Author Topic: 2018 Bracketology  (Read 1879 times)

Offline spwood

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2018 Bracketology
« on: March 02, 2018, 08:40:23 am »
Since I know you aren't busy or anything, guys, I was wondering if a third women's bracketology was in the works this week?  I don't always comment on them, but I definitely always read them...

Steve Wood

Offline spwood

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Re: 2018 Bracketology
« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2018, 08:44:09 am »
Homer question:

I was just looking at the comparison between Norwich and Plattsburgh.  Norwich has a slight lead in WIN (by one game) and RNK (Plattsburgh has one more loss).  Plattsburgh has a sizable lead in SOS.  Is it complete homerism to think that the NCAA usually weighs a large SOS lead more favorably than they are here?

Offline Paul J

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Re: 2018 Bracketology
« Reply #2 on: March 02, 2018, 10:45:37 am »
The SOS differential between Norwich and Plattsburgh is .518 v .549.  Neither is a real anomaly high or low and with so few losses on each teams sheet I think it loses some weight.  You could make a case for either team but the reality is Norwich has a slightly better record and the SOS isn't enough to tip the rating up or down. 

If there are no upsets the ratings look pretty stable at the top in the east.  With the Adrian travel "problem" the east coast team get a much easier path to the frozen four than the west.  His prediction of a 2 seed in the east drawing a 4 seed is pretty spot on.  The 2 should draw the 3 but with the 9th team and Adrian's travel issue the west gets the short end of the stick with the top three seeds fighting for 1 frozen four berth.  The only hope for the west to avoid this is for Adrian to be upset in their conference tourney and not get an A pool bid.

This year being a 1 or 2 seed in the east is a good place to be.  You get the lower ranked teams in your regional and a pretty clear path to the Frozen Four which will likely have 3 of 4 from the east this year.

Offline spwood

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Re: 2018 Bracketology
« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2018, 11:09:53 am »
The SOS differential between Norwich and Plattsburgh is .518 v .549.  Neither is a real anomaly high or low and with so few losses on each teams sheet I think it loses some weight.  You could make a case for either team but the reality is Norwich has a slightly better record and the SOS isn't enough to tip the rating up or down. 

If there are no upsets the ratings look pretty stable at the top in the east.  With the Adrian travel "problem" the east coast team get a much easier path to the frozen four than the west.  His prediction of a 2 seed in the east drawing a 4 seed is pretty spot on.  The 2 should draw the 3 but with the 9th team and Adrian's travel issue the west gets the short end of the stick with the top three seeds fighting for 1 frozen four berth.  The only hope for the west to avoid this is for Adrian to be upset in their conference tourney and not get an A pool bid.

This year being a 1 or 2 seed in the east is a good place to be.  You get the lower ranked teams in your regional and a pretty clear path to the Frozen Four which will likely have 3 of 4 from the east this year.

Except the SOS difference is bigger than you state:  It's .610 to .529 right now and Plattsburgh will get a better boost (less of a hit?) to their SOS with their championship game (against Oswego) than Norwich will (against UMass-Boston).

Offline Bartman

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Re: 2018 Bracketology
« Reply #4 on: March 02, 2018, 12:19:21 pm »
Do you think William Smith has a chance of gaining a Pool C if they win their tournament, including  wins over Stevenson and  Elmira...they are 0-1-1 against Elmira with a one goal loss, so it is possible. But with only 2 Pool C's can they make it if Conn Colleges loses in the first round of the NESCAC? It would be great for the 4 year old program .
When it's third and ten, you can take the milk drinkers and I'll take the whiskey drinkers.”
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Offline spwood

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Re: 2018 Bracketology
« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2018, 02:21:46 pm »
Do you think William Smith has a chance of gaining a Pool C if they win their tournament, including  wins over Stevenson and  Elmira...they are 0-1-1 against Elmira with a one goal loss, so it is possible. But with only 2 Pool C's can they make it if Conn Colleges loses in the first round of the NESCAC? It would be great for the 4 year old program .

William Smith has a huge hill to climb since they aren't even ranked right now.  I would say they have almost no shot.  It'll be a nice cap to their season, but it would end even with the league championship.

Offline Bartman

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Re: 2018 Bracketology
« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2018, 05:26:57 pm »
Do you think William Smith has a chance of gaining a Pool C if they win their tournament, including  wins over Stevenson and  Elmira...they are 0-1-1 against Elmira with a one goal loss, so it is possible. But with only 2 Pool C's can they make it if Conn Colleges loses in the first round of the NESCAC? It would be great for the 4 year old program .

William Smith has a huge hill to climb since they aren't even ranked right now.  I would say they have almost no shot.  It'll be a nice cap to their season, but it would end even with the league championship.
Thanks.Makes sense with so few spots available, although just winning the league tournament would be nice .
When it's third and ten, you can take the milk drinkers and I'll take the whiskey drinkers.”
― Max McGee Green Bay Packers Super Bowl I
“I never graduated college, but I was only there for two terms – Truman’s and Eisenhower’s” – Alex Karras

Offline spwood

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Re: 2018 Bracketology
« Reply #7 on: March 03, 2018, 11:33:23 am »
Do you think William Smith has a chance of gaining a Pool C if they win their tournament, including  wins over Stevenson and  Elmira...they are 0-1-1 against Elmira with a one goal loss, so it is possible. But with only 2 Pool C's can they make it if Conn Colleges loses in the first round of the NESCAC? It would be great for the 4 year old program .

William Smith has a huge hill to climb since they aren't even ranked right now.  I would say they have almost no shot.  It'll be a nice cap to their season, but it would end even with the league championship.

It would be a HUGE deal to win a league championship.  How long have they had a team?
Thanks.Makes sense with so few spots available, although just winning the league tournament would be nice .

Offline Bartman

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Re: 2018 Bracketology
« Reply #8 on: March 03, 2018, 02:34:42 pm »
Do you think William Smith has a chance of gaining a Pool C if they win their tournament, including  wins over Stevenson and  Elmira...they are 0-1-1 against Elmira with a one goal loss, so it is possible. But with only 2 Pool C's can they make it if Conn Colleges loses in the first round of the NESCAC? It would be great for the 4 year old program .

William Smith has a huge hill to climb since they aren't even ranked right now.  I would say they have almost no shot.  It'll be a nice cap to their season, but it would end even with the league championship.

It would be a HUGE deal to win a league championship.  How long have they had a team?
Thanks.Makes sense with so few spots available, although just winning the league tournament would be nice .
This is the fourth year and the goalie Maggie Salmon has been there all four years and keeps them in every game .
When it's third and ten, you can take the milk drinkers and I'll take the whiskey drinkers.”
― Max McGee Green Bay Packers Super Bowl I
“I never graduated college, but I was only there for two terms – Truman’s and Eisenhower’s” – Alex Karras

Offline spwood

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Re: 2018 Bracketology
« Reply #9 on: March 05, 2018, 02:17:16 pm »
            NOR     PLT
WIN      .911    .889 (slight edge to Norwich)
SOS      .534    .613 (huge edge to Plattsburgh)
RNK      .688    .643 (slight edge to Norwich)
H2H      .500    .500 (complete wash!)

I was still hoping Plattsburgh might get the #1 position - I won't be able to make the trip to Northfield if both teams win this weekend!