Author Topic: 2019 NCAA Tournament  (Read 42100 times)

Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #225 on: March 02, 2019, 12:32:48 am »
Emory would have had to fly to Wittenberg, whereas Guilford is drivable for all the schools.  This may have been a factor in Guilford hosting.

No ... Wittenberg couldn't host. They had a conflict with their gym this weekend. They were the #1 in the Great Lakes Region. The only reason they aren't hosting is because they couldn't. They would have shipped someone else (probably Marietta) to Guilford if Wittenberg was able to host.
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Offline Titan Q

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #226 on: March 02, 2019, 10:19:36 am »
The most "unfair" round of 32 games per the @D3Bubble rankings...

http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_top.html

- #1 Nebraska Wesleyan vs #12 St. Thomas

- #2 Whitman vs #13 Pomona-Pitzer

- #9 Swarthmore vs #17 MIT

- #14 North Central vs #19 Loras


Offline AO

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #227 on: March 02, 2019, 10:28:04 am »
The most "unfair" round of 32 games per the @D3Bubble rankings...

http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_top.html

- #1 Nebraska Wesleyan vs #12 St. Thomas

- #2 Whitman vs #13 Pomona-Pitzer

- #9 Swarthmore vs #17 MIT

- #14 North Central vs #19 Loras
I think you forgot to list #4 St. John's vs #5 UW-Oshkosh   ;D

Offline FCGrizzliesGrad

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #228 on: March 02, 2019, 10:53:45 am »
The most "unfair" round of 32 games per the @D3Bubble rankings...

http://www.fantastic50.net/d3h_top.html

- #1 Nebraska Wesleyan vs #12 St. Thomas

- #2 Whitman vs #13 Pomona-Pitzer

- #9 Swarthmore vs #17 MIT

- #14 North Central vs #19 Loras
#14 vs #19 is exactly the matchup you'd expect in this round. #1 vs #32 through #16 vs #17
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Offline Titan Q

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #229 on: March 02, 2019, 11:41:57 am »
#14 vs #19 is exactly the matchup you'd expect in this round. #1 vs #32 through #16 vs #17

Well sure, but you also have to look at the reality of the entire bracket.  Using @D3Bubble's rankings...

#1 Nebraska Wesleyan vs #12 St. Thomas
#2 Whitman vs #13 Pomona Pitzer
#3 Augustana vs #30 Capital
#5 UW-Oshkosh vs #74 Northwestern (MN)
#6 Randolph-Macon vs ##36 York (Pa)
#7 Christopher Newport vs #56 Alfred
#8 Amherst vs #34 Rochester
#9 Swarthmore vs #17 MIT
#11 Wittenberg vs #24 Guilford
#14 North Central vs #19 Loras
#15 Wooster vs #31 Wheaton
#18 Hamilton vs #61 Moravian
#19 Baldwin Wallace vs #45 Oswego State
#22 Williams vs (not in top 100) Gwynedd Mercy
#25 Marietta vs #62 Arcadia
#26 Nichols vs #40 Rowan

I consider the four I originally had - and then adding Wittenberg vs Guilford - as the most "unfair"/"too soon" matchups in this round.  In a perfect bracket world (which we will never have), those should be Sectional round matchups.

Offline Wooster Booster

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #230 on: March 02, 2019, 11:51:44 am »
#1 Nebraska Wesleyan vs #12 St. Thomas
#2 Whitman vs #13 Pomona Pitzer
#3 Augustana vs #30 Capital
#5 UW-Oshkosh vs #74 Northwestern (MN)
#6 Randolph-Macon vs ##36 York (Pa)
#7 Christopher Newport vs #56 Alfred
#8 Amherst vs #34 Rochester
#9 Swarthmore vs #17 MIT
#11 Wittenberg vs #24 Guilford
#14 North Central vs #19 Loras
#15 Wooster vs #31 Wheaton
#18 Hamilton vs #61 Moravian
#19 Baldwin Wallace vs #45 Oswego State
#22 Williams vs (not in top 100) Gwynedd Mercy
#25 Marietta vs #62 Arcadia
#26 Nichols vs #40 Rowan

So.  Let me put this forth to you expert prognosticators.  If the chalk holds in today's games, with all of the favorites winning, does Wooster have much of a chance of hosting in the next round?  Seems to me that they'd probably need Wittenberg to lose, providing that the Tigers have no more gym conflicts, etc.

Offline Titan Q

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #231 on: March 02, 2019, 11:54:16 am »
So.  Let me put this forth to you expert prognosticators.  If the chalk holds in today's games, with all of the favorites winning, does Wooster have much of a chance of hosting in the next round?  Seems to me that they'd probably need Wittenberg to lose, providing that the Tigers have no more gym conflicts, etc.

This is what I posted on the CCIW board...

-------------
Thinking of a Sectional that is:
- Augustana
- Wooster
- Marietta
- Baldwin Wallace

Wooster (500.0) and Marietta (603.0) can't bus to Rock Island.  I'm told the mileage cutoff is -- 499.9 bus, 500.0 flight. Baldwin Wallace (486.0) can. 

Baldwin Wallace is a zero flight option here.  Two flights vs zero would be a no-brainer.

Thinking of a Sectional that is:
- Augustana
- Wheaton
- Marietta
- Baldwin Wallace

Wheaton is three miles too far west to be a zero flight option - Marietta (502.0) can't bus to Wheaton.

But, again, Baldwin Wallace is a zero flight option.  Would top four overall seed Augustana be shipped to Baldwin Wallace to save one flight? Maybe.

Thinking of a Sectional that is:
- Augustana
- Wooster
- Marietta
- Oswego State (they host Baldwin Wallace tonight)

Augie would be two flights (Oswego State, Marietta)...Marietta and Oswego State would be just one flight (Augie).  I think Oswego State is a higher overall seed than Marietta...but that is close.

So Augustana does have some challenges in terms of hosting the Sectional, in that either winner of Oswego State vs Baldwin Wallace pulls the pod way east.

Here is the one Augie hosts for sure:
- Augustana
- Wheaton
- Marietta
- Oswego State

Two flights either way you slice it...highest seed (Augustana) wins.

When we know the four teams tonight, it will be easier to break down.

Official NCAA mileage calculator - https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/miles.

Offline Titan Q

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #232 on: March 02, 2019, 11:58:04 am »
Seems to me that they'd probably need Wittenberg to lose, providing that the Tigers have no more gym conflicts, etc.

Wittenberg is in the Nebraska Wesleyan quadrant...not the Augustana quadrant (where Wooster is).

Wittenberg isn't a factor for Wooster.

Offline Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #233 on: March 02, 2019, 12:01:52 pm »

The accountants are rooting for Witt, though - if they get through, Oshkosh can host everyone without flights.
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Offline y_jack_lok

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #234 on: March 02, 2019, 01:11:30 pm »
Looks like you haven't considered what might happen if Auguie and/or Marietta lose tonight.

Offline Titan Q

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #235 on: March 02, 2019, 02:21:09 pm »
Looks like you haven't considered what might happen if Auguie and/or Marietta lose tonight.

Augie and Marietta are such heavy favorites it seemed like an inefficient use of prognostication time.

I gotta believe both of those teams will win comfortably.

Offline Viking Mike

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #236 on: March 02, 2019, 02:47:15 pm »
So... if Wooster and Marrieta win tonight, how does NCAA determine who among the 4 Ohio/NY schools would host?

Both schools along with B/W and Oswego State are all under 500 miles of each other.  If Augie advances, and has to travel, do they put them in the gym of the next highest seed?  (Marietta or Oswego State)  or do they give it to the lowest seed (#4-Wooster) to give less advantage to the other higher seeds?  Or is it the most centrally located of the 3 schools? 








Offline Viking Mike

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #237 on: March 02, 2019, 02:50:25 pm »
Of course, if Wooster is the sectional host, Augie would get them next on their home floor.  Doesn't seem right.

Offline Titan Q

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #238 on: March 02, 2019, 03:15:16 pm »
So... if Wooster and Marrieta win tonight, how does NCAA determine who among the 4 Ohio/NY schools would host?

Both schools along with B/W and Oswego State are all under 500 miles of each other.  If Augie advances, and has to travel, do they put them in the gym of the next highest seed?  (Marietta or Oswego State)  or do they give it to the lowest seed (#4-Wooster) to give less advantage to the other higher seeds?  Or is it the most centrally located of the 3 schools?

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/basketball/d3/men/2018-19DIIIMBB_PreChampManual.pdf

The Championships Committee has prioritized the following site-selection criteria for all championships:
1. Complete bid;
2. Quality and availability of the facility and other necessary accommodations;
3. Geographical location (which may include such factors as rotation of sites, weather, accessibility and transportation costs);
4. Seeding; and
5. Attendance history, hosting history and revenue potential, which shall be considered necessary to assure fiscal responsibility.

------------

If it's:
- Augustana
- Wooster
- Marietta
- Oswego

The reality here, as Ryan Scott was alluding to on the CCIW board, is that even though Augustana to Wooster is 500.0 miles (or 501.0 whatever), Augie wouldn't actually fly to Wooster, OH...they would choose to bus.  It's just the easier way to go, all things considered.  So it seems like Wooster is the location where there are, in reality, zero flights.

Picking Wooster in this hypothetical scenario would purely be a geographic decision.  Because, as I see it, Wooster is the lowest seed of these four teams.  I think they stack up this way:
1. Augustana: .889/.544/8-3 (Central #1)
2. Oswego State: .815/.532/8-4 (East #1)
3. Marietta: .769/.549/6-4 (Great Lakes #2)
4. Wooster: .821/.543/3-4 (Great Lakes #3)

I'm confident that order is correct...the only question is between Oswego State and Marietta.  (That order could be flipped.)

In this scenario, do they:

A) Protect Augustana's overall top four seed status and pay for two flights (Oswego State, Marietta)?
B) Give it to the higher seed between Marietta and Oswego State? (Assuming one flight - Augustana.)
C) Give it to Wooster, assuming it is probably a zero flight option?

I think the answer is almost certainly B or C...and I guess I'd lean towards C (Wooster).

(Oh and by the way, if I'm Augie and they did that Wooster thing - assuming Augie would bus instead of fly - I'd stick it to the NCAA by flying.)

https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2019/02/men-regional-rankings-final
« Last Edit: March 02, 2019, 03:29:16 pm by Titan Q »

Offline Titan Q

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #239 on: March 02, 2019, 03:19:25 pm »
Note - "rotation of sites" could hurt Augustana.  They hosted a Sectional last year.  That could be a thing, who knows.

On the flip side, "revenue potential" could help - Augie is good for about 2200 people at Sectional games.

The site-selection criteria has a lot of flexibility built in...and we just don't know how a lot of that stuff plays out behind the scenes.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2019, 03:21:59 pm by Titan Q »