Author Topic: 2019 Pool C  (Read 14248 times)

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #300 on: November 10, 2019, 05:42:23 pm »
When are you going to bless us with an update on your thoughts WW.

I've had the chance to go through this week's results in each region now and Week 10 was quite the scrambler.  Not so much at the top of the rankings- those are going to be relatively unchanged from last week, IMO.  But the bottom of the rankings are really messy in each region.  On top of Week 10 results, this week the RACs will take into account vRRO data, a key piece of primary criteria that was not used last week. 

- In the East, Ithaca has bombed out (sorry), and I'm not sure how that will affect Union going forward.  I had seen a path here for Union to go up to 2 and Ithaca to go ahead of Wesley for the top at-large spot in the region, but that's over now.  It may be that Union's ceiling now is 4 in the East.  At the bottom, Wilkes and WPI were strange inclusions last week.  Wilkes lost, so that's not going to complicate things this week.  WPI is still there, and I think will still be ranked even with a low SOS and no vRROs to work with.  They're an outlier.  The real question is does Hobart come in, and if so how is that Week 1 win over Brockport going to work?  I think Hobart has to be there this week.  The last spot I think is up for grabs between Stevenson, Endicott, and Framingham.  Could be any of those three. 

- Down South, the bottom is just as messy.  The South is running out of even two loss teams to rank. I expect Trinity to take B-SC's place and then really not much other movement there.  Randolph-Macon may stick around because there really just aren't other teams available. 

- In the North, you have to hold your nose and rank teams with all kinds of bad SOS.  I don't know how the North's SOS, like as an entire region, is so poor.  You also run into the problem where you run out of rankable two loss teams.  I think Wabash stays in, WashU goes out, Hanover is definitely coming in, and then it's a toss up for me between OWU or BW.  I will say that as 3-loss teams, WashU and Heidelberg aren't *terrible*, but I believe the RACs as a whole last week sent a message that win percentage is huge and I think a third loss may be disqualifying regardless of the other primary criteria. 

- In the West, I think the interesting thing to watch is where Wartburg lands relative to Redlands.  Redlands' floor is Linfield and Wartburg's ceiling is Central.  So can Central get above Redlands?  Seems unlikely.  I think Redlands stays the top at-large team in the West.  The ARCs might wind up ahead of Linfield, which makes a Linfield/Chapman game not just convenient, but seed-appropriate.  That would make a lot of folks happy.   I do think Wartburg stays ahead of Bethel- Bethel may have been the biggest loser from that Central/Wartburg game.  At the bottom of this region you've got deal with the UWO/P/L chain somehow, you've got Monmouth down there also on the fringe.  Maybe they'll stick with Martin Luther even though the criteria don't really support it.  St. Thomas, I think is closer to being ranked than maybe we thought, but I still think they've got a huge UWEC common opponent problem with the other UWs that has to block them. 
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Offline Baldini

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #301 on: November 10, 2019, 06:21:42 pm »
Good stuff, thanks for the work.

Agree that St. Thomas may well be blocked from being ranked.

Offline USee

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #302 on: November 10, 2019, 07:13:18 pm »
I think the West Rankings could look like this:
1. UWW
2. Chapman
3. Redlands
4. Central
5 St Johns
6. Wartburg
7. Bethel
8. Linfield
9. UWO
10 Martin Luther
11. Monmouth/STT

I think the committee is avoiding the STT v WIAC situation and also didn’t rank Monmouth, who is clearly better than STT on all the criteria, in part because they benefit from Grinnell’s forfeit thus not getting their terrible SOS counted as part of their number. But a win vs SNC this week could put Monmouth in at the bottom, which would be big for Wartburg and Wheaton (for 1 seed consderation)

North:

1. Mt Union
2. Wheaton
3. North Central
4. Hope
5. John Carroll
6. Aurora
7. Wabash
8. Hanover
9. OWU
10. Baldwin Wallace
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Offline E.115

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #303 on: November 10, 2019, 08:54:56 pm »
In no way would I want it to play out like this, but would Carnegie Mellon have a Pool C bid chance if they defeated Case Western Reserve (9-0)?

Best case scenario resume for then depending on how the other games end up..ending with a record of 8-2..

With wins over two Pool A league champs:
Case Western Reserve (9-1) - PAC Champ
MIT (8-2) - NEWMAC Champ

And wins over:
Washington & Jefferson 7-3
Westminster 7-3

Offline Baldini

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #304 on: November 10, 2019, 09:08:15 pm »
In no way would I want it to play out like this, but would Carnegie Mellon have a Pool C bid chance if they defeated Case Western Reserve (9-0)?

Best case scenario resume for then depending on how the other games end up..ending with a record of 8-2..

With wins over two Pool A league champs:
Case Western Reserve (9-1) - PAC Champ
MIT (8-2) - NEWMAC Champ

And wins over:
Washington & Jefferson 7-3
Westminster 7-3

It is probably safe to say that their is a zero percent chance of Carnegie Mellon making the 32 team playoff this year under any scenario.

I hope that did not sound rude or harsh because I did not mean for it to sound that way.

Offline E.115

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #305 on: November 10, 2019, 09:24:31 pm »
^ No not all all ... just seemed intriguing to think they potentially could have two regular season wins over two Pool A, conference champs (which I'm guessing there not many examples of this in the country) and not be in the Playoffs.

With that said, I hope they lose against my CWRU Spartans.

Offline tf37

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #306 on: November 10, 2019, 09:37:29 pm »
I think the West Rankings could look like this:
1. UWW
2. Chapman
3. Redlands
4. Central
5 St Johns
6. Wartburg
7. Bethel
8. Linfield
9. UWO
10 Martin Luther
11. Monmouth/STT

I think the committee is avoiding the STT v WIAC situation and also didn’t rank Monmouth, who is clearly better than STT on all the criteria, in part because they benefit from Grinnell’s forfeit thus not getting their terrible SOS counted as part of their number. But a win vs SNC this week could put Monmouth in at the bottom, which would be big for Wartburg and Wheaton (for 1 seed consderation)

North:

1. Mt Union
2. Wheaton
3. North Central
4. Hope
5. John Carroll
6. Aurora
7. Wabash
8. Hanover
9. OWU
10. Baldwin Wallace

If we are just looking at the criteria, then Olivet should be ahead of B-W and OWU.

Offline thunderdog

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #307 on: November 10, 2019, 09:38:11 pm »
North:

1. Mt Union
2. Wheaton
3. North Central
4. Hope
5. John Carroll
6. Aurora
7. Wabash
8. Hanover
9. OWU
10. Baldwin Wallace

I’m thinking Olivet makes it into the next North rankings. Higher win % and higher SOS than Ohio Wesleyan. Not that I necessarily agree with it, but according to the criteria, especially the committee’s emphasis on win%, seems likely to me.

Offline thunderdog

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #308 on: November 10, 2019, 09:40:16 pm »
If we are just looking at the criteria, then Olivet should be ahead of B-W and OWU.

Beat me by 42 seconds... ;D

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #309 on: November 10, 2019, 09:54:20 pm »
OWU will have a vRRO win over Denison when the RACs conference this week.  That may get them in there. 
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Offline hazzben

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #310 on: November 10, 2019, 10:02:06 pm »
OWU will have a vRRO win over Denison when the RACs conference this week.  That may get them in there.

When does a vRRO result no longer qualify. Assume Ithaca drops out of RR after this week. But does the committee still consider Union's W a vRRO as they consider where to slot teams this week, since they are a RRO until the new Regional Ranking is done. But then in the final poll they aren't considered a vRRO any longer? Not sure if that made sense, but hopefully you get what I'm asking.

It's a lot muddier since they don't have the "once ranked always ranked" format any longer.

Offline wally_wabash

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #311 on: November 10, 2019, 11:11:54 pm »
OWU will have a vRRO win over Denison when the RACs conference this week.  That may get them in there.

When does a vRRO result no longer qualify. Assume Ithaca drops out of RR after this week. But does the committee still consider Union's W a vRRO as they consider where to slot teams this week, since they are a RRO until the new Regional Ranking is done. But then in the final poll they aren't considered a vRRO any longer? Not sure if that made sense, but hopefully you get what I'm asking.

It's a lot muddier since they don't have the "once ranked always ranked" format any longer.

As I understand it...

This week's RRs (let's call them RR2) will harvest their vRRO data from last week's RR's (RR1).  So, Union is going to have a 1-0 vRRO on the data sheet this week. 

For the RR's done after Week 11's games (RR3), the vRRO data will come from RR2.  So after next week's games, Union is going to be back to 0-0 vRRO (assuming Ithaca or any other Liberty League team is not on RR2). 

The nat'l committee will do one more final set of rankings before they select and bracket Saturday night, taking into account the RR3 information.  Now, the the thing that I'm not entirely certain on here is if this final ranking essentially mines its vRRO data from RR2 and RR3, or just RR3.  As it has been explained to me, I think the final set that we see has both a look-back (RR2) and current (RR3) composition with the vRRO data- ultimately making RR1 the only set of published rankings that wind up not meaning much at all (aside from their contribution to RR2). 
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Offline Pat Coleman

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #312 on: November 10, 2019, 11:29:25 pm »
^ No not all all ... just seemed intriguing to think they potentially could have two regular season wins over two Pool A, conference champs (which I'm guessing there not many examples of this in the country) and not be in the Playoffs.

Beating an unranked conference champion has no particular impact on playoff selection.
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Offline hazzben

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #313 on: November 11, 2019, 12:17:33 am »
Thanks Wally, that makes sense

Offline UfanBill

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Re: 2019 Pool C
« Reply #314 on: November 11, 2019, 01:48:15 am »
OWU will have a vRRO win over Denison when the RACs conference this week.  That may get them in there.

When does a vRRO result no longer qualify. Assume Ithaca drops out of RR after this week. But does the committee still consider Union's W a vRRO as they consider where to slot teams this week, since they are a RRO until the new Regional Ranking is done. But then in the final poll they aren't considered a vRRO any longer? Not sure if that made sense, but hopefully you get what I'm asking.

It's a lot muddier since they don't have the "once ranked always ranked" format any longer.

As I understand it...

This week's RRs (let's call them RR2) will harvest their vRRO data from last week's RR's (RR1).  So, Union is going to have a 1-0 vRRO on the data sheet this week. 

For the RR's done after Week 11's games (RR3), the vRRO data will come from RR2.  So after next week's games, Union is going to be back to 0-0 vRRO (assuming Ithaca or any other Liberty League team is not on RR2). 

The nat'l committee will do one more final set of rankings before they select and bracket Saturday night, taking into account the RR3 information.  Now, the the thing that I'm not entirely certain on here is if this final ranking essentially mines its vRRO data from RR2 and RR3, or just RR3.  As it has been explained to me, I think the final set that we see has both a look-back (RR2) and current (RR3) composition with the vRRO data- ultimately making RR1 the only set of published rankings that wind up not meaning much at all (aside from their contribution to RR2).

To those of you who want to denigrate Union, somehow feeling their opponents struggles after playing the Dutchmen should lower their seeding in the eyes of the committee let me say look at this "criteria".
Union has won 12 straight. 16 of 18, 23-6 after going 0-10 in 2015 for new coach Jeff Behrman and they've avenged 5 of those losses(they haven't played Cortland since). Last season they beat then ranked Husson, Springfield and quarter finalist RPI. This year they've beaten ranked Hobart and Ithaca. They are the Liberty League champions. I'd say that's pretty impressive. They've earned respect.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2019, 01:56:37 am by UfanBill »
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