Author Topic: The Big Dance  (Read 47075 times)

Offline Falconer

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The Big Dance
« on: November 05, 2018, 03:06:33 pm »
A separate thread seems useful, so here it is...

No need to "quote" this first post--just start us out, someone...

Offline jknezek

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2018, 03:17:39 pm »
Opinions on who got the biggest shaft being left out and who go the biggest shaft in their opening match up?

Offline territorysooner

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2018, 03:20:05 pm »
As someone new to following soccer as well as D3 athletics, how does a team like Claremont-Mudd-Scripps who is ranked #1 in the West region get left out when Southwestern (Texas) who is ranked #5 regionally get in with the Pool C bid?

Offline Falconer

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2018, 03:31:21 pm »
Concerning the bye not given to Messiah (noticed on another thread), no big deal.

Quite possibly, the Falcons would rather not have a bye. The last time they had one, they won their first game just 1-0 vs Morrisville, and (as many of their fans will painfully recall), as defending champions in 2011 they got bounced 1-0 by Neumann after receiving a bye. Now, 2012 was a totally different story...

Anyway, it's probably best for the Falcons to play rather than sit out the first round game. Lots of young players get time on this team, and they can benefit from the baptism vs the lower-ranked opponent first.

Offline blue_jays

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2018, 03:38:14 pm »
Concerning the bye not given to Messiah (noticed on another thread), no big deal.

Quite possibly, the Falcons would rather not have a bye. The last time they had one, they won their first game just 1-0 vs Morrisville, and (as many of their fans will painfully recall), as defending champions in 2011 they got bounced 1-0 by Neumann after receiving a bye. Now, 2012 was a totally different story...

Anyway, it's probably best for the Falcons to play rather than sit out the first round game. Lots of young players get time on this team, and they can benefit from the baptism vs the lower-ranked opponent first.

Byes are based on geography and how the bracket is created even more so than the best team(s) receiving it. Some years it matches up, some years it doesn't. With so many teams in the east/northeast, they have a harder time receiving a bye.

Offline TheGreenKnight920

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2018, 03:58:24 pm »
Opinions on who got the biggest shaft being left out

Oh you already know who I think got the shaft...Good thing is SNC returns almost all of their starters and a large senior class for next year and I hope they get revenge for getting screwed.

Offline PaulNewman

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2018, 04:37:27 pm »
I feel really badly for North Park, St. Norbert and C-M-S, and pretty bad for Ithaca and Hope.

There's a lot of focus on blaming NESCAC and UAA....They are the two best conferences year in and year out without dispute.  The #8 NESCAC team (that had to win a play-in game to even get the 8th spot) just prevailed over Tufts, Amherst and Williams!  The #8 seed!!!  Middle of pack NESCAC is very good soccer and some of these other teams might be challenged to win even 1 or 2 games in the NESCAC or UAA (see Emory Eagles).

Someone was sarcastic about the East getting the bids.  LL only got the AQ.  NCAC only got the AQ.  Look to the North and West for some of the blame.  The North cmte chair earned his money.  4 bids to the MIAC!   That's where I would complain...Augsburg, St Thomas, Southwestern...and two Pool Bs.

Chicago has a good draw.  So does Calvin.  Tufts has one home game to the Sweet 16 and no doubt home field for the Sectional.  Good draw for Tufts.  Messiah's looks the hardest IMO.

Offline Ron Boerger

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2018, 04:49:19 pm »
As someone new to following soccer as well as D3 athletics, how does a team like Claremont-Mudd-Scripps who is ranked #1 in the West region get left out when Southwestern (Texas) who is ranked #5 regionally get in with the Pool C bid?

According to https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/soccer-men/d3/regional-rankings (the ones released today) the NCAA has Southwestern ranked #1 in the region despite having a worse record than Trinity or CMS, a lower winning percentage against RROs, and a 1-3 h2h loss to Trinity.    CMS was third.   The only thing SW had over either school was a better SOS (by a whopping .02).   Don't ask me.

D3 results:
T1. Trinity - 13-1-3, .853
T1. CMS - 14-2-1, .853
3. SW - 12-4-2, .722

Against RROs:
1. CMS - 4-1-0, .800
2. Trinity - 2-0-3, .700
3. SW - 3-2-1, .583

Strength of Schedule:
1. SW - 0.558
2. Trinity - 0.534
3. CMS - 0.532
« Last Edit: November 05, 2018, 04:55:05 pm by Ron Boerger »

Offline EB2319

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2018, 04:53:54 pm »
Middle of pack NESCAC is very good soccer and some of these other teams might be challenged to win even 1 or 2 games in the NESCAC or UAA (see Emory Eagles).

[RANT] Apologies for my side-bar, but I couldn't let this slide.  I struggle to call NESCAC very good soccer.  Maybe very successful soccer, but I've not been impressed with the quality of the game in those I watched. [END RANT]


Offline TheGreenKnight920

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2018, 04:55:52 pm »
As someone new to following soccer as well as D3 athletics, how does a team like Claremont-Mudd-Scripps who is ranked #1 in the West region get left out when Southwestern (Texas) who is ranked #5 regionally get in with the Pool C bid?

According to https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/soccer-men/d3/regional-rankings (the ones released today) the NCAA has Southwestern ranked #1 in the region despite having a worse record than Trinity or CMS, a lower winning percentage against RROs, and a 1-3 h2h loss to Trinity.    CMS was third.   The only thing SW had over either school was a better SOS (by a whopping .02).   Don't ask me.

Honest question: Are these regional rankings released today there solely to serve the purpose of justifying At-Large bids? In this situation, that seems to be the case...

Offline Ron Boerger

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2018, 05:06:43 pm »
As someone new to following soccer as well as D3 athletics, how does a team like Claremont-Mudd-Scripps who is ranked #1 in the West region get left out when Southwestern (Texas) who is ranked #5 regionally get in with the Pool C bid?

According to https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/soccer-men/d3/regional-rankings (the ones released today) the NCAA has Southwestern ranked #1 in the region despite having a worse record than Trinity or CMS, a lower winning percentage against RROs, and a 1-3 h2h loss to Trinity.    CMS was third.   The only thing SW had over either school was a better SOS (by a whopping .02).   Don't ask me.

Honest question: Are these regional rankings released today there solely to serve the purpose of justifying At-Large bids? In this situation, that seems to be the case...

These are supposed to be the final numbers the NCAA uses in making their decisions.  Unfortunately (in CMS' case) we have zero explanation why a small (significant, but still small) difference in OWP overrides much larger differences in overall record and records against RROs.   Then there's the fact that SW was 0-1-1 against Trinity with the tie actually a loss in PK. 

I'd sure love Christian or one of the d3soccer folks to weigh in on this.  I've never seen this large of a disconnect between the NCAA's own criteria and their selections.

Offline TheGreenKnight920

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2018, 05:10:32 pm »
As someone new to following soccer as well as D3 athletics, how does a team like Claremont-Mudd-Scripps who is ranked #1 in the West region get left out when Southwestern (Texas) who is ranked #5 regionally get in with the Pool C bid?

According to https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/soccer-men/d3/regional-rankings (the ones released today) the NCAA has Southwestern ranked #1 in the region despite having a worse record than Trinity or CMS, a lower winning percentage against RROs, and a 1-3 h2h loss to Trinity.    CMS was third.   The only thing SW had over either school was a better SOS (by a whopping .02).   Don't ask me.

Honest question: Are these regional rankings released today there solely to serve the purpose of justifying At-Large bids? In this situation, that seems to be the case...

These are supposed to be the final numbers the NCAA uses in making their decisions.  Unfortunately (in CMS' case) we have zero explanation why a small (significant, but still small) difference in OWP overrides much larger differences in overall record and records against RROs.

I'd sure love Christian or one of the d3soccer folks to weigh in on this.  I've never seen this large of a disconnect between the NCAA's own criteria and their selections.

I'd also like to know whether H2H plays any role at all...From my slim understanding, anyway, it does not. UWP top 3 in the North, even though they lost to SNC, who finished 6th in the region? I know that they took a Pool B bid, but one could argue that since there were 2 Pool Bs, Platteville essentially took SNC's Pool C spot. I simply do not understand. Does H2H have any weight? It certainly should, in my opinion.

Offline DagarmanSpartan

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2018, 05:18:08 pm »
Good thing to see Case Western Reserve in the Dance.

GO SPARTANS!!!

Offline territorysooner

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2018, 05:22:33 pm »
As someone new to following soccer as well as D3 athletics, how does a team like Claremont-Mudd-Scripps who is ranked #1 in the West region get left out when Southwestern (Texas) who is ranked #5 regionally get in with the Pool C bid?

According to https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/soccer-men/d3/regional-rankings (the ones released today) the NCAA has Southwestern ranked #1 in the region despite having a worse record than Trinity or CMS, a lower winning percentage against RROs, and a 1-3 h2h loss to Trinity.    CMS was third.   The only thing SW had over either school was a better SOS (by a whopping .02).   Don't ask me.

D3 results:
T1. Trinity - 13-1-3, .853
T1. CMS - 14-2-1, .853
3. SW - 12-4-2, .722

Against RROs:
1. CMS - 4-1-0, .800
2. Trinity - 2-0-3, .700
3. SW - 3-2-1, .583

Strength of Schedule:
1. SW - 0.558
2. Trinity - 0.534
3. CMS - 0.532

Thanks. The regional rankings have changed since the brackets were released. This morning, CMS was ranked 1 and SW was 5. That's a pretty big jump for SW in one week.

Offline PaulNewman

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2018, 05:24:26 pm »
These final rankings do seem unusual.

Kenyon finishes at #4 in Great Lakes.....16-1-2 (.890+); .578 SoS; 2-1-2 RvR...beat John Carroll H2H....not to mention unbeaten in NCAC play winning regular season and tournament.  What else were they supposed to do?  Seems there is a very good chance they had to win the AQ, although looking at all the Pool Cs it appears that some teams were rewarded for bigger numbers on RvR while others were given a pass on RvR.