Author Topic: 2019 NCAA Tournament  (Read 42422 times)

Offline Titan Q

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #105 on: February 24, 2019, 01:25:29 pm »
In thinking about national seeding and potential hosts, I've tried to seed the top 16...actually top 18 since UW-Oshkosh and Amherst women will almost certainly be hosting.

1. (W) Whitman: .963, 26-1/.563/5-1
2. (MA) Christopher Newport: .893, 25-3/.549/7-3
3. (W) Nebraska Wesleyan: .963, 26-1/.575/2-1
4. (NE) Amherst: .852, 23-4/.568/8-3  *can't host/women

5. (C) Augustana: .889, 24-3/.547/8-3
6. (S) Randolph-Macon: .926, 25-2/.535/6-2
7. (MA) Swarthmore: .889, 24-3/.536/5-1
8. (NE) Hamilton: .852, 23-4/.553/4-4

9. (C) UW-Oshkosh: .885, 23-3/.542/3-3 *can't host/women
10. (W) Loras: .778, 21-6/.587/2-2
11. (MA) Rowan: .769, 20-6/.560/9-3
12. (W) St. John's: .852, 23-4/.534/4-2

13. (E) Oswego State: .815, 22-5/.532/8-4
14. (GL) Wittenberg: .815, 22-5/.545/6-3
15. (C) North Central: .815, 22-5/.543/5-3
16. (GL) Marietta: .769, 20-6/.549/6-4
--------------
17*. (NE) Nichols: .926, 25-2/.525/4-2
18*. (NE) Williams: .769, 20-6/.598/6-5

In a perfect D3 bracket world, I think those 16 should host.

Other strong host resumes
19. (GL) Wooster: .821, 23-5/.543/3-4
20. (E) Rochester: .800, 20-5/.539/5-2
21. (S) Emory: .800, 20-5, .564/2-4
22. (NE) MIT: .846, 22-4/.555/1-0
23. (S) Centre: .840, 21-4/.526/1-1


Slotting those by region...

Atlantic
11. (MA) Rowan: .769, 20-6/.560/9-3

Central
5. (C) Augustana: .889, 24-3/.547/8-3
9. (C) UW-Oshkosh: .885, 23-3/.542/3-3
15. (C) North Central: .815, 22-5/.543/5-3

East
13. (E) Oswego State: .815, 22-5/.532/8-4
20. (E) Rochester: .800, 20-5/.539/5-2

Great Lakes
14. (GL) Wittenberg: .815, 22-5/.545/6-3
16. (GL) Marietta: .769, 20-6/.549/6-4
19. (GL) Wooster: .821, 23-5/.543/3-4

Middle Atlantic
2. (MA) Christopher Newport: .893, 25-3/.549/7-3
7. (MA) Swarthmore: .889, 24-3/.536/5-1

Northeast
4. (NE) Amherst: .846, 22-4/.568/7-3 
8. (NE) Hamilton: .885, 23-3/.553/4-3
17. (NE) Nichols: .926, 25-2/.525/4-2
18. (NE) Williams: .769, 20-6/.598/6-5
22. (NE) MIT: .846, 22-4/.555/1-0

South
6. (S) Randolph-Macon: .926, 25-2/.535/6-2
21. (S) Emory: .800, 20-5, .564/2-4
23. (S) Centre: .840, 21-4/.526/1-1

West
1. (W) Whitman: .963, 26-1/.563/5-1
3. (W) Nebraska Wesleyan: .963, 26-1/.575/2-1
10. (W) Loras: .778, 21-6/.587/2-2
12. (W) St. John's: .852, 23-4/.534/4-2


 
I have 7 of the top 16 being from the West + Central regions.  If we assume Oshkosh can't host, it's 6 of 16. 

This illustrates the bracketing challenge - and fear of a 10-year anniversary Bracket of Death - I started bringing up in early-January.  I think all 6 of those teams (Whitman, Nebraska Wesleyan, Augustana, Loras, St. John's, North Central) deserve to host on the first weekend...but I don't think it's possible to make happen.  And then I'm really concerned about the pairings for weekend #2 and how to keep the top West + Central teams from meeting too early.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2019, 02:29:50 pm by Titan Q »

Offline Titan Q

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #106 on: February 24, 2019, 02:15:15 pm »
Based on what I have above, logical bracket quadrants could be...

#1 Whitman Quadrant
1. (W) Whitman: .963, 26-1/.563/5-1
16. (GL) Marietta: .769, 20-6/.549/6-4

9. (C) UW-Oshkosh: .885, 23-3/.542/3-3 *can't host/women
10. (W) Loras: .778, 21-6/.587/2-2

#4 Amherst Quadrant
4. (NE) Amherst: .852, 23-4/.568/8-3 
13. (E) Oswego State: .815, 22-5/.532/8-4

7. (MA) Swarthmore: .889, 24-3/.536/5-1
8. (NE) Hamilton: .852, 23-4/.553/4-4



#2 Christopher Newport Quadrant
2. (MA) Christopher Newport: .893, 25-3/.549/7-3
15. (C) North Central: .815, 22-5/.543/5-3

6. (S) Randolph-Macon: .926, 25-2/.535/6-2
11. (MA) Rowan: .769, 20-6/.560/9-3


#3 Nebraska Wesleyan Quadrant
3. (W) Nebraska Wesleyan: .963, 26-1/.575/2-1
14. (GL) Wittenberg: .815, 22-5/.545/6-3

5. (C) Augustana: .889, 24-3/.547/8-3
12. (W) St. John's: .852, 23-4/.534/4-2

Offline With Age Comes Wisdom?

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #107 on: February 24, 2019, 02:19:24 pm »
Again, I may be showing my lack of knowledge here, but I was under the impression that the Amherst women would be an absolute host thereby probably making it difficult if not impossible for the men to host as well?  Am I showing the question mark in my name again? ;)

Offline Titan Q

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #108 on: February 24, 2019, 02:24:26 pm »
Again, I may be showing my lack of knowledge here, but I was under the impression that the Amherst women would be an absolute host thereby probably making it difficult if not impossible for the men to host as well?  Am I showing the question mark in my name again? ;)

I am not sure what all the women's bracket implications are.  I have just heard about UW-Oshkosh. 

Maybe someone can confirm?

Offline NEsoccerfan20

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #109 on: February 24, 2019, 02:27:30 pm »
Not showing a lack of knowledge at all.... that would be correct. With this year being a women's preference year, the Amherst women will most likely host first weekend meaning the men can't. It will be interesting to see what schools in new england host pods with Amherst unable to and Nichols (I'm assuming not able to either because of their tiny gym). I'd presume it would be Hamilton,  and then any of MIT/Williams/Keene State possibly?

Offline Titan Q

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #110 on: February 24, 2019, 02:31:02 pm »
Not showing a lack of knowledge at all.... that would be correct. With this year being a women's preference year, the Amherst women will most likely host first weekend meaning the men can't. It will be interesting to see what schools in new england host pods with Amherst unable to and Nichols (I'm assuming not able to either because of their tiny gym). I'd presume it would be Hamilton,  and then any of MIT/Williams/Keene State possibly?

If Nichols can't host (is that confirmed?), I'd say Williams is next in line there to replace Amherst.

Offline NEsoccerfan20

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #111 on: February 24, 2019, 02:34:14 pm »
Titan Q- no idea about Nichols. I'm just assuming because their gym holds less than 1000.

Offline With Age Comes Wisdom?

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #112 on: February 24, 2019, 02:42:14 pm »
The funny thing about Hamilton is that it's an East school wolf in Northeast clothes...   Think that the Cont's definitely deserve to host (maybe a Morrisville, Plattsburg, Skidmore type of pod)...wishful think on my part.lol

Offline hickory_cornhusker

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #113 on: February 24, 2019, 02:46:26 pm »
Based on what I have above, logical bracket quadrants could be...

#1 Whitman Quadrant
1. (W) Whitman: .963, 26-1/.563/5-1
16. (GL) Marietta: .769, 20-6/.549/6-4

9. (C) UW-Oshkosh: .885, 23-3/.542/3-3 *can't host/women
10. (W) Loras: .778, 21-6/.587/2-2

#4 Amherst Quadrant
4. (NE) Amherst: .852, 23-4/.568/8-3 
13. (E) Oswego State: .815, 22-5/.532/8-4

7. (MA) Swarthmore: .889, 24-3/.536/5-1
8. (NE) Hamilton: .852, 23-4/.553/4-4



#2 Christopher Newport Quadrant
2. (MA) Christopher Newport: .893, 25-3/.549/7-3
15. (C) North Central: .815, 22-5/.543/5-3

6. (S) Randolph-Macon: .926, 25-2/.535/6-2
11. (MA) Rowan: .769, 20-6/.560/9-3


#3 Nebraska Wesleyan Quadrant
3. (W) Nebraska Wesleyan: .963, 26-1/.575/2-1
14. (GL) Wittenberg: .815, 22-5/.545/6-3

5. (C) Augustana: .889, 24-3/.547/8-3
12. (W) St. John's: .852, 23-4/.534/4-2

Flipping 15 North Central with 16 Marietta saves a flight to Christopher Newport and an additional flight if the NCAA doesn’t put up the money for flying three teams to Whitman the second weekend.

Edit: Flipping 14 Wittenberg with 15 North Central would cut down two flights as well but it places Augustana and North Central in the same quadrant which would be nice if it can be avoided.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2019, 02:51:28 pm by hickory_cornhusker »

Offline Titan Q

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #114 on: February 24, 2019, 03:09:35 pm »
Good call, Hickory...I made that first flip...


#1 Whitman Quadrant
1. (W) Whitman: .963, 26-1/.563/5-1
15. (C) North Central: .815, 22-5/.543/5-3


9. (C) UW-Oshkosh: .885, 23-3/.542/3-3
10. (W) Loras: .778, 21-6/.587/2-2

#4 Amherst Quadrant
4. (NE) Amherst: .852, 23-4/.568/8-3 
13. (E) Oswego State: .815, 22-5/.532/8-4

7. (MA) Swarthmore: .889, 24-3/.536/5-1
8. (NE) Hamilton: .852, 23-4/.553/4-4



#2 Christopher Newport Quadrant
2. (MA) Christopher Newport: .893, 25-3/.549/7-3
16. (GL) Marietta: .769, 20-6/.549/6-4

6. (S) Randolph-Macon: .893, 25-3/.534/6-3
11. (MA) Rowan: .769, 20-6/.560/9-3


#3 Nebraska Wesleyan Quadrant
3. (W) Nebraska Wesleyan: .963, 26-1/.575/2-1
14. (GL) Wittenberg: .815, 22-5/.545/6-3

5. (C) Augustana: .889, 24-3/.547/8-3
12. (W) St. John's: .852, 23-4/.534/4-2
« Last Edit: February 24, 2019, 03:12:39 pm by Titan Q »

Offline ronk

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #115 on: February 24, 2019, 03:17:34 pm »
Titan Q- no idea about Nichols. I'm just assuming because their gym holds less than 1000.

There's no capacity limitation for the regional weekend, only the sectional weekend.

Offline kiko

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #116 on: February 24, 2019, 03:37:48 pm »
Amherst women are 23-3 and were second behind undefeated Bowdoin in the most recent regional rankings.  They picked up their third loss to #3 Tufts after those rankings.

They are also coming off a two-year unbeaten run that could I expect influence things on the margins if they are being compared to a team from another region.

Net/net, from my uneducated POV, they will slip but not fall more than a slot or two in their regional ranking, and there is a good chance they will host the first weekend.

Offline KnightSlappy

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #117 on: February 24, 2019, 03:41:41 pm »
I don't think we can pull enough teams west to support the number of "deserving" West/Central hosts. North Central and Loras are probably on the road. (I'm personally slotting St. John's ahead of Loras but could be convinced otherwise).
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Offline kiko

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #118 on: February 24, 2019, 03:56:57 pm »
I don't think we can pull enough teams west to support the number of "deserving" West/Central hosts. North Central and Loras are probably on the road. (I'm personally slotting St. John's ahead of Loras but could be convinced otherwise).

I think North Central likely winds up on the road as they are the furthest East of the teams Titan Q mentioned.  Unless, that is, the committee can find a way to pair them with Eastern teams that are able to travel to the Western Suburbs of Chicago. (And places this pod in an Eastern quadrant.)

Whitman could potentially be set as a host for a pod in an Eastern quadrant, as a way to solve some of this logjam... you could send a bunch of island teams to the Pac Northwest since they will all be flying anyway, and then can pair that winner with Eastern teams for the second weekend.  Two reasons for this to be attractive: (1) if the winner of an island pod does not deserve to host the second weekend, you have mitigated the number of flights you'll need, and (2) if the winner of the island pod DOES deserve to host and the NCAA springs for three flights -- I'm not holding my breath on this -- then it doesn't matter whether those three flights originate from the Midwest or from somewhere in the Eastern time zone.


Offline Titan Q

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #119 on: February 24, 2019, 04:03:27 pm »
I don't think we can pull enough teams west to support the number of "deserving" West/Central hosts. North Central and Loras are probably on the road. (I'm personally slotting St. John's ahead of Loras but could be convinced otherwise).

I think between St. John's, North Central, and Loras two will host and one will get shut out. 

Seems like St. John's will pass Loras in the final West ranking...so my money would be on Loras to be the odd team out.