Author Topic: 2019 Great Lakes Region  (Read 7567 times)

Offline midwest

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Re: 2019 Great Lakes Region
« Reply #60 on: October 02, 2019, 11:50:26 pm »
Never mind . . .  OWU has recap posted on its website, scores in last minute of 2nd OT, that's why feed ends. My bad.

Offline southsidejet

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Re: 2019 Great Lakes Region
« Reply #61 on: October 03, 2019, 08:31:42 am »
Anyone at the OWU-John Carroll match tonight? Online scores are not updating and the end of the video cuts off, it looks like OWU scores in the last seconds. or maybe the feed just ends?
As you noted, OWU scored in the final minute of the second OT session to win 1-0. JCU had the possession advantage but OWU seemed slightly the more dangerous team when it did attack. JCU played a more direct game through the air and OWU indirect (which is definitely my preference).

Offline Domino1195

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Re: 2019 Great Lakes Region
« Reply #62 on: October 03, 2019, 09:06:20 am »
I did watch the entire game and replayed the goal several times as the camera focus was so far away - tried to see what happened after the throw was flicked on into the mixer.  All I could see was the ball hitting the ground and then OWU players were celebrating.

But this is exactly how I expect the GL region to play out this year.  There are a dozen teams capable of playing solid defense, giving up few quality looks and shots on goal, and waiting for a counter or a break - as OWU created last night.  I have seen 30? games so far this year and I do not think there is ONE team that is truly superior to the others in the region.  I see a lot of equality in skill, toughness and tactics - specifically defend first and wait for your break.  I believe any of the top12 teams in the region can beat any of the other top teams on any given day.

I will say that teams like ONU, JCU, and Kenyon seem to be better able to impose their will in a given game, more consistently - to be able to attack and defend.  Others in the region are heavily reliant on defend and counter.  My concern with JCU and Kenyon is with some of the goals I've seen them concede this year. But it's now conference play and every team has a chance to make their conference tourney.
« Last Edit: October 03, 2019, 10:54:14 am by Domino1195 »

Offline PaulNewman

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Re: 2019 Great Lakes Region
« Reply #63 on: October 03, 2019, 09:44:10 am »
Those of us who have followed GL for a while (and for far longer than me) know that you never count out OWU.  The Battling Bishops will always be in the mix, and while their current record doesn't look stellar they are in the very enviable position of holding what will almost certainly be two ranked wins (Calvin and JCU) come selection time with possibly a ranked draw or two, as well as another opportunity coming up with Kenyon.  In other words, OWU is in a really good position right now.

As for JCU, the law of averages (and maybe a bit of fatigue) finally caught up to the Blue Streaks.  After a slew of nailbiter wins they were due for a nailbiter loss.

I tend to agree with Domino that 12 teams could beat any of the others on a day, but with that said, I would put JCU, Kenyon, OWU and CWRU on the same level, with Mt. Union, ONU, CMU, PS-B and maybe Capital in the next tier.

Offline PaulNewman

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Re: 2019 Great Lakes Region
« Reply #64 on: October 03, 2019, 09:53:24 am »
I'd also be curious to know the percentages of a goal scored versus games ending in draws once contests get to the 106th minute (last five minutes).  My rough recollection is that goals often are scored in that final five minutes (sometimes a great goal, sometimes a team just willing itself to a goal, sometimes a fluke, sometimes the other team's fatigue, and/or some combination therein).

Offline Domino1195

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Re: 2019 Great Lakes Region
« Reply #65 on: October 08, 2019, 12:11:24 pm »
Coach's ranking today:
  • Kenyon
  • PSU-B
  • JCU
  • MTU
  • ONU
  • OWU
  • WILM
  • RHIT
  • WABASH
  • BW

The NCAA Regional Rankings will probably look very different, with low SOS teams like BW, Wilmington, Wabash and PSU-B either not making the rankings or being ranked lower than the coach's poll. The top 5 right now, IMO, would be JCU, ONU, OWU, Kenyon and PSU-B - in that order. And based on future SOS the first 4 mentioned have the greatest chance for an at-large bid - should they need it. For their sake teams like PSU-B and RHIT need to take care of business as there will be almost no chance for an at-large should these teams fail to win their conference tournament.

I just don't think Case and CMU will be in the running for a look at an at-large this year.  I don't see either team finishing above 3rd in the UAA.

As far as the NCAC goes, whose teams only play once this week, on Saturday: Denison hasn't beaten Kenyon in 8 years, but if they needed a signature win this weekend would be the time to do it. But should they lose I think they have a great chance to finish 7-2, 6-3 and take 3rd.  Much like Capital, Denison plays decent defense but struggles to score. Weather may be a factor in Ohio Saturday - an oddity this fall as we're currently in abnormally dry/minor drought conditions. OWU has Wooster at home - has beaten them 2-1 three consecutive years. Probably more of the same this year - a tight one.

OAC has become clearer with the top 3-4 separating from the rest of the conference.  Wednesday's contest between JCU and MTU will be a beaut.  Last year MTU was 8-0 - 8 straight shut-outs to start the year - heading into their match at JCU. JCU comes from behind to score the first goal of the year against MTU and then gets the winner in double OT. Only 1 YC and 19 total fouls last year - I'm taking the over on both totals this year.  MTU needs this game more than JCU as the SOS for JCU and ONU would be strong enough for a potential at-large if they don't win the conference tournament.  ONU has BW at home, off a great road win at Capital (first time since 2014 for BW), and then Marietta on Saturday. Winners of 8 straight, conceding only 3 goals during this streak, they should pick up 2 W's.  As for the rest of the conference . . .

Offline PaulNewman

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Re: 2019 Great Lakes Region
« Reply #66 on: October 08, 2019, 09:26:24 pm »
At this point IMO Kenyon is now the top team in the GL.  A ton of sophs and frosh have gotten valuable experience, and they are getting goals from a bunch of players.  Carpenter returned from injury to get limited minutes in the last game, but Penas (arguably the best player on the team and a playmaker) has not played a minute all season (and I assume may be out for his entire senior year) and Taylor (starting holding mid) has been out now for a while.

The problem for the Lords is that they could end up with zero ranked wins.  Seems like every year Kenyon is in a precarious spot because of SoS and/or ranked wins.  And every year when you look at their schedule (while not the strongest in the country by any means) one would think there are opportunities for a decent to good SoS and at least a few ranked games.  OWU on the other hand already has two ranked wins at a minimum.

All that said, I would be surprised if ANY GL team gets beyond the Sweet 16.

P.S. CWRU and especially CMU have struggled, but if either finishes 3rd or 4th (or maybe even 5th) they'll have a good shot at a Pool C because that would mean they likely picked up some ranked wins (in addition to whatever they already have).  The ranked wins and draws can end up just as big as SoS it seems at selection time.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2019, 09:34:52 pm by PaulNewman »

Offline Domino1195

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Re: 2019 Great Lakes Region
« Reply #67 on: October 09, 2019, 09:39:25 am »
Kenyon's in the same boat as they were in 2016, with a weak (relative to other GL teams) SOS.  Knowing how important SOS is to a team's NCAA ranking Kenyon would be 5th at best if the rankings were published today.  But by Oct 23rd Kenyon will have played OWU and that result will be critical.  But I wouldn't count out Wheaton or Centre for ranked wins.  Centre's last real challenge was a win this weekend against Marysville, but the South Atlantic is so strong not sure they can crack the top 8.  Wheaton has some challenging games left - should they win out I'd think they'd easily make it into the top 7 Central teams.

ONU, my pick for best GL team currently, "could" have 4 more wins by the first ranking, which would include a win over JCU. JCU has the toughest road over the next two weeks - could pick up 2 to 4 wins. Otterbein has a strong SOS and two away games at Baldwin Wallace and JCU - both currently ranked over them.  Should they pick up results they have a chance to be regionally ranked.

The NCAA Committee has some significant changes in personal that "could" affect GL bids.  Bianco is no longer the national chair - that now belonging to Serpone.  Bianco's GL seat belongs to asst. AD at Kenyon. New leadership, new rep for the GL, politics . . .

I don't see the GL getting 3 at-large bids this year - 2 maximum. The runner up in the NCAC and OAC have the greatest opportunity.  The South Atlantic - right now - looks more deserving than the GL.

Offline Gregory Sager

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Re: 2019 Great Lakes Region
« Reply #68 on: October 09, 2019, 10:56:57 am »
Kenyon's in the same boat as they were in 2016, with a weak (relative to other GL teams) SOS.  Knowing how important SOS is to a team's NCAA ranking Kenyon would be 5th at best if the rankings were published today.  But by Oct 23rd Kenyon will have played OWU and that result will be critical.  But I wouldn't count out Wheaton or Centre for ranked wins.  Centre's last real challenge was a win this weekend against Marysville, but the South Atlantic is so strong not sure they can crack the top 8.  Wheaton has some challenging games left - should they win out I'd think they'd easily make it into the top 7 Central teams.

You obviously haven't watched Wheaton much this season, especially lately. The Sonic Atmospheric Disturbance are struggling against every team they meet, and they're losing as many as they're winning. Never say never, of course, but right now they in no way resemble a team that's gonna win out.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2019, 11:00:40 am by Gregory Sager »
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Offline PaulNewman

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Re: 2019 Great Lakes Region
« Reply #69 on: October 09, 2019, 11:35:50 am »
I was just expressing my own personal opinion about the current top team, separate from the regional ranking criteria (which I acknowledged is a potential big problem for the Lords). 

And yes, at the start of the season one could be forgiven for thinking Colorado College, Wheaton and Centre would have decent chances to be ranked come November, and now all three are unlikely.

Offline Domino1195

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Re: 2019 Great Lakes Region
« Reply #70 on: October 09, 2019, 12:37:22 pm »
Kenyon's in the same boat as they were in 2016, with a weak (relative to other GL teams) SOS.  Knowing how important SOS is to a team's NCAA ranking Kenyon would be 5th at best if the rankings were published today.  But by Oct 23rd Kenyon will have played OWU and that result will be critical.  But I wouldn't count out Wheaton or Centre for ranked wins.  Centre's last real challenge was a win this weekend against Marysville, but the South Atlantic is so strong not sure they can crack the top 8.  Wheaton has some challenging games left - should they win out I'd think they'd easily make it into the top 7 Central teams.

You obviously haven't watched Wheaton much this season, especially lately. The Sonic Atmospheric Disturbance are struggling against every team they meet, and they're losing as many as they're winning. Never say never, of course, but right now they in no way resemble a team that's gonna win out.

That's why I said "should" they win out. Right now they're in that second group below Calvin, UC, Wash U and NP, and should they win the next three I'd think they'd be ranked come Oct 23.

Offline Gregory Sager

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Re: 2019 Great Lakes Region
« Reply #71 on: October 09, 2019, 01:01:56 pm »
Kenyon's in the same boat as they were in 2016, with a weak (relative to other GL teams) SOS.  Knowing how important SOS is to a team's NCAA ranking Kenyon would be 5th at best if the rankings were published today.  But by Oct 23rd Kenyon will have played OWU and that result will be critical.  But I wouldn't count out Wheaton or Centre for ranked wins.  Centre's last real challenge was a win this weekend against Marysville, but the South Atlantic is so strong not sure they can crack the top 8.  Wheaton has some challenging games left - should they win out I'd think they'd easily make it into the top 7 Central teams.

You obviously haven't watched Wheaton much this season, especially lately. The Sonic Atmospheric Disturbance are struggling against every team they meet, and they're losing as many as they're winning. Never say never, of course, but right now they in no way resemble a team that's gonna win out.

That's why I said "should" they win out. Right now they're in that second group below Calvin, UC, Wash U and NP, and should they win the next three I'd think they'd be ranked come Oct 23.

I don't think that Wheaton's in a second group. I think that Wheaton's in a third group. Calvin, Chicago, and NPU are clearly better, Wheaton's tie with Chicago notwithstanding. North Central appears to be better as well, as NCC beat Wheaton on Wheaton's home pitch. Hope, Kalamazoo, and Adrian may be better as well. Wheaton's more on par with Elmhurst, which has actually defeated Wheaton already by two goals. Wash U is harder to place; Wheaton beat the Bears, but it was at Wheaton and it appeared to be at least evenly-played (Wash U put 14 shots on goal to Wheaton's 8). On a neutral pitch I'd take Wash U anytime, especially lately.

Having said all that, it doesn't make me one bit less nervous about NPU's trip to Wheaton on the last night of the regular season. Won-lost records and matchup issues tend to get thrown out the window in a rivalry game, and Wheaton will come out with its ears pinned back playing at home against archrival NPU in front of a couple thousand geeked-up Wheaton fans in orange.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2019, 01:04:15 pm by Gregory Sager »
"Talent is God-given. Be humble. Fame is man-given. Be grateful. Conceit is self-given. Be careful..Ē -- John Wooden

Offline Domino1195

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Re: 2019 Great Lakes Region
« Reply #72 on: October 09, 2019, 06:23:49 pm »
Medaille hasnít beaten PSU-B since 2011?? Up early 1-0 off a corner. Not sure PSU has trailed this year. We shall see . . .

Offline Mid-Atlantic Fan

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Re: 2019 Great Lakes Region
« Reply #73 on: October 10, 2019, 09:01:28 am »
Medaille hasnít beaten PSU-B since 2011?? Up early 1-0 off a corner. Not sure PSU has trailed this year. We shall see . . .

1-0 final correct? Behrend will win the conference again anyways but if they don't things could get interesting for everyone in this region.

Offline PaulNewman

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Re: 2019 Great Lakes Region
« Reply #74 on: October 10, 2019, 10:16:57 am »
JCU since becoming a national darling has slumped to 1-2-2 in the their last 5 (which admittedly has been a tough schedule stretch with the exception of the lone win versus lowly Muskingum).  The Blue Streaks with multiple ranked wins and a sky-high SoS should still be fine for a NCAA Pool C if needed, but one can wonder if JCU is just in a lull or more of a fade.  Did the Streaks peak too early? Or did the percentages just catch up with them in cliffhanger-type tilts?  JCU only had a single shot on goal in 110 minutes Mt Union last night.  The Raiders have proven to be a very stout defensive outfit, but from what I saw JCU dominated play and yet could not create many decent chances despite being in the Mt. Union half for much of the contest.  JCU also, for example, only had 5 shots total versus CWRU.  I have noted before JCU's reliance on Turrittin and set pieces and they aren't going to get far in the NCAA tourney if they can't score from the run of play.  JCU has three more relatively tough OAC games in a row before the schedule lightens up at the end.

Based on Domino's insights I took a closer look at ONU.  The Polar Bears are indeed having a fine season and should rack up three more wins in their next three before they end the season with a trio of more competitive foes.  Mt Union is also proving to be a legit contender in the OAC although one wonders if they can produce enough offense in big matches as the season progresses.