Author Topic: D-3 Women 2019  (Read 3571 times)

Offline 2xfaux

  • Starter
  • ***
  • Posts: 251
  • Karma: +29/-7
    • View Profile
Re: D-3 Women 2019
« Reply #30 on: November 07, 2019, 05:34:13 pm »
My "terms of service" wasn't about this site but about my laziness on other sites where I mechanically check "agree" which probably explains why I keep getting emails from the Russian Mob telling me they have "stoln myid and is not so good so we giv back it maybe plese to u."  My attorney, Rudy, has it under control.

Meanwhile, in about an hour and half the Messiah Women will meet an Albright team that is playing very well on a cold, soggy Shoemaker Field and will shall see what happens there.

Offline discnerd

  • Junior Varsity
  • *
  • Posts: 22
  • Karma: +3/-0
    • View Profile
    • Musings of a Disc Nerd
Re: D-3 Women 2019
« Reply #31 on: November 10, 2019, 10:48:04 pm »
Discnerd's top 64


Invariably, some AQs are not on this list and geographic considerations get in the way of others.


RankingTeamRatingConference
1
Messiah
13.79377
MACC
2
Pomona-Pitzer
9.643365
SCIAC
3
MIT
9.057278
NEWMAC
4
Dickinson
8.611713
CC
5
Randolph-Macon
8.089854
ODAC
6
Arcadia
8.063929
MACC
7
TCNJ
7.746821
NJAC
8
Centre
7.511777
SAA
9
William Smith
7.14224
LL
10
Johns Hopkins
7.115187
CC
11
Christopher Newport
7.045461
CAC
12
Cal Lutheran
6.630379
SCIAC
13
Gettysburg
6.578958
CC
14
Haverford
6.020715
CC
15
Wheaton (Ill.)
5.698542
CCIW
16
Washington U.
5.558154
UAA
17
Tufts
5.280789
NESCAC
18
Salisbury
5.031897
CAC
19
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
4.827498
SCIAC
20
Stevens
4.659533
MACF
21
Chapman
4.656979
SCIAC
22
McDaniel
4.640234
CC
23
Swarthmore
4.547481
CC
24
Washington and Lee
4.449458
ODAC
25
Middlebury
4.026778
NESCAC
26
Virginia Wesleyan
3.96818
ODAC
27
Chicago
3.904208
UAA
28
Amherst
3.846481
NESCAC
29
Emory
3.767356
UAA
30
Geneseo State
3.64551
SUNYAC
31
St. Thomas
3.527784
MIAC
32
Misericordia
3.249596
MACF
33
Case Western Reserve
3.169702
UAA
34
Trinity (Texas)
3.163499
SCAC
35
Otterbein
3.07493
OAC
36
Pacific Lutheran
3.018315
NWC
37
Susquehanna
2.984115
LAND
38
Elizabethtown
2.975267
LAND
39
Williams
2.834563
NESCAC
40
Wartburg
2.796383
ARC
41
Roanoke
2.751019
ODAC
42
Ohio Northern
2.725475
OAC
43
Hardin-Simmons
2.716677
ASC
44
Scranton
2.700049
LAND
45
Franklin and Marshall
2.645889
CC
46
Lynchburg
2.633514
ODAC
47
Bridgewater (Va.)
2.60726
ODAC
48
WPI
2.541602
NEWMAC
49
Muhlenberg
2.512479
CC
50
Rochester
2.484983
UAA
51
Mary Washington
2.4692
CAC
52
RIT
2.382
LL
53
Hamilton
2.361833
NESCAC
54
Stockton
2.323569
NJAC
55
St. Lawrence
2.301917
LL
56
Montclair State
2.283094
NJAC
57
Augsburg
2.270362
MIAC
58
Wesleyan
2.268807
NESCAC
59
Illinois Wesleyan
2.237537
CCIW
60
Capital
2.221798
OAC
61
Carnegie Mellon
2.196927
UAA
62
Occidental
2.170574
SCIAC
63
Connecticut College
2.143517
NESCAC
64
Puget Sound
2.04458
NWC

Online Ron Boerger

  • All-American
  • ******
  • Posts: 7206
  • Karma: +670/-141
    • View Profile
Re: D-3 Women 2019
« Reply #32 on: November 11, 2019, 09:21:10 am »
BTW, Trinity (TX) lost in PKs (5-4) to Southwestern in the SCAC championship game yesterday.   SW's keeper, Mary Cardone, was on top of her game, stopping 12 SOG including a PK in regulation to keep the match scoreless.   She also stopped Trinity's final PK which gave the Pirates the win.  The loss puts an end to Trinity's D3-record 134 consecutive conference wins.   Southwestern, badly outshot on the day (24-4, 12-3 SOG) will need to find some kind of offense to make any noise in the team's first playoff run. 

This could be the first time in many years Trinity (TX) will not field a playoff representative in either men's or women's soccer. 
« Last Edit: November 11, 2019, 09:48:43 am by Ron Boerger »

Offline PlaySimple

  • Second-stringer
  • **
  • Posts: 33
  • Karma: +2/-0
    • View Profile
Re: D-3 Women 2019
« Reply #33 on: November 11, 2019, 10:56:55 am »
This could be the first time in many years Trinity (TX) will not field a playoff representative in either men's or women's soccer.

Trinity might be OK getting in as a "pool C" candidate.

Did you happen to read Christan Shirk's and Jim Hutchinson's excellent Women's at-large berth analysis and predictions? They've got Trinity listed as "probably okay, but still nervous."

Here is the link to that: https://d3soccer.com/columns/jim-hutchinson/2019/womens-at-large-analysis-and-predictions

Online Ron Boerger

  • All-American
  • ******
  • Posts: 7206
  • Karma: +670/-141
    • View Profile
Re: D-3 Women 2019
« Reply #34 on: November 11, 2019, 01:41:22 pm »
This could be the first time in many years Trinity (TX) will not field a playoff representative in either men's or women's soccer.

Trinity might be OK getting in as a "pool C" candidate.

Did you happen to read Christan Shirk's and Jim Hutchinson's excellent Women's at-large berth analysis and predictions? They've got Trinity listed as "probably okay, but still nervous."

Here is the link to that: https://d3soccer.com/columns/jim-hutchinson/2019/womens-at-large-analysis-and-predictions

Thanks, I had not seen it.   Good thing they beat Hardin-Simmons early in the season.

They did make it in, were sent to Hardin-Simmons, and will face either the Cowgirls or Southwestern should they make it to the second round. 


Offline PlaySimple

  • Second-stringer
  • **
  • Posts: 33
  • Karma: +2/-0
    • View Profile
Re: D-3 Women 2019
« Reply #35 on: November 12, 2019, 11:36:44 am »
So are there any omissions or inclusions in the field that surprised anyone?

I have heard some grumbling from Centre fans that despite a 21-0-0 season, they are not hosting and must travel to Ohio Northern. I actually am going to respectfully disagree with those fans. Centre has one of the lowest SOSs in the entire field. Unless I'm mistaken, Webster and Concordia are the only teams in the field with a lower SOS than Centre. If Jay Hoffman wants to enhance Centre's prospects of hosting, he should have a stronger OOC schedule because the conference that Centre plays in, the SAA, is not strong. Centre's best win of the year was definitely its 1-0 win over Emory at the end September but the Colonels did not face enough other quality opponents to supplement that win. There was a game scheduled against Mt St Joseph, an NCAA qualifier last season, but they were not a good side this season. NCAC teams Wittenberg, DePauw, and Denison were all on the schedule as well but none of those teams were that strong this season and the NCAC was not a strong conference. The lone OAC conference team on the schedule, Mt Union, was not that strong and, again, the OAC was a middling conference. Centre would be better off scheduling more difficult sides and perhaps losing a few along the way as opposed to how Hoffman currently schedules. This would also prepare them more for the post season. The Colonels do have a decent chance to survive the opening weekend but I don't see them hanging around after the second weekend. Assuming that Centre wins their opening game, they'll more than likely face a very beatable Ohio Northern team in the second game.

Jim Hutchinson and Christan Shirk did an excellent job of analyzing and predicting the field prior to the selections. Here is is if you haven't read it already: https://d3soccer.com/columns/jim-hutchinson/2019/womens-at-large-analysis-and-predictions

In the analysis, Otterbein and Wesleyan were listed as being "on the right side of the bubble." Both must have been on the wrong side of the bubble because neither was selected. I was actually surprised that Otterbein was mentioned as having a good chance due to losing to Ohio Northern in the OAC final. I honestly can't remember the last tie that the OAC had an at-large selection. The conference is decent but is not particularly strong. I would have been surprised if Otterbein had made the field and their omission was the correct decision by the committee.

I was more surprised by the omission of NESCAC member Wesleyan. Wesleyan had a 4-4-1 record versus ranked teams including a 2-1 win over Williams. What probably doomed Wesleyan was going 0-3 over the last 3 games.

I was a little surprised that the Centennial Conference had 5 selections. I thought one of Swarthmore or Haverford would be in the field but not both. There were 10 selections in the tournament between the UAA and the Centennial. Last year the UAA also had 5 teams in the field and that did not turn out well for them. 


Offline 2xfaux

  • Starter
  • ***
  • Posts: 251
  • Karma: +29/-7
    • View Profile
Re: D-3 Women 2019
« Reply #36 on: November 12, 2019, 01:31:18 pm »
So much confuses me these days.  I was hoping the geography of these brackets wouldn't add to my bewildedment.  Alas, Emory goes to California and Pomona-Pitzer travels to Iowa.  Did I read this wrong?

Williams at 9-5-2 has the worst record of any team in the tournament but as two time defending champion and winner of three of the last four I am glad they are here.  If the EPHS get past Gettysburg and the MIT v J&W winner, I wouldn't want to play them.  I am not an EPHS fan but they owe Coach Pinard their best effort. Big Time.

Offline cciw83

  • Junior Varsity
  • *
  • Posts: 23
  • Karma: +4/-0
    • View Profile
Re: D-3 Women 2019
« Reply #37 on: November 12, 2019, 04:17:15 pm »
I saw the same thing with Emory going to California. The  large endowment of Emory and the one player on the roster from California must have been the reason, sarcasm intended.

I understand the Centre grumbling after going 21-0 and having to go to Ohio Northem. SOS is understood, but one of the problems for Centre is that teams don't want to schedule agreements with home and home. Teams want Centre to travel to their location to play, but not come to Danville, KY to reciprocate the following year. Centre has a strong endowment, but not UAA strong for travel.  Unverified rumor from UAA friends, but one or more UAA teams, besides Emory,  will play Centre in the future and agree to home and home schedule.

I still think Wheaton could make a deep run since they get to host and their bracket is winnable.


Offline PlaySimple

  • Second-stringer
  • **
  • Posts: 33
  • Karma: +2/-0
    • View Profile
Re: D-3 Women 2019
« Reply #38 on: November 13, 2019, 11:37:43 am »

I understand the Centre grumbling after going 21-0 and having to go to Ohio Northem. SOS is understood, but one of the problems for Centre is that teams don't want to schedule agreements with home and home. Teams want Centre to travel to their location to play, but not come to Danville, KY to reciprocate the following year. Centre has a strong endowment, but not UAA strong for travel.  Unverified rumor from UAA friends, but one or more UAA teams, besides Emory,  will play Centre in the future and agree to home and home schedule.

I do think that Centre has a legitimate gripe but that low SOS can't be denied. That said, I would like to see them beat Scranton and Ohio Northern beat Grove City to set up a second round game in which Centre beats ONU. I'll be pulling for Centre.

Centre should be able to beef up their SOS with some better scheduling. In looking at schools in the UAA that are 6 hours or less in travel from Centre there is Wash U, Emory, Case Western Reserve, and U of Chicago. Venture out a little more and there is Carnegie Mellon at 6.5-7 hours. In the CCIW, Illinois Wesleyan is 5.5-6 hours and Wheaton is probably 6+/- hours (my times probably seem off because IWU is further south in Illinois than Wheaton and U of Chicago but when going to the Chicago area schools from Kentucky you would drive straight up 65. To IWU you would need to take 65 to 74 and cut west). In the Ohio Athletic Conference there is Ohio Northern at a bit more than 4 hours away. Otterbein and Capital in Columbus are both decent as well and are probably 4 hours or less from Centre.

The UAA and CCIW schools that I mentioned don't shy away from tough competition and seek it out. Any of them would increase Centre's SOS. If those schools are concerned about going to Danville, KY for one game they should easily be able to find another on the front end or back end of the trip. The same is true for Centre when they go away.

All of the OAC schools could stand to bolster their SOS a bit so they should seemingly welcome playing Centre as long as Centre bolsters their schedule vs other opponents.

I still think Wheaton could make a deep run since they get to host and their bracket is winnable.

I heard from a second-hand source that some of Wheaton's starters are a bit nicked up with injuries. Also, there is a lot of the flu going around so perhaps they're not injured but maybe sick. I didn't verify that info but the person that told me would have no reason to lie about it. Again, second-hand info to me.

If Wheaton is a little nicked up, facing Webster in the opening game will be good. Webster has the lowest SOS of any team in the tournament. A probable second round match up vs CWRU will be more challenging, though. If Wheaton does make it into the second weekend, one thing in its favor is that they never play games on Sunday so they'll have an extra day of rest over whoever their third round opponent is. I know that one day isn't going to make a big difference but if there are injuries it could be helpful.

Offline ThankstoJack

  • Junior Varsity
  • *
  • Posts: 2
  • Karma: +0/-0
    • View Profile
Re: D-3 Women 2019
« Reply #39 on: November 13, 2019, 03:28:15 pm »
Quote
In the analysis, Otterbein and Wesleyan were listed as being "on the right side of the bubble." Both must have been on the wrong side of the bubble because neither was selected. I was actually surprised that Otterbein was mentioned as having a good chance due to losing to Ohio Northern in the OAC final. I honestly can't remember the last tie that the OAC had an at-large selection. The conference is decent but is not particularly strong. I would have been surprised if Otterbein had made the field and their omission was the correct decision by the committee.

I was more surprised by the omission of NESCAC member Wesleyan. Wesleyan had a 4-4-1 record versus ranked teams including a 2-1 win over Williams. What probably doomed Wesleyan was going 0-3 over the last 3 games.

First thank you for the kind words on the At Large predictions. I struggled mightily with Wesleyan's inclusion since neither their Win% or SoS merited that but I was mesmerized by their 4 ranked wins. In the analysis I published last week, Women's NCAA "At Large"  "https://d3soccer.prestosports.com/columns/jim-hutchinson/2019/womens-pool-c-early from 2011-2018 46 of 47 Pool C "candidates" with four or more wins were selected. With 20/20 hindsight, and a lot less sleep deprivation, I should have listed them at best as "Squarely on the Bubble ..." or probably "Wrong side ..." aka "Last n out ...".

Otterbein was a spreadsheet error, pure and simple. I had their projected SoS much higher than the Final Regional Ranking number. If I had the final result in my thinking I would have put them in the "Bubble" category.

And, not to make excuses, but I will :), we had a ton of things going on with the site that day, 20 hours at the keyboard was too much for this old brain. That said, this was my second year at this and I learned quite a bit. It is an intellectually challenging exercise, for sure.


Offline jaybird44

  • Starter
  • ***
  • Posts: 478
  • Karma: +36/-18
    • View Profile
Re: D-3 Women 2019
« Reply #40 on: November 13, 2019, 08:39:18 pm »
For those who would like to watch the games from the WashU pod this Saturday and Sunday, the watching is free at:

washubears.com
Click on "Live Broadcasts"

And, if you have Roku, Apple TV, Android TV, or Amazon Fire TV...look for the WashU logo on the intuitive interface and watch the action from your favorite TV!

Saturday: 
WashU vs. Maryville College (TN), 11 a.m. CST
Adrian vs. Wisconsin-Stevens Point, 1:30 p.m.

Sunday:
2nd Round game, 1:00 p.m.

Offline PlaySimple

  • Second-stringer
  • **
  • Posts: 33
  • Karma: +2/-0
    • View Profile
Re: D-3 Women 2019
« Reply #41 on: Yesterday at 02:58:14 pm »

First thank you for the kind words on the At Large predictions. I struggled mightily with Wesleyan's inclusion since neither their Win% or SoS merited that but I was mesmerized by their 4 ranked wins. In the analysis I published last week, Women's NCAA "At Large"  "https://d3soccer.prestosports.com/columns/jim-hutchinson/2019/womens-pool-c-early from 2011-2018 46 of 47 Pool C "candidates" with four or more wins were selected. With 20/20 hindsight, and a lot less sleep deprivation, I should have listed them at best as "Squarely on the Bubble ..." or probably "Wrong side ..." aka "Last n out ...".

Otterbein was a spreadsheet error, pure and simple. I had their projected SoS much higher than the Final Regional Ranking number. If I had the final result in my thinking I would have put them in the "Bubble" category.

And, not to make excuses, but I will :), we had a ton of things going on with the site that day, 20 hours at the keyboard was too much for this old brain. That said, this was my second year at this and I learned quite a bit. It is an intellectually challenging exercise, for sure.

Thank you for the time and effort that you put in to the analysis. I enjoyed reading all parts of it - the selection criteria, observations from the past, the at-large selection timeline and process, the color coded tables for pools A, B, and C, and mostly the Pool B At-Large Berth Analysis and Predictions. For the most part you were spot-on with your analysis. I was looking forward to also reading Some Final Observations and Comments but I'm sure that you have a lot on your plate.

I hope that this is something that you continue to do in the future. I think that your analysis is better than what the All White Kit does for women's DI. I wish that someone did the same for women's D2, and men's D1 & D2.