Author Topic: The Big Dance  (Read 42693 times)

Offline d3commenter

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #75 on: November 07, 2018, 08:10:09 pm »
That RUN team ran into that same Brandeis team the year before in the Elite 8


Offline Mr.Right

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #76 on: November 07, 2018, 08:23:15 pm »
That RUN team ran into that same Brandeis team the year before in the Elite 8


Yup....I thought that team was even a tad better than in 2016 and they were coming off a Win over Oneonta in the Sweet 16. I remember predicting that RUN might struggle because that pod was at Amherst on grass and they had not played many games in 2016 on grass but they surprised me and advanced over a pretty good Oneonta team. Brandeis ripped RUN apart in that Elite 8 match as I thought that game would be pretty tight and it was for the first 20 minutes and then Brandeis scored two goals in a minute to take a 2-0 lead. RUN got on back before the Half and it was looking like it could be a tight game again but then IIRC Brandies Lynch got a 3rd goal and RUN got a straight Red Card and it was curtains for RUN.

Offline Londoner

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #77 on: November 08, 2018, 09:41:29 am »
Good to get info on Luther and Carleton.  Any further details appreciated, and also any insights into Southwestern, MHB, Augsburg, St Thomas, Pac Lutheran, Wisc-Superior, Wisc-Platteville and GAC.  And what about Knox?  Will Luther definitely get by the Prairie Fire (in running for best nickname/mascot)?


From what I’ve seen this year...

Southwestern lean heavily on forward Jake Swonke, who is a great finisher if given a chance. They’re hard to break down and Goalkeeper Carr won Defensive MVP at the SCAC Tournament this Past weekend. Didn’t concede from the run of play (kept two clean sheets, conceded on penalty against Trinity in the 110 mins, then four pens in the shootout) and defensively they’re stout, but not very expansive with the ball. Set up to counter and get set pieces. Long throw causes problems too.

UMHB had a historic season last year, reaching the sweet 16. Upset Trinity in San Antonio - inspired by Their excellent head coach Brad Bankhead - in a wild game, but couldn’t get past Emory. They’re big and physical with a few skilful players up top. They won’t be intimidated being back in SA, and won the ASC in a crazy game vs UTD 1-0 last weekend (lots of yellows and a red I believe). They’ll be big and tough and a bit rough but will definitely fancy their chances vs southwestern.

The rest of that quad is intriguing too. Trinity beat Chapman 2-0 in the round of 32 in 2016, so it’s a rematch there. Trinity fairly clear home favorite but Chapman won’t be intimidated. Will say, Trinity vs Chicago in September was the best game I saw all year. Had everything. Two fantastic teams. I’d love to see Trinity vs Chicago in the Sweet 16, with the winner facing (probably) Luther in the Elite 8. That’s three very good teams who play the right way. I’d expect one of those three to make the Final 4.

Offline Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #78 on: November 08, 2018, 03:43:55 pm »
Paul - how do you say "East Coast bias?" I am genuianely curious. A vast majority of DIII schools and programs are from the Appalachains eastward ... I tend to think of that as simply mathematics, not bias.

D-Mac, I expect Paul is referring to the lens through which he is viewing the bracket . . .

Yeah - I'm trying to grasp the lens. There are a lot of people who talk about "east coast" bias in many sports in DIII. That isn't accurate when you look at the math. It makes it sound like the smaller proportion should somehow have more weight. If one looks at the map of Division III and where schools are located, they will see a huge tilt to the right.

That is why the Northeast has so many ranked teams - they have a huge number of schools within the borders of the region (even when an effort was made, and will be made again, to redraw those borders). There isn't anything that can be done about the geographical location of Division III institutions. Not when half of the geographic country has a handful of schools in comparison to the other half.

But again ... I want to understand better the lens Paul is looking through to understand what he means by bias. I do appreciate it could have a completely different meaning.

Per usual....different wavelengths for you and me.

1970s was correct....I was trying to show some deference for the possibility that I might have some bias, as some posters even just within the last few days have made sarcastic comments about "all the Pool Cs" going to the East Coast, to some degree in concert with all of the laments about mid-table NESCACs and UAAs getting into the tournament.  I also by using that intro was covering myself because I indeed do not know a ton about some of the Central, much of the North, and the West (other than what most might guess about Trinity, Whitworth, Colorado Coll, etc based on recent years).  I do in fact view the right side of bracket as "tougher" with a greater number of more competitive teams, but given that the left side has so many from less familiar regions I wanted to leave room for others and especially posters from those regions to counter and/or correct me.

P.S.  And also sensitive to the board being dominated by East Coasters....especially the New England, Mid-Atlantic, and to some degree South Atlantic contingents....and over the years I have urged more viewers of the site from other regions to become more active posters.

That is why I asked ... I don't think we are on different wave lengths. I simply took the opportunity I had at the time to present a thought.

I think the problem for me comes down to the word "bias" thrown around. People think when they see that word that it has to be true without knowing all the facts. Too many times when talking about that it turns out the people involved have NO idea how many schools are Appalachians and Eastward. Thus, people think there is a bias because they see stories and such more from that general area and don't appreciate that it's because 2/3s of the division is there. It is unavoidable.

I'd love to see interactions on the boards from around the country, but much like the distribution of schools in Division III, so is the population and also fan-hood of those schools. You would have to have a larger, disproportionate, portion of fanhood and posters to compensate.

That said ... in my experience the biggest chunk of posters come from the Midwest.
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Offline Ron Boerger

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #79 on: November 09, 2018, 09:13:48 am »

From what I’ve seen this year...

Southwestern lean heavily on forward Jake Swonke, who is a great finisher if given a chance. They’re hard to break down and Goalkeeper Carr won Defensive MVP at the SCAC Tournament this Past weekend. Didn’t concede from the run of play (kept two clean sheets, conceded on penalty against Trinity in the 110 mins, then four pens in the shootout) and defensively they’re stout, but not very expansive with the ball. Set up to counter and get set pieces. Long throw causes problems too.

UMHB had a historic season last year, reaching the sweet 16. Upset Trinity in San Antonio - inspired by Their excellent head coach Brad Bankhead - in a wild game, but couldn’t get past Emory. They’re big and physical with a few skilful players up top. They won’t be intimidated being back in SA, and won the ASC in a crazy game vs UTD 1-0 last weekend (lots of yellows and a red I believe). They’ll be big and tough and a bit rough but will definitely fancy their chances vs southwestern.

The rest of that quad is intriguing too. Trinity beat Chapman 2-0 in the round of 32 in 2016, so it’s a rematch there. Trinity fairly clear home favorite but Chapman won’t be intimidated. Will say, Trinity vs Chicago in September was the best game I saw all year. Had everything. Two fantastic teams. I’d love to see Trinity vs Chicago in the Sweet 16, with the winner facing (probably) Luther in the Elite 8. That’s three very good teams who play the right way. I’d expect one of those three to make the Final 4.

Great insights from a man who definitely knows his Trinity futbol - thanks, Londoner.   The only thing I will add to that is the area has received a good deal of rain this morning so the field conditions could be tricky.   Rain should stop in the next hour or two so there will be a little time for things to drain; cool (high of 55), cloudy, breezy the rest of the day. 


Offline PaulNewman

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #80 on: November 09, 2018, 11:14:55 am »
I wonder if there has been a year in recent memory where the favorites seemed so favored and clearly on another level than the rest of the field.  With few exceptions (and those look mostly partisan) bracket predictors are picking "the big four" -- Chicago, Calvin, Tufts and Messiah -- to land in the Final Four.  I personally have viewed those four as distinct from the next tier from the beginning of the season to the end, and IMO the next tier is pretty fluid/interchangeable between teams 5 thru 16 or so.

It is also IMO difficult to pick which of "the big four" is least likely to get to Greensboro.  In terms of a champion, Chicago and Calvin appear to have a good deal of sentiment behind them, and for good reason.  Who, though, could argue that Messiah isn't a smart choice?  And then there's steady, tough as nails Tufts who has never lost a Final Four match.  In any case, if these four do make it that will be a huge treat for fans of those teams and us neutrals who will enjoy and be intrigued by how the games play out.

I wonder what the statistical odds are for none of that four making it.  That would yield an intriguing Final Four in itself with a completely wide open outcome.

P.S. Yeah, I know, Messiah has never lost a Final Four match, either, with far more opportunity, right?

P.S.S.  The "cmte" has received some flak over a few snubs, but let's give them credit for putting "the big four" all in separate quads (even if it wasn't intentional).
« Last Edit: November 09, 2018, 11:20:35 am by PaulNewman »

Offline rudy

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #81 on: November 09, 2018, 11:45:27 am »
I wonder if there has been a year in recent memory where the favorites seemed so favored and clearly on another level than the rest of the field.  With few exceptions (and those look mostly partisan) bracket predictors are picking "the big four" -- Chicago, Calvin, Tufts and Messiah -- to land in the Final Four.  I personally have viewed those four as distinct from the next tier from the beginning of the season to the end, and IMO the next tier is pretty fluid/interchangeable between teams 5 thru 16 or so.

It is also IMO difficult to pick which of "the big four" is least likely to get to Greensboro.  In terms of a champion, Chicago and Calvin appear to have a good deal of sentiment behind them, and for good reason.  Who, though, could argue that Messiah isn't a smart choice?  And then there's steady, tough as nails Tufts who has never lost a Final Four match.  In any case, if these four do make it that will be a huge treat for fans of those teams and us neutrals who will enjoy and be intrigued by how the games play out.

I wonder what the statistical odds are for none of that four making it.  That would yield an intriguing Final Four in itself with a completely wide open outcome.

P.S. Yeah, I know, Messiah has never lost a Final Four match, either, with far more opportunity, right?

P.S.S.  The "cmte" has received some flak over a few snubs, but let's give them credit for putting "the big four" all in separate quads (even if it wasn't intentional).


I would bet not all 4 make it but I'd also bet that at least one makes it! Probably 2. So many things have to go right to make final 4...much less win it all.  Almost every game Messiah won last year in tournament was by 1 goal. Tufts made it to elite 8 without scoring a goal last year. One thing for sure we will have at least 2 different teams in final 4 than last year.

Offline PaulNewman

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #82 on: November 09, 2018, 12:11:33 pm »
Geez, this week has moved slow waiting for the tournament.....

So....

Best nickname/mascot challenge....Final Four...Knox Prairie Fire versus Chicago Maroons; John Carroll Blue Streaks versus NYU Violets....the "color" nicknames do not advance....Championship match -- Knox Prairie Fire versus JCU Blue Streaks....Champion = Knox Prairie Fire 3-2 OT1

Honorable Mention....St Joseph's (ME) Monks and Ramapo Roadrunners

Interesting and impressive history with Chicago and 'Maroons'....

https://athletics.uchicago.edu/about/history/maroons-phoenix




Offline PaulNewman

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #83 on: November 09, 2018, 12:47:01 pm »
And while Chicago can tout Amos Alonzo Stagg, John Carroll can counter with Don Shula and Don Shula Field.

More news and notes....the opening round match between Centre and Carnegie Mellon could be a sleeper to keep an eye on.  Both coaches are Centre grads....Centre coach Jeb Burch in '94 and CMU coach Brandon Bowman in '97.  Interestingly, Burch took over at Centre in 2002, the same year Bowman started an 11 year run just up the road at rival Transylvania, and according to Bowman's CMU bio Transy and Centre never played during that span.  Both teams will be very familiar with the venue as Centre and CMU have played Kenyon every year or almost every year for the past handful of years.  This season Kenyon beat Centre in Gambier and drew with CMU in Pittsburgh.

Offline Gregory Sager

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #84 on: November 09, 2018, 01:01:00 pm »
Paul - how do you say "East Coast bias?" I am genuianely curious. A vast majority of DIII schools and programs are from the Appalachains eastward ... I tend to think of that as simply mathematics, not bias.

D-Mac, I expect Paul is referring to the lens through which he is viewing the bracket . . .

Yeah - I'm trying to grasp the lens. There are a lot of people who talk about "east coast" bias in many sports in DIII. That isn't accurate when you look at the math. It makes it sound like the smaller proportion should somehow have more weight. If one looks at the map of Division III and where schools are located, they will see a huge tilt to the right.

That is why the Northeast has so many ranked teams - they have a huge number of schools within the borders of the region (even when an effort was made, and will be made again, to redraw those borders). There isn't anything that can be done about the geographical location of Division III institutions. Not when half of the geographic country has a handful of schools in comparison to the other half.

But again ... I want to understand better the lens Paul is looking through to understand what he means by bias. I do appreciate it could have a completely different meaning.

Per usual....different wavelengths for you and me.

1970s was correct....I was trying to show some deference for the possibility that I might have some bias, as some posters even just within the last few days have made sarcastic comments about "all the Pool Cs" going to the East Coast, to some degree in concert with all of the laments about mid-table NESCACs and UAAs getting into the tournament.  I also by using that intro was covering myself because I indeed do not know a ton about some of the Central, much of the North, and the West (other than what most might guess about Trinity, Whitworth, Colorado Coll, etc based on recent years).  I do in fact view the right side of bracket as "tougher" with a greater number of more competitive teams, but given that the left side has so many from less familiar regions I wanted to leave room for others and especially posters from those regions to counter and/or correct me.

P.S.  And also sensitive to the board being dominated by East Coasters....especially the New England, Mid-Atlantic, and to some degree South Atlantic contingents....and over the years I have urged more viewers of the site from other regions to become more active posters.

That is why I asked ... I don't think we are on different wave lengths. I simply took the opportunity I had at the time to present a thought.

I think the problem for me comes down to the word "bias" thrown around. People think when they see that word that it has to be true without knowing all the facts. Too many times when talking about that it turns out the people involved have NO idea how many schools are Appalachians and Eastward. Thus, people think there is a bias because they see stories and such more from that general area and don't appreciate that it's because 2/3s of the division is there. It is unavoidable.

I use what I call the AMP Line to signify the cutoff between D3's two halves. The Allegheny, Monongahela, and Potomac rivers roughly bisect the northeastern half of D3 from the rest-of-the-United-States half of D3. For those of you who are geographically challenged, the Allegheny River starts up along the western part of the New York/Pennsylvania border, running fairly close to Lake Erie before plunging southward to Pittsburgh, where it meets the Monongahela (coming up northward from West Virginia) to form the Ohio River. The Monongahela runs close to the Potomac, which of course flows from the Appalachians eastward, forming the border between Maryland (and the District of Columbia) and Virginia before emptying into Chesapeake Bay and, thus, the Atlantic Ocean.

Everything northeastward of the AMP Line -- New England, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and everything in Pennsylvania east of Pittsburgh -- contains half of the schools in D3. The other 92% or so of the lower 48 states contains the other half, with approximately two-thirds of that rest-of-the-country half concentrated in the Midwest.

This national map of D3 baseball looks pretty much the same as what the map of D3 men's soccer would look like if someone made one.

I'd love to see interactions on the boards from around the country, but much like the distribution of schools in Division III, so is the population and also fan-hood of those schools. You would have to have a larger, disproportionate, portion of fanhood and posters to compensate.

That said ... in my experience the biggest chunk of posters come from the Midwest.

That's true in the other sports, but it's not true for the men's soccer section of d3boards.com. The posters for this particular sport are very heavily weighted to the northeastern side of the AMP Line.
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Offline 1970s NESCAC Player

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #85 on: November 09, 2018, 01:13:44 pm »
And while Chicago can tout Amos Alonzo Stagg, John Carroll can counter with Don Shula and Don Shula Field.


Pats OC, Josh McDaniels, also went to John Carroll . . .

Offline Flying Weasel

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #86 on: November 09, 2018, 01:38:37 pm »
P.S. Yeah, I know, Messiah has never lost a Final Four match, either, with far more opportunity, right?

Don't Falcon fans wish!  We'd have 15 titles instead of "only" 11 if that was the case.  Lost in the semifinals three times and tied once: 1986 lost to UC San Diego 2-1 in OT, 1988 tied UC San Diego 0-0 and lost in PK shootout, 2001 lost to Redlands 2-1 in OT, and in 2007 lost 1-0 to Trinity (Tx.).  And we needed a PK shootout to win the 2008 final over Stevens after a 1-1 tie.  So Messiah is merely a .846-team when playing in Final Fours with a 21-3-2 record, and just 11-3-1 (.767) in semifinals.  But, the Falcons have never lost in a Final (10-0-1), so they have that going for them if they can survive the semifinal.

Offline lastguyoffthebench

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #87 on: November 09, 2018, 01:51:54 pm »
FW,

All national title games go in the record book as a W or L if it reaches PKs...

Offline 1970s NESCAC Player

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #88 on: November 09, 2018, 01:55:53 pm »
FW,

All national title games go in the record book as a W or L if it reaches PKs...

This is my understanding, as well, although it may not comport with international rules, which I believe would record the champion as the winner of the shootout, but would officially consider the game a tie.

Offline rudy

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Re: The Big Dance
« Reply #89 on: November 09, 2018, 02:21:42 pm »
anybody have suggestions on games being played today worth watching?