Author Topic: Pool C - 2017  (Read 23768 times)

Online wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #285 on: November 27, 2017, 01:05:52 pm »
I think what's interesting as you look at that table and see that, with very rare exceptions, do Pool C teams get really deep in the tournament is you start to get a sense at how ludicrous the idea that the tournament is somehow less than it could be because it doesn't take the "best" 32 teams is.  We're only taking 5-6 teams that are supposed to be the best of the rest, and they almost never get really deep or pose a big challenge to one of the powerful teams that they might lose to.  Despite the annual crow-fest about how the AQs water down the tournament and crowd out "better" teams, the reality is that we're not leaving out serious contenders- even with so few at-large teams. 
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Offline art76

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #286 on: November 27, 2017, 01:12:03 pm »
Despite the annual crow-fest about how the AQs water down the tournament and crowd out "better" teams, the reality is that we're not leaving out serious contenders- even with so few at-large teams.

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Offline bluestreak66

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #287 on: November 27, 2017, 02:05:19 pm »
If someone else wants to take the time to see how far they all made it.

Year   Teams   
2016   UW-Oshkosh   UW-Platteville   St. John's   Wheaton Ill.   Mount Union   Hardin-Simmons      
2015   UW-Whitewater   Ohio Northern   Whitworth   Wesley   t. John's   UMHB      
2014   Centre   John Carroll   Wabash   St. Thomas   Delaware Valley   Muhlenberg      
2013   UW-Platteville   John Carroll   Pacific Lutheran   St. John Fisher   Illinois Wesleyan         
2012   Heidelberg   Pacific Lutheran   Bridgewater State   Rowan   Bethel   Elmhurst   Louisiana College   
2011   Redlands   Centre   Illinois College   St. John Fisher   Illinois Wesleyan   McMurry      
[/b]
2010   Hampden-Sydney   Ohio Northern   Montclair State   Bethel   Coe   Wheaton      
2009   Washington and Jefferson   Wabash   St. Thomas   Albright   Coe   UMHB      
2008   UW-Whitewater   Washington and Jefferson   Otterbein   Plymouth State   Wheaton   Hardin-Simmons      
2007   UW-Eau Claire   Capital   St. John's   Hobart   Mount St. Joseph   St. John Fisher   Ithaca   
2006   UW-La Crosse   Capital   St. John's   Hobart   St. John Fisher   North Central   Hardin-Simmons   
2005   Washington and Jefferson   Capital   Cortland   Concordia-Moorhead   Wilkes   Hobart   Central   North Central

I know I should probably know (since I was playing back then), but seriously, what the heck was going on in 2011? LOL
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Offline HansenRatings

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #288 on: November 27, 2017, 02:52:03 pm »
If someone else wants to take the time to see how far they all made it.

Year   Teams   
2016   UW-Oshkosh   UW-Platteville   St. John's   Wheaton Ill.   Mount Union   Hardin-Simmons      
2015   UW-Whitewater   Ohio Northern   Whitworth   Wesley   t. John's   UMHB      
2014   Centre   John Carroll   Wabash   St. Thomas   Delaware Valley   Muhlenberg      
2013   UW-Platteville   John Carroll   Pacific Lutheran   St. John Fisher   Illinois Wesleyan         
2012   Heidelberg   Pacific Lutheran   Bridgewater State   Rowan   Bethel   Elmhurst   Louisiana College   
2011   Redlands   Centre   Illinois College   St. John Fisher   Illinois Wesleyan   McMurry      
2010   Hampden-Sydney   Ohio Northern   Montclair State   Bethel   Coe   Wheaton      
2009   Washington and Jefferson   Wabash   St. Thomas   Albright   Coe   UMHB      
2008   UW-Whitewater   Washington and Jefferson   Otterbein   Plymouth State   Wheaton   Hardin-Simmons      
2007   UW-Eau Claire   Capital   St. John's   Hobart   Mount St. Joseph   St. John Fisher   Ithaca   
2006   UW-La Crosse   Capital   St. John's   Hobart   St. John Fisher   North Central   Hardin-Simmons   
2005   Washington and Jefferson   Capital   Cortland   Concordia-Moorhead   Wilkes   Hobart   Central   North Central

I know I should probably know (since I was playing back then), but seriously, what the heck was going on in 2011? LOL

No f'ing clue. That was my senior year, and we went 8-2 with two wins over 9-1 opponents. I knew we would be a long shot, but I still don't understand that Illinois College pick. Baffling.
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Online wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #289 on: November 27, 2017, 03:51:42 pm »
I know I should probably know (since I was playing back then), but seriously, what the heck was going on in 2011? LOL

No f'ing clue. That was my senior year, and we went 8-2 with two wins over 9-1 opponents. I knew we would be a long shot, but I still don't understand that Illinois College pick. Baffling.

2011 was a weird selection year.  The North RAC ranked CWRU ahead of Wheaton which effectively blocked them.  Looks like a similar thing was happening in the West with Wartburg and Illinois College.  What precipitated was a weird scenario where you had 9-1 CWRU, 9-1 IC, and 8-2 SJF all on the board at the same time (and a multi-loss South team that doesn't really factor in...I think it might have Louisiana  College).  CWRU and IC had similar SOSs (I think IC was slightly better), plus IC was 0-1 vs. RROs thanks to a stomping they got by Monmouth.  CWRU was undefeated in-region, but lost to Rochester which was a really bad loss.  There was some intrigue around whether or not that out-of-region loss wouldn't matter as much, but we know in hindsight that you can't really ignore in-division games.  The x-factor here was that CWRU's loss to Rochester happened to be a shared opponent with SJF, which was just rotten luck for the Spartans.  SJF also had them more than covered by the SOS metric...the common opponent result made it even easier to select SJF ahead of CWRU, even with the extra loss (and SJF may have had a favorable RRO result in there as well).  Really almost any other multi-loss East team probably doesn't go in ahead of CWRU, but that one- with that one shared opponent- did.  And then picking between CWRU and IC was kind of a coin flip.  Depends on how much you value a loss to a ranked team (even a bad one) vs. a loss to an unranked team.  The RRO loss won out. 

All the while, Wheaton and Wartburg, who were probably better teams than CWRU or IC, never got a sniff because of the way the rankings fell. 
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Offline bluestreak66

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #290 on: November 27, 2017, 03:56:04 pm »
I know I should probably know (since I was playing back then), but seriously, what the heck was going on in 2011? LOL

No f'ing clue. That was my senior year, and we went 8-2 with two wins over 9-1 opponents. I knew we would be a long shot, but I still don't understand that Illinois College pick. Baffling.

2011 was a weird selection year.  The North RAC ranked CWRU ahead of Wheaton which effectively blocked them.  Looks like a similar thing was happening in the West with Wartburg and Illinois College.  What precipitated was a weird scenario where you had 9-1 CWRU, 9-1 IC, and 8-2 SJF all on the board at the same time (and a multi-loss South team that doesn't really factor in...I think it might have Louisiana  College).  CWRU and IC had similar SOSs (I think IC was slightly better), plus IC was 0-1 vs. RROs thanks to a stomping they got by Monmouth.  CWRU was undefeated in-region, but lost to Rochester which was a really bad loss.  There was some intrigue around whether or not that out-of-region loss wouldn't matter as much, but we know in hindsight that you can't really ignore in-division games.  The x-factor here was that CWRU's loss to Rochester happened to be a shared opponent with SJF, which was just rotten luck for the Spartans.  SJF also had them more than covered by the SOS metric...the common opponent result made it even easier to select SJF ahead of CWRU, even with the extra loss (and SJF may have had a favorable RRO result in there as well).  Really almost any other multi-loss East team probably doesn't go in ahead of CWRU, but that one- with that one shared opponent- did.  And then picking between CWRU and IC was kind of a coin flip.  Depends on how much you value a loss to a ranked team (even a bad one) vs. a loss to an unranked team.  The RRO loss won out. 

All the while, Wheaton and Wartburg, who were probably better teams than CWRU or IC, never got a sniff because of the way the rankings fell.

ah-ha! That makes a lot of sense! Thanks for clearing it up! :)
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Offline smedindy

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #291 on: November 27, 2017, 04:32:18 pm »
I think everyone was shocked at Illinois College.

If I recall, I went round and round with Wally on the merits of CWRU being 9-0 in region, and he was right and I was wrong about what the committee would do.

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #292 on: November 27, 2017, 08:46:59 pm »
Wally, and others in the know, how deep has a "Pool C" team ever gone in the play-offs? Frostburg State has won two now and has to get by Mount Union. If they could do that, would they be in good company with other Pool C teams?

Oshkosh was a Pool C team last year.  I'd have to do a deeper dive to find some other examples of at-large teams going real deep.  It's definitely happened.

UWW was Pool C in '08 when they lost in the Stagg Bowl, too.
UMHB was a Pool C in 2004 when they lost in the Stagg to Pool B Linfield.

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #293 on: November 27, 2017, 08:56:52 pm »
If someone else wants to take the time to see how far they all made it.

Year   Teams   
2016   UW-Oshkosh   UW-Platteville   St. John's   Wheaton Ill.   Mount Union   Hardin-Simmons      
2015   UW-Whitewater   Ohio Northern   Whitworth   Wesley   t. John's   UMHB      
2014   Centre   John Carroll   Wabash   St. Thomas   Delaware Valley   Muhlenberg      
2013   UW-Platteville   John Carroll   Pacific Lutheran   St. John Fisher   Illinois Wesleyan         
2012   Heidelberg   Pacific Lutheran   Bridgewater State   Rowan   Bethel   Elmhurst   Louisiana College   
2011   Redlands   Centre   Illinois College   St. John Fisher   Illinois Wesleyan   McMurry      
2010   Hampden-Sydney   Ohio Northern   Montclair State   Bethel   Coe   Wheaton      
2009   Washington and Jefferson   Wabash   St. Thomas   Albright   Coe   UMHB      
2008   UW-Whitewater   Washington and Jefferson   Otterbein   Plymouth State   Wheaton   Hardin-Simmons      
2007   UW-Eau Claire   Capital   St. John's   Hobart   Mount St. Joseph   St. John Fisher   Ithaca   
2006   UW-La Crosse   Capital   St. John's   Hobart   St. John Fisher   North Central   Hardin-Simmons   
2005   Washington and Jefferson   Capital   Cortland   Concordia-Moorhead   Wilkes   Hobart   Central   North Central

I know I should probably know (since I was playing back then), but seriously, what the heck was going on in 2011? LOL

No f'ing clue. That was my senior year, and we went 8-2 with two wins over 9-1 opponents. I knew we would be a long shot, but I still don't understand that Illinois College pick. Baffling.
In Round #1 of the 2011 playoffs, Pool C McMurry won at Pool A Trinity with its regular season QB injured. The backup played the whole game. McMurry lost to UMHB in Round 2.

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #294 on: November 27, 2017, 08:58:39 pm »
With respect to the 2011 Pool C discussion, Pat has saved that message board.

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=7502.0

Offline smedindy

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #295 on: November 27, 2017, 11:36:50 pm »
Wow, that was a good one. This year was cake compared to that, and also the silly Centre / TLU spat that wound up moot in 2014.

Offline USee

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #296 on: November 28, 2017, 09:50:57 am »
I think what's interesting as you look at that table and see that, with very rare exceptions, do Pool C teams get really deep in the tournament is you start to get a sense at how ludicrous the idea that the tournament is somehow less than it could be because it doesn't take the "best" 32 teams is.  We're only taking 5-6 teams that are supposed to be the best of the rest, and they almost never get really deep or pose a big challenge to one of the powerful teams that they might lose to.  Despite the annual crow-fest about how the AQs water down the tournament and crowd out "better" teams, the reality is that we're not leaving out serious contenders- even with so few at-large teams.

Though I am not a stats guy I don't think this is an equitable analysis of the Pool C group. If the question is "who can compete for a national title" then we should only have a 4 team pool like the BCS does. How did the Pool C teams fare as compared to random groups of 5-6 other teams in the tournament? That may yield a better comparison than focusing on 17% of the field. Or possibly take out the UWW and UMU and analyze the rest of the field and how "far" they go in the tournament.

A quick glance says that since 2005 twelve teams not named UWW or UMU have been to the Semi's or better. Four of those were Pool C teams and exactly 2 of those teams (Linfield and Wesley) came from conferences outside of D3.Com's top 5 (WIAC, ASW,MIAC, OAC, CCIW) and more specifically every team that made the semis or Stagg from Pool C came from one of those top 5 conferences.

I don't know what relevance this all has but I am pretty sure the data does not say Pool C teams are any worse than any other random AQ qualifier and, without having taken a deep dive, it may actually support the idea that Pool C teams make the tournament field stronger.
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Offline emma17

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #297 on: November 28, 2017, 09:57:32 am »
I think what's interesting as you look at that table and see that, with very rare exceptions, do Pool C teams get really deep in the tournament is you start to get a sense at how ludicrous the idea that the tournament is somehow less than it could be because it doesn't take the "best" 32 teams is.  We're only taking 5-6 teams that are supposed to be the best of the rest, and they almost never get really deep or pose a big challenge to one of the powerful teams that they might lose to.  Despite the annual crow-fest about how the AQs water down the tournament and crowd out "better" teams, the reality is that we're not leaving out serious contenders- even with so few at-large teams.

Funny, my view on the data is totally opposite. I'm not arguing against the AQ system, but I certainly support the idea that 
"the right" Pool C teams can improve the tournament.
Not only does the table show Pool C teams have made it to the Stagg, they've also made it to the semis and the quarters. In addition, and probably more important, is how many quality Pool C teams ended up getting beat in the playoffs by a Stagg Bowl participant- in games that were much more competitive than many AQ games.
I'd argue the table proves that if the goal were to create the most competitive tournament while maintaining the AQ, the Pool C selection process should change.   

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #298 on: November 28, 2017, 10:01:08 am »
I think what's interesting as you look at that table and see that, with very rare exceptions, do Pool C teams get really deep in the tournament is you start to get a sense at how ludicrous the idea that the tournament is somehow less than it could be because it doesn't take the "best" 32 teams is.  We're only taking 5-6 teams that are supposed to be the best of the rest, and they almost never get really deep or pose a big challenge to one of the powerful teams that they might lose to.  Despite the annual crow-fest about how the AQs water down the tournament and crowd out "better" teams, the reality is that we're not leaving out serious contenders- even with so few at-large teams.

I don't know what relevance this all has but I am pretty sure the data does not say Pool C teams are any worse than any other random AQ qualifier and, without having taken a deep dive, it may actually support the idea that Pool C teams make the tournament field stronger.

That's a separate point.  I don't think anybody is arguing that UW-Platteville isn't better than Plymouth State.  My point was simply that if the 5-6 Pool C teams that do get picked, aren't regularly winning championships or competing strongly with the teams that do, then nobody is being disadvantaged by the AQ system.  We're still getting the proper champion without having to wonder about what might have happened if we kicked  Western New England out and put Wheaton in.  That kind of thing hasn't changed the endgame ever since AQs started in 1999. 
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Offline bluestreak66

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Re: Pool C - 2017
« Reply #299 on: November 28, 2017, 10:48:46 am »
I think what's interesting as you look at that table and see that, with very rare exceptions, do Pool C teams get really deep in the tournament is you start to get a sense at how ludicrous the idea that the tournament is somehow less than it could be because it doesn't take the "best" 32 teams is.  We're only taking 5-6 teams that are supposed to be the best of the rest, and they almost never get really deep or pose a big challenge to one of the powerful teams that they might lose to.  Despite the annual crow-fest about how the AQs water down the tournament and crowd out "better" teams, the reality is that we're not leaving out serious contenders- even with so few at-large teams.

I don't know what relevance this all has but I am pretty sure the data does not say Pool C teams are any worse than any other random AQ qualifier and, without having taken a deep dive, it may actually support the idea that Pool C teams make the tournament field stronger.

That's a separate point.  I don't think anybody is arguing that UW-Platteville isn't better than Plymouth State.  My point was simply that if the 5-6 Pool C teams that do get picked, aren't regularly winning championships or competing strongly with the teams that do, then nobody is being disadvantaged by the AQ system.  We're still getting the proper champion without having to wonder about what might have happened if we kicked  Western New England out and put Wheaton in.  That kind of thing hasn't changed the endgame ever since AQs started in 1999.
Not only that, what makes the lower levels of NCAA football so fun (DIII through FCS) is that, by virtue of the AQ system, every team has a path to the championship. That's not to say all teams have the same chance of of winning (UMHB has a better chance than someone like Earlham), but even lowly Earlham breaks camp with a shot to win it all if they can win enough games. Taking that away to put more teams in, who, as Wally said, strictly speaking are better, but still don't have a really great chance of winning either, would debase what makes a large playoff system so fun and rewarding for both fans and players.
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