Author Topic: 2019 Pool C  (Read 14249 times)

Offline MANDGSU

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #255 on: November 06, 2019, 05:41:26 pm »
My 1st stab at my mock Bracket

1. Muhlenberg vs. MIT
2. Salisbury vs. Framingham State
3. Union vs. Western New England
4. Delaware Valley vs. Ithaca

1. UMHB vs. Redlands
2. Chapman vs. Linfield
3. Bridgewater (Va.) vs. Wesley
4. B-SC vs. Huntingdon

1. Mount Union vs. SUNY-Maritime
2. Wheaton (Ill.) vs. Hanover
3. Case Western vs. Wabash
4. Brockport vs. Susquehanna

1. UW-Whitewater vs. Hope
2. Wartburg vs. Aurora
3. St. Johns vs. Martin Luther
4. Bethel vs. Lake Forest

I pray to the football gods that they don't do this.  If that's what they're going to do with the island teams, I'd rather they just make Redlands and Chapman play each other in round 1.  Redlands, with their current criteria doesn't deserve to play the top seed in the tournament because that's the convenient thing to do. 

Ditto with your UWW/Hope pairing.  That's not a proper first round game for those teams given where they are ranked today.

If the committee was to open pocket book, it could have BS-C and Huntingdon each fly to UMHB and Redlands, respectively. If we really want to get fancy, not considering historical context of matchup. Linfield to UMHB, BS-C to Redlands, and Huntingdon to Chapman. Also, flip the seeding so that if BS-C and Huntingdon were to win, there would be no need for flight and the same would apply for both Redlands and Chapman not having a flight 2nd round.

Also, Wesley and Delaware Valley could be switch to reward H2H winner, but the possibility of Wesley flying to Linfield gives me a chuckle.

It scenario seems like you are trying to force feed Muhlenberg in as the #1 seed in the East. And Hope to Whitewater would be very unfair to both parties.

Doesn't matter, you can flip the Mount match-up and Muhlenberg match-up, but this scenario saves the most money for NCAA. However, if you do that, that would require multiple flights 3rd round and this bracket eliminates that. Honestly, playing Mount round 3 or 4 isn't a big deal for me, a team from the East would have to play them or UMHB at some point and beat them.

Offline MANDGSU

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #256 on: November 06, 2019, 05:52:24 pm »
Here's my first stab. I've never done this before, so I'm open to any feedback/criticism.

Salisbury vs. SUNY Maritime
Delaware Valley vs. Western New England
Bridgewater vs. Brockport
Susquehanna vs. Framingham State

Mount Union vs. Hanover
North Central vs. Case Western Reserve
Muhlenberg vs. MIT
Wesley vs. Union

Mary Hardin–Baylor vs. Monmouth
Berry vs. Huntingdon
Chapman vs. Linfield
Redlands vs. Bethel

Wisconsin–Whitewater vs. Martin Luther
St. John's vs. Aurora
Wheaton vs. Wabash
Wartburg vs. Hope

I actually like this...gives you 5 guranteed flights, through round 2 and a possible 8 if the Mount, Wheaton, and Whitewater were to get upset, which is a gamble I'd think the committee would be willing to take. This bracket also takes into consideration North Central (Ill.) being the last team in as oppose to Ithaca.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2019, 05:55:22 pm by MANDGSU »

Offline Ralph Turner

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #257 on: November 06, 2019, 05:56:51 pm »
Are we "once ranked, always ranked" in football this year?

Sadly, no.
With all of these 10-team conferences playing 9 conference games, it is hard to get a handle on how good teams are.

It makes me grateful for baseball, where we may have 15 games among 10 ranked opponents in a 40 game season!

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #258 on: November 06, 2019, 06:37:00 pm »
I'm going to do a quick and dirty mock Pool C selection here this week, using today's regional rankings. 

First the mechanics:
- There are 27 Pool A bids that go to champions of qualifying conferences. 
- Once the Pool A bids are delivered, zero Pool B bid will be awarded to teams that do not belong to qualifying conferences as there are no such teams or conferences left.
- That leaves 5 spots left which will continue to be designated as Pool C.  Everybody who is not already in the tournament to this point is eligible for these bids. 
- The at-large bids are determined by comparing the top-ranked teams remaining from each region (once those rankings have been scrubbed of the automatic qualifiers) using the selection/seeding criteria (check the handbook or FAQs on D3football.com for a primer on all of that).  Each committee member ranks those four teams, points get counted poll style, and the team with the most points goes in. 
- The next team available from the region of the team that just got selected steps in and the comparing/voting process repeats until the field is complete. 
Good?  Great.  Let's do this. 

Pool A
The projected 27 Pool A's as of this moment:


Teams in the gold boxes have clinched and are in, everybody else is still projected.  Most of the conferences left to be decided just need a conference leader to win a game they are heavily favored in this week to seal the deal, others have toss up games to deal with.  In those cases, I've projected the teams that are win-and-in over teams that need help to get the AQ (this is Berry's scenario).   

Now, we scrub the rankings from teams that I've projected in, and we are left with:

East: Wesley, Ithaca, Cortland, WPI, Wilkes
North: North Central, Baldwin Wallace, John Carroll, WashU, Denison
South: Susquehanna, Berry, Randolph-Macon, Texas Lutheran, Hardin-Simmons
West: Redlands, Bethel, Central, UW-Oshkosh

These lists seems pretty solid.  There may be some shuffling down the road amongst the top of each region's list (looking at you East), but the spots where there's weirdness or a high concentration of teams from one league are far enough down on the list that they shouldn't spin this projection off into something completely unreasonable. 

And off we go. 

Pool C:
Round 1:
2E Wesley - 6-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.577 SOS (23rd)
3N North Central - 7-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.496 (128th)
4S Susquehanna - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.565 (36th)
4W Redlands - 7-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.620 (6th)
(Redlands, Wesley, North Central, Susquehanna)

Among the primary criteria, Redlands is tied for the top of this group in win percentage, they have defeated W6, their lone loss is to W3, and they have the best SOS on the board by a significant margin.  Wesley and North Central also have RRO wins, but Wesley's 4OT game with E3 DelVal and North Central's dismantling of W8 WashU are, to me, not as impressive as Redlands' handling of Linfield, who have been great all season outside their game with Redlands.  Bulldogs are my first selection. 

Round 2:
2E Wesley - 6-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.577 (23rd)
3N North Central - 7-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.496 (128th)
4S Susquehanna - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.565 (36th)
6W Bethel - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.540 (55th)
(Wesley, North Central, Susquehanna, Bethel)

Bethel joins the party with a similar win percentage with their lone loss and RRO result being a 19-0 shutdown against W5 St. John's.  At this stage of the game, I have a strong preference for teams that have RRO wins, which leads me back to Wesley and North Central.  In the event that the committee does have to judge Wesley and North Central at the same time, Christopher Newport may provide a rare piece of common opponent data between teams from different regions.  I don't know how much weight a common opponent results from Weeks 1 and 11 should carry, but if I'm Wesley I probably don't want to play a competitive four quarter with the Captains if I can at all avoid it.  For now, CNU has a different impact on this decision, as they are an anchor (ha) on North Central's SOS- to the degree that I'm going to choose Wesley here. 

Round 3:
6E Ithaca - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.520 (95th)
3N North Central - 7-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.496 (128th)
4S Susquehanna - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.565 (36th)
6W Bethel - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.540 (55th)
(North Central, Susquehanna, Bethel, Ithaca)

Per the last round, you can probably see that I favor North Central above the teams that do not have RRO wins.  I have to check in with Ithaca to make sure that they don't beat North Central and...they do not.  Ithaca does not have an RRO win (for now), their SOS is not overwhelmingly larger than North Central's (for now), and they have identical win percentages.  The WashU win gives North Central a clear edge here- one that isn't so clear if/when Hobart pops up in the East rankings. 

Round 4:
6E Ithaca - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.520 (95th)
5N Baldwin Wallace - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.504 (115th)
4S Susquehanna - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.565 (36th)
6W Bethel - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.540 (55th)
(Susquehanna, Bethel, Ithaca, Baldwin Wallace)

Now I've got a board where nobody has an RRO win.  This is where things always get dicey for me.  I see that Susquehanna has the best SOS on a board with four identical win percentages.  Susquehanna lost 24-17 in OT to S2.  That's a pretty solid result.  Ithaca lost to E4 by 10, Baldwin Wallace was noncompetitive to N1 (most are, but when you're in this position, it helps to at least show a pulse in that game), and Bethel was shut out by W5.  Best SOS, best "result" IMO...the River Hawks are my choice here. 

Round 5:
6E Ithaca - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.520 (95th)
5N Baldwin Wallace - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.504 (115th)
6S Berry 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.481 (158th)
6W Bethel - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.540 (55th)
(Bethel, Ithaca, Baldwin Wallace, Berry)

Have to do a quick evaluation on newcomer Berry.  The Vikings have the same kind of profile that we've seen in the last couple of rounds.  Just one loss, fortunately to a ranked opponent.  But Berry's SOS suffers (largely from Maryville's downturn this year, and their loss is kind of a deceptively close 28-15 game to S9.  That definitely doesn't stack up well with the teams that were already on the board, so Berry isn't going to step right over the others and in to the tournament.  This is really a coin toss between Bethel and Ithaca.  I'm going to give the edge to Bethel on the back of their slight SOS advantage, but you can put Ithaca in the field in this spot and it wouldn't be controversial.  I went back and forth on this a few times before finalizing the post. 

There it is.  That's my five Pool C's if I had to pick them today.
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Offline wally_wabash

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #259 on: November 06, 2019, 06:40:51 pm »
Are we "once ranked, always ranked" in football this year?

Sadly, no.
With all of these 10-team conferences playing 9 conference games, it is hard to get a handle on how good teams are.

It makes me grateful for baseball, where we may have 15 games among 10 ranked opponents in a 40 game season!

It is a bummer because they're ignoring useful data points in an exercise that is already starved for data. 

Your point about 10 team leagues playing full round robins also speaks to the decreasing utility of SOS, which was already not a great metric as the NCAA calculates it, but is made less so because most teams are playing in 90% closed systems. 
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Offline USee

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #260 on: November 06, 2019, 07:01:05 pm »
Pat/Wally/Keith/whomever,

At one point in the past I remember seeing that the National Committee picks 4 top seeds and then builds geographic brackets. In the Q&A it says they pick the top 8 teams and build geographic brackets. Which is it? both?

I will admit a lack of understanding and history around the 1 seed discussions, primarily because my team has not been in this position very often to pay as close attention.

That said. It seems the 1 seed locks, based on today's snapshot (sure to change, even dramatically) are UMHB (defending champ), UMU (national finalist) and UWW (undefeated with playoff history). The 4th 1 seed is up for debate. Among the undefeated contenders we have (ranked in order of CURRENT SOS):

1: Wheaton (8-0), .593 2-0 RRO (North #2)
2: Wartburg(8-0),  .565, 0-0(West #2)
3: Muhlenberg (8-0),  .562 1-0 RRO (South #2)
4: Chapman (7-0),  .536, 1-0 RRO (West #3)
5: Salisbury (7-0),  .509 1-0 RRO (East #1)
6: Bridgewater (8-0),  .502 0-0 (RRO South #3)

Obviously we can cross off Bridgewater and Chapman, who are behind others on this list and wouldn't be considered.

That leaves:
1: Wheaton (8-0), .593 2-0 RRO (North #2)
2: Wartburg(8-0),  .565, 0-0(West #2)
3: Muhlenberg (8-0),  .562 1-0 RRO (South #2)
4: Salisbury (7-0),  .509 2-0 RRO (East #1)

Based on criteria, Wheaton is the next best team with only Salisbury matching their RRO but not close on SOS. Both teams will decline in SOS over the last 2 weeks so that spread seems unlikely to close and this seems a similar picture between the two. Muhlenberg has only 1 RRO band their SOS will decline a similar amount to Wheaton's. Muhlenberg does have a playoff result from last year (L @UMU).

Many are assuming Muhlenberg or Salisbury are the more likely pick as a 4th 1 seed. I am not seeing it in the critereria, unless Muhlenberg's playoff result trumps everything else. Salisbury also may lose an RRO when UWO plays UWW in week 11. Wartburg may end up with the strongest SOS of this group but may have no all important RRO if they beat Central, knocking them from rankings (small chance Monmouth appears but I doubt it). If this choice is criteria based, what am I missing?
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Offline MANDGSU

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #261 on: November 06, 2019, 07:10:02 pm »
Pat/Wally/Keith/whomever,

At one point in the past I remember seeing that the National Committee picks 4 top seeds and then builds geographic brackets. In the Q&A it says they pick the top 8 teams and build geographic brackets. Which is it? both?

I will admit a lack of understanding and history around the 1 seed discussions, primarily because my team has not been in this position very often to pay as close attention.

That said. It seems the 1 seed locks, based on today's snapshot (sure to change, even dramatically) are UMHB (defending champ), UMU (national finalist) and UWW (undefeated with playoff history). The 4th 1 seed is up for debate. Among the undefeated contenders we have (ranked in order of CURRENT SOS):

1: Wheaton (8-0), .593 2-0 RRO (North #2)
2: Wartburg(8-0),  .565, 0-0(West #2)
3: Muhlenberg (8-0),  .562 1-0 RRO (South #2)
4: Chapman (7-0),  .536, 1-0 RRO (West #3)
5: Salisbury (7-0),  .509 1-0 RRO (East #1)
6: Bridgewater (8-0),  .502 0-0 (RRO South #3)

Obviously we can cross off Bridgewater and Chapman, who are behind others on this list and wouldn't be considered.

That leaves:
1: Wheaton (8-0), .593 2-0 RRO (North #2)
2: Wartburg(8-0),  .565, 0-0(West #2)
3: Muhlenberg (8-0),  .562 1-0 RRO (South #2)
4: Salisbury (7-0),  .509 2-0 RRO (East #1)

Based on criteria, Wheaton is the next best team with only Salisbury matching their RRO but not close on SOS. Both teams will decline in SOS over the last 2 weeks so that spread seems unlikely to close and this seems a similar picture between the two. Muhlenberg has only 1 RRO band their SOS will decline a similar amount to Wheaton's. Muhlenberg does have a playoff result from last year (L @UMU).

Many are assuming Muhlenberg or Salisbury are the more likely pick as a 4th 1 seed. I am not seeing it in the critereria, unless Muhlenberg's playoff result trumps everything else. Salisbury also may lose an RRO when UWO plays UWW in week 11. Wartburg may end up with the strongest SOS of this group but may have no all important RRO if they beat Central, knocking them from rankings (small chance Monmouth appears but I doubt it). If this choice is criteria based, what am I missing?

This is a logical piece for East/North/South Bracket: No Flights until 3rd round.
1. Mount Union vs. SUNY-Maritime
2. Salisbury vs. Framingham State
3. Union vs. Western New England
4. Delaware Valley vs. Ithaca/Case Western


1. Wheaton (Ill.) vs. Hanover
2. Muhlenberg vs. MIT
3  Brockport vs. Susquehanna
4. Case Western/North Central vs. Wabash
« Last Edit: November 06, 2019, 07:13:50 pm by MANDGSU »

Offline USee

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #262 on: November 06, 2019, 07:13:14 pm »
I'm going to do a quick and dirty mock Pool C selection here this week, using today's regional rankings. 

First the mechanics:
- There are 27 Pool A bids that go to champions of qualifying conferences. 
- Once the Pool A bids are delivered, zero Pool B bid will be awarded to teams that do not belong to qualifying conferences as there are no such teams or conferences left.
- That leaves 5 spots left which will continue to be designated as Pool C.  Everybody who is not already in the tournament to this point is eligible for these bids. 
- The at-large bids are determined by comparing the top-ranked teams remaining from each region (once those rankings have been scrubbed of the automatic qualifiers) using the selection/seeding criteria (check the handbook or FAQs on D3football.com for a primer on all of that).  Each committee member ranks those four teams, points get counted poll style, and the team with the most points goes in. 
- The next team available from the region of the team that just got selected steps in and the comparing/voting process repeats until the field is complete. 
Good?  Great.  Let's do this. 

Pool A
The projected 27 Pool A's as of this moment:


Teams in the gold boxes have clinched and are in, everybody else is still projected.  Most of the conferences left to be decided just need a conference leader to win a game they are heavily favored in this week to seal the deal, others have toss up games to deal with.  In those cases, I've projected the teams that are win-and-in over teams that need help to get the AQ (this is Berry's scenario).   

Now, we scrub the rankings from teams that I've projected in, and we are left with:

East: Wesley, Ithaca, Cortland, WPI, Wilkes
North: North Central, Baldwin Wallace, John Carroll, WashU, Denison
South: Susquehanna, Berry, Randolph-Macon, Texas Lutheran, Hardin-Simmons
West: Redlands, Bethel, Central, UW-Oshkosh

These lists seems pretty solid.  There may be some shuffling down the road amongst the top of each region's list (looking at you East), but the spots where there's weirdness or a high concentration of teams from one league are far enough down on the list that they shouldn't spin this projection off into something completely unreasonable. 

And off we go. 

Pool C:
Round 1:
2E Wesley - 6-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.577 SOS (23rd)
3N North Central - 7-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.496 (128th)
4S Susquehanna - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.565 (36th)
4W Redlands - 7-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.620 (6th)
(Redlands, Wesley, North Central, Susquehanna)

Among the primary criteria, Redlands is tied for the top of this group in win percentage, they have defeated W6, their lone loss is to W3, and they have the best SOS on the board by a significant margin.  Wesley and North Central also have RRO wins, but Wesley's 4OT game with E3 DelVal and North Central's dismantling of W8 WashU are, to me, not as impressive as Redlands' handling of Linfield, who have been great all season outside their game with Redlands.  Bulldogs are my first selection. 

Round 2:
2E Wesley - 6-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.577 (23rd)
3N North Central - 7-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.496 (128th)
4S Susquehanna - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.565 (36th)
6W Bethel - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.540 (55th)
(Wesley, North Central, Susquehanna, Bethel)

Bethel joins the party with a similar win percentage with their lone loss and RRO result being a 19-0 shutdown against W5 St. John's.  At this stage of the game, I have a strong preference for teams that have RRO wins, which leads me back to Wesley and North Central.  In the event that the committee does have to judge Wesley and North Central at the same time, Christopher Newport may provide a rare piece of common opponent data between teams from different regions.  I don't know how much weight a common opponent results from Weeks 1 and 11 should carry, but if I'm Wesley I probably don't want to play a competitive four quarter with the Captains if I can at all avoid it.  For now, CNU has a different impact on this decision, as they are an anchor (ha) on North Central's SOS- to the degree that I'm going to choose Wesley here. 

Round 3:
6E Ithaca - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.520 (95th)
3N North Central - 7-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.496 (128th)
4S Susquehanna - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.565 (36th)
6W Bethel - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.540 (55th)
(North Central, Susquehanna, Bethel, Ithaca)

Per the last round, you can probably see that I favor North Central above the teams that do not have RRO wins.  I have to check in with Ithaca to make sure that they don't beat North Central and...they do not.  Ithaca does not have an RRO win (for now), their SOS is not overwhelmingly larger than North Central's (for now), and they have identical win percentages.  The WashU win gives North Central a clear edge here- one that isn't so clear if/when Hobart pops up in the East rankings. 

Round 4:
6E Ithaca - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.520 (95th)
5N Baldwin Wallace - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.504 (115th)
4S Susquehanna - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.565 (36th)
6W Bethel - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.540 (55th)
(Susquehanna, Bethel, Ithaca, Baldwin Wallace)

Now I've got a board where nobody has an RRO win.  This is where things always get dicey for me.  I see that Susquehanna has the best SOS on a board with four identical win percentages.  Susquehanna lost 24-17 in OT to S2.  That's a pretty solid result.  Ithaca lost to E4 by 10, Baldwin Wallace was noncompetitive to N1 (most are, but when you're in this position, it helps to at least show a pulse in that game), and Bethel was shut out by W5.  Best SOS, best "result" IMO...the River Hawks are my choice here. 

Round 5:
6E Ithaca - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.520 (95th)
5N Baldwin Wallace - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.504 (115th)
6S Berry 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.481 (158th)
6W Bethel - 7-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.540 (55th)
(Bethel, Ithaca, Baldwin Wallace, Berry)

Have to do a quick evaluation on newcomer Berry.  The Vikings have the same kind of profile that we've seen in the last couple of rounds.  Just one loss, fortunately to a ranked opponent.  But Berry's SOS suffers (largely from Maryville's downturn this year, and their loss is kind of a deceptively close 28-15 game to S9.  That definitely doesn't stack up well with the teams that were already on the board, so Berry isn't going to step right over the others and in to the tournament.  This is really a coin toss between Bethel and Ithaca.  I'm going to give the edge to Bethel on the back of their slight SOS advantage, but you can put Ithaca in the field in this spot and it wouldn't be controversial.  I went back and forth on this a few times before finalizing the post. 

There it is.  That's my five Pool C's if I had to pick them today.

This is solid research and reporting WW. Do you get the sense the committee looks at results of otherwise tied teams the way you do in the late rounds here? I think its invaluable but I have never seen it reported they do that. This process also highlights the tenuous nature of Pool C when teams like Bethel and NCC are a Hobart ranking away from the bubble, yikes.
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Offline smedindy

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #263 on: November 06, 2019, 07:47:57 pm »
This shows that no matter how good we think Ithaca (or Berry) is, they gotta win their league to ensure entrance.

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #264 on: November 06, 2019, 07:53:51 pm »
Do you get the sense the committee looks at results of otherwise tied teams the way you do in the late rounds here? I think its invaluable but I have never seen it reported they do that. This process also highlights the tenuous nature of Pool C when teams like Bethel and NCC are a Hobart ranking away from the bubble, yikes.

I think they do, and they should!  When you've got four teams in front of you and none have quality wins (specifically, wins against ranked opponents), you have dive into the deep end to try and find ways to differentiate them.  I think the language in the criteria encourages that kind of analysis ("results" vs ranked opponents as opposed to "win pct vs ranked opponents").  There's so little allowable information to be used here, that you have to go down those rabbit holes to get what you need. 
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Offline Baldini

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #265 on: November 07, 2019, 05:23:17 pm »
OK using Wally's selections here are my 8 quads. Each quad is listed 1st to 4th, with the first playing the fourth and the second playing the third. 3 flights in the first round with one, but possibly 2 in the second round.

1.) Mount Union, Union, W. New England, SUNY-Maritime
2.) Salisbury, Delaware Valley, Brockport, Framingham St.

3.) Wheaton, Hope, Bethel, Hanover
4.) Muhlenberg, Wesley, MIT, CWR

5.) MH-B, Bridgewater (Va.), Susquehanna, Huntingdon
6.) Chapman, Redlands, Birmingham-Southern, Linfield

7.) UW-Whitewater, North Central, Wabash, Martin Luther or Monmouth
8.) Wartburg, St. John's, Aurora, Martin Luther or Monmouth 
« Last Edit: November 07, 2019, 08:45:25 pm by Baldini »

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #266 on: November 07, 2019, 09:23:01 pm »
OK using Wally's selections here are my 8 quads. Each quad is listed 1st to 4th, with the first playing the fourth and the second playing the third. 3 flights in the first round with one, but possibly 2 in the second round.

1.) Mount Union, Union, W. New England, SUNY-Maritime
2.) Salisbury, Delaware Valley, Brockport, Framingham St.

3.) Wheaton, Hope, Bethel, Hanover
4.) Muhlenberg, Wesley, MIT, CWR

5.) MH-B, Bridgewater (Va.), Susquehanna, Huntingdon
6.) Chapman, Redlands, Birmingham-Southern, Linfield

7.) UW-Whitewater, North Central, Wabash, Martin Luther or Monmouth
8.) Wartburg, St. John's, Aurora, Martin Luther or Monmouth

Probably not realistic with 3 flights but I like it. You could swap Wabash and Bethel and eliminate a flight all the while angering NCC fans
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Offline wally_wabash

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #267 on: November 07, 2019, 09:38:01 pm »
Pat/Wally/Keith/whomever,

At one point in the past I remember seeing that the National Committee picks 4 top seeds and then builds geographic brackets. In the Q&A it says they pick the top 8 teams and build geographic brackets. Which is it? both?

Certainly, my understanding is that they identify the top 8 seeds and build 8, 4-team pods.  Then they'll pair off those pods for your four "regions".

I will admit a lack of understanding and history around the 1 seed discussions, primarily because my team has not been in this position very often to pay as close attention.

That said. It seems the 1 seed locks, based on today's snapshot (sure to change, even dramatically) are UMHB (defending champ), UMU (national finalist) and UWW (undefeated with playoff history). The 4th 1 seed is up for debate. Among the undefeated contenders we have (ranked in order of CURRENT SOS):

1: Wheaton (8-0), .593 2-0 RRO (North #2)
2: Wartburg(8-0),  .565, 0-0(West #2)
3: Muhlenberg (8-0),  .562 1-0 RRO (South #2)
4: Chapman (7-0),  .536, 1-0 RRO (West #3)
5: Salisbury (7-0),  .509 1-0 RRO (East #1)
6: Bridgewater (8-0),  .502 0-0 (RRO South #3)

Obviously we can cross off Bridgewater and Chapman, who are behind others on this list and wouldn't be considered.

That leaves:
1: Wheaton (8-0), .593 2-0 RRO (North #2)
2: Wartburg(8-0),  .565, 0-0(West #2)
3: Muhlenberg (8-0),  .562 1-0 RRO (South #2)
4: Salisbury (7-0),  .509 2-0 RRO (East #1)

Based on criteria, Wheaton is the next best team with only Salisbury matching their RRO but not close on SOS. Both teams will decline in SOS over the last 2 weeks so that spread seems unlikely to close and this seems a similar picture between the two. Muhlenberg has only 1 RRO band their SOS will decline a similar amount to Wheaton's. Muhlenberg does have a playoff result from last year (L @UMU).

Many are assuming Muhlenberg or Salisbury are the more likely pick as a 4th 1 seed. I am not seeing it in the critereria, unless Muhlenberg's playoff result trumps everything else. Salisbury also may lose an RRO when UWO plays UWW in week 11. Wartburg may end up with the strongest SOS of this group but may have no all important RRO if they beat Central, knocking them from rankings (small chance Monmouth appears but I doubt it). If this choice is criteria based, what am I missing?

Wheaton certainly presents a very strong case for one of the top four seeds.  I'm going to avoid speculation on that until all of the SOS data comes in.  I think those gaps will close over the last two weeks, perhaps to a point where Salisbury and Muhlenberg don't appear as far behind as they do now.  As it sits, were I on the committee, I'd probably advocate for Wheaton here, but that might not be the case in 9 days. 
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Offline Baldini

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #268 on: November 07, 2019, 09:57:34 pm »
OK using Wally's selections here are my 8 quads. Each quad is listed 1st to 4th, with the first playing the fourth and the second playing the third. 3 flights in the first round with one, but possibly 2 in the second round.

1.) Mount Union, Union, W. New England, SUNY-Maritime
2.) Salisbury, Delaware Valley, Brockport, Framingham St.

3.) Wheaton, Hope, Bethel, Hanover
4.) Muhlenberg, Wesley, MIT, CWR

5.) MH-B, Bridgewater (Va.), Susquehanna, Huntingdon
6.) Chapman, Redlands, Birmingham-Southern, Linfield

7.) UW-Whitewater, North Central, Wabash, Martin Luther or Monmouth
8.) Wartburg, St. John's, Aurora, Martin Luther or Monmouth

Probably not realistic with 3 flights but I like it. You could swap Wabash and Bethel and eliminate a flight all the while angering NCC fans

You are right about eliminating a flight. It doesn't look right as is, maybe I am trying to hard to put a quad in So. Cal.

Offline UfanBill

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #269 on: November 07, 2019, 10:50:10 pm »
As a Union fan it would be great to finally see that absent but seemingly inevitable Mt. Union vs Union game. Of course MTU would have to get by SUNY-Maritime first.  ;D
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