monon Bell Classic

Offline thunderdog

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #247 on: November 11, 2017, 11:10:55 pm »
Great stuff Wally... here’s to hoping you’re wrong on your pool C #5 selection ;)

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #248 on: November 11, 2017, 11:21:27 pm »
Great stuff Wally... here’s to hoping you’re wrong on your pool C #5 selection ;)

I'm sure I will be.   :)

Weirder things have happened here than Wheaton being invited tomorrow. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

“The O line has proven they can block some of the best in the conference and I can't wait to see what they do on Saturday." Matt Hunt, DePauw Quarterback, Sacked 5 times in the 121st Monon Bell Classic

Offline thunderdog

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #249 on: November 11, 2017, 11:32:50 pm »
Interesting concept u brought up with Frosty accumulating “vote capital” by round 5 for being at the table since round 1. This didn’t seem to help them last year when they were the 1st team up in the East and the East was shut-out in 2016... but interesting nonetheless...

Looking closer at a Frosty vs Wheaton analysis:

Wheaton has a slight edge in SOS, 507 vs .499. Wheaton also has the edge in RRO, 1-1 vs 0-1. The quality of Wheaton’s 1 RRO win is stronger than just about any other RRO out there. It’s against the CCIW champ and AQ, and it was in impressive fashion. Plus, Wheaton will have almost as much “vote capital” built up by round 5 if IWU is the first team selected. Will that be enough to overcome a Wheaton 8-2 record vs Frosty’s 9-1?

It’s possible!
« Last Edit: November 11, 2017, 11:35:19 pm by thunderdog »

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #250 on: November 11, 2017, 11:44:18 pm »
You also have to remember that Wheaton has lost to an unranked team.  Nobody else in the conversation for at-large bids carries that distinction.  Without an overwhelming SOS or multiple RRO wins, Wheaton is not in a strong position, in my opinion.  And we also don't know what the committee will choose to do with that North Central result.  In the end, however the committee parses the Brass Bell game, Wheaton not being in the tournament happens because they lost a second game.  They could have absorbed one, but definitely not two.  Not this year. 

But they are probably on the board which means anything is possible. 

(truthfully, it's probably done at this point...we just don't get to know until tomorrow night)
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

“The O line has proven they can block some of the best in the conference and I can't wait to see what they do on Saturday." Matt Hunt, DePauw Quarterback, Sacked 5 times in the 121st Monon Bell Classic

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #251 on: November 11, 2017, 11:52:01 pm »
It looks like D3Football.com landed on the same at-large selections as I did, just slightly different with the order and the way they ranked teams.  Really, a pretty calm week 11 results wise.  I know there were same crazy games out there today, but expected results kind of carried the day. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

“The O line has proven they can block some of the best in the conference and I can't wait to see what they do on Saturday." Matt Hunt, DePauw Quarterback, Sacked 5 times in the 121st Monon Bell Classic

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #252 on: November 12, 2017, 12:47:26 am »
Good job Wally.  +1!

Congrats on the Monon Bell Game.

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #253 on: November 12, 2017, 10:17:46 am »
CWRU at W&J makes a good #5 vs #4 South Region playoff game IMHO

Offline HansenRatings

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #254 on: November 12, 2017, 12:41:31 pm »
It looks like D3Football.com landed on the same at-large selections as I did, just slightly different with the order and the way they ranked teams.  Really, a pretty calm week 11 results wise.  I know there were same crazy games out there today, but expected results kind of carried the day.

As did my model.

Some caveats before I post the full results of the model. First, the model doesn't account for this years' previous regional rankings at all. I would have liked to, but I frankly didn't have time. Second, the purpose of the model is to determine the most-likely Pool C candidates each year by assuming the committee acts predictably each year, and that each RAC behaves in the same way. It's pretty obvious that isn't the case.

So read the output as saying, "If the committee values these factors equally each year, based on who got in previous seasons, this is how often a team with a similar resume made the tournament." Based on all this, if there's one team the model thinks may sneak up on us, it's F&M. I would agree, if they weren't stuck behind Centre and if they hadn't been blown out by JHU in their only loss. The most-likely two-loss team should/could be Concordia, but if they're still stuck behind UWL, that doesn't seem likely either. Redlands is also sneaking in at the bottom of my list. Knowing that Whitworth has been in the regional rankings and Redlands wasn't, you could probably just switch out Redlands for Whitworth.

Team   Overall W-L   DIII W-L   Conf W-L   NCAA SOS   My SOS   Non-Conf SOS   SOR   Pool C Odds   
Case Western Reserve   10-0   10-0   8-0   0.448   0.524   0.712   13%   91%   
Illinois Wesleyan   9-1   9-1   7-1   0.522   0.827   0.914   1%   83%   
Frostburg State   9-1   9-1   8-1   0.499   0.622   0.871   26%   75%   
St. John's   9-1   8-1   7-1   0.519   0.657   0.342   10%   71%   
Hardin-Simmons   9-1   8-1   8-1   0.503   0.645   N/A   11%   61%   
Franklin & Marshall   9-1   9-1   8-1   0.520   0.580   0.540   34%   46%   
Concordia-Moorhead   8-2   8-2   6-2   0.503   0.782   0.890   7%   31%   
Wheaton   8-2   8-2   6-2   0.507   0.672   0.371   31%   15%   
Framingham State   9-1   9-1   7-1   0.497   0.362   0.625   90%   9%   
UW-La Crosse   8-2   8-2   5-2   0.539   0.827   0.316   6%   7%   
Hope   8-2   8-2   5-1   0.524   0.554   0.463   61%   5%   
Redlands   7-2   7-2   5-1   0.527   0.510   0.741   71%   4%   
Centre   9-1   9-1   7-1   0.480   0.366   0.077   74%   2%   
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