Author Topic: Pool C 2018  (Read 13565 times)

Offline hazzben

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Re: Pool C 2018
« Reply #165 on: November 11, 2018, 10:18:07 am »
Great update USee.

Makes IWU’s case to jump even stronger. We shall see!

Offline Pat Coleman

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Re: Pool C 2018
« Reply #166 on: November 11, 2018, 12:36:57 pm »
We've made our opinions known about the lack of original thought put into the North Region rankings. But if IWU were going to be ahead of Wabash, why would they be ahead today and not on Wednesday?
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Offline Titan Q

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Re: Pool C 2018
« Reply #167 on: November 11, 2018, 12:57:14 pm »
We've made our opinions known about the lack of original thought put into the North Region rankings. But if IWU were going to be ahead of Wabash, why would they be ahead today and not on Wednesday?

1. The regional or national committee taking a better look at how each team stacks up nationally in the Pool C process.

2. Wash U getting ranked #10 in the North, giving IWU another win/game vs RRO.

Offline Pat Coleman

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Re: Pool C 2018
« Reply #168 on: November 11, 2018, 01:26:36 pm »
If it happens, they may use 2 as an excuse, but it really would be 1. Last week IWU had an even larger SOS advantage on Franklin, which had no RRO results at all, and IWU surely should have been higher. But the North RAC was abdicating its responsibility to give teams fair consideration then, and that's really what needs to change.
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Offline Titan Q

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Re: Pool C 2018
« Reply #169 on: November 11, 2018, 01:43:13 pm »
If it happens, they may use 2 as an excuse, but it really would be 1. Last week IWU had an even larger SOS advantage on Franklin, which had no RRO results at all, and IWU surely should have been higher. But the North RAC was abdicating its responsibility to give teams fair consideration then, and that's really what needs to change.

Pat, do you know if we get the final rankings?

Offline Pat Coleman

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Re: Pool C 2018
« Reply #170 on: November 11, 2018, 01:49:21 pm »
If it happens, they may use 2 as an excuse, but it really would be 1. Last week IWU had an even larger SOS advantage on Franklin, which had no RRO results at all, and IWU surely should have been higher. But the North RAC was abdicating its responsibility to give teams fair consideration then, and that's really what needs to change.

Pat, do you know if we get the final rankings?

We do -- sorry, that was answered previously on this board or the CCIW, so I didn't reiterate the answer.
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Offline wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C 2018
« Reply #171 on: November 11, 2018, 02:31:26 pm »
Anyone know if/when we get the final regional rankings?

We got them last year, of course they were released after the bracket was.

http://d3football.com/playoffs/2017/final-regional-ranking

There's a lot going on on Selection Sunday, so publishing the final rankings is probably way down on the list.  I'm happy to have them at all, even if we get them post facto. 
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Offline wally_wabash

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Re: Pool C 2018
« Reply #172 on: November 11, 2018, 02:33:39 pm »
Projected bracket:
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2018/final-playoff-projection

I'll bump this and note that our projected final regional rankings are now available there so that you all can see the data we worked with to get where we got. 
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Offline USee

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Re: Pool C 2018
« Reply #173 on: November 11, 2018, 03:46:17 pm »
The committee process has been anything but consistent. It’s also not unprecedented for a team to jump up in a final poll above a team it was previously ranked below in the regional rankings for no apparent reason.  While I don’t expect it to happen for IWU, it also would t surprise me if it did happen. 
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Offline Titan Q

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Re: Pool C 2018
« Reply #174 on: November 11, 2018, 03:46:28 pm »
Projected bracket:
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2018/final-playoff-projection

I'll bump this and note that our projected final regional rankings are now available there so that you all can see the data we worked with to get where we got.

Thanks Wally.

With this data...

1 Mount Union 10-0, .534, 1-0
2 North Central (Ill.) 9-1, .542, 1-1
3 John Carroll 9-1, .538, 0-1
4 Trine 10-0, .506, 0-0
5 Wabash 9-1, .481, 1-0
6 Wittenberg 9-1, .504, 0-1
7 Illinois Wesleyan 8-2, .555, 2-2
8 Wheaton (Ill.) 8-2, .558, 2-2
9 Washington U. 8-2, .552, 1-2
10 Denison 8-2, .497, 1-1

...I'm curious how you guys landed on the order of Wabash, Witt, IWU.

It seems to me like IWU has the best resume of those 3.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2018, 03:50:11 pm by Titan Q »

Offline hazzben

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Re: Pool C 2018
« Reply #175 on: November 11, 2018, 03:58:22 pm »
Projected bracket:
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2018/final-playoff-projection

I'll bump this and note that our projected final regional rankings are now available there so that you all can see the data we worked with to get where we got.

Thanks Wally.

With this data...

1 Mount Union 10-0, .534, 1-0
2 North Central (Ill.) 9-1, .542, 1-1
3 John Carroll 9-1, .538, 0-1
4 Trine 10-0, .506, 0-0
5 Wabash 9-1, .481, 1-0
6 Wittenberg 9-1, .504, 0-1
7 Illinois Wesleyan 8-2, .555, 2-2
8 Wheaton (Ill.) 8-2, .558, 2-2
9 Washington U. 8-2, .552, 1-2
10 Denison 8-2, .497, 1-1

...I'm curious how you guys landed on the order of Wabash, Witt, IWU.

It seems to me like IWU has the best resume of those 3.

My assumption is they aren’t doing their own ranking so much as predicting what the actual RAC will do. So this isnt them saying IWU belongs here. They really have to attempt this or their entire projected bracket will be inaccurate.

Offline hazzben

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Re: Pool C 2018
« Reply #176 on: November 11, 2018, 04:13:55 pm »
@TitanQ

I don't disagree with those points re IWU. My gut is that IWU is probably better than Wabash/Witt (just a general impression that CCIW co-champ is probably a little better based on history). And I'd agree, if the North RAC did this, you'd have a good case for IWU getting in. And it would make for a completely different bracket.

I'd make the same argument for the West Region. Why not UST over Linfield? Linfield has 2 losses and a forfeit win. Yes, one of those is an NAIA team, but a very average NAIA team at that. I think UST would have some juice on the board as well.

I think we're going to have some solid 2 loss teams left home that may be better than several 1 loss at large teams. But it might have more to do with how the RAC's set the table than the National Committee's preference.

That said, UST, IWU, Ithaca, et al had their chances. With UST especially, their playoffs started yesterday.

Offline Titan Q

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Re: Pool C 2018
« Reply #177 on: November 11, 2018, 04:19:20 pm »

That said, UST, IWU, Ithaca, et al had their chances. With UST especially, their playoffs started yesterday.

No question

Offline MonroviaCat

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Re: Pool C 2018
« Reply #178 on: November 11, 2018, 04:20:05 pm »
@TitanQ

I don't disagree with those points re IWU. My gut is that IWU is probably better than Wabash/Witt (just a general impression that CCIW co-champ is probably a little better based on history). And I'd agree, if the North RAC did this, you'd have a good case for IWU getting in. And it would make for a completely different bracket.

I'd make the same argument for the West Region. Why not UST over Linfield? Linfield has 2 losses and a forfeit win. Yes, one of those is an NAIA team, but a very average NAIA team at that. I think UST would have some juice on the board as well.

I think we're going to have some solid 2 loss teams left home that may be better than several 1 loss at large teams. But it might have more to do with how the RAC's set the table than the National Committee's preference.

That said, UST, IWU, Ithaca, et al had their chances. With UST especially, their playoffs started yesterday.
This is not correct----Linfield's opponent (NAIA Carroll) has a forfeit win.  The Cat's wins were all legit.  And while I think St. Thomas would beat the Cats, when you compare them based on the criteria, both have 2 losses, neither has a win over a RRO, and Linfield has a higher SOS so that's probably why they stay ranked ahead of the Tommies. 
« Last Edit: November 11, 2018, 04:22:48 pm by MonroviaCat »
Go Cats!

Offline hazzben

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Re: Pool C 2018
« Reply #179 on: November 11, 2018, 04:31:45 pm »
@TitanQ

I don't disagree with those points re IWU. My gut is that IWU is probably better than Wabash/Witt (just a general impression that CCIW co-champ is probably a little better based on history). And I'd agree, if the North RAC did this, you'd have a good case for IWU getting in. And it would make for a completely different bracket.

I'd make the same argument for the West Region. Why not UST over Linfield? Linfield has 2 losses and a forfeit win. Yes, one of those is an NAIA team, but a very average NAIA team at that. I think UST would have some juice on the board as well.

I think we're going to have some solid 2 loss teams left home that may be better than several 1 loss at large teams. But it might have more to do with how the RAC's set the table than the National Committee's preference.

That said, UST, IWU, Ithaca, et al had their chances. With UST especially, their playoffs started yesterday.
This is not correct----Linfield's opponent (NAIA Carroll) has a forfeit win.  The Cat's wins were all legit.  And while I think St. Thomas would beat the Cats, when you compare them based on the criteria, both have 2 losses, neither has a win over a RRO, and Linfield has a higher SOS so that's probably why they stay ranked ahead of the Tommies.

Good catch. Brain fart there assigning the forfeit to Linfield.

I don't disagree that there's definitely a reason to keep Linfield above UST given SOS. But I think the argument at least comes up. UST has faced two RRO and lost twice. Both teams that make the field. Linfield has faced one RRO, and lost, to a team in the field. But there's this other data point, they lost to that .500 NAIA team.

Pat says it all the time, it's not who you lost to, it's who you beat. But I think in this instance, they probably at least take a peak at who those second losses are to, now that all the games are played.

End of the day, I think UST is in the same boat as IWU and the respective RAC's continue what they've done to this point. Though I think IWU is being done the greater diservice of the two.