Author Topic: UAA 2019  (Read 4519 times)

Offline WUPHF

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Re: UAA 2019
« Reply #30 on: September 14, 2019, 12:06:35 am »
Washington University defeated Dominican 3-0.

The sophomores led the way tonight with three quality goals including this header from Nolan Wolf:

Offline Buck O.

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Re: UAA 2019
« Reply #31 on: Today at 06:51:37 pm »
The UAA is not exactly off to a strong start this year.  Last year, the lowest ranked UAA team at the end of the season was Brandeis at #51 (all ratings per Massey); this year, three teams are currently ranked below #100.  Given that we're already better than halfway through the non-conference season, I've got to think this is going to affect the SoS that has gotten so many UAA teams into the tournament in the last couple of years.

Going through the teams, in order of their Massey ratings:

#9 Chicago (2-0-3):  Some things never change.  Highest rating in the league, despite the not-so-gaudy (but nevertheless undefeated) record.  That record is fortified by the fact that each of their opponents is a top-100 team.  The two teams they've beaten, #44 Hope and #46 North Park, are the two-highest rated teams to have been beaten by UAA teams this year.  As we all know, Chicago's Class of 2019 included every conference POY since the Eisenhower Administration, but they've responded well to those losses.

#25 Rochester (3-2): The wins were against teams outside the top 100, so they've won the games they should have won.  The losses were both against top-12 teams, but they were one-goal losses, one in OT, and the stats suggest that the games were pretty even.  So while a team with the U of R's level of success over the last couple of years could have reasonably expected a result against Cortland or John Carroll, they've still responded well to losing a lot of players.

#30 WashU (3-1-1):  A loss and a tie against top-100 opponents and three fairly comfortable wins against teams ranked between #132 and #148.  The loss to St. Thomas easily could have been a better result for the Bears, as WashU was the better team in the first half against St. Thomas, but then went a man down just before halftime.  All in all, a good performance.  Some people were asking where the goals would come from, and the answer seems to be "everyone," as only one player has more than one goal (and he has two).

#34 CWRU (3-1-2):  A bit of a disappointment to date, as more was expected from the pre-season favorites.  The strongest of the three wins is against #159 Heidelberg; they're 0-1-2 against top-50 opponents, none of whom are in the top 20.  While I invoked the Plexiglas principle with regard to NYU when I was making my preseason predictions, it may also apply (albeit less strongly) to CWRU.   Teams that outperform their expectations one year are the teams that are the most likely to take a step back the next season, and other than NYU, no team in the UAA outperformed its expectations in 2018 more than CWRU.

#43 Brandeis (3-2-1):  A solid start.  Losses to Tufts and W&L are certainly no cause for shame.  The rest of their schedule has also been pretty solid, as only one of their opponents is ranked below #102, and they've done reasonably well against it, with the only blemish in that part of the schedule being the tie against #85 WPI. 

#105 CMU (3-3): And now we get into the disappointments section.  CMU was doing all right--not fantastic, but all right.  The team they defeated in their season-opening win, #51 Salisbury, was the highest-ranked team beaten by any UAA team other than Chicago this year.  The two losses were against top-30 teams.  And then they lost to previously winless Allegheny last night.  Allegheny is now ranked #266, so they must have been close to #300 before that game.  Ouch.

#129 Emory (1-3-1): Three losses against top-40 teams and a win against a sub-200 team:  Both as expected.  A tie against #184 Birmingham-Southern (the college whose name sounds the most like a railroad)? Not so great.

#181 NYU (0-4-1):   My expectations were not as high as others, as I expected some regression to the mean, but they seem to have regressed right past the mean.  The opening 4-0 loss to #47 Ithaca?  Well, these things happen sometimes.  The next three losses?  Hobart's a good team (#20), but Drew and RUC are ranked in the mid-100s, so that was cause for concern.  And then they tied Baruch, which was ranked in the 300s (now #293, thanks to this result)?  Ick.

Offline PaulNewman

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Re: UAA 2019
« Reply #32 on: Today at 07:29:15 pm »
^^^^^^^^^Really well done.  Enjoyed reading it.