Author Topic: New York Region 2018  (Read 4566 times)

Online Caz Bombers

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #45 on: May 12, 2018, 09:44:13 pm »
Ithaca and Union punched their tickets today after long dramatic days of baseball.

I assume Cortland is a mortal lock for Pool C and let's keep our fingers crossed for Fisher and/or Stevens to get in as well.

Offline airball55

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #46 on: May 13, 2018, 09:07:45 am »
I think fisher still has a shot.  Their sos is really a no brainer and with 29 wins will be an interesting team to discuss.

Offline John McGraw

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #47 on: May 13, 2018, 10:23:46 am »
Pool A
Empire 8 - Ithaca
Liberty League - Union
Skyline - St. Joseph's (LI)
SUNYAC - Oswego

Pool C
Empire 8 - Stevens/St John Fisher
SUNYAC - Cortland

In the last regional rankings that were released, Cortland was slotted first and Oswego second. Based on the fact that neither team played this weekend, I gather those two will not change and that Cortland will be a one seed in Auburn. Cortland 7-5 vs regionally ranked teams (final published rankings), Oswego was 8-9 against regionally ranked opponents.

Does St. John Fisher jump Stevens in the rankings? I think one of the two may get in, depending on the national picture, but probably not both as the region as a whole is not strong enough for one conference to grab three bids. That said, another league, the NJAC, may very well get three teams into the NCAA tournament as it has three teams in the top 20 SOS - Rowan, TCNJ and Ramapo. Rutgers Camden may also have a shot. Rowan will be the NJAC's Pool A entrant.

Comparing St. John Fisher & Stevens
*In final published regional rankings, Stevens 3, St John Fisher 4
Record: St. John Fisher 29-16, Stevens 26-17
Head-to-Head: Stevens 3-1
SOS: St. John Fisher 28, Stevens 81
Record vs Regionally-Ranked: St John Fisher 9-14, Stevens 8-7*
*Also went 1-1 against previously ranked William Paterson and NYU. NYU was ranked for a while before falling out last week.
*Stevens finished the season 7-3 in its last 10, St. John Fisher went 5-5.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2018, 10:27:01 am by John McGraw »

Offline airball55

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #48 on: May 13, 2018, 02:55:55 pm »
After researching it more i believe fisher is a lock. With a sos of 22 on the ncaa site and 29 wins they actually could be a 3 seed somewhere.  The ncaa has said to play tough schedules...and they have. Cortland was at 155, and based on what they played non league, honestly should also be on the bubble at beat. But, i would imagine history will help them. Stevens most likely wont be considered. My personal opinion but the numbers are certainly in fishers favor

Offline Bombers798891

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #49 on: May 14, 2018, 10:00:17 am »
Posted without comment:

In Ithaca's four games in the E8 tournament, there were 18 HRs hit. In the 7 games total, there were 23 HRs

Offline airball55

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #50 on: May 14, 2018, 11:07:06 am »
Wow, the field and the committee certainly fooled me lol.
1. When was the last time two teams had a top 25 schedule and 29 wins and did not get in?  If I am Case Western And Fisher, I have to wonder this aloud
2. Cortland...a 1? Thank god they played Oswego 5 times in the last couple of weeks or the SOS really would have been a joke. With an SOS in the 150's this was shocking.  Honestly, per previous seasons and a great D3 podcast...I honestly thought they were a bubble team.  If I am a team like Fisher, maybe I don't schedule Keystone, Kean, etc...load up on Wells, Alfred St., Caz, etc... Also, Oswego gets shipped as does the other top NY teams.  so much for proximity concerns.  This was a bigger surprise to me than the two teams above not getting in.

Odd.  I defer to Dr. John Mcgraw to rebut this LOL.  If Cortland is a 1, St. Johns of Minn. who had as many wins and less losses with a similar SOS, also has a legitimate claim.

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #51 on: May 14, 2018, 11:49:17 am »
Wow, the field and the committee certainly fooled me lol.
1. When was the last time two teams had a top 25 schedule and 29 wins and did not get in?  If I am Case Western And Fisher, I have to wonder this aloud
2. Cortland...a 1? Thank god they played Oswego 5 times in the last couple of weeks or the SOS really would have been a joke. With an SOS in the 150's this was shocking.  Honestly, per previous seasons and a great D3 podcast...I honestly thought they were a bubble team.  If I am a team like Fisher, maybe I don't schedule Keystone, Kean, etc...load up on Wells, Alfred St., Caz, etc... Also, Oswego gets shipped as does the other top NY teams.  so much for proximity concerns.  This was a bigger surprise to me than the two teams above not getting in.

Odd.  I defer to Dr. John Mcgraw to rebut this LOL.  If Cortland is a 1, St. Johns of Minn. who had as many wins and less losses with a similar SOS, also has a legitimate claim.
St John's had a SOS of #171 and were only 2-3 against regionally ranked teams.

To get into Pool C conversation once they were at the table, a team needed to have an SOS of better than about 70 and to have played at least 10 to 15 games against regionally ranked opponents.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2018, 12:22:34 pm by Ralph Turner »

Offline airball55

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #52 on: May 14, 2018, 12:04:39 pm »
Fair enough Ralph, then, how does that explain Cortland?  155 SOS.  And, Fisher for instance led the country in games against region ranked teams?  Confusing

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #53 on: May 14, 2018, 12:28:29 pm »
Fair enough Ralph, then, how does that explain Cortland?  155 SOS.  And, Fisher for instance led the country in games against region ranked teams?  Confusing
If you read the Mock Selection that Jim wrote, Cortland was on the table and passed over for the first 11 rounds. They had a 7-5 record against regionally ranked opponents, so the weakness in the SUNYAC and other non-conference games was offset.

By my quick review, Cortland went 2-0 against Salisbury, Roanoke 0-1, Camden 1-0; JHU 0-1; Ithaca 1-0; Oswego 3-2.

Thanks for the question.

Offline airball55

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #54 on: May 14, 2018, 12:36:49 pm »
That certainly comes into play and I have no problem with the Dragons being in...a one seed was a shock to me though.  Thanks Ralph!

Offline John McGraw

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #55 on: May 14, 2018, 12:49:56 pm »
Wow, the field and the committee certainly fooled me lol.
1. When was the last time two teams had a top 25 schedule and 29 wins and did not get in?  If I am Case Western And Fisher, I have to wonder this aloud
2. Cortland...a 1? Thank god they played Oswego 5 times in the last couple of weeks or the SOS really would have been a joke. With an SOS in the 150's this was shocking.  Honestly, per previous seasons and a great D3 podcast...I honestly thought they were a bubble team.  If I am a team like Fisher, maybe I don't schedule Keystone, Kean, etc...load up on Wells, Alfred St., Caz, etc... Also, Oswego gets shipped as does the other top NY teams.  so much for proximity concerns.  This was a bigger surprise to me than the two teams above not getting in.

Odd.  I defer to Dr. John Mcgraw to rebut this LOL.  If Cortland is a 1, St. Johns of Minn. who had as many wins and less losses with a similar SOS, also has a legitimate claim.

Fisher went 9-14 against regionally ranked opponents and produced a strong strength of schedule. While the number of games is large and nine wins is good, the record is under .500 and there are double-digit losses. Heading into the conference tournament, Fisher closed the regular season 5-5 in its last 10 games with a 1-4 record in the final week. And while Fisher beat Stevens in the conference tournament, the Cardinals also lost twice to Ithaca which began the week lower in the regional rankings. St. John Fisher also had a losing record versus Stevens overall, 1-3.

In terms of common opponents, Cortland was 3-2 against Oswego while Fisher went 1-1. Cortland was 1-0 against Ithaca, Fisher went 2-3 (EDIT - 3-3). Both beat Canton, Elmira and Rochester. Outside of the region, Fisher beat Johns Hopkins while Cortland lost to JHU.

It should be noted that Cortland was 7-5 in games against regionally ranked opponents. Cortland also went 8-2 in its final 10 games and was 26-5 in its final 31 games between the regular season and the conference tournament.

Keep in mind, this isn't a head-to-head decision for the committee between Cortland and Fisher. In the regional rankings prior to this weekend, Cortland was first and Fisher was fourth. Fisher was in the mix against other teams around the nation not just teams in the region. Stronger conferences ended up taking multiple bids (NJAC, OAC, ASC) and some upsets kept out teams that in other years may have gotten into the tournament. Offhand, a result such as Concordia (Chicago) not winning the NACC tournament and taking up a Pool C selection could have knocked Fisher out.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2018, 01:33:39 pm by John McGraw »

Offline airball55

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #56 on: May 14, 2018, 01:08:53 pm »
John, I am not comparing Fisher and Cortland.  I am surprised at the one seed for Cortland for sure.  As for record in last 10, when did this become a criteria?  Most teams are playing conference opponents in those games and can't control those records.  This makes no sense to me.  And, if that was a criteria, then teams that have openings, like Fisher should NEVER play Keystone for instance.  Also, Fisher went 3-3 against Ithaca :).  I just don't see Cortland as a one with that SOS, only 12 region ranked teams, and, if we considering the end of season, an absolute butt whoopin by Oswego.  Thanks guys!!

Offline Bombers798891

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #57 on: May 14, 2018, 01:25:02 pm »
I just don't see Cortland as a one with that SOS, only 12 region ranked teams, and, if we considering the end of season, an absolute butt whoopin by Oswego. 

Speaking of late season whoopings from Oswego, I'm surprised the E8 tournament could start on time, given that the top of the 3rd in the Fisher-Oswego game required 27 pitching changes and lasted for a day and a half.  ;)

Offline John McGraw

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #58 on: May 14, 2018, 01:29:30 pm »
John, I am not comparing Fisher and Cortland.  I am surprised at the one seed for Cortland for sure.  As for record in last 10, when did this become a criteria?  Most teams are playing conference opponents in those games and can't control those records.  This makes no sense to me.  And, if that was a criteria, then teams that have openings, like Fisher should NEVER play Keystone for instance.  Also, Fisher went 3-3 against Ithaca :).  I just don't see Cortland as a one with that SOS, only 12 region ranked teams, and, if we considering the end of season, an absolute butt whoopin by Oswego.  Thanks guys!!

You're right, Fisher was 3-3 against Ithaca.

PRIMARY CRITERIA
The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests leading up to NCAA championships); all criteria listed will
be evaluated (not listed in priority order).
● Win-loss percentage against Division III opponents.
● Division III head-to-head competition.
● Results versus common Division III opponents.
● Results versus ranked Division III opponents as established by the rankings at the time of selection.
● Division III strength of schedule.
Win-loss percentage last 25% of the season (if applicable) - Not a huge deal but certainly playing well at the end of the season is a benefit.

Actual game score does not come into play. The folks on the committee are human but margin of victory is not a criteria. Also, Cortland was first in the last published NY region ranking. It is natural that they would be a 1 or 2 seed in Auburn based on this. Looking at the other top four seeded teams in Auburn, only Cortland was a number one regionally ranked team. Salisbury and USM were both ranked second in their respective regions and Baldwin Wallace was 8th in the Mideast. As such, Cortland gets the 1 seed. The field among the top four is stacked and I very easily can see any one of those teams advancing to the World Series.

Offline BigPoppa

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Re: New York Region 2018
« Reply #59 on: May 14, 2018, 01:31:04 pm »
John, I am not comparing Fisher and Cortland.  I am surprised at the one seed for Cortland for sure.  As for record in last 10, when did this become a criteria?  Most teams are playing conference opponents in those games and can't control those records. This makes no sense to me.  And, if that was a criteria, then teams that have openings, like Fisher should NEVER play Keystone for instance.  Also, Fisher went 3-3 against Ithaca :).  I just don't see Cortland as a one with that SOS, only 12 region ranked teams, and, if we considering the end of season, an absolute butt whoopin by Oswego.  Thanks guys!!

They actually have COMPLETE control of those records. Schedule tough opponents, Win games, get selected.
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