Author Topic: 2019 NCAA Tournament  (Read 36346 times)

Offline ronk

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #585 on: April 13, 2019, 12:10:16 pm »
Who are the "too-early" favorites to win the 2020 D3 National Championship?

 Here are the draft projections from the fantasy board of experts  ::) for next season:

Round 1
1. NCF - Oshkosh
2. Osprey - Swarthmore
3. Grizzlies - Wittenberg
4. ronk - Amherst
5. Hoops - North Central
6. Smitty - Emory
7. Greek - Middlebury
8. nescac1 - Wash U

Round 2
9. nescac1 - Wooster
10. Greek - Nebraska Wesleyan
11. Smitty - Augustana
12. Hoops - Nichols
13. ronk - Texas-Dallas
14. Grizzlies - Randolph-Macon
15. Osprey - St. Thomas
16. NCF - Hamilton

Offline WUPHF

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #586 on: April 14, 2019, 10:05:38 am »
I am not arguing against Oshkosh or Swarthmore, but a reminder: the Titans lose both Boots and Wittchow and the 60 minutes, 30 points (40% from three), rebounds, assists, steals and senior leadership.  Swarthmore loses Wiley.

By the way, Emory is a Final Four team.

Offline Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #587 on: April 14, 2019, 11:40:41 am »
Who are the "too-early" favorites to win the 2020 D3 National Championship?

I'm not sure why Oshkosh and Swarthmore wouldn't start next season ranked where they finished this one.  I can't think of a contending team, off the top of my head, that isn't going to have significant losses.  Maybe Wittenberg?  I know most of their best players were underclassmen.  Lots of teams will remain very good, but there will be questions all around.

Agree.  UW-Oshkosh #1 and Swarthmore #2 seems like a no-brainer to me in the preseason poll.

Where does a team like Whitman or NWU stand, for their loss total might not decline due to the significant decline in the Conference teamís strength? Are these two teams who will be top 5 all year? Top 10?

Whitman will be lower on talent, for sure, and definitely depth, but they're still going to be loaded with talent and perhaps having more defined roles will help the guys in them?  I don't think they have anyone on the level of Hewitt or Butler, but they've got a lot of really good players.  I think they'll be in the mix, but they'll have to prove themselves a bit.  They host St. Thomas in November, I believe, so that should be a good test for both teams.
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Offline CHalter33

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #588 on: April 16, 2019, 02:06:17 pm »
Who are the "too-early" favorites to win the 2020 D3 National Championship?

I'm not sure why Oshkosh and Swarthmore wouldn't start next season ranked where they finished this one.  I can't think of a contending team, off the top of my head, that isn't going to have significant losses.  Maybe Wittenberg?  I know most of their best players were underclassmen.  Lots of teams will remain very good, but there will be questions all around.

Agree.  UW-Oshkosh #1 and Swarthmore #2 seems like a no-brainer to me in the preseason poll.

Where does a team like Whitman or NWU stand, for their loss total might not decline due to the significant decline in the Conference teamís strength? Are these two teams who will be top 5 all year? Top 10?

Whitman will be lower on talent, for sure, and definitely depth, but they're still going to be loaded with talent and perhaps having more defined roles will help the guys in them?  I don't think they have anyone on the level of Hewitt or Butler, but they've got a lot of really good players.  I think they'll be in the mix, but they'll have to prove themselves a bit.  They host St. Thomas in November, I believe, so that should be a good test for both teams.

I will definitely be tuning into the Whitman vs. St. Thomas game. I know the 2019 season just ended but does anyone know of "big games" scheduled for the 2020 season? (Top 25 matchups)

Offline Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #589 on: April 16, 2019, 04:47:11 pm »
Who are the "too-early" favorites to win the 2020 D3 National Championship?

I'm not sure why Oshkosh and Swarthmore wouldn't start next season ranked where they finished this one.  I can't think of a contending team, off the top of my head, that isn't going to have significant losses.  Maybe Wittenberg?  I know most of their best players were underclassmen.  Lots of teams will remain very good, but there will be questions all around.

Agree.  UW-Oshkosh #1 and Swarthmore #2 seems like a no-brainer to me in the preseason poll.

Where does a team like Whitman or NWU stand, for their loss total might not decline due to the significant decline in the Conference teamís strength? Are these two teams who will be top 5 all year? Top 10?

Whitman will be lower on talent, for sure, and definitely depth, but they're still going to be loaded with talent and perhaps having more defined roles will help the guys in them?  I don't think they have anyone on the level of Hewitt or Butler, but they've got a lot of really good players.  I think they'll be in the mix, but they'll have to prove themselves a bit.  They host St. Thomas in November, I believe, so that should be a good test for both teams.

I will definitely be tuning into the Whitman vs. St. Thomas game. I know the 2019 season just ended but does anyone know of "big games" scheduled for the 2020 season? (Top 25 matchups)

It's a little early to know all the matchups.  Schools don't usually release schedules until after the academic year is out (at the earliest) - often it's when the SID gets back from vacation and gets them loaded on the site.  Coaches are a little more forthcoming (John Tauer told me about their early season Whitman-Whitworth double) when I did their tournament feature.  I've heard some good rumors of matchups, but nothing concrete as of yet.
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Offline fantastic50

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #590 on: April 19, 2019, 09:22:36 am »
In the 3rd annual Great Lakes Invitational, Dec. 28-29 at Wooster, the host Scots will play Whitworth and Keene State, while Marietta will face York (PA) and Salisbury.  Not all of those teams will be in the top 25, but they are still intriguing match-ups. 

https://twitter.com/OACBBallShow/status/1108534826754338816

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #591 on: April 19, 2019, 03:19:22 pm »
In the 3rd annual Great Lakes Invitational, Dec. 28-29 at Wooster, the host Scots will play Whitworth and Keene State, while Marietta will face York (PA) and Salisbury.  Not all of those teams will be in the top 25, but they are still intriguing match-ups. 

https://twitter.com/OACBBallShow/status/1108534826754338816
Those tourneys look to the target-rich for Regional Ranked Opponents

Offline Pat Coleman

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #592 on: April 19, 2019, 06:32:54 pm »
In the 3rd annual Great Lakes Invitational, Dec. 28-29 at Wooster, the host Scots will play Whitworth and Keene State, while Marietta will face York (PA) and Salisbury.  Not all of those teams will be in the top 25, but they are still intriguing match-ups. 

https://twitter.com/OACBBallShow/status/1108534826754338816

Does this supplant the Mose Hole tournament, or is it a double billing, so to speak? Wooster has always brought in great teams for the Mose Hole.
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Offline Fifth and Putnam

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #593 on: April 21, 2019, 11:03:46 am »
In the 3rd annual Great Lakes Invitational, Dec. 28-29 at Wooster, the host Scots will play Whitworth and Keene State, while Marietta will face York (PA) and Salisbury.  Not all of those teams will be in the top 25, but they are still intriguing match-ups. 

https://twitter.com/OACBBallShow/status/1108534826754338816

Does this supplant the Mose Hole tournament, or is it a double billing, so to speak? Wooster has always brought in great teams for the Mose Hole.

Double billing. It's a one off format change for the Great Lakes Invite.

Offline nescac1

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #594 on: April 22, 2019, 02:23:14 pm »
Regarding Oshkosh and Whitman, I too was initially thinking that Oshkosh lost enough from that backcourt to mean they should not be the prohibitive favorite heading into the season, but I had a change of heart after seeing some of them in the tourney.  They dominated most of the teams they played, and their frontcourt should easily be the best in the country if healthy, just an impossible group for anyone to match up against.  The guards are a big loss, but Peterson had the look of a future all-American in the minutes he played, an athletic frosh who can play really well as a two-way role player on the biggest stage like that (including some great D vs. Francis if I recall) typically emerges as a prime time player when thrust into a bigger role  They also return Vlotho and add a loaded recruiting class including an impressive-looking D2 transfer who should help right away and several top-20 Wisconsin recruits, one of whom is a guard.  Between that group and other guys who were probably buried on the bench behind a veteran backcourt, they should still have a very good, and deep, backcourt.  It also helps that most of the rest of WIAC looks (relatively) down right now with a lot of uncertainty, so Oshkosh should once again post a gaudy record in the best conference in the country. 

Meanwhile, looking at the rest of the Elite 8, Williams loses its big three, Christopher Newport loses by far its best guy plus another key player, Swarthmore loses its top perimeter player and isn't nearly as deep as Oshkosh, they really need to have good luck with injuries (although they too should be very good again), Nichols loses its all-American from a team that was very thin, Guilford loses two of its three best guys, Wheaton loses Francis, Augustana loses three elite guys plus some depth, and Marietta loses two of its top three scorers plus another starter (though from a very deep team).  Of the teams that made deep runs last year, Oshkosh looks to be the best positioned for a return engagement.  I too think Emory looks absolutely loaded next year, as do Amherst and North Central, but they all have a lot of ground to make up vs. how Oshkosh has played in the last two NCAA tourneys.  I actually think in the draft we collectively nailed what will very likely be most (at least 8-9, maybe all 10, although Midd might start out a few notches lower) of the preseason top ten (barring major recruit / transfer / injury / defection new) heading into the season.  Marietta probably sneaks in, perhaps bumping Midd out.  Maybe Guilford, CNU, or RMC squeezes in as well, all are top-20 teams for sure to start the season, but those three seem pretty closely grouped to me as all three lose important players.  The only thing that is certain is that Oshkosh and Swarthmore should and will be ranked 1-2 in that order for sure.  I felt like those ten teams plus the four others I just listed were the most obvious choices on paper, and after that, things start to get much more difficult to predict with either powerhouse teams who were decimated by graduation or unproven up-and-comers who return most of their rosters. 

Whitman on the other hand I'm more skeptical of.  There is still a lot of talent but they lose SO much to graduation, and part of what made them great was that they could throw waves and waves of really good players at you and wear you down over the course of the game.  Next year's team on the other hand has only around 5-6 proven guys coming back.  Austin Butler alone is a HUGE loss, he was a two-way monster and was critical to everything they did, especially on defense.  I also didn't see anyone remotely like Jacob-Jones on the roster in terms of interior finishing, he was a very important player for them.  And Stewart and Hewitt were both tremendous scorers.  Duckett and Vickers will be one of the better backcourt in the country, Osborn is a great shooter, but up front they don't return a lot.  Indeed, they return only 23 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 assists from their total team production in the season-ending loss to Williams.  That's not a ton, even considering a lot of talent on the bench could have played more minutes elsewhere. 
« Last Edit: April 22, 2019, 02:43:33 pm by nescac1 »

Offline Gregory Sager

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #595 on: April 22, 2019, 02:37:44 pm »
Whitman on the other hand I'm more skeptical of.  There is still a lot of talent but they lose SO much and part of what made them great was that they could throw waves and waves of really good players at you and wear you down over the course of the game.  Austin Butler alone is a HUGE loss, he was a two-way monster and was critical to everything they did, especially on defense.  I also didn't see anyone remotely like Jacob-Jones on the roster in terms of interior finishing, he was a very important player for them.  And Stewart and Hewitt were both tremendous scorers.  Duckett and Vickers will be one of the better backcourt in the country, but up front they don't return a lot.  They only return 23 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 assists from their total production in their season-ending loss to Williams.  That's not a ton.

Michael Gutierrez may have only played 12 minutes per game for Whitman last season, but the year before at Macalester he averaged 21.6 ppg and led the MIAC in scoring. Don't overlook him.
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Offline nescac1

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #596 on: April 22, 2019, 02:46:27 pm »
Just edited my post a bit as you were posting Greg :)!  Fair on Guiterrez, but still, he goes from being like the 11th or 12th guy to now probably the 3rd or 4th guy, reflective of just how much big-time talent Whitman lost to graduation.  And part of what made them so tough was their relentless physicality and rebounding, and without Butler and Jacobs-Jones, that element is missing.  Still probably a top-20 team, but not a top-5 or even top-10 one on paper in my view, unless they bring in a ton of big-time talent. 

Offline WUPHF

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #597 on: April 22, 2019, 06:28:26 pm »
Regarding Oshkosh and Whitman, I too was initially thinking that Oshkosh lost enough from that backcourt to mean they should not be the prohibitive favorite heading into the season, but I had a change of heart after seeing some of them in the tourney. 

I think I am the only one to post I too worthy relatable commentary so I'll say, though your points are well taken, I do not think we should underestimate the loss of Boots and Wittchow. 

Oshkosh is surely the preseason favorite, but I am not sure we will talk about them in the same way we did Nebraska Wesleyan this season.

By the way, their contributions on paper:

Boots: 33 minutes per game, 15.7 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists
Wittchow: 32 minutes per game, 14 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists

Offline Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #598 on: April 23, 2019, 09:27:31 am »
Just edited my post a bit as you were posting Greg :)!  Fair on Guiterrez, but still, he goes from being like the 11th or 12th guy to now probably the 3rd or 4th guy, reflective of just how much big-time talent Whitman lost to graduation.  And part of what made them so tough was their relentless physicality and rebounding, and without Butler and Jacobs-Jones, that element is missing.  Still probably a top-20 team, but not a top-5 or even top-10 one on paper in my view, unless they bring in a ton of big-time talent.

The question, in my mind, is how many of the fourth year players with eligibility left decide to use it.  They're going to lose four big-time players for sure, but with that style and that depth, they're going to be very dangerous.  I don't have a lot of details, but I hear they're doing very well on the recruiting trail, as well - perhaps gaining a more solid foothold farther east.  They're essentially recruiting a lot of the same prep schools as the NESCAC - if they can start getting those guys to head west with some consistency, it'll be interesting.

Whitman's system is basically entirely different than most other teams play.  I'm looking at Gutierrez as essentially a sophomore coming into this year, having spent a year learning.  I suspect you'll see a marked improvement, especially as a senior and without last year's class clout hanging over them.  I wondered all year if they were playing too many guys to really reach full potential.  We'll find out this time around.

I agree, they may not be Top 10, but I'm not going to count them out they way I might another team enduring those losses (a la Williams).

I just mean that Ducket, Obsborne, Gutierrez, Vickers, and Kirkley is a pretty darn good starting five.  If Colton and Harvey are also back, you've got a strong seven man rotation.  That's a good team.  If it's just that starting five, then there are a lot more questions.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2019, 10:08:50 am by Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) »
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Offline nescac1

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Re: 2019 NCAA Tournament
« Reply #599 on: April 24, 2019, 09:48:53 am »
The thing with Whitman is that (unless as you suggest a few guys are coming back for fifth years) they not only lose four big-time players, none of whom will be easily replaceable, they also lose a ton of their role players.  I think that the rotation probably was a bit too big last year, but to play that system effectively, you need at LEAST ten really good athletes (most of whom need to be good basketball players), probably more like 12-13 if you account for injuries, illness, etc.  They basically played 13 guys last year, and only five of them are returning.  Even though those five look very good, they need to find a lot of really good players this off-season if they hope to play effectively at a frantic, exhausting pace again.  They certainly may, and it helps that their main rivals seem to lose a lot as well.  Regarding the New England recruiting, I haven't seen any future Whitman guys listed on NERR (which is fairly comprehensive for New England recruiting, especially for the prep schools), but there is still a bit of time for guys to commit.